Amateur decision-making in avalanche terrain with and without a decision aid: a stated choice survey     

Pascal Haegeli  Wolfgang Haider  Margo Longland  Ben Beardmore 《Natural Hazards》2010,52(1):185-209

Avalanches pose a serious threat to recreational backcountry travelers in mountainous terrain. This study explores how the three main amateur user groups of avalanche terrain in western Canada (backcountry skiers, out-of-bound skiers, and snowmobile riders) balance recreational goals with safety concerns when choosing backcountry destinations under varying avalanche conditions. Using a discrete choice experiment (DCE), a stated preference technique, the study first examines the strengths and weaknesses in the decision process of the three amateur groups by comparing their responses with the choice patterns of professional mountain guides. The results show that the decision-making strategies employed by the respective amateur groups vary considerably in their level of complexity and the degree to which avalanche safety considerations are incorporated. Second, we examine the effects of a decision aid that preprocesses the most crucial pieces of avalanche hazard information on the decision preferences of the amateur groups in the DCE. The results show that a relatively simple decision aid can influence the decision-making process considerably and steer users towards more avalanche hazard sensitive behaviour.  相似文献   

Contamination of superficial sediments by heavy metals and iron in the Bizerte lagoon,northern Tunisia     

Amor Ben Garali  Mohamed Ouakad  Moncef Gueddari 《Arabian Journal of Geosciences》2010,3(3):295-306

According to the norms adopted by the National Network of observation of the marine life quality (RNO 1997) and US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (US NOAA 1999), the superficial sediments of the Bizerte lagoon (northern Tunisia) show a contamination by nickel, which is the probable consequence of the closeness to the industrial zone, and by lead, the result of detrital material rich in lead of the geological lands of Jbel Kchabta and Jbel Messeftine. In the lagoon southern and eastern sectors, the contamination of superficial sediments is essentially by copper, zinc, nickel and iron. This pollution is related, on one hand, to the rejections of the steelworks El Fouledh and the military arsenal, and on the other hand, to Menzel Bourguiba waste disposal. The rest of the lagoon is exempted from any metallic contamination of the surface sediments. The enriched zones in manganese and zinc correspond to the higher contents in kaolinite and in smectite. Positive correlations were recorded between the percentage in fine fraction on the one hand, and the sedimentary contents in TOC, total nitrogen and heavy metals on the other hand. The majority of the analysed elements are “argilophilous” except zinc and manganese, which are clayey organophile. These results show that this lagoon receives concentrations in anthropogenic metals that risk provoking more or less important disruptions, which are harmful and irreversible on the fauna and flora of this lagoon and on the whole ecobiological equilibrium.  相似文献   

Clumped isotope analysis of lacustrine endogenic carbonates and implications for paleo-temperature reconstruction: A case study from Dali Lake     

Jiaojiao YUE  Jule XIAO  Xu WANG  Jiawei FAN  Ben QIN 《中国科学:地球科学(英文版)》2021,64(2):294-306

Carbonate clumped isotope(Δ47)is a new and reliable geothermometer.Endogenic carbonates in lake sediments are good archives to reconstruct lake water temperature using clumped isotope thermometry.However,applications of carbonate clumped isotope thermometry to lacustrine carbonates are still scarce because the existed organic and/or sulfur contaminants in such samples interfere with clumped isotope analysis and cause notable temperature biases.Therefore,exploring an effective way to remove contamination is a prerequisite to widely applying carbonate clumped isotope thermometry to lake sediments.By pretreating fine-grained endogenic carbonates from Dali lake sediments with hydrogen peroxide of different concentrations for different lengths of time,we conducted a series of conditional experiments to seek the optimal pretreatment condition for clumped isotope analysis.Δ47,Δ48 offset and 49 parameter were obtained from clumped isotope measurements to assess the effect of contamination removal.Results showed that untreated samples("0%-0")had a very high 49 parameter.After the treatment with hydrogen peroxide,the 49 parameter was significantly reduced while theΔ48 offset evidently increased.TheΔ47,Δ48 offset and 49 parameter of samples pretreated under different conditions showed significant variability,even though the measuredΔ47 temperatures changed within a relatively narrow range(i.e.,from 17.0±1.3 to 22.8±1.6°C).Among various treated samples,the sample"3%-8"yielded a smallerΔ48 offset and 49 parameter,and lowerΔ47 temperature of 17.0±1.3°C.Therefore,"reacting with 3%hydrogen peroxide for 8 h"was suggested to be the optimal condition for removing contaminants from lacustrine endogenic carbonates prior to clumped isotope analysis.At the time when the pretreatment condition was too intense(i.e.,H2O2 concentration>3%and/or reaction time>8 h),secondary contaminants might have been generated in the closed reaction system,whose ultimately transformed state may interfere with masses 47,48.Using the optimal pretreatment procedure,we obtained reasonableΔ47 temperature changes during the last deglaciation and found a temperature decrease of about 6°C in Northern China during the Younger Dryas period.Our study demonstrates a great potential of applying carbonate clumped isotope thermometry to lacustrine carbonates for paleo-temperature and paleo-elevation reconstructions in the future.  相似文献   

