基于边际效应分析的海洋资源环境承载力评估          下载免费PDF全文

李爱  杨正先 《海洋开发与管理》2018,35(4):44-50

海洋资源环境的开发利用可视为将海洋资源环境作为生产投入要素的广义生产行为,因此受边际效应递减规律的制约。本研究基于资源环境边际效应的经济学视角,以对海洋资源环境破坏较大的填海造地建设为研究重点,通过基于GIS的海洋资源环境边际机会成本评估和基于边际效应分析的海洋资源环境承载力评估模型,建立海洋资源环境承载力的评估理论和方法,重新认识海洋资源环境承载力在海域管理绩效评估和科学决策中的重要作用,为区域海洋资源优化配置提供新的方法体系;关键成果是构建基于边际效应分析的海洋资源环境承载力评估模型,模型将海洋资源环境纳入宏观生产投入要素,由宏观要素的边际收益测算承载力极限阈值,其中对海洋资源环境的市场价值和非市场价值的正确评估是承载力评估的关键。  相似文献   

不同插值方法在海域气象参数估算中的可靠性评价          下载免费PDF全文

艾葳  万继敏  崇元 《海洋技术学报》2019,38(2)

海域条件下的气象观测具有数据稀少、变化大且观测站点分布不均的特点,其插值精度受插值方法影响较大。首先对常规插值方法进行理论分析,进而选取了反距离加权法、克里金法和样条函数法三种插值方法进行了插值实验和精度分析。根据渤海湾某区域的气象历史数据,采用不同方法绘制了温度、压强和湿度的插值平面图,并基于交叉验证的方式对各插值方法进行了对比,给出了不同方法的插值估算可靠性评价。结果表明:温度、压强和湿度的插值精度均是基于反距离加权法的插值结果最优(MAE_(温度)=2.42,RMSE_(温度)=1.92,MAE_(压强)=2.05,RMSE_(压强)=1.30,MAE_(湿度)=11.394, RMSE_(压强)=6.43),同时基于反距离加权法的图形绘制可视化效果也要优于其他两种方法。研究结果可为海域气象参数估算提供理论和实践依据。  相似文献   

2018?2019年舟山近海浮游动物群落结构春季年际变化及其与水团的关系   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

王慧君  许永久  俞存根  章寒  张洪亮  蒋日进  梁君  郭爱  朱文斌  徐开达  刘连为  王皓学 《海洋学报》2020,42(6):90-100

根据2018?2019年春季两个航次在舟山近海进行的浮游生物调查结果，对舟山近海的浮游动物群落结构(类群组成、优势种数量)年际变化进行了研究，利用典范对应分析(Canonical Correspondence Analysis, CCA)研究了两年春季浮游动物类群组成差异、优势种变化的原因，初步探讨了春季浮游动物群落结构动态变化的机制。结果表明:根据表层温度(Sea Surface Temperature，SST)、表层盐度(Sea Surface Salinity，SSS)的聚类分析，将该区域分为3个水团:杭州湾内水团(I区)、舟山本岛上升流水团II区)、舟山近海水团(III区)。不同水团对浮游动物类群组成影响显著，引起2018年和2019年春季3个水团区差异的主要贡献种(贡献率>10%)均为中华哲水蚤，同一水团两年间年际差异的贡献种如下:I区为捷氏歪水蚤(56.91%)和真刺唇角水蚤(12.34%)；II区为中华哲水蚤(72.64%)、五角水母(13.35%)；III区为中华哲水蚤(41.93%)、夜光虫(22.94%)。CCA分析表明，第1 CCA轴(CCA1)和第2 CCA轴(CCA2)共解释了两年春季浮游动物优势种累计方差的46.14%和物种?环境累计方差的97.82%。CCA1主要反映了空间(近海水团和湾内水团)的差异。CCA2主要反映了2018年和2019年站位的年际差异。盐度是影响春季浮游动物群落结构空间差异的主要因素，而温度、叶绿素a浓度是春季浮游动物群落结构年际差异的主要因素。  相似文献   

Regional extreme‐dry‐spell frequency analysis using the L‐moments method in the middle reaches of the Yellow River Basin,China          下载免费PDF全文

