Learning and international environmental agreements   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Charles Kolstad  Alistair Ulph 《Climatic change》2008,89(1-2):125-141

In this paper we synthesise and extend our earlier analysis (Ulph, J Risk Uncertain 29(1):53–73, 2004; Kolstad, J Environ Econ Manage 53(1):68–79, 2007) of the formation of an International Environmental Agreement (IEA) under uncertainty about the damages that might be caused by climate change and different models of learning, in which better information about these damage costs become available. Our results are generally pessimistic: the possibility of either complete or partial learning generally reduces the level of global welfare that can be achieved from forming an IEA. This suggests that information can have negative value. This may seem strange, since for a single decision-maker information cannot have negative value, because it can always be ignored. However in this case there are strategic interactions between a number of decision-makers responding to information, and it is these strategic interactions which can give information a negative value.  相似文献   

Tepexpan Palaeoindian site, Basin of Mexico: multi-proxy evidence for environmental change during the late Pleistocene–late Holocene     

Angela L. Lamb  Silvia Gonzalez  David Huddart  Sarah E. Metcalfe  Christopher H. Vane  Alistair W.G. Pike 《Quaternary Science Reviews》2009,28(19-20):2000-2016

The Tepexpan Palaeoindian skeleton was discovered in 1947 close to the former Lake Texcoco margin, in the Basin of Mexico. The find has been the object of considerable interest and discussion over the last 60 years regarding its real age and archaeological interpretation. Here we report new AMS radiocarbon dates associated with the sedimentary succession at Tepexpan with ages between 19,110 ± 90 and 612 ± 22 ¹⁴C years BP and a new uranium-series date for the skeleton with an age of 4700 ± 200 years BP that indicates a mid Holocene age. The sedimentary succession was studied in detail using: stable isotopes, diatoms, organic geochemistry and tephrochronology. The multi-proxy evidence suggests large changes around the margins of Lake Texcoco in terms of the balance between aquatic and terrestrial plants, C₃ and C₄ plants, saline, alkaline and freshwater conditions, volcanic activity, marginal reworking of lake sediments and input from the drainage basin through the late Pleistocene–late Holocene. These changes had large impacts on the prehistoric human populations living by the lake shores since the late Pleistocene in the Basin of Mexico.  相似文献   

The LOWNET Radio-Linked Seismometer Network in Scotland     

Stuart Crampin  A. W. Brian Jacob  Alistair Miller  Graham Neilson 《Geophysical Journal International》1970,21(2):207-216

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Aqueous fluids and hydrous melts in high-pressure and ultra-high pressure rocks: Implications for element transfer in subduction zones   总被引：10，自引：0，他引：10  

Jrg Hermann  Carl Spandler  Alistair Hack  Andrey V. Korsakov 《Lithos》2006,92(3-4):399-417

High-pressure (HP) and ultra-high pressure (UHP) terranes are excellent natural laboratories to study subduction-zone processes. In this paper we give a brief theoretical background and we review experimental data and observations in natural rocks that constrain the nature and composition of the fluid phase present in HP and UHP rocks. We argue that a fluid buffered by a solid residue is compositionally well defined and is either an aqueous fluid (total amount of dissolved solids < 30 wt.%) or a hydrous melt (H₂O < 35 wt.%). There is only a small temperature range of approximately 50–100 °C, where transitional solute-rich fluids exist. A review of available experimental data suggest that in felsic rocks the second critical endpoint is situated at 25–35 kbar and  700 °C and hence must be considered in the study of UHP rocks. Despite this, the nature of the fluid phase can be constrained by relating the peak metamorphic conditions of rocks to the position of the wet solidus even if the peak pressure exceeds the pressure where the wet solidus terminates at the second critical endpoint. Transitional solute-rich fluids are expected in UHP terrains (P > 30 kbar) with peak temperatures of about 700 ± 50 °C. At higher temperatures, hydrous granitic melts occur whereas at lower temperatures aqueous fluids coexists with eclogite-facies minerals. This argument is complemented by evidence on the nature of the fluid phase from high-pressure terrains. We show that in the diamond-bearing, high-temperature UHP rocks from the Kokchetav Massif there are not only hydrous felsic melts, but probably also carbonate and sulfide melts present.

