Links between teleconnection patterns and mean temperature in Spain     

David Ríos-Cornejo  Ángel Penas  Ramón Álvarez-Esteban  Sara del Río 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2015,122(1-2):1-18

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Spatial variability of maximum and minimum monthly temperature in Spain during 1981–2010 evaluated by correlation decay distance (CDD)     

D. Pena-Angulo  N. Cortesi  M. Brunetti  J. C. González-Hidalgo 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2015,122(1-2):35-45

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Effects of local meteorology and aerosols on ozone and nitrogen dioxide retrievals from OMI and pandora spectrometers in Maryland,USA during DISCOVER-AQ 2011     

Andra J. Reed  Anne M. Thompson  Debra E. Kollonige  Douglas K. Martins  Maria A. Tzortziou  Jay R. Herman  Timothy A. Berkoff  Nader K. Abuhassan  Alexander Cede 《Journal of Atmospheric Chemistry》2015,72(3-4):455-482

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Trends and correlations in annual extreme precipitation indices for mainland Portugal, 1941–2007     

M. Isabel P. de Lima  Fátima Espírito Santo  Alexandre M. Ramos  Ricardo M. Trigo 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2015,119(1-2):55-75

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Climate impacts of the NAO are sensitive to how the NAO is defined     

Lucie Pokorná  Radan Huth 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2015,119(3-4):639-652

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On using a generalized linear model to downscale daily precipitation for the center of Portugal: an analysis of trends and extremes     

Mário Pulquério  Pedro Garrett  Filipe Duarte Santos  Maria João Cruz 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2015,120(1-2):147-158

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The climate in Zafra from 1750 to 1840: precipitation     

M. I. Fernández-Fernández  M. C. Gallego  F. Domínguez-Castro  R. M. Trigo  J. M. Vaquero 《Climatic change》2015,129(1-2):267-280

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Added-value from initialization in predictions of Atlantic multi-decadal variability     

J.?García-SerranoEmail author  V.?Guemas  F.?J.?Doblas-Reyes 《Climate Dynamics》2015,44(9-10):2539-2555

Identifying regions sensitive to external radiative changes, including anthropogenic (sulphate aerosols and greenhouse gases) and natural (volcanoes and solar variations) forcings, is important to formulate actionable information at multi-year time-scales. Internally-generated climate variability can overcome this radiative forcing, especially at regional level, so that detecting the areas for this potential dominance is likewise critical for decadal prediction. This work aims to clarify where each contribution has the largest effect on North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) predictions in relation to the Atlantic multi-decadal variability (AMV). Initialized decadal hindcasts and radiatively-forced historical simulations from the fifth phase of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project are analysed to assess multi-year skill of the AMV. The initialized hindcasts reproduce better the phase of the AMV index fluctuations. The radiatively-forced component consists of a residual positive trend, although its identification is ambiguous. Initialization reduces the inter-model spread when estimating the level of AMV skill, thus reducing its uncertainty. Our results show a skilful performance of the initialized hindcasts in capturing the AMV-related SST anomalies over the subpolar gyre and Labrador Sea regions, as well as in the eastern subtropical basin, and the inability of the radiatively-forced historical runs to simulate the horseshoe-like AMV signature over the North Atlantic. Initialization outperforms empirical predictions based on persistence beyond 1–4 years ahead, suggesting that ocean dynamics play a role in the AMV predictability beyond the thermal inertia. The initialized hindcasts are also more skilful at reproducing the observed AMV teleconnection to the West African monsoon. The impact of the start date frequency is also described, showing that the standard of 5-year interval between start dates yields the main features of the AMV skill that are robustly detected in hindcasts with yearly start date sampling. This work updates previous studies, complementing them, and concludes that skilful initialized multi-model forecasts of the AMV-related climate variability can be formulated, improving uninitialized projections, until 3–6 years ahead.  相似文献   

Effect of snow cover on pan-Arctic permafrost thermal regimes     

Hotaek Park  Alexander N. Fedorov  Mikhail N. Zheleznyak  Pavel Y. Konstantinov  John E. Walsh 《Climate Dynamics》2015,44(9-10):2873-2895

This study quantitatively evaluated how insulation by snow depth (SND) affected the soil thermal regime and permafrost degradation in the pan-Arctic area, and more generally defined the characteristics of soil temperature (T_SOIL) and SND from 1901 to 2009. This was achieved through experiments performed with the land surface model CHANGE to assess sensitivity to winter precipitation as well as air temperature. Simulated T_SOIL, active layer thickness (ALT), SND, and snow density were generally comparable with in situ or satellite observations at large scales and over long periods. Northernmost regions had snow that remained relatively stable and in a thicker state during the past four decades, generating greater increases in T_SOIL. Changes in snow cover have led to changes in the thermal state of the underlying soil, which is strongly dependent on both the magnitude and the timing of changes in snowfall. Simulations of the period 2001–2009 revealed significant differences in the extent of near-surface permafrost, reflecting differences in the model’s treatment of meteorology and the soil bottom boundary. Permafrost loss was greater when SND increased in autumn rather than in winter, due to insulation of the soil resulting from early cooling. Simulations revealed that T_SOIL tended to increase over most of the pan-Arctic from 1901 to 2009, and that this increase was significant in northern regions, especially in northeastern Siberia where SND is responsible for 50 % or more of the changes in T_SOIL at a depth of 3.6 m. In the same region, ALT also increased at a rate of approximately 2.3 cm per decade. The most sensitive response of ALT to changes in SND appeared in the southern boundary regions of permafrost, in contrast to permafrost temperatures within the 60°N–80°N region, which were more sensitive to changes in snow cover. Finally, our model suggests that snow cover contributes to the warming of permafrost in northern regions and could play a more important role under conditions of future Arctic warming.  相似文献   

A minimal dynamical model for tidal synchronization and orbit circularization     

József Vanyó  Bruno Escribano  Julyan H. E. Cartwright  Diego L. González  Oreste Piro  Tamás Tél 《Celestial Mechanics and Dynamical Astronomy》2011,109(2):181-200

We study tidal synchronization and orbit circularization in a minimal model that takes into account only the essential ingredients of tidal deformation and dissipation in the secondary body. In previous work we introduced the model (Escribano et al. in Phys. Rev. E, 78:036216, 2008); here we investigate in depth the complex dynamics that can arise from this simplest model of tidal synchronization and orbit circularization. We model an extended secondary body of mass m by two point masses of mass m/2 connected with a damped spring. This composite body moves in the gravitational field of a primary of mass M ≫ m located at the origin. In this simplest case oscillation and rotation of the secondary are assumed to take place in the plane of the Keplerian orbit. The gravitational interactions of both point masses with the primary are taken into account, but that between the point masses is neglected. We perform a Taylor expansion on the exact equations of motion to isolate and identify the different effects of tidal interactions. We compare both sets of equations and study the applicability of the approximations, in the presence of chaos. We introduce the resonance function as a resource to identify resonant states. The approximate equations of motion can account for both synchronization into the 1:1 spin-orbit resonance and the circularization of the orbit as the only true asymptotic attractors, together with the existence of relatively long-lived metastable orbits with the secondary in p:q (p and q being co-prime integers) synchronous rotation.  相似文献