An ensemble approach for the analysis of extreme rainfall under climate change in Naples (Italy)     

Roberta Padulano  Alfredo Reder  Guido Rianna 《水文研究》2019,33(14):2020-2036

In the present paper, an ensemble approach is proposed to estimate possible modifications caused by climate changes in the extreme precipitation regime, with the rain gauge Napoli Servizio Idrografico (Naples, Italy) chosen as test case. The proposed research, focused on the analysis of extremes on the basis of climate model simulations and rainfall observations, is structured in several consecutive steps. In the first step, all the dynamically downscaled EURO‐CORDEX simulations at about 12 km horizontal resolution are collected for the current period 1971–2000 and the future period 2071–2100, for the RCP4.5 and the RCP8.5 concentration scenarios. In the second step, the significance of climate change effects on extreme precipitation is statistically tested by comparing current and future simulated data and bias‐correction is performed by means of a novel approach based on a combination of simple delta change and quantile delta mapping, in compliance with the storm index method. In the third step, two different ensemble models are proposed, accounting for the variabilities given by the use of different climate models and for their hindcast performances. Finally, the ensemble models are used to build novel intensity–duration–frequency curves, and their effects on the early warning system thresholds for the area of interest are evaluated.  相似文献   

La scintillazione delle stelle nella previsione del tempo     

Dott. Carlo Alfredo Murri 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1944,6(1-2):135-146

Riassunto Richiamate brevemente le conoscenze fondamentali sulla scintillizzazione stellare, si espongono i principi generali di un procedimento inteso a ricavare elementi d'integrazione alle osservazioni sinottiche per la formulazione del presagio meteorico locale, partendo dalla accurata e sistematica misura della scintillazione stessa. Lo studio ha carattere preliminare, contenendo considerazioni generali la cui applicazione dovrà trovare conferma dallo sviluppo delle relative osservazioni.

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Zusammenfassung Nach einem Überblick über die Entwicklung unserer Kenntnissen zur Erklärung des Funkelns der Sterne, gibt der Verf. die allgemeinen Richtlinien einer Methode, welche, stützend auf systematischen Beobachtungen dieser Erscheinung, die synoptischen Verfahren der Wettervorhersage unterstützen und ergänzen kann. Die Schrift gilt als vorläuflge Mitteilung, besonders in Anbetrachtung der Notwendigkeit einer entsprechenden Entwicklung und Verfeinerung der Beobachtungen.

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1D elastic full‐waveform inversion and uncertainty estimation by means of a hybrid genetic algorithm–Gibbs sampler approach          下载免费PDF全文

Mattia Aleardi  Alfredo Mazzotti 《Geophysical Prospecting》2017,65(1):64-85

Stochastic optimization methods, such as genetic algorithms, search for the global minimum of the misfit function within a given parameter range and do not require any calculation of the gradients of the misfit surfaces. More importantly, these methods collect a series of models and associated likelihoods that can be used to estimate the posterior probability distribution. However, because genetic algorithms are not a Markov chain Monte Carlo method, the direct use of the genetic‐algorithm‐sampled models and their associated likelihoods produce a biased estimation of the posterior probability distribution. In contrast, Markov chain Monte Carlo methods, such as the Metropolis–Hastings and Gibbs sampler, provide accurate posterior probability distributions but at considerable computational cost. In this paper, we use a hybrid method that combines the speed of a genetic algorithm to find an optimal solution and the accuracy of a Gibbs sampler to obtain a reliable estimation of the posterior probability distributions. First, we test this method on an analytical function and show that the genetic algorithm method cannot recover the true probability distributions and that it tends to underestimate the true uncertainties. Conversely, combining the genetic algorithm optimization with a Gibbs sampler step enables us to recover the true posterior probability distributions. Then, we demonstrate the applicability of this hybrid method by performing one‐dimensional elastic full‐waveform inversions on synthetic and field data. We also discuss how an appropriate genetic algorithm implementation is essential to attenuate the “genetic drift” effect and to maximize the exploration of the model space. In fact, a wide and efficient exploration of the model space is important not only to avoid entrapment in local minima during the genetic algorithm optimization but also to ensure a reliable estimation of the posterior probability distributions in the subsequent Gibbs sampler step.  相似文献   

