Markov based transition probability geostatistics in groundwater applications: assumptions and limitations     

Andreas?LangousisEmail authorView author&#;s OrcID profile  Vassilios?Kaleris  Angeliki?Kokosi  George?Mamounakis 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2018,32(7):2129-2146

Markov based transition probability geostatistics (MTPG) for categorical variables, as implemented by the methodological framework introduced by Carle and Fogg (Math Geol 29(7):891–918, 1997) and extended thereafter, have been extensively applied for the three-dimensional (3D) statistical representation of hydrofacies in real-world aquifers, and the conditional simulation of 3D lithologies for groundwater flow and transport simulations. While conceptually simple and easy to implement, conditional simulation using the MTPG approach is not limitation free. However, to the best of our knowledge, there is no study that raises such concerns in the light of theoretical arguments and numerical findings. That said, the purpose of this study is twofold: (1) present a brief and coherent overview of the basic theory, fundamental assumptions, and limitations of the MTPG methodological framework, and (2) assess its capabilities on the basis of a simple two-dimensional test-case, using large ensembles of stochastic realizations. Contrary to real-world 3D aquifers, where the actual geology is unknown, and the quality of the simulations can be assessed solely on the basis of semi-quantitative arguments using properly selected sets of stochastic realizations, test-cases allow for direct quantitative assessments based on the application of statistical measures to large ensembles of synthetic realizations. Our analysis and obtained results show that stochastic modeling of actual geologies using the MTPG approach of Carle and Fogg (1997), is characterized by simplifying assumptions and theoretical limitations, with the simulated random fields exhibiting statistical structures that strongly depend on the problem under consideration and the modeling assumptions made, leading to increased epistemic uncertainties in the obtained results.  相似文献   

SPM response to tide and river flow in the hyper-turbid Ems River     

Johan C. Winterwerp  Julia Vroom  Zheng-B. Wang  Martin Krebs  Erik C.M. Hendriks  Dirk S. van Maren  Kerstin Schrottke  Christine Borgsmüller  Andreas Schöl 《Ocean Dynamics》2017,67(5):559-583

In this paper, we analyse the behaviour of fine sediments in the hyper-turbid Lower Ems River, with focus on the river’s upper reaches, a stretch of about 25 km up-estuary of Terborg. Our analysis is based on long records of suspended particulate matter (SPM) from optical backscatter (OBS) measurements close to the bed at seven stations along the river, records of salinity and water level measurements at these stations, acoustic measurements on the vertical mud structure just up-estuary of Terborg and oxygen profiles in the lower 3 m of the water column close to Leerort and Terborg. Further, we use cross-sectionally averaged velocities computed with a calibrated numerical model. Distinction is made between four timescales, i.e. the semi-diurnal tidal timescale, the spring–neap tidal timescale, a timescale around an isolated peak in river flow (i.e. about 3 weeks) and a seasonal timescale. The data suggest that a pool of fluid/soft mud is present in these upper reaches, from up-estuary of Papenburg to a bit down-estuary of Terborg. Between Terborg and Gandersum, SPM values drop rapidly but remain high at a few gram per litre. The pool of fluid/soft mud is entrained/mobilized at the onset of flood, yielding SPM values of many tens gram per litre. This suspension is transported up-estuary with the flood. Around high water slack, part of the suspension settles, being remixed during ebb, while migrating down-estuary, but likely not much further than Terborg. Around low water slack, a large fraction of the sediment settles, reforming the pool of fluid mud. The rapid entrainment from the fluid mud layer after low water slack is only possible when the peak flood velocity exceeds a critical value of around 1 m/s, i.e. when the stratified water column seems to become internally supercritical. If the peak flood velocity does not reach this critical value, f.i. during neap tide, fluid mud is not entrained up to the OBS sensors. Thus, it is not classical tidal asymmetry, but the peak flood velocity itself which governs the hyper-turbid state in the Lower Ems River. The crucial role of river flow and river floods is in reducing these peak flood velocities. During elongated periods of high river flow, in e.g. wintertime, SPM concentrations reduce, and the soft mud deposits consolidate and possibly become locally armoured as well by sand washed in from the river. We have no observations that sediments are washed out of the hyper-turbid zone. Down-estuary of Terborg, where SPM values do not reach hyper-turbid conditions, the SPM dynamics are governed by classical tidal asymmetry and estuarine circulation. Hence, nowhere in the river, sediments are flushed from the upper reaches of the river into the Ems-Dollard estuary during high river flow events. However, exchange of sediment between river and estuary should occur because of tide-induced dispersion.  相似文献   

Direct estimation of seismic response in reduced-degree-of-freedom isolation and energy dissipation systems     

