Long-range precipitation forecasts using paleoclimate reconstructions in the western United States     

Christopher Allen CARRIER  Ajay KALRA  Sajjad AHMAD 《山地科学学报》2016,13(4):614-632

Long-range precipitation forecasts are useful when managing water supplies.Oceanicatmospheric oscillations have been shown to influence precipitation.Due to a longer cycle of some of the oscillations,a short instrumental record is a limitation in using them for long-range precipitation forecasts.The influence of oscillations over precipitation is observable within paleoclimate reconstructions;however,there have been no attempts to utilize these reconstructions in precipitation forecasting.A data-driven model,KStar,is used for obtaining long-range precipitation forecasts by extending the period of record through the use of reconstructions of oscillations.KStar is a nearest neighbor algorithm with an entropy-based distance function.Oceanic-atmospheric oscillation reconstructions include the El Nino-Southern Oscillation(ENSO),the Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO),the North Atlantic Oscillation(NAO),and the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation(AMO).Precipitation is forecasted for 20 climate divisions in the western United States.A 10-year moving average is applied to aid in the identification of oscillation phases.A lead time approach is used to simulate a one-year forecast,with a 10-fold cross-validation technique to test the models.Reconstructions are used from 1658-1899,while the observed record is used from 1900-2007.The model is evaluated using mean absolute error(MAE),root mean squared error(RMSE),RMSE-observations standard deviation ratio(RSR),Pearson’s correlation coefficient(R),NashSutcliffe coefficient of efficiency(NSE),and linear error in probability space(LEPS) skill score(SK).The role of individual and coupled oscillations is evaluated by dropping oscillations in the model.The results indicate ’good’ precipitation estimates using the KStar model.This modeling technique is expected to be useful for long-term water resources planning and management.  相似文献   

Reflectance spectroscopy and remote sensing data for finding sulfide-bearing alteration zones and mapping geology in Gilgit-Baltistan,Pakistan     

Laeiq Ahmad  M. Tahir Shah  Shuhab D. Khan 《Earth Science Informatics》2016,9(1):113-121

Gilgit-Baltistan region is covering the northern most part of Pakistan where the rocks of the Kohistan-Ladakh island arc and Karakoram plate are exposed. The area has greater potential for precious and base metals deposits which are needed to be explored through spectroscopy and remote sensing techniques. Minerals and rocks can nowadays be identified through the measurement of their absorption and reflectance features by spectroscopic analysis. Spectral reflectance analysis is also very important in selecting the appropriate spectral bands for remote-sensing data analysis of unknown or inaccessible areas. In this study, reflectance spectra in the spectral range of 0.35–2.5 μm of different types of unaltered and altered rocks found in the Machulu and Astor areas of northern Pakistan were obtained using an ASD spectroradiometer. The fresh rock samples showed low spectral reflectance as compared to the altered rock samples. The minerals jarosite, goethite, and hematite showed depth of absorption minima in the range of 0.4–1.15 μm due to the presence of iron (Fe), while jarosite and limonite showed absorption depth at 2.2 μm due to the presence of hydroxyl ions (OH^¯). The clay minerals montmorillonite and illite showed absorption depth at 1.93 and 2.1 μm, respectively. Muscovite showed depth of absorption minima at 1.4 and 1.9 μm in some samples. Calcite showed deep absorption minima at 2.32 μm, while anorthite showed absorption features at 1.4, 1.9, 2.24, and 2.33 μm. Olivine showed a slight depressed absorption feature at 1.07 μm. The copper-bearing phases malachite, chrysocolla, and azurite showed, respectively, a broad absorption feature in the range of 0.6–0.9 μm, a small absorption at 1.4 μm, and a deep absorption at 1.93 μm. The unmineralized samples exhibited high reflectance in the wavelength ranges of 0.6–0.8, 1.6–1.9, 2.0–2.3, 2.1–2.25, and 2.4–2.5 μm, respectively, while the mineralized samples showed reflectance bands in the wavelength ranges of 0.4–0.6, 1.3–1.8, and 2.1–2.2 μm. On this basis, the band ratio combinations 7/5–4/3–6/3 and 7/5–6/3–4/3 of Landsat 8 and 4/7–4/3–2/1 for ASTER data were found to be very effective in the lithological differentiation of major rock units.  相似文献   