Hydrous quartzo-feldspathic melts are mainly produced in high temperature UHP rocks and their composition is relatively well constrained from experiments and natural rocks. In contrast, constraining the composition of aqueous fluids is more problematic. The combined evidence from experiments and natural rocks indicates that aqueous fluids liberated at the blueschist to eclogite facies transition are dilute. They contain only moderate amounts of LILE, Sr and Pb and do not transport significant amounts of key trace elements such as LREE, U and Th. This indicates that there is a decoupling of water and trace element release in subducted oceanic crust and that aqueous fluids are unable to enrich the mantle wedge significantly. Instead we propose that fluid-present melting in the sediments on top of the slab is required to transfer significant amounts of trace elements from the slab to the mantle wedge. For such a process to be efficient, top slab temperature must be at least 700–750 °C at sub-arc depth. Slab melting is likely to be triggered by fluids that derive from dehydration of mafic and ultramafic rocks in colder (deeper) portions of the slab.  相似文献   

In situ U-series dating by laser-ablation multi-collector ICPMS: new prospects for Quaternary geochronology   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Stephen M. Eggins  Rainer Grün  Malcolm T. McCulloch  Alistair W.G. Pike  John Chappell  Les Kinsley  Graham Mortimer  Michael Shelley  Colin V. Murray-Wallace  Christoph Sptl  Lois Taylor 《Quaternary Science Reviews》2005,24(23-24):2523-2538

The capabilities and potential applications of in situ dating of Quaternary materials using laser ablation-MC-ICPMS are explored. ²³⁴U/²³⁸U and ²³⁰Th/²³⁴U can be measured with precision sufficient for dating at a spatial resolution of 100 μm or better in samples that contain as a little as 1 ppm uranium. Moreover, U and Th concentrations and U-series isotope ratios can be continuously profiled to determine changes in age that occur with sample growth (e.g. in speleothems). These capabilities additionally permit the dating of bones, teeth and possibly molluscs, which are subject to post-mortem open-system behaviour of U-series isotopes, and can be employed to elucidate processes of U-series migration during weathering and diagenesis. A drawback of laser ablation-MC-ICPMS is that it cannot in general provide U-series age estimates with the high precision and accuracy of conventional TIMS or solution MC-ICPMS methods. However, sample preparation is straightforward, the amount of sample consumed negligible, and it can be used to rapidly characterise or screen and select samples from which more precise and accurate dates can be obtained using conventional methods. Given further instrumental developments and the establishment of suitable matrix-matched standards for carbonates and other materials, we foresee that laser ablation-MC-ICPMS will play an increasingly important role in Quaternary dating research.  相似文献   

Coded spatialities of fieldwork     

Alistair Fraser 《Area》2007,39(2):242-245

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Spatial patterns of water surface topography at a river confluence     

Pascale M. Biron  Antoine Richer  Alistair D. Kirkbride  Andr G. Roy  Sangsoo Han 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2002,27(9):913-928

Understanding flow structures in river confluences has largely been the product of interpretations made from measured flow velocity data. Here, we turn the attention to the investigation of the patterns of both the average and standard deviations of the micro‐topography of the water surface at an asymmetrical natural discordant confluence for different flow conditions. Water surface topography is measured using a total station to survey the position of a reflector mounted on a custom‐built raft. To limit error problems related to changes in the water level, measurements are taken and analysed by cross‐stream transects where five water surface profiles are taken before moving to the next transect. Three‐dimensional numerical simulations of the flow dynamics at the field site are used to examine predicted water surface topography for a steady‐state situation. The patterns are interpreted with respect to flow structure dynamics, visual observations of boils, and bed topography. Results indicate that coherent patterns emerge at the water surface of a discordant bed confluence for different flow conditions. The zone of stagnation and the mixing layer are characterized by super‐elevation, a lateral tilt is present at the edge of the mixing layer, and a zone of super‐elevation is present on the tributary side at the downstream junction corner. The latter seems associated with periodical upwelling and is not present in the numerical simulations that do not take into account instantaneous velocity fluctuations. Planform curvature, topographic steering related to the tributary mouth bar, and turbulent structures associated with the mixing layer all play a key role in the pattern of both the average and standard deviation of the water surface topography at confluences. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Visualization of the turbulent flow structure in a gravel-bed river     

