Optimization of nonconventional wells under uncertainty using statistical proxies     

Vincent Artus  Louis J. Durlofsky  Jérôme Onwunalu  Khalid Aziz 《Computational Geosciences》2006,10(4):389-404

The determination of the optimal type and placement of a nonconventional well in a heterogeneous reservoir represents a challenging optimization problem. This determination is significantly more complicated if uncertainty in the reservoir geology is included in the optimization. In this study, a genetic algorithm is applied to optimize the deployment of nonconventional wells. Geological uncertainty is accounted for by optimizing over multiple reservoir models (realizations) subject to a prescribed risk attitude. To reduce the excessive computational requirements of the base method, a new statistical proxy (which provides fast estimates of the objective function) based on cluster analysis is introduced into the optimization process. This proxy provides an estimate of the cumulative distribution function (CDF) of the scenario performance, which enables the quantification of proxy uncertainty. Knowledge of the proxy-based performance estimate in conjunction with the proxy CDF enables the systematic selection of the most appropriate scenarios for full simulation. Application of the overall method for the optimization of monobore and dual-lateral well placement demonstrates the performance of the hybrid optimization procedure. Specifically, it is shown that by simulating only 10% or 20% of the scenarios (as determined by application of the proxy), optimization results very close to those achieved by simulating all cases are obtained.  相似文献   

Variscan to eo-Alpine events recorded in European lower-crust zircons sampled from the French Massif Central and Corsica, France     

Philippe Rossi  Alain Cocherie  C. Mark Fanning  tienne Deloule 《Lithos》2006,87(3-4):235-260

Ion-microprobe U–Pb zircon dating of lower-crust metasedimentary granulite are reported on samples from two localities in Europe in order to determine (a) how this environment recorded the Variscan and eo-Alpine events, and (b) whether the transition between the two orogenic cycles was continuous or separated by a gap. The samples come from enclaves hosted by Miocene volcanoes at Bournac in the French Massif Central, and from the granulitic metasedimentary basement of the Alpine Santa Lucia nappe in Corsica, on the South European paleomargin of the Ligurian branch of the Tethys Sea. The zircon ages from Bournac range between 630 and 430 Ma and between 380 and 150 Ma with a major frequency peak at 285 Ma; the zircons older than 430 Ma are interpreted as detrital, whereas those younger than 380 Ma are considered to have formed by metamorphic processes after burial in the lower crust. Zircon ages from Santa Lucia range from to 356 to 157 Ma, with exception of one inherited Archean grain, and are interpreted like the younger Bournac zircons as having been formed by metamorphic processes.

In a granulite metamorphic environment, as opposed to an anatectic environment, new zircon growth can occur in the solid state. Once Zr has been incorporated into zircon, however, it is difficult to remobilize without dissolution; thus Zr available for new zircon growth must result from the breakdown of Zr-bearing minerals during prograde and/or retrograde events. In this light, the U–Pb zircon-age probability curves are interpreted as markers for major tectonometamorphic events, as suggested by the close correspondence between peaks in the curve and geological events recorded in the upper-crust, such as magma emplacement and basin subsidence.

Evidence of a tectonometamorphic gap between the Variscan and Alpine orogeneses is provided by the Santa Lucia zircon-age probability curve, which reveals a probable interlude during the Variscan–Alpine transition between 240 and 210 Ma. Here, the peak at 240 Ma is interpreted as the very beginning of crustal extension and the low at 210 Ma as a period of quiescence prior to the formation of an active margin and oceanization.  相似文献   

Will the river Irtysh survive the year 2030? Impact of long-term unsuitable land use and water management of the upper stretch of the river catchment (North Kazakhstan)     

Zbyněk Hrkal  Alain Gadalia  Pierre Rigaudiere 《Environmental Geology》2006,50(5):717-723