Simulation of urban climate with high-resolution WRF model: A case study in Nanjing, China   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Ben Yang  Yaocun Zhang  Yun Qian 《Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences》2012,48(3):227-241

In this study, urban climate in Nanjing of eastern China is simulated using 1-km resolution Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model coupled with a single-layer Urban Canopy Model. Based on the 10-summer simulation results from 2000 to 2009 we find that the WRF model is capable of capturing the high-resolution features of urban climate over Nanjing area. Although WRF underestimates the total precipitation amount, the model performs well in simulating the surface air temperature, relative humidity, and precipitation frequency and inter-annual variability. We find that extremely hot events occur most frequently in urban area, with daily maximum (minimum) temperature exceeding 36°C (28°C) in around 40% (32%) of days. Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect at surface is more evident during nighttime than daytime, with 20% of cases the UHI intensity above 2.5°C at night. However, The UHI affects the vertical structure of Planet Boundary Layer (PBL) more deeply during daytime than nighttime. Net gain for latent heat and net radiation is larger over urban than rural surface during daytime. Correspondingly, net loss of sensible heat and ground heat are larger over urban surface resulting from warmer urban skin. Because of different diurnal characteristics of urban-rural differences in the latent heat, ground heat and other energy fluxes, the near surface UHI intensity exhibits a very complex diurnal feature. UHI effect is stronger in days with less cloud or lower wind speed. Model results reveal a larger precipitation frequency over urban area, mainly contributed by the light rain events (< 10 mm d^?1). Consistent with satellite dataset, around 10?C20% more precipitation occurs in urban than rural area at afternoon induced by more unstable urban PBL, which induces a strong vertical atmospheric mixing and upward moisture transport. A significant enhancement of precipitation is found in the downwind region of urban in our simulations in the afternoon.  相似文献   

Climate change impacts on international seaports: knowledge, perceptions, and planning efforts among port administrators     

Austin Becker  Satoshi Inoue  Martin Fischer  Ben Schwegler 《Climatic change》2012,110(1-2):5-29

Seaports are located in vulnerable areas to climate change impacts: on coasts susceptible to sea-level rise and storms or at mouths of rivers susceptible to flooding. They serve a vital function within the local, regional, and global economy. Their locations in the heart of sensitive estuarine environments make it an imperative to minimize the impacts of natural hazards. Climate impacts, like a projected SLR of .6?m to 2?m and doubling of Category 4 and 5 hurricanes by 2100, will result in more extreme events at many seaports. To assess the current state of knowledge on this issue, we surveyed port authorities from around the world about how administrators felt climate change might impact their operations, what sea-level change would create operational problems, and how they planned to adapt to new environmental conditions. The planned rapid expansion of ports reported by the survey respondents indicates that adaptation measures should be considered as ports construct new infrastructure that may still be in use at the end of the century. Respondents agreed that the ports community needs to address this issue and most felt relatively uninformed about potential climate impacts. Although most ports felt that SLR would not be an issue at their port this century, sea-level rise was nevertheless an issue of great concern. Our results suggest opportunities for the scientific community to engage with port practitioners to prepare proactively for climate change impacts on this sector.  相似文献   

车载激光扫描数据的地物分类方法     

谭贲  钟若飞  李芹 《遥感学报》2012,16(1):50-66

车载激光扫描技术可以快速获取地物表面的高精度三维信息,作为一种新的数据获取手段,已逐渐应用于地理信息系统产业中。将激光扫描数据分类是对地物进行特征提取以及建模的前提与关键。现今,针对车载激光扫描数据的分类方法还不成熟。根据城市各典型地物空间特征(激光点云在三维空间的高程、与邻近点的斜率,以及其在二维投影平面上的分布、密集程度等),本文提出一种主要适用于城市激光扫描数据的地物分类方法。首先,综合考虑车载激光数据的采集特点、车行GPS轨迹以及扫描数据中同一扫描线上相邻激光点之间的斜率关系,提取出路面。其次,对于非路面的激光点云数据,先使用基于格网化与区域分割相结合的方法进行实体划分,再通过计算地物空间形状特征的几项统计指标(外包围盒、实体高度等),对实体进行分类。最后,以海南三亚市某街道为研究区验证该方法的有效性。实验结果表明,使用该方法能成功地分出研究区的路面、建筑物、树木和路灯四类地物,并进一步在同类地物间分出不同实体。  相似文献   