Alistair D. Kirkbride  Stuart J. McLelland 《地球表面变化过程与地形》1994,19(9):819-825

A novel technique for visualizing turbulent flow data from a gravel-bed river is presented. The time development of flow velocity and shear stress at three heights is displayed using a computer program. This can be used to observe how the fluctuations of velocity and shear stress interact both spatially and temporally. We highlight examples of flow events which are important for the understanding of flow dynamics. The visualization suggests that the turbulent flow-field is characterized not only by coherence over time at a point, but also by spatial interdependence between points. We suggest that this new visualization approach will assist further interpretation of statistical analyses of turbulent signals, as well as focusing future measurement strategies by providing a clearer spatio-temporal picture of the flow structure.  相似文献   

Metasomatism of a depleted granulite facies terrain in the Arunta Block,central Australia     

Alistair R. Allen 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》1979,71(1):85-98

Geochemical investigations in the Utralanama Block, an intermediate pressure granulite facies terrain in the Arunta Block, central Australia, has revealed several anomalous features, not consistent with the depletion of granitophile components generally considered to accompany granulite facies metamorphism. However, other geochemical features are indicative of depletion. The mean K₂O for the Utralanama Block is exceptionally low relative to most other granulite facies terrains, but Rb contents are comparatively high. Consequently, the mean K/Rb ratio is relatively low for granulite facies terrains as is the mean Ba/Rb ratio, whilst mean K/Sr and Rb/Sr ratios are much higher than usual for such terrains. Only the K/Ba ratio shows equivalent values to depleted terrains elsewhere.Comparison of these ratios for the three main compositional groups of rocks in the Utralanama Block reveals that for mafic rocks all the above ratios are characteristic of extreme depletion, whereas, for all but the K/Ba ratio, mean ratios for the pelitic rocks, and to a lesser extent for the quartzofeldspathic rocks approach normal crustal values or values for metasomatic rocks. The abnormally high Rb/Sr ratios of these rocks compared to average crustal rocks suggest, however, that metasomatism is the cause of the anomalous geochemical features of the Utralanama Block, and this is supported by field and microstructural evidence. Thus, Rb/Sr ratios appear to be useful indicators of metasomatism where no gross mineralogical or microstructural evidence for metasomatism is obvious, and under such conditions the K/Ba ratio may be more reliable than the K/Rb ratio for indicating prior depletion of the terrain.  相似文献   

The photo-oxidations of propyl acetates in synthetic air-HONO-NO x mixtures: Product formation studies and proposed kinetic mechanisms     

J. Alistair Kerr  David W. Stocker 《Journal of Atmospheric Chemistry》1986,4(2):263-276

The formation of products following the hydroxyl radical initiated photo-oxidations of n-and isopropyl acetates has been studied. Mixtures of synthetic air containing a few ppm of nitrous acid, nitric oxide, nitrogen dioxide and one of the propyl acetates were irradiated with sunlamps in a Teflon bag smog chamber. The decay of reactants and the formation of products was monitored by chemiluminescent analysis or by gas chromatography. The major primary products from the photo-oxidation of n-propyl acetate are acetaldehyde and propionaldehyde while from isopropyl acetate they are acetone and methyl nitrate. It was not possible to analyse for formaldehyde, an expected primary product in these systems. The nature and distribution of products indicate that a significant fraction of primary products arise from decomposition reactions of the alkoxy-type radicals generated following the initial attack of hydroxyl radicals on the esters. The derived reaction stoichiometries (molecules of NO oxidised per molecule of ester reacted) are also consistent with the proposed mechanisms.  相似文献