The Irtysh river basin all the way from river spring in China across Kazakhstan as far as the Russian part of Siberia is among the most ecologically endangered and affected regions on our planet. The study provides a summary of the historical reasons for anthropological interventions in this area, which began with the construction of plants of the military—industrial complexes in the forties of the last century during World War II. These plants have a major share in extreme high concentrations of heavy metals in surface as well in groundwaters locally. The Semipalatinsk nuclear polygon plays a specific role as a source of contamination of local waters. The release of top secret data enabled us to gain knowledge about serious problems related to high radioactivity of groundwaters, which should spread uncontrollably through a system of secondary fissures activated by nuclear blasts. Another serious problem in this region is the quantitative aspect of contamination. Model simulations of water balance indicate that large industrial development in the spring area in China and continuously increasing water consumption in Kazakhstan may lead to desiccation of the lower stretch of this large river in Siberia during the summer months of 2030.  相似文献   

Risk assessment of groundwater pollution using sensitivity analysis and a worst-case scenario analysis   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5  

Marijke Huysmans  Tamás Madarász  Alain Dassargues 《Environmental Geology》2006,50(2):180-193

This paper illustrates how sensitivity analysis and a worst-case scenario analysis can be useful tools in risk assessment of groundwater pollution. The approach is applied to a study area in Hungary with several known groundwater pollution sources and nearby drinking water production wells. The main concern is whether the contamination sources threaten the drinking water wells of the area. A groundwater flow and transport model is set up to answer this question. Due to limited data availability, the results of this model are associated with large uncertainty. Sensitivity analysis and a worst-case scenario analysis are applied to estimate this uncertainty and build confidence in the model results.  相似文献   

地下圆形衬砌隧道对沿线地震动的影响(II):数值结果   总被引：5，自引：3，他引：5  

梁建文  纪晓东  Vincent W Lee 《岩土力学》2005,26(5):687-692

利用地下圆形衬砌隧道对入射平面P波和SV波散射级数解答，定量分析了入射波长、入射角度、隧道直径、衬砌刚度等因素对沿线地表位移放大作用的影响。计算结果表明，当入射频率较低时，地下隧道的存在对地表位移幅值影响不大；而当入射频率较高时，地表位移幅值可以达到无隧道情况的4．5倍以上；衬砌情况下地表位移幅值可以高出非衬砌情况的87．8％。建议在地铁的规划设计中考虑地下隧道的建设对隧道沿线设计地震动的影响。  相似文献   

The influence of the coast on the dynamics of upwelling fronts: Part II. Numerical simulations     

Pascale Bouruet-Aubertot  Vincent Echevin 《Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans》2002,36(1-3)

We investigated the dynamics of upwelling fronts near a coast. This work was first motivated by laboratory experiments [Bouruet-Aubertot, Linden, Dyn. Atmos. Oceans, 2002] in which the front is produced by the adjustment of a buoyant fluid initially confined within a bottomless cylinder. It was shown that cyclonic eddies consisting of coastal waters are enhanced when the front is unstable near the coast (the outer vertical boundary). The purpose of this paper is to provide further insights into this process. We reproduced the experimental configuration using a three-dimensional model of the primitive equations. We first show that for coastal fronts more potential energy, in terms of the maximum available potential energy, is released than for open-ocean fronts. Therefore, waves of larger amplitude are generated during the adjustment and the mean flow that establishes has a higher kinetic energy in the former case. Then as baroclinic instability starts and wave crests reach the boundary, cyclonic eddies are enhanced as in the laboratory experiments and in a similar way. However, in contrast to the laboratory experiments, offshore advection of cyclonic eddies can occur in two stages, depending on the spatial organization of the baroclinic wave. When the baroclinic wave consists of the sum of different modes and is thus highly asymmetric, the offshore advection of cyclonic eddies occurs just after their enhancement at the boundary, as in the laboratory experiments. By contrast, when a single-mode baroclinic wave develops, neighboring cyclonic eddies first merge before being advected offshore. Very different behavior is observed for open-ocean fronts. First a mixed baroclinic–barotropic instability grows. Then the eddies transfer their energy to the mean flow and the barotropic and baroclinic instabilities start again. An excellent agreement is obtained with the main result obtained in the laboratory experiments: the ratio between growth rates of surface cyclonic and anticyclonic vorticity increases as the instability develops nearer to the coast.  相似文献   

Late Cenozoic transpressional ductile deformation north of the Nazca–South America–Antarctica triple junction     

Jos Cembrano  Alain Lavenu  Peter Reynolds  Gloria Arancibia  Gloria Lpez  Alejandro Sanhueza 《Tectonophysics》2002,354(3-4)