Konstantinos I. Gkatzogias  Andreas J. Kappos 《地震工程与结构动力学》2019,48(10):1112-1133

A methodology for the development of design tools for direct estimation of peak inelastic response in reduced-degree-of-freedom (RDOF) isolation and energy dissipation systems is presented. The suggested procedure is an extension of an earlier method addressing purely hysteretic isolation systems. Herein, the dynamic equation of motion is first normalised to reduce the number of design parameters that significantly affect the response. The sensitivity of normalised response quantities to the amplitude of the ground motion is then investigated through extensive parametric nonlinear dynamic analyses of isolated single-degree-of-freedom (SDOF) systems with linear viscous damping using code-based target spectra. Regression analysis is subsequently employed to develop generalised design equations (GDEs) suitable for design. Further investigations are made to address nonlinear viscous damping and the effect of the transverse component of seismic action in two-degree-of freedom (2DOF) systems under bidirectional excitation, making the procedure applicable to common bridge isolation schemes. GDEs constitute an alternative to equivalent linearisation approaches commonly adopted by codes, informing the selection among alternative isolation and energy dissipations schemes without requiring iterative analysis. The approach is incorporated in the Deformation-Based Design methodology for seismically isolated bridges in a forthcoming paper.  相似文献   

Geomorphological investigations and luminescence dating in the southern part of the Khangay and the Valley of the Gobi Lakes (Central Mongolia)     

Frank Lehmkuhl  Andreas Lang 《第四纪科学杂志》2001,16(1):69-87

Geomorphological investigations in the catchment area of the Baydragiyn river along the southern slope of the Khangay and in the Valley of the Gobi Lakes in western Mongolia provide evidence for Late Quaternary glaciations and lake‐level changes. Thermoluminescence (TL) and infrared optically stimulated luminescence (IRSL) dating of aeolian and colluvial sediments from the central Khangay place the sediments that overlie fluvial and glaciofluvial terraces in the Holocene. An age of 21 ka is determined for a sand deposit overlying the terrace that is related to the last glacial ice‐margin. Lacustrine sediments from higher beach lines in the Valley of the Gobi Lakes provide evidence for a slightly more humid period around 1.5 ka, and a larger extent of the lakes in the Early Holocene at about 8.5 ka, as also reported from other parts of Central Asia. Remnants of lacustrine sediments buried by alluvial gravel, and indicating a huge palaeolake in the basin of the Orog Nuur, however, date to the early stage of the last glaciation around 70 ka. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

On the formation of diaplectic glass: Shock and thermal experiments with plagioclase of different chemical compositions     

Jrg Fritz  Vera Assis Fernandes  Ansgar Greshake  Andreas Holzwarth  Ute Bttger 《Meteoritics & planetary science》2019,54(7):1533-1547

This contribution addresses the role of chemical composition, pressure, temperature, and time during the shock transformation of plagioclase into diaplectic glass—i.e., maskelynite. Plagioclase of An_50‐57 and An₉₄ was recovered as almost fully isotropic maskelynite from room temperature shock experiments at 28 and 24 GPa. The refractive index (RI) decreased to values of a quenched mineral glass for An_50‐57 plagioclase shocked to 45 GPa and shows a maximum in An₉₄ plagioclase shocked to 41.5 GPa. The An₉₄ plagioclase experiments can serve as shock thermobarometer for lunar highland rocks and howardite, eucrite, and diogenite meteorites. Shock experiments at 28, 32, 36, and 45 GPa and initial temperatures of 77 and 293 K on plagioclase (An_50‐57) produced materials with identical optical and Raman spectroscopic properties. In the low temperature (<540 K) region, the formation of maskelynite is entirely controlled by shock pressure. The RI of maskelynite decreased in heating experiments of 5 min at temperatures of >770 K, thus, providing a conservative upper limit for the postshock temperature history of the rock. Although shock recovery experiments and static pressure experiments differ by nine orders of magnitude in typical time scale (microseconds versus hours), the amorphization of plagioclase occurs at similar pressure and temperature conditions with both methods. The experimental shock calibration of plagioclase can, together with other minerals, be used as shock thermobarometer for naturally shocked rocks.  相似文献   

Nano-mechanical Properties and Pore-Scale Characterization of Different Rank Coals   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Zhang  Yihuai  Lebedev  Maxim  Smith  Gregory  Jing  Yu  Busch  Andreas  Iglauer  Stefan 《Natural Resources Research》2020,29(3):1787-1800

Characterization of coal micro-structure and the associated rock mechanical properties are of key importance for coal seam exploration, coal bed methane development, enhanced coal bed methane production and CO₂ storage in deep coal seams. Considerable knowledge exists about coal chemical properties, but less is known about the nanoscale to the micro-scale structure of coals and how they change with coal strength across coal ranks. Thus, in this study, 3D X-ray micro-computed tomography (with a voxel size of 3.43 µm) and nano-indentation tests were conducted on coal samples of different ranks from peat to anthracite. The micro-structure of peats showed a well-developed pore system with meso- and micro-pores. The meso-pores essentially disappear with increasing rank, whereas the micro-pores persist and then increase past the bituminous rank. The micro-fracture system develops past the peat stage and by sub-bituminous ranks and changes into larger and mature fracture systems at higher ranks. The nano-indentation modulus showed the increasing trend from low- to high-rank coal with a perfect linear relationship with vitrinite reflectance and is highly correlated with carbon content as expected.

