Stochastic coupled simulation of strong motion and tsunami for the 2011 Tohoku,Japan earthquake     

Katsuichiro?GodaEmail author  Crescenzo?Petrone  Raffaele?De?Risi  Tiziana?Rossetto 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2017,31(9):2337-2355

This study conducts coupled simulation of strong motion and tsunami using stochastically generated earthquake source models. It is focused upon the 2011 Tohoku, Japan earthquake. The ground motion time-histories are simulated using the multiple-event stochastic finite-fault method, which takes into account multiple local rupture processes in strong motion generation areas. For tsunami simulation, multiple realizations of wave profiles are generated by evaluating nonlinear shallow water equations with run-up. Key objectives of this research are: (i) to investigate the sensitivity of strong motion and tsunami hazard parameters to asperities and strong motion generation areas, and (ii) to quantify the spatial variability and dependency of strong motion and tsunami predictions due to common earthquake sources. The investigations provide valuable insights in understanding the temporal and spatial impact of cascading earthquake hazards. Importantly, the study also develops an integrated strong motion and tsunami simulator, which is capable of capturing earthquake source uncertainty. Such an advanced numerical tool is necessary for assessing the performance of buildings and infrastructure that are subjected to cascading earthquake–tsunami hazards.  相似文献   

Geostatistical seismic inversion for non‐stationary patterns using direct sequential simulation and co‐simulation          下载免费PDF全文

Hamid Sabeti  Ali Moradzadeh  Faramarz Doulati Ardejani  Leonardo Azevedo  Amilcar Soares  Pedro Pereira  Ruben Nunes 《Geophysical Prospecting》2017,65(Z1):25-48

Geostatistical seismic inversion methods are routinely used in reservoir characterisation studies because of their potential to infer the spatial distribution of the petro‐elastic properties of interest (e.g., density, elastic, and acoustic impedance) along with the associated spatial uncertainty. Within the geostatistical seismic inversion framework, the retrieved inverse elastic models are conditioned by a global probability distribution function and a global spatial continuity model as estimated from the available well‐log data for the entire inversion grid. However, the spatial distribution of the real subsurface elastic properties is complex, heterogeneous, and, in many cases, non‐stationary since they directly depend on the subsurface geology, i.e., the spatial distribution of the facies of interest. In these complex geological settings, the application of a single distribution function and a spatial continuity model is not enough to properly model the natural variability of the elastic properties of interest. In this study, we propose a three‐dimensional geostatistical inversion technique that is able to incorporate the reservoir's heterogeneities. This method uses a traditional geostatistical seismic inversion conditioned by local multi‐distribution functions and spatial continuity models under non‐stationary conditions. The procedure of the proposed methodology is based on a zonation criterion along the vertical direction of the reservoir grid. Each zone can be defined by conventional seismic interpretation, with the identification of the main seismic units and significant variations of seismic amplitudes. The proposed method was applied to a highly non‐stationary synthetic seismic dataset with different levels of noise. The results of this work clearly show the advantages of the proposed method against conventional geostatistical seismic inversion procedures. It is important to highlight the impact of this technique in terms of higher convergence between real and inverted reflection seismic data and the more realistic approximation towards the real subsurface geology comparing with traditional techniques.  相似文献   

Effects of geomorphology and land use on stream water quality in southeastern Amazonia     

Hellen Kezia Silva Almada  Divino Vicente Silvério  Marcia Nunes Macedo  Leonardo Maracahipes-Santos  Elizabete Carolina Pinheiro Zaratim  Karina Pinheiro Zaratim 《水文科学杂志》2019,64(5):620-632

Water quality in streams is determined by several factors, including geology, topography, climate, and anthropogenic changes. This study aimed to assess the effects of watershed physical, morphology, and precipitation seasonality on the water quality of two streams that supply drinking water to rural settlements and urban areas in the Cerrado-Amazonia transition region. We monitored 16 physico-chemical attributes of water at six different sample locations over three years (2013–2016). Our results indicate that eight of these physico-chemical attributes did not meet the standards for safe drinking water established by Brazilian legislation. Precipitation seasonality, degradation of riparian zones, stream length, and watershed slope were the most important predictors of impaired water quality. Our results highlight the importance of restoring and conserving riparian forests in order to maintain drinking water quality.  相似文献   