The southern Andes plate boundary zone records a protracted history of bulk transpressional deformation during the Cenozoic, which has been causally related to either oblique subduction or ridge collision. However, few structural and chronological studies of regional deformation are available to support one hypothesis or the other. We address along- and across-strike variations in the nature and timing of plate boundary deformation to better understand the Cenozoic tectonics of the southern Andes.Two east–west structural transects were mapped at Puyuhuapi and Aysén, immediately north of the Nazca–South America–Antarctica triple junction. At Puyuhuapi (44°S), north–south striking, high-angle contractional and strike-slip ductile shear zones developed from plutons coexist with moderately dipping dextral-oblique shear zones in the wallrocks. In Aysén (45–46°), top to the southwest, oblique thrusting predominates to the west of the Cenozoic magmatic arc, whereas dextral strike-slip shear zones develop within it.New ⁴⁰Ar–³⁹Ar data from mylonites and undeformed rocks from the two transects suggest that dextral strike-slip, oblique-slip and contractional deformation occurred at nearly the same time but within different structural domains along and across the orogen. Similar ages were obtained on both high strain pelitic schists with dextral strike-slip kinematics (4.4±0.3 Ma, laser on muscovite–biotite aggregates, Aysén transect, 45°S) and on mylonitic plutonic rocks with contractional deformation (3.8±0.2 to 4.2±0.2 Ma, fine-grained, recrystallized biotite, Puyuhuapi transect). Oblique-slip, dextral reverse kinematics of uncertain age is documented at the Canal Costa shear zone (45°S) and at the Queulat shear zone at 44°S. Published dates for the undeformed protholiths suggest both shear zones are likely Late Miocene or Pliocene, coeval with contractional and strike-slip shear zones farther north. Coeval strike-slip, oblique-slip and contractional deformation on ductile shear zones of the southern Andes suggest different degrees of along- and across-strike deformation partitioning of bulk transpressional deformation.The long-term dextral transpressional regime appears to be driven by oblique subduction. The short-term deformation is in turn controlled by ridge collision from 6 Ma to present day. This is indicated by most deformation ages and by a southward increase in the contractional component of deformation. Oblique-slip to contractional shear zones at both western and eastern margins of the Miocene belt of the Patagonian batholith define a large-scale pop-up structure by which deeper levels of the crust have been differentially exhumed since the Pliocene at a rate in excess of 1.7 mm/year.  相似文献   

Editorial     

Raymond Michels  Laurence Mansuy  Marcel Elie  Pierre Faure  Vincent Huault  Luis Martinez  Jacques Pironon 《Organic Geochemistry》2002,33(12)

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Book review: L'écologie urbaine et l'urbanisme. Aux fondements des enjeux actuels     

Vincent Berdoulay  Olivier Soubeyran 《GeoJournal》2002,57(4):346-347

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Reconciling pyroclastic flow and surge: the multiphase physics of pyroclastic density currents     

Alain Burgisser  George W. Bergantz 《Earth and Planetary Science Letters》2002,202(2):405-418

Two end-member types of pyroclastic density current are commonly recognized: pyroclastic surges are dilute currents in which particles are carried in turbulent suspension and pyroclastic flows are highly concentrated flows. We provide scaling relations that unify these end-members and derive a segregation mechanism into basal concentrated flow and overriding dilute cloud based on the Stokes number (S_T), the stability factor (Σ_T) and the dense-dilute condition (D_D). We recognize five types of particle behaviors within a fluid eddy as a function of S_T and Σ_T: (1) particles sediment from the eddy, (2) particles are preferentially settled out during the downward motion of the eddy, but can be carried during its upward motion, (3) particles concentrate on the periphery of the eddy, (4) particles settling can be delayed or ‘fast-tracked’ as a function of the eddy spatial distribution, and (5) particles remain homogeneously distributed within the eddy. We extend these concepts to a fully turbulent flow by using a prototype of kinetic energy distribution within a full eddy spectrum and demonstrate that the presence of different particle sizes leads to the density stratification of the current. This stratification may favor particle interactions in the basal part of the flow and D_D determines whether the flow is dense or dilute. Using only intrinsic characteristics of the current, our model explains the discontinuous features between pyroclastic flows and surges while conserving the concept of a continuous spectrum of density currents.  相似文献