Contamination source detection in water distribution networks using belief propagation     

Ortega  Ernesto  Braunstein  Alfredo  Lage-Castellanos  Alejandro 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2020,34(3):493-511

Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment - We present a Bayesian approach for the Contamination Source Detection problem in water distribution networks. Assuming that contamination is...  相似文献   

Active Crustal Deformation in the Area of San Carlos,Baja California Sur,Mexico as Shown by Data of Local Earthquake Sequences     

Luis Munguía  Mario González-Escobar  Miguel Navarro  Tito Valdez  Sergio Mayer  Alfredo Aguirre  Victor Wong  Manuel Luna 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2016,173(10-11):3631-3644

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Experimental modelling of flocculation processes-the case of Paraiba do Sul Estuary     

Alfredo TRENTO  Susana VINZN 《国际泥沙研究》2014,29(3):378-390

The aggregation dynamics of fine sediments was analysed through laboratory tests using Couette and disk flocculators.It was shown that floc sizes tend to increase as concentrations grow both in fresh and salt water,in agreement with the aggregation theory,and that equilibrium diameters are slightly greater in salt environments for flocs developed either under shear stress or by differential sedimentation.Their transport and the aggregation processes were preliminarily studied in the estuary of the Paraiba do Sul River using a particle tracking model and field data.The floc breakup process by shear stress was included in the model.Yield stresses,which were determined by fractal dimensions and differential density,were accounted for.After the calibration of the collision efficiency coefficients,the numerical model was able to predict floc sizes comparable with those measured at the Paraiba do Sul estuary,which,in turn,were similar to those obtained during the laboratory experiments in the Couette flocculator.  相似文献   

A Comprehensive Method for Fractionating Soil Organic Matter Not Protected and Protected from Decomposition by Physical and Chemical Mechanisms     

César Plaza  José M. Fernández  Engil I. P. Pereira  Alfredo Polo 《洁净——土壤、空气、水》2012,40(2):134-139

The objective of this work was to describe a method for isolating meaningful and measurable soil organic matter (SOM) pools that differ in the mechanisms by which they are protected from decomposition. The proposed method is appropriate for soil C stabilization and sequestration studies. Unlike previous fractionation schemes, this procedure allows free SOM located between aggregates (unprotected C pool) and SOM occluded within both macroaggregates and microaggregates (C weakly and strongly protected by physical mechanisms, respectively) to be recovered separately, freed from the soil mineral matrix and the mineral‐associated SOM pool (C pool protected by chemical mechanisms) and thus well suited to advanced chemical characterization by ¹³C‐NMR. Briefly, free SOM is isolated by an initial density separation. Stable macroaggregates are broken up into stable microaggregates and intra‐macroaggregate SOM, which is then separated by density. Finally, intra‐microaggregate SOM is isolated from mineral‐associated SOM by a third density separation after ultrasonic disruption. The SOM dissolved during the fractionation procedure is also recovered. Results obtained on soil samples with contrasting textures suggested that clay content induces a decrease of the proportion of free organic C and an increase of mineral‐associated organic C content. Free SOM is characterized by a marked presence of undecayed organic material and biologically labile substances, such as carbohydrates and proteins. In contrast, SOM occluded within aggregates, especially within microaggregates, represents a more decomposed fraction, relatively enriched in unsubstituted‐aliphatic material, most probably lipid biopolymers.  相似文献   

Effects of seismic devices on transverse responses of piers in the Sutong Bridge   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Xing Shen  Alfredo Camara  Aijun Ye 《地震工程与工程振动(英文版)》2015,14(4):611-623

