Interannual climate variability in South America: impacts on seasonal precipitation, extreme events, and possible effects of climate change   总被引：8，自引：7，他引：1  

Alice M. Grimm 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2011,25(4):537-554

Interannual variability is an important modulator of synoptic and intraseasonal variability in South America. This paper seeks to characterize the main modes of interannual variability of seasonal precipitation and some associated mechanisms. The impact of this variability on the frequency of extreme rainfall events and the possible effect of anthropogenic climate change on this variability are reviewed. The interannual oscillations of the annual total precipitation are mainly due to the variability in austral autumn and summer. While autumn is the dominant rainy season in the northern part of the continent, where the variability is highest (especially in the northeastern part), summer is the rainy season over most of the continent, thanks to a summer monsoon regime. In the monsoon season, the strongest variability occurs near the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ), which is one of the most important features of the South American monsoon system. In all seasons but summer, the most important source of variability is ENSO (El Ni?o Southern Oscillation), although ENSO shows a great contribution also in summer. The ENSO impact on the frequency of extreme precipitation events is also important in all seasons, being generally even more significant than the influence on seasonal rainfall totals. Climate change associated with increasing emission of greenhouse gases shows potential to impact seasonal amounts of precipitation in South America, but there is still great uncertainty associated with the projected changes, since there is not much agreement among the models’ outputs for most regions in the continent, with the exception of southeastern South America and southern Andes. Climate change can also impact the natural variability modes of seasonal precipitation associated with ENSO.  相似文献   

Susceptibility of fish to Chattonella marina is determined by its tolerance to hypoxia     

Shen M  Xu J  Chan AK  Au DW 《Marine pollution bulletin》2011,63(5-12):189-194

The harmful alga Chattonella marina has caused massive fish kills and economic losses worldwide. However, the fish kill mechanisms by C. marina have not been identified. The present study has confirmed that a significant elevation of blood osmolality is the universal response in moribund fish exposed to C. marina and the possible reasons leading to contradictory reports were identified. Both osmotic distress and respiratory impairment are important mechanisms leading to fish kill by C. marina. The susceptibility of marine fish to C. marina appears to be inversely related to their tolerance to hypoxia, with the hypoxia intolerant goldlined seabream being the most susceptible, and the hypoxia tolerant green grouper being the most tolerant to C. marina. Further studies in the marine medaka (Oryzias melastigma) showed that fish susceptibility to C. marina is directly related to susceptibility of the fish to hypoxia, but not related to its tolerance to hypersalinity stress.  相似文献   

Coupled penetrometer, MBES and ADCP assessments of tidal variations in surface sediment layer characteristics along active subaqueous dunes, Danish Wadden Sea     

Nina Stark  Hendrik Hanff  Christian Svenson  Verner B. Ernstsen  Alice Lefebvre  Christian Winter  Achim Kopf 《Geo-Marine Letters》2011,31(4):249-258

In-situ geotechnical measurements of surface sediments were carried out along large subaqueous dunes in the Knudedyb tidal inlet channel in the Danish Wadden Sea using a small free-falling penetrometer. Vertical profiles showed a typical stratification pattern with a resolution of ∼1 cm depicting a thin surface layer of low sediment strength and a stiffer substratum below (quasi-static bearing capacity equivalent: 1–3 kPa in the top layer, 20–140 kPa in the underlying sediment; thickness of the top layer ca. 5–8 cm). Observed variations in the thickness and strength of the surface layer during a tidal cycle were compared to mean current velocities (measured using an acoustic Doppler current profiler, ADCP), high-resolution bathymetry (based on multibeam echo sounding, MBES) and qualitative estimates of suspended sediment distributions in the water column (estimated from ADCP backscatter intensity). The results revealed an ebb dominance in sediment remobilization, and a general accretion of the bed towards low water. A loose top layer occurred throughout the tidal cycle, likely influenced by bedload transport and small events of suspended sediment resettlement (thickness: 6 ± 2 cm). Furthermore, this layer showed a significant increase in thickness (e.g. from 8 cm to 16 cm) related to periods of overall deposition. These findings imply that dynamic penetrometers can conveniently serve to (1) quantify potentially mobile sediments by determining the thickness of a loose sediment surface layer, (2) unravel sediment strength development in potentially mobile sediments and (3) identify sediment accumulation. Such data are an important complement and add a new geotechnical perspective during investigations of sediment remobilization processes in highly dynamic coastal environments.  相似文献   

