Lessons from climate modeling on the design and use of ensembles for crop modeling     

Daniel Wallach  Linda O. Mearns  Alex C. Ruane  Reimund P. Rötter  Senthold Asseng 《Climatic change》2016,138(3-4):551-566

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Erratum to: Linking the thermal evolution and emplacement history of an upper-crustal pluton to its lower-crustal roots using zircon geochronology and geochemistry (Southern Adamello Batholith,N. Italy)     

Cindy Broderick  Jörn F. Wotzlaw  Daniel A. Frick  Axel Gerdes  Alex Ulianov  Detlef Günther  Urs Schaltegger 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》2016,171(3):27

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Stromatoporoid growth forms and Devonian reef fabrics in the Upper Devonian Alexandra Reef System,Canada – Insight on the challenges of applying Devonian reef facies models          下载免费PDF全文

Alex J. MacNeil  Brian Jones 《Sedimentology》2016,63(6):1425-1457

Existing facies models for Devonian reef systems can be divided into high‐energy and low‐energy types. A number of assumptions have been made in the development of these models and, in some cases, criteria that distinguish important aspects of the models are poorly defined. The Upper Devonian Alexandra Reef System contains a variety of reef fabrics from different depositional environments and is ideal for studying the range of environments in which stromatoporoids thrived and the facies from these different environments. A wide variety of stromatoporoid growth forms including laminar, tabular, anastamosing laminar and tabular, domal, bulbous, dendroid, expanding conical, concave‐up whorled‐laminar, concave‐up massive tabular and platy‐multicolumnar are present in the Alexandra Reef System. The whorled‐laminar and massive tabular concave‐up growth forms are virtually undocumented from other Devonian reefs but were common in the reef front of the Alexandra, where they thrived in a low‐energy environment around and below fair‐weather wave base. In contrast, high‐energy parts of the reef margin were dominated by bioclastic rubble deposits with narrow ribbon‐like discontinuous bodies of laminar stromatoporoid framestone. In the lagoon, laminar stromatoporoids formed steep‐sided sediment‐dominated bioherms in response to sea‐level rise and flooding. Relying mostly on the different reef facies in the Alexandra system, a new classification scheme for Devonian reef fabrics has been developed. Devonian reef fabrics can be classified as being: (i) sediment‐laden metazoan dominated; (ii) metazoan–microbial dominated (boundstone); (iii) metazoan dominated (framestone); or (iv) metazoan–marine cement dominated. Distinction of these fabrics carries important sedimentary and palaeoecological implications for reconstructing the depositional environment. With examples from the Alexandra Formation, it is demonstrated that reef facies accumulated in a range of depositional environments and that the simple observation of massive stromatoporoids with or without microbial deposits does not automatically imply a high‐energy reef margin, as otherwise portrayed in a number of the existing facies models for these systems.  相似文献   

Shallowness of tropical low clouds as a predictor of climate models’ response to warming     

Florent Brient  Tapio Schneider  Zhihong Tan  Sandrine Bony  Xin Qu  Alex Hall 《Climate Dynamics》2016,47(1-2):433-449

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Urban seismic risk index for Medellín,Colombia, based on probabilistic loss and casualties estimations     

Mario A. Salgado-Gálvez  Daniela Zuloaga Romero  César A. Velásquez  Martha L. Carreño  Omar-Darío Cardona  Alex H. Barbat 《Natural Hazards》2016,80(3):1995-2021

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Effects of grain morphology on critical state: a computational analysis     

Alex X. Jerves  Reid Y. Kawamoto  José E. Andrade 《Acta Geotechnica》2016,11(3):493-503

We introduce a new DEM scheme (LS-DEM) that takes advantage of level sets to enable the inclusion of real grain shapes into a classical discrete element method. Then, LS-DEM is validated and calibrated with respect to real experimental results. Finally, we exploit part of LS-DEM potentiality by using it to study the dependency of critical state (CS) parameters such as critical state line (CSL) slope \(\lambda \), CSL intercept \(\varGamma \), and CS friction angle \(\varPhi _{\mathrm{CS}}\) on the grain’s morphology, i.e., sphericity, roundness, and regularity. This study is carried out in three steps. First, LS-DEM is used to capture and simulate the shape of five different two-dimensional cross sections of real grains, which have been previously classified according to the aforementioned morphological features. Second, the same LS-DEM simulations are carried out for idealized/simplified grains, which are morphologically equivalent to their real counterparts. Third, the results of real and idealized grains are compared, so the effect of “imperfections” on real particles is isolated. Finally, trends for the CS parameters (CSP) dependency on sphericity, roundness, and regularity are obtained as well as analyzed. The main observations and remarks connecting particle’s morphology, particle’s idealization, and CSP are summarized in a table that is attempted to help in keeping a general picture of the analysis, results, and corresponding implications.  相似文献   