Dun‐Xian She  Jun Xia  Dan Zhang  Ai‐Zhong Ye  Aditya Sood 《水文研究》2014,28(17):4694-4707

In this research, the regional extreme‐dry‐spell frequency in the middle reaches of the Yellow River Basin (YRB) is studied by the L‐moments method. The research area has been divided into three subregions (regions 1, 2 and 3), which have been identified as homogenous regions. The results of a goodness‐of‐fit test indicate that a generalized normal distribution is the optimal regional model for regions 1 and 2 whereas a generalized Pareto distribution is the optimal regional model for region 3. The return period analysis figures out that the maximum length‐of‐dry‐spell (MxDS) values increase from south to north in the southern part and increase from northeast to southwest in the northern part of the middle reaches of the YRB under different return periods. The increments of quantiles of dry spell under different return levels indicate that drought risk in region 1 is higher than that in regions 2 and 3. The analysis of the occurrence day of MxDS shows that MxDS mostly occurred during winter of 1998 and spring of 1999 in most stations during the considered period. By comparing summer MxDS events, it can be found that mean MxDS values have slightly increased in regions 1 and 2 during the last five decades. The maximum mean MxDS values appeared in the 2000s for regions 1 and 2 and in the 1990s for region 3. The atmospheric circulation shows that the positive anomaly centre in the west of North China, negative anomaly centre in the east of North China and the strong western Pacific subtropical high led to the decrease of precipitation in North China during the summer of 1997. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Baseline predictability of daily east Asian summer monsoon circulation indices     

Shucong Ai  Quanliang Chen  Jianping Li  Ruiqiang Ding  Quanjia Zhong 《Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences》2017,53(2):243-256

The nonlinear local Lyapunov exponent (NLLE) method is adopted to quantitatively determine the predictability limit of East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) intensity indices on a synoptic timescale. The predictability limit of EASM indices varies widely according to the definitions of indices. EASM indices defined by zonal shear have a limit of around 7 days, which is higher than the predictability limit of EASM indices defined by sea level pressure (SLP) difference and meridional wind shear (about 5 days). The initial error of EASM indices defined by SLP difference and meridional wind shear shows a faster growth than indices defined by zonal wind shear. Furthermore, the indices defined by zonal wind shear appear to fluctuate at lower frequencies, whereas the indices defined by SLP difference and meridional wind shear generally fluctuate at higher frequencies. This result may explain why the daily variability of the EASM indices defined by zonal wind shear tends be more predictable than those defined by SLP difference and meridional wind shear. Analysis of the temporal correlation coefficient (TCC) skill for EASM indices obtained from observations and from NCEP’s Global Ensemble Forecasting System (GEFS) historical weather forecast dataset shows that GEFS has a higher forecast skill for the EASM indices defined by zonal wind shear than for indices defined by SLP difference and meridional wind shear. The predictability limit estimated by the NLLE method is shorter than that in GEFS. In addition, the June-September average TCC skill for different daily EASM indices shows significant interannual variations from 1985 to 2015 in GEFS. However, the TCC for different types of EASM indices does not show coherent interannual fluctuations.  相似文献   

Spectral Variability of FSRQs     

Minfeng Gu  Y. L. Ai 《Journal of Astrophysics and Astronomy》2011,32(1-2):87-90

The optical variability of 29 flat spectrum radio quasars in SDSS Stripe 82 region are investigated by using DR7 released multi-epoch data. All FSRQs show variations with overall amplitude ranging from 0.24 mag to 3.46 mag in different sources. About half of FSRQs show a bluer-when-brighter trend, which is commonly observed for blazars. However, only one source shows a redder-when-brighter trend, which implies it is rare in FSRQs. In this source, the thermal emission may be responsible for the spectral behaviour.  相似文献   