Women/chickens vs. men/cattle: Insights on gender–species intersectionality     

Alice J. Hovorka 《Geoforum》2012,43(4):875-884

This paper is conceptually grounded in feminist–posthumanist intersectionality, offering an empirical case study that is geographic in scope, balances discursive and material elements, focuses on gender–species relations, and details dynamics of othering and privileging. It is empirically situated in a case study featuring women and chickens, men and cattle in the southern African nation of Botswana. It considers their symbolic associations with certain social realms, their spatial placements into and within particular locales, and the resulting context-specific dynamics that occur and shape their daily lives and interrelations with one another. Such socio-spatial practices are the means through which men, women, chickens and cattle become privileged and/or othered within dominant gender–species hierarchical arrangements. The paper also explores emerging urban and commercial agriculture spaces in contemporary Botswana, which empower women and chickens through increased access to land and productive activities, and increased visibility, status and value. Such empowerment remains bounded, however, given significant material, discursive and ethical implications of re-positioning within dominant structures.  相似文献   

Classification from Landsat TM of Indurated Volcanic Materials (tepetates) of the Mexican Neo‐volcanique Belt     

Alice Servenay  Christian Prat 《国际地球制图》2013,28(1):57-63

Abstract

Tepetates, altered indurated and sterile volcanic tuffs, are located among the neo‐volcanic belt in central Mexico. They are divided into three classes according to the erosion level: outcrop tepetates, discontinuous tepetates (in process of erosion), and underlying tepetates (related to fragile areas with high erosion risk). For local communities and peasants, the existence of tepetates is a heavy constraint, with the impossibility to cultivate the land as it is. In order to know the localization and extension of tepetates, we experimented with various classification techniques of a Landsat Thematic Mapper satellite image. Masking techniques were used, assisted both by a DEM and photo interpretation, in addition to radiometric segmentation to obtain a map of tepetates in a study area. The resulting map showed the location of outcrop tepetates well, in agreement with existing soil maps, but underestimated underlying tepetates and high‐risk erosion localities, due mainly to the heterogeneity of the classes at the scale used (30 m pixel).  相似文献   

The fine structure of water‐quality dynamics: the (high‐frequency) wave of the future     

James W. Kirchner  Xiahong Feng  Colin Neal  Alice J. Robson 《水文研究》2004,18(7):1353-1359

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The minimum gap-opening planet mass in an irradiated circumstellar accretion disc     

Richard G. Edgar  Alice C. Quillen  Jaehong Park 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2007,381(3):1280-1286

We consider the minimum mass planet, as a function of radius, that is capable of opening a gap in an α-accretion disc. We estimate that a half-Jupiter mass planet can open a gap in a disc with accretion rate     for viscosity parameter  α= 0.01  , and solar mass and luminosity. The minimum mass is approximately proportional to     . This estimate can be used to rule out the presence of massive planets in gapless accretion discs. We identify two radii at which an inwardly migrating planet may become able to open a gap and so slow its migration; the radius at which the heating from viscous dissipation is similar to that from stellar radiation in a flared disc, and the radius at which the disc becomes optically thin in a self-shadowed disc. In the inner portions of the disc, we find that the minimum planet mass required to open a gap is only weakly dependent on radius. If a migrating planet is unable to open a gap by the time it reaches either of the transition radii, then it is likely to be lost on to the star. If a gap-opening planet cuts off disc accretion allowing the formation of a central hole or clearing in the disc then we would estimate that the clearing radius would approximately be proportional to the stellar mass.  相似文献   

Radar observations and a physical model of Asteroid 4660 Nereus, a prime space mission target     

Marina Brozovic  Steven J. Ostro  Jon D. Giorgini  Randy Rose  Alice A. Hine  Daniel J. Scheeres 《Icarus》2009,201(1):153-166