Rice crop phenology mapping at high spatial and temporal resolution using downscaled MODIS time-series     

Alex O. Onojeghuo  George A. Blackburn  Qunming Wang  Peter M. Atkinson  Daniel Kindred  Yuxin Miao 《地理信息系统科学与遥感》2018,55(5):659-677

Satellite data holds considerable potential as a source of information on rice crop growth which can be used to inform agronomy. However, given the typical field sizes in many rice-growing countries such as China, data from coarse spatial resolution satellite systems such as the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) are inadequate for resolving crop growth variability at the field scale. Nevertheless, systems such as MODIS do provide images with sufficient frequency to be able to capture the detail of rice crop growth trajectories throughout a growing season. In order to generate high spatial and temporal resolution data suitable for mapping rice crop phenology, this study fused MODIS data with lower frequency, higher spatial resolution Landsat data. An overall workflow was developed which began with image preprocessing, calculation of multi-temporal normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) images, and spatiotemporal fusion of data from the two sensors. The Spatial and Temporal Adaptive Reflectance Fusion Model was used to effectively downscale the MODIS data to deliver a time-series of 30 m spatial resolution NDVI data at 8-day intervals throughout the rice-growing season. Zonal statistical analysis was used to extract NDVI time-series for individual fields and signal filtering was applied to the time-series to generate rice phenology curves. The downscaled MODIS NDVI products were able to characterize the development of paddy rice at fine spatial and temporal resolutions, across wide spatial extents over multiple growing seasons. These data permitted the extraction of key crop seasonality parameters that quantified inter-annual growth variability for a whole agricultural region and enabled mapping of the variability in crop performance between and within fields. Hence, this approach can provide rice crop growth data that is suitable for informing agronomic policy and practice across a wide range of scales.  相似文献   

Evaluation of Inference Adequacy in Cumulative Logistic Regression Models: An Empirical Validation of ISWRidge Relationships     

Cheng-Wu CHEN  Hsien-Chueh Peter YANG  Chen-Yuan CHEN  Alex Kung-Hsiung CHANG  Tsung-Hao CHEN   《中国海洋工程》2008,22(1):43-56

Internal solitary wave propagation over a submarine ridge results in energy dissipation, in which the hydrodynamic interaction between a wave and ridge affects marine environment. This study analyzes the effects of ridge height and potential energy during wave-ridge interaction with a binary and cumulative logistic regression model. In testing the Global Null Hypothesis, all values are p 〈0.001, with three statistical methods, such as Likelihood Ratio, Score, and Wald. While comparing with two kinds of models, tests values obtained by cumulative logistic regression models are better than those by binary logistic regression models. Although this study employed cumulative logistic regression model, three probability functions p^1, p^2 and p^3, are utilized for investigating the weighted influence of factors on wave reflection. Deviance and Pearson tests are applied to cheek the goodness-of-fit of the proposed model. The analytical results demonstrated that both ridge height （X1 ） and potential energy （X2 ） significantly impact （p 〈 0. 0001 ） the amplitude-based refleeted rate; the P-values for the deviance and Pearson are all 〉 0.05 （0.2839, 0.3438, respectively）. That is, the goodness-of-fit between ridge height （ X1 ） and potential energy （X2） can further predict parameters under the scenario of the best parsimonious model. Investigation of 6 predictive powers （ R2, Max-rescaled R^2, Sorners＇ D, Gamma, Tau-a, and c, respectively） indicate that these predictive estimates of the proposed model have better predictive ability than ridge height alone, and are very similar to the interaction of ridge height and potential energy. It can be concluded that the goodness-of-fit and prediction ability of the cumulative logistic regression model are better than that of the binary logistic regression model.  相似文献   

Evaluation of Inference Adequacy in Cumulative Logistic Regression Models： An Empirical Validation of ISW-Ridge Relationships   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