Contamination of soil and carrots irrigated with different sources of water in Punjab,Pakistan     

Kafeel Ahmad  Zafar Iqbal Khan  Sumaira Yasmin  Asma Ashfaq  Ijaz Rasool Noorka  Nudrat Aisha Akram  Hazoor Ahmad Shad  Abrar Hussain  Fahim Arshad  Muhammad Sher  Hafiz Muhammad Tahir  Humayun Bashir  Asma Zafar 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2016,75(5):426

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Geochemical control on spatial variability of fluoride concentrations in groundwater from rural areas of Gujrat in Punjab,Pakistan     

Maimoona Raza  Abida Farooqi  Nabeel Khan Niazi  Arslan Ahmad 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2016,75(20):1364

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Drought vulnerability mapping using AHP method in arid and semiarid areas: a case study for Taft Township,Yazd Province,Iran     

Mohammad Ekrami  Ahmad Fatehi Marj  Jalal Barkhordari  Kazem Dashtakian 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2016,75(12):1039

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A spatio-temporal three-dimensional conceptualization and simulation of Dera Ismail Khan alluvial aquifer in visual MODFLOW: a case study from Pakistan   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Anwar Qadir  Zulfiqar Ahmad  Tahseenullah Khan  Mohammad Zafar  Atwar Qadir  Mamoru Murata 《Arabian Journal of Geosciences》2016,9(2):149

Dera Ismail Khan (DIK) is situated in the Lower Indus Basin of Pakistan. The land use has been changed in the canal command area due to irrigation activities near the Indus River. To check the current status and predict the groundwater levels in the area, the unconfined aquifer has been simulated in Visual MODFLOW for a period of 35 years, i.e., from 1985 to 2020. The 2900-km² area has been modeled with a grid of 500 by 500 m and the depth set to 100 m. The aquifer in the study area has been divided vertically and laterally into three and ten zones, respectively, for the characterization. Water wells and streams were used as the sinks and hydrologic boundaries, respectively. The model was successfully calibrated in steady and the non-steady state. The simulation revealed that the whole simulation can be divided into two phases, i.e., before and after the construction of the Chashma Right Bank Canal (CRBC), whereas the results were summarized in the form of water table depth maps and groundwater budget calculations. To determine the groundwater sustainability, a conjunctive use scenario has been employed to simulate the aquifer dynamics till 2020. The simulation revealed incremental drawdowns till the end.  相似文献   

Structural setup of Ras Banas area,Red Sea,Egypt, as inferred from aeromagnetic data     

Saada Ahmed Saada  Ahmed Abdelhay Azab 《Arabian Journal of Geosciences》2016,9(15):657

This study deals with the evaluation of the structural setup of the Ras Banas area on the northwestern part of the Red Sea by using magnetic data. Different analyzing techniques were applied to achieve this goal including regional-residual separation, trend analysis, depth estimation, Euler deconvolution, horizontal gradient, analytic signal, and magnetic modeling. The results of these techniques were used to construct a deep-seated structural feature map.Lineament analysis indicates that the area was mainly affected by the NW, WNW, and NE tectonic trends. The magnetic modeling was performed along four profiles supported by Euler deconvolution, horizontal gradient, and analytic signal profiles. The modeled profiles show that the basement rocks composed of uplifted and down-faulted blocks at different depths as well as step-like structure. The basement rocks seem to be acidic in nature intruded by basic/ultrabasic dikes. Generally, the magnetic susceptibility ranges from 0.0003 to 0.04 cgs indicating acidic to basic/ultrabasic rock composition. The basement relief map shows an irregular basement surface, which varies greatly in depth from 1 to 5.6 km below sea level. The deep-seated structure map shows that the basement was highly affected by two main fault trends in the NW and NNE directions. The NW trending structures were intersected by younger left lateral NNE transform faults. These cross-faults dissect the area into a number of alternated and elongated blocks.  相似文献   