Near-Earth Asteroid 4660 Nereus has been identified as a potential spacecraft target since its 1982 discovery because of the low delta-V required for a spacecraft rendezvous. However, surprisingly little is known about its physical characteristics. Here we report Arecibo (S-band, 2380-MHz, 13-cm) and Goldstone (X-band, 8560-MHz, 3.5-cm) radar observations of Nereus during its 2002 close approach. Analysis of an extensive dataset of delay-Doppler images and continuous wave (CW) spectra yields a model that resembles an ellipsoid with principal axis dimensions X=510±20 m, Y=330±20 m and . The pole direction is approximately located at ecliptic pole longitude and latitude of λ=+25°, β=+80° with the uncertainty radius of 10°. Our modeling yields a refined rotation period of 15.16±0.04 h. Nereus has a circular polarization (SC/OC) ratio of 0.74±0.08, which implies substantial near-surface centimeter-to-decimeter scale roughness. Dynamical analysis of our model suggests that YORP alteration of the rotation period may become evident within a few years. Nereus has two stable synchronous orbits where natural material may remain in orbit, while most asteroids observed to date do not have such stable synchronous orbits. We also find that spacecraft orbits about Nereus are feasible.  相似文献   

The morphology of galactic rings exterior to evolving bars: test-particle simulations     

Micaela Bagley  Ivan Minchev  Alice C. Quillen 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2009,395(1):537-553

The morphology of the outer rings of early-type spiral galaxies is compared to integrations of massless collisionless particles initially in nearly circular orbits. Particles are perturbed by a quadrupolar gravitational potential corresponding to a growing and secularly evolving bar. We find that outer rings with R1R2 morphology and pseudo-rings are exhibited by the simulations even though they lack gaseous dissipation. Simulations with stronger bars form pseudo-rings earlier and more quickly than those with weaker bars. We find that the R1 ring, perpendicular to the bar, is fragile and dissolves after a few bar rotation periods if the bar pattern speed increases by more than ∼8 per cent, bar strength increases (by ≳140 per cent) after bar growth or the bar is too strong  ( Q_T > 0.3)  . If the bar slows down after formation, pseudo-ring morphology persists and the R2 ring perpendicular to the bar is populated due to resonance capture. The R2 ring remains misaligned with the bar and increases in ellipticity as the bar slows down. The R2 ring becomes scalloped and does not resemble any ringed galaxies if the bar slows down more than 3.5 per cent suggesting that bars decrease in strength before they slow down this much. We compare the morphology of our simulations to B -band images of nine ringed galaxies from the Ohio State University Bright Spiral Galaxy Survey, and we find a reasonable match in morphologies to R1R2' pseudo-rings seen within a few bar rotation periods of bar formation. Some of the features previously interpreted in terms of dissipative models may be due to transient structure associated with recent bar growth and evolution.  相似文献   

Patterns and Age Distribution of Ground-Water Flow to Streams   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Edward Modica  Thomas E. Reilly  David W. Pollock 《Ground water》1997,35(3):523-537

Simulations of ground-water flow in a generic aquifer system were made to characterize the topology of ground-water flow in the stream subsystem and to evaluate its relation to deeper ground-water flow. The flow models are patterned after hydraulic characteristics of aquifers of the Atlantic Coastal Plain and are based on numerical solutions to three-dimensional, steady-state, unconfined flow. The models were used to evaluate the effects of aquifer horizontal-to-vertical hydraulic conductivity ratios, aquifer thickness, and areal recharge rates on flow in the stream subsystem. A particle tracker was used to determine flow paths in a stream subsystem, to establish the relation between ground-water seepage to points along a simulated stream and its source area of flow, and to determine ground-water residence time in stream subsystems. In a geometrically simple aquifer system with accretion, the source area of flow to streams resembles an elongated ellipse that tapers in the down gradient direction. Increased recharge causes an expansion of the stream subsystem. The source area of flow to the stream expands predominantly toward the stream headwaters. Base flow gain is also increased along the reach of the stream. A thin aquifer restricts ground-water flow and causes the source area of flow to expand near stream headwaters and also shifts the start-of-flow to the drainage basin divide. Increased aquifer anisotropy causes a lateral expansion of the source area of flow to streams. Ground-water seepage to the stream channel originates both from near- and far-recharge locations. The range in the lengths of flow paths that terminate at a point on a stream increase in the downstream direction. Consequently, the age distribution of ground water that seeps into the stream is skewed progressively older with distance downstream. Base flow ia an integration of ground water with varying age and potentially different water quality, depending on the source within the drainage basin. The quantitative results presented indicate that this integration can have a wide and complex residence time range and source distribution.  相似文献