响应面法优化热泵-热风联合干燥小黄鱼(Pseudosciaena polyactis)的节能参数     

孙嫒  谢超  何韩炼 《海洋与湖沼》2013,44(5):1257-1262

为了减少小黄鱼(Pseudosciaena polyactis)干燥过程的能耗, 在前期实验的基础上, 采用响应面分析法, 以单位能耗除湿值(SMER)和挥发性盐基总氮值(T-VBN)两者的综合指标Y为最终评价指标, 对热泵干燥阶段的温度A、分阶段干燥的转换点含水率B、后期热风干燥阶段的温度C三个条件进行优化, 模拟得到回归方程的预估模型。结果表明, 小黄鱼联合干燥的最优条件为热泵干燥温度A=50℃、转换点含水率B=32.62%和热风干燥温度C=44.01℃, 在此条件下比较热泵干燥(HPD)、热泵-热风联合干燥(HPD+AD)、热风干燥(AD)三种干燥方式下的样品品质和耗能, 联合干燥得到的小黄鱼干品质高于热风干燥, 而且干燥能耗降低了34.8%。  相似文献   

格罗夫山冰原岛峰高程测定          下载免费PDF全文

王泽民  艾松涛  张胜凯  杜玉军 《极地研究》2011,23(2):77-81

南极内陆格罗夫山地区冰原上坐落着64座冰原岛峰,它们绝大多数的高程都未被直接测定.2010年中国第26次南极科学考察格罗夫山分队,通过精密测绘方法测定了梅森峰、威尔逊岭的高程,并发现梅森峰是格罗夫山地区的最高峰.由于梅森峰、威尔逊岭四壁陡峭,难以攀登,为确保测量的精确性,首先在梅森峰附近的冰面上选取了3个基准点,采用G...  相似文献   

红黏土承载比的土团尺寸效应研究     

谈云志  郑爱  吴翩  付伟 《岩土力学》2013,34(5):1242-1246

高液限红黏土用于路基填筑时,因其不良的水理特性,需要掺石灰或水泥改良。但红黏土成团现象十分突出,进行灰土拌和时不易达到均匀状态,影响预期改良效果。通过对不同直径的红黏土土团及石灰改良土土团进行承载比试验,结果表明：干密度随着土团直径尺寸的增大呈现先增大后减小的特征,红黏土和石灰土的最大干密度对应的土团直径处在0.2～ 5 mm范围内;而最大承载比CBR值对应的土团直径分别处在5～10 mm和2～5 mm的范围内。石灰土和红黏土的吸水率、膨胀率均随着土团尺寸的增大,呈现先减小后增大的整体变化趋势。在2～10 mm的范围内,两种土的膨胀量最小。石灰改良只对直径小于5 mm的土团的膨胀特性起到明显的抑制作用。可见,现场施工中严格控制土团的大小对保证土体的强度和水稳定性具有十分重要的意义。  相似文献   

石灰稳定红黏土强度的长期碳化效应   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

谈云志  喻波  郑爱  付伟  张华  万智 《岩土力学》2013,34(Z1):73-79

碳化效应是石灰稳定土强度增长机理之一,但长期的碳化作用是否对其强度一直起促进作用？如果没有压实作用,碳化效果到底如何？这些关键问题还没有得到充分的论证。采用灰土拌和后击实养护和养护后再击实的不同制样方法,通过承载比CBR试验,探讨压实作用对碳化效应的影响。制备4种初始含水率的击实试样,开展碳酸溶液和纯水浸泡下的CBR试验,论证长期碳化对石灰稳定土强度的作用效果。结果表明,自然养护90 d后再击实试样的CBR值明显低于击实后养护的试样;初始含水率为34%时前者约为后者的12倍。另外,碳酸溶液浸泡15 d后的试样CBR值均小于纯水浸泡的试样CBR值,但初始含水率越大其影响程度越小,当初始含水率大于34%后两者之间的强度基本没有差别。为进一步佐证长期碳化作用能弱化石灰稳定土的强度,开展不同浸泡时间的无侧限抗压强度试验,发现石灰土的强度呈现先增大后减少的变化趋势,再次证实长期的碳化作用弱化石灰稳定土的强度。最后,利用热重分析法测试经过碳酸溶液浸泡前后的石灰稳定土,发现长期碳化溶解了部分石灰土中的碳酸钙和硅酸盐类胶结物。借助扫描电镜图片和孔隙尺寸分布曲线,从微观角度揭示不同击实和养护方式对石灰稳定土强度的影响机制。  相似文献