Assessment of coastal management options by means of multilayered ecosystem models     

Ana M. Nobre  João G. Ferreira  João P. Nunes  Xiaojun Yan  Suzanne Bricker  Richard Corner  Steve Groom  Haifeng Gu  Anthony J.S. Hawkins  Rory Hutson  Dongzhao Lan  João D. Lencart e Silva  Philip Pascoe  Trevor Telfer  Xuelei Zhang  Mingyuan Zhu 《Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science》2010

This paper presents a multilayered ecosystem modelling approach that combines the simulation of the biogeochemistry of a coastal ecosystem with the simulation of the main forcing functions, such as catchment loading and aquaculture activities. This approach was developed as a tool for sustainable management of coastal ecosystems. A key feature is to simulate management scenarios that account for changes in multiple uses and enable assessment of cumulative impacts of coastal activities. The model was applied to a coastal zone in China with large aquaculture production and multiple catchment uses, and where management efforts to improve water quality are under way. Development scenarios designed in conjunction with local managers and aquaculture producers include the reduction of fish cages and treatment of wastewater. Despite the reduction in nutrient loading simulated in three different scenarios, inorganic nutrient concentrations in the bay were predicted to exceed the thresholds for poor quality defined by Chinese seawater quality legislation. For all scenarios there is still a Moderate High to High nutrient loading from the catchment, so further reductions might be enacted, together with additional decreases in fish cage culture. The model predicts that overall, shellfish production decreases by 10%–28% using any of these development scenarios, principally because shellfish growth is being sustained by the substances to be reduced for improvement of water quality. The model outcomes indicate that this may be counteracted by zoning of shellfish aquaculture at the ecosystem level in order to optimize trade-offs between productivity and environmental effects. The present case study exemplifies the value of multilayered ecosystem modelling as a tool for Integrated Coastal Zone Management and for the adoption of ecosystem approaches for marine resource management. This modelling approach can be applied worldwide, and may be particularly useful for the application of coastal management regulation, for instance in the implementation of the European Marine Strategy Framework Directive.  相似文献   

Cooling and exhumation history of deep‐seated and shallow level,late Hercynian granitoids from Calabria     

Alfredo Caggianelli  Giacomo Prosser  Aldo Del Moro 《Geological Journal》2000,35(1):33-42

The thermal and exhumation history of late Hercynian granitoids from Calabria (Sila and Serre massifs) has been studied using thermobarometry and radiometric age determinations. The uplift and erosion which followed contractional tectonics of Tertiary age exposed in Calabria a nearly complete section of the Hercynian crust. Field data, constrained by igneous thermobarometrical data, have enabled us to draw simplified crustal profiles. In both the Sila and Serre massifs, granitoids make up the intermediate portions of the crustal sections and are stacked as tabular intrusions for up to 13 km cumulative thickness. Shallow granitoids are characterized by a weak fabric, mostly developed in the magmatic stage, whereas deep‐seated granitoids display a strong fabric developed in the magmatic state and, with decreasing temperatures, in the subsolidus state. The intrusive bodies were emplaced at 300–290 Ma, at a time when the Calabrian crust was undergoing extensional tectonics and crustal thinning. The subsequent post‐Hercynian evolution is recorded by Rb‐Sr dates of micas and fission track ages of zircon and apatite obtained from granitoids emplaced at different depths. A decrease in Rb‐Sr and fission track ages is observed as depth of emplacement increases. Data on the post‐Hercynian geological evolution of Calabria were used to model in three stages the cooling and exhumation history of deep‐seated and shallow granitoids. The first stage, in Permian to Triassic times, was characterized by slow erosion. It was followed by a second stage of extensional tectonics in Jurassic times. The third stage was exhumation during the Apenninic Orogeny. The model has generated two P–T–t arrays, one for deep‐seated and the other for shallow granitoids of the Serre massif. The T–t paths suggest that the dates of micas, zircon and apatite are cooling ages. They also show that deep‐seated granitoids remained at temperatures above the brittle–plastic transition for a long time, whereas shallow granitoids cooled rapidly. Distinct P–T–t paths explain why deep‐seated and shallow granitoids display different fabric and microstructural features. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献