Comparative analysis of Lake Urmia and Lake Van water level time series     

Sheida Jalili  Sajad Ahmad Hamidi  Saeed Morid  Reza Namdar Ghanbari 《Arabian Journal of Geosciences》2016,9(14):644

Recent decline in Lake Urmia water level makes it crucial to consider this issue more seriously. For this purpose, comparison of water level in Lake Urmia with Lake Van in Turkey, which is in relatively similar geographic and climate conditions, can be an effective approach. To follow this objective, trend analysis, regime shift, and coherency analyses are implemented. The results showed negative trend in Lake Urmia water level for the past 20 years, while in Lake Van, the trend is positive. Moreover, correlation of the lake level variations versus the basin rainfall during three common periods, identified by the regime shifts analysis, illustrated a decreasing trend in the correlation. These changes can be attributed to non-climatic factors such as different allocation disciplines in two lake’s catchments. Finally, the coherency analysis showed significant annual and inter-annual frequencies common between the two lake levels. Herein, the short-term period relations are associated with lags, while in long term, they act simultaneously.  相似文献   

Eco-friendly smart hydrogels for soil conditioning and sustain release fertilizer     

J. Pushpamalar  S. J. Langford  M. B. Ahmad  Y. Y. Lim  K. Hashim 《International Journal of Environmental Science and Technology》2018,15(10):2059-2074

In the agricultural industry, biomass waste generated along with the production of food, is transformed into value-added products. Also, the demand for the slow or control release fertilizer is increasing to reduce the cost of maintaining the agricultural land. These issues are tackled by converting biomass waste to a slow fertilizer release vehicle and biodegradable water retention material that could reduce the cost for fertilizer application and simultaneously preserved the soil from dryness. A series of carboxymethyl sago pulp (CMSP) hydrogels were prepared by electron beam irradiation. Slow release systems were evaluated by loading potassium nitrate (KNO₃) and ammonium nitrate (NH₄NO₃) into the CMSP hydrogels. These CMSP hydrogels endow slow release property, biodegradability and a soil moisture preservation property that could find greener application in agricultural industries. The results indicate that CMSP hydrogels have a great potential as an agent for slow release of fertilizers.  相似文献   

The effect of traffic on levels,distribution and chemical partitioning of harmful metals in the street dust and surface soil from urban areas of Tehran,Iran     

Ahmad Jonidi Jafari  Majid Kermani  Roshanak Rezaei Kalantary  Hossein Arfaeinia 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2018,77(2):38

Due to the explosive industrialization and rapid expansion of the population in many parts of the world, heavy metals are released into the environment continuously and pose a great risk on human health. Street dust and surface soil samples from very heavy, heavy, medium and low traffic areas and a natural site in Tehran, Iran, were analyzed for some physicochemical features, total and chemical fractionating of selected metals (Zn, Al, Sr, Pb, Cu, Cr, Cd, Co, Ni and V) to investigate the influence of traffic on their mobility and accumulation in the environment. The pH, electrical conductivity (EC), carbonates and organic carbon contents were similar in soil and dust samples from the areas with same traffic. The traffic increases EC contents in dust/soil matrixes, but has no effect on concentrations of metals in soil samples. Rises in metal levels with traffic were found in dust samples. Moreover, the traffic increases the percentage of both acid-soluble and reducible fractions, which are related to Pb and Zn. The mobilization of Cu, Zn, Pb, Cr in dust samples was easier than in soil. The speciation of metals except Cd is mainly affected by physicochemical features in soil, though total metals affected the speciation in dust samples (except chromium and nickel).  相似文献