Hsien-Chueh Peter YANG  Alex Kung-Hsiung CHANG  Tsung-Hao CHEN 《中国海洋工程》2008,22(1)

Internal solitary wave propagation over a submarine ridge results in energy dissipation, in which the hydrodynamic interaction between a wave and ridge affects marine environment. This study analyzes the effects of ridge height and potential energy during wave-ridge interaction with a binary and cumulative logistic regression model. In testing the Global Null Hypothesis, all values are p<0.001, with three statistical methods, such as Likelihood Ratio, Score, and Wald. While comparing with two kinds of models, tests values obtained by cumulative logistic regression models are better than those by binary logistic regression models. Although this study employed cumulative logistic regression model, three probability functions p^1, p^2 and p^3, are utilized for investigating the weighted influence of factors on wave reflection. Deviance and Pearson tests are applied to check the goodness-of-fit of the proposed model. The analytical results demonstrated that both ridge height (X1) and potential energy (X2) significantly impact (p<0.0001) the amplitude-based reflected rate; the P-values for the deviance and Pearson are all >0.05 (0.2839, 0.3438, respectively). That is, the goodness-of-fit between ridge height (X1) and potential energy (X2) can further predict parameters under the scenario of the best parsimonious model.Investigation of 6 predictive powers (R2, Max-rescaled R2, Somers'D, Gamma, Tau-a, and c, respectively) indicate that these predictive estimates of the proposed model have better predictive ability than ridge height alone, and are very similar to the interaction of ridge height and potential energy. It can be concluded that the goodness-of-fit and prediction ability of the cumulative logistic regression model are better than that of the binary logistic regression model.  相似文献   

Long‐term temporal and spatial patterns in bioeroding sponge distribution at the Abrolhos Bank,Brazil, Southwestern Atlantic     

Fernando Coreixas de Moraes  Fernanda Cervi  Cludia S. Karez  Leonardo T. Salgado  Rodrigo L. Moura  Gabriella A. Leal  Alex C. Bastos  Gilberto M. Amado‐Filho 《Marine Ecology》2019,40(3)

Bioeroding sponges belong to the most dominant bioeroders, significantly contributing to the erosion of coral reefs. Some species are tolerant or even benefit from environmental conditions such as ocean warming, acidification, and eutrophication. In consequence, increases in sponge bioerosion have been observed on some coral reefs over the last decades. The Abrolhos Bank is the largest coral reef system in the South Atlantic. It has been affected by sedimentation, eutrophication, overfishing, and climate change, mainly affecting coastal reefs, and at lesser intensity outer ones as well. This study aimed to describe spatial and temporal patterns in bioeroding sponge distribution in carbonate substrates in the Abrolhos Bank. Photo‐quadrats were used to compare bioeroding sponge abundance between two shallow reefs: a coastal, Pedra de Leste (PL), and an outer reef, Parcel dos Abrolhos (PAB). Each individual was delimitated over the substrate by determining the sponge surface through a line connecting the outermost papillae. The study was conducted over 6 years in 2008–2009 and 2013–2016. Four species of bioeroding sponges were identified: Cliona carteri Ridley, 1881, C. delitrix Pang, 1973, C. cf. schmidtii Ridley, 1881, and Siphonodictyon coralliphagum Rützler, 1971. The distribution and abundance of species varied between the inner and outer reefs and across the years, and displayed certain selectivity for the calcareous substrates recorded. Crustose coralline algae (CCA) were the main substrate excavated by the most abundant bioeroding species, C. carteri, and represented 70% of the substrate types occupied by this sponge (CCA, coral overgrown by CCA and plain coral). The highest abundance of bioeroding sponges observed in photo‐quadrats was 21.3 individuals/m² at the outer reefs (PAB) in 2014. The abundances or areal extents of bioeroding sponges were up to 10 times greater on the outer reefs than on the coastal ones, where sedimentation is higher and more strongly influenced by siliciclastic material. Moreover, a higher herbivorous fish biomass has been reported on outer reefs which could also influence the higher abundance of bioeroding sponges in outer reefs. During the study period of 6 years, an increase in bioeroding sponge abundance was observed at the outer reefs (PAB), with the sea surface temperature increase. As CCA have an important role in reefal cementation and carbonate production in the Abrolhos reefs, a bioerosion impact might be expected, in particular, on the outer reefs.  相似文献