The Sutong Bridge in China opened to traffic in 2008, and is an arterial connection between the cities of Nantong and Suzhou. It is a cable-stayed bridge with a main span of 1,088 m. Due to a tight construction schedule and lack of suitable seismic devices at the time, fixed supports were installed between the piers and the girder in the transverse direction. As a result, significant transverse seismic forces could occur in the piers and foundations, especially during a return period of a 2500-year earthquake. Therefore, the piers, foundations and fixed bearings had to be designed extraordinarily strong. However, when larger earthquakes occur, the bearings, piers and foundations are still vulnerable. The recent rapid developments in seismic technology and the performance-based design approach offer a better opportunity to optimize the transverse seismic design for the Sutong Bridge piers. The optimized design can be applied to the Sutong Bridge(as a retrofit), as well as other bridges. Seismic design alternatives utilizing viscous fluid dampers(VFD), or friction pendulum sliding bearings(FPSB), or transverse yielding metallic dampers(TYMD) are thoroughly studied in this work, and the results are compared with those from the current condition with fixed transverse supports and a hypothetical condition in which only sliding bearings are provided on top of the piers(the girder can move "freely" in the transverse direction during the earthquake, except for frictional forces of the sliding bearings). Parametric analyses were performed to optimize the design of these proposed seismic devices. From the comparison of the peak bridge responses in these configurations, it was found that both VFD and TYMD are very effective in the reduction of transverse seismic forces in piers, while at the same time keeping the relative transverse displacements between piers and the box girder within acceptable limits. However, compared to VFD, TYMD do not interact with the longitudinal displacements of the girder, and have simpler details and lower initial and maintenance costs. Although the use of FPSB can also reduce seismic forces, it generally causes the transverse relative displacements to be higher than acceptable limits.  相似文献   

Geomorphic monitoring and response to two dam removals: rivers Urumea and Leitzaran (Basque Country,Spain)          下载免费PDF全文

Askoa Ibisate  Alfredo Ollero  Daniel Ballarín  Jesús Horacio  Daniel Mora  Amaia Mesanza  Carles Ferrer‐Boix  Vanesa Acín  David Granado  Juan Pedro Martín‐Vide 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2016,41(15):2239-2255

Dam removal has been demonstrated to be one of the most frequent and effective fluvial restoration actions but at most dam removals, especially of small dams, there has been little geomorphological monitoring. The results of the geomorphological monitoring implemented in two dams in the rivers Urumea and Leitzaran (northern Spain) are presented. The one from the River Urumea, originally 3.5 m high and impounding 500 m of river course, was removed instantaneously whereas that in the River Leitzaran, 12.5 m high, and impounding 1500 m of river course, is in its second phase of a four‐stage removal process. Changes in channel morphology, sediment size and mobility and river bed morphologies were assessed. The monitoring included several different techniques: topographical measurements of the channel, terrestrial laser scanner measurements of river bed and bars, sediment grain size and transport; all of them repeated in four (May, August, November 2011 and May 2012) and five (July and September 2013, April and August 2014 and June 2015) fieldwork campaigns in the River Urumea and River Leitzaran, respectively. Geomorphic responses of both dam removals are presented, and compared. Morphological channel adjustments occurred mainly shortly after dam removals, but with differences among the one removed instantaneously, that was immediate, whereas that conducted by stages took longer. Degradational processes were observed upstream of both dams (up to 1.2 m and 4 m in the River Urumea and River Leitzaran, respectively), but also aggradational processes (pool filling), upstream of Inturia Dam (2.85 m at least). Less evident aggradational processes were observed downstream of the dams (up to 0.37 m and 0.50 m in the River Urumea and River Leitzaran, respectively). Flood events, especially a 100 year flood registered during the monitoring period of Mendaraz Dam removal, reactivated geomorphological processes as incision and bank erosion, whereas longitudinal profile recovery, grain‐size sorting and upstream erosion took longer. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Ornamental plants and the production of nature(s) in the Spanish real estate boom and bust: the case of Alicante     

María Hernandez  Alfredo Morales 《Urban geography》2013,34(1):71-85

The Spanish real estate boom and bust of the 2000s caused immense economic, social, and environmental changes across the country. Massive urbanization, however, does not necessarily entail the end of nature and natural processes, instead marking a radical transformation of environments and societies. Through a political ecology approach, we analyze how ornamental species have become a fundamental part of new natures induced by urbanization in the Spanish province of Alicante. We connect the economic and ecological characteristics of ornamental plants like the palm tree to urbanization and real estate trends in Alicante. Our evidence indicates that, in Alicante, economic recession and environmental crises (manifested in the pests affecting palm trees) have mutually reinforced one other, creating a new geography of ecological desolation in many areas.  相似文献