贵州晚三叠世卡尼期周氏黔鱼龙(Qianichthyosaurus zhoui)性双形研究          下载免费PDF全文

何犇  马知恒  付丽红 《贵州地质》2023,40(3):249-258, 320

本文对产于贵州兴义乌沙地区上三叠统卡尼阶法郎组瓦窑段中的17件鱼龙标本进行研究,认为本次研究标本均为Qianichthyosaurus zhoui。通过对其肢骨的定性及定量分析认为,Qianichthyosaurus zhoui在后肢形态上存在性双形现象。暨雄性后肢外形窄长,雌性后肢则相对宽短;雄性的股骨比肱骨长度略长,而雌性的股骨与肱骨长度相当;雄性股骨近端和远端相较于雌性更为膨大股骨远端宽度为中轴宽度的253倍,股骨长与股骨中轴的比值较大,通常大于35;雌性股骨近端和远端相较于雄性较小股骨远端宽度一般为中轴宽度的2倍左右,股骨长与股骨中轴的比例较小,比值约为3左右雌性第一跖骨面积较小且具有凹缺,雄性第一跖骨面积较大不具凹缺。  相似文献   

The impact of ENSO periodicity on North Pacific SST variability   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Daeho Jin  Ben P. Kirtman 《Climate Dynamics》2010,34(7-8):1015-1039

The periodicity of ENSO in nature varies. Here we examine how changes in the frequency of ENSO impacts remote teleconnections in the North Pacific. The numerical experiments presented here are designed to simulate perfectly periodic ENSO in the tropical Pacific, and to enable the air–sea interaction in other regions (i.e., the North Pacific) via a simple mixed layer ocean model. The temporal evolution and spatial structure of the North Pacific SST teleconnection patterns are relatively insensitive to the frequency of ENSO, but the amplitude of the variability is sensitive. Specifically, the 2-year period ENSO experiment (P2) shows weak event-by-event consistency in the ENSO response mature pattern. This is because there is not enough time to damp the previously forced ENSO teleconnections (i.e., 1 year earlier). The 4-year period ENSO experiment (P4) has 1 year damping time before a successive ENSO event matures, so the structure of the response pattern is stably repeated. However, the event-by-event variance of anomaly magnitude, specifically responding to El Niño, is still larger than that in the 6-year ENSO experiment (P6), which has 2-year damping time between consecutive ENSO events. In addition, we tested whether the variability due to tropical remote forcing is linearly independent of the extratropical local variability. Statistical tests indicate that tropical remote forcing can constructively or destructively interfere with local variability in the North Pacific. Lastly, there is a non-linear rectification of the ENSO events that can be detected in the climatology.  相似文献   

一次雨雪的回波演变及大气结构特征   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

牛奔  魏鸣 《气象科学》2010,30(4):548-554

利用多普勒天气雷达和探空资料,对2009年3月2日南京的雨雪过程进行了研究,分析了雨雪发展的不同阶段,基本反射率场、基本速度场、基本谱宽场、VWP廓线以及大气要素垂直剖面图的演变特征,分析显示:(1)降雪过程的回波分布连续、具有丝缕状纹理,强度比降雨弱。(2)速度场西北方向有逆风区出现,逆风区持续期间降雪稳定、持续。(3)利用探空资料绘制的大气风矢与位温剖面图可较细致地分析雨雪天气的大气垂直结构特征。(4)雨雪天气过程和大气层结密切相关,K指数、沙氏指数及sθe850-500与雨雪天气的演变有着较好的对应关系。  相似文献   

Indigenous climate knowledge in southern Uganda: the multiple components of a dynamic regional system   总被引：4，自引：2，他引：2  

Ben Orlove  Carla Roncoli  Merit Kabugo  Abushen Majugu 《Climatic change》2010,100(2):243-265

Farmers in southern Uganda seek information to anticipate the interannual variability in the timing and amount of precipitation, a matter of great importance to them since they rely on rain-fed agriculture for food supplies and income. The four major components of their knowledge system are: (1) longstanding familiarity with the seasonal patterns of precipitation and temperature, (2) a set of local traditional climate indicators, (3) observation of meteorological events, (4) information about the progress of the seasons elsewhere in the region. We examine these components and show the connections among them. We discuss the social contexts in which this information is perceived, evaluated, discussed and applied, and we consider the cultural frameworks that support the use of this information. This system of indigenous knowledge leads farmers to participate as agents as well as consumers in programs that use modern climate science to plan for and adapt to climate variability and climate change.  相似文献