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Ocean iron fertilization: Why further research is needed     

Kerstin Güssow  Alexander Proelss  Andreas Oschlies  Katrin Rehdanz  Wilfried Rickels 《Marine Policy》2010

Despite large uncertainties in the fertilization efficiency, natural iron fertilization studies and some of the purposeful iron enrichment studies have demonstrated that Southern Ocean iron fertilization can lead to a significant export of carbon from the sea surface to the ocean interior. From an economic perspective the potential of ocean iron fertilization (OIF) is far from negligible in relation to other abatement options. Comparing the range of cost estimates to the range of estimates for forestation projects they are in the same order of magnitude, but OIF could provide more carbon credits even if high discount rates are used to account for potential leakage and non-permanence. However, the uncertainty about undesired adverse effects of purposeful iron fertilization on marine ecosystems and biogeochemistry has led to attempts to ban commercial and, to some extent, scientific experiments aimed at a better understanding of the processes involved, effectively precluding further consideration of this mitigation option. As regards the perspective of public international law, the pertinent agreements dealing with the protection of the marine environment indicate that OIF is to be considered as lawful if and to the extent to which it represents legitimate scientific research. In this respect, the precautionary principle can be used to balance the risks arising out of scientific OIF activities for the marine environment with the potential advantages relevant to the objectives of the climate change regime. As scientific OIF experiments involve only comparatively small negative impacts within a limited marine area, further scientific research must be permitted to explore the carbon sequestration potential of OIF in order to either reject this concept or integrate it into the flexible mechanisms contained in the Kyoto Protocol.  相似文献   

Undersampling in action and at scale: application to the COVID-19 pandemic     

Langousis  Andreas  Carsteanu  Alin Andrei 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2020,34(8):1281-1283

Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment - It is the purpose of this short communication to analyze the possible caveats in the statistical interpretation of collected data,...  相似文献   

Machine learning based identification of dominant controls on runoff dynamics     

Henning Oppel  Andreas H. Schumann 《水文研究》2020,34(11):2450-2465

Hydrological models used for flood prediction in ungauged catchments are commonly fitted to regionally transferred data. The key issue of this procedure is to identify hydrologically similar catchments. Therefore, the dominant controls for the process of interest have to be known. In this study, we applied a new machine learning based approach to identify the catchment characteristics that can be used to identify the active processes controlling runoff dynamics. A random forest (RF) regressor has been trained to estimate the drainage velocity parameters of a geomorphologic instantaneous unit hydrograph (GIUH) in ungauged catchments, based on regionally available data. We analyzed the learning procedure of the algorithm and identified preferred donor catchments for each ungauged catchment. Based on the obtained machine learning results from catchment grouping, a classification scheme for drainage network characteristics has been derived. This classification scheme has been applied in a flood forecasting case study. The results demonstrate that the RF could be trained properly with the selected donor catchments to successfully estimate the required GIUH parameters. Moreover, our results showed that drainage network characteristics can be used to identify the influence of geomorphological dispersion on the dynamics of catchment response.  相似文献   

Offset dependence of overburden time-shifts from ultrasonic data     

Audun Bakk  Rune M. Holt  Andreas Bauer  Bastien Dupuy  Anouar Romdhane 《Geophysical Prospecting》2020,68(6):1847-1863

Depletion or injection into a reservoir implies stress changes and strains in the reservoir and its surroundings. This may lead to measurable time-shifts for seismic waves propagating in the subsurface. To better understand the offset dependence of time-shifts in the overburden, we have systematically quantified the time-shifts of three different overburden shales in controlled laboratory tests. These experiments may be viewed as an analogue to the time-shifts recorded from seismic field surveys. For a range of different stress paths, defined as the ratio between the horizontal and the vertical stress changes, the changes of the P-wave velocities in different directions were measured such that the offset dependence of time-shifts for different stress paths could be studied. The time-shifts are stress path dependent, which is particularly pronounced at large offsets. For all stress paths, the time-shifts exhibit a linearly decreasing trend with increasing offset, that is, a negative offset gradient. At zero offset, for which the ray path is normal to the bedding, the time-shifts are similar for all investigated stress paths. The isotropic stress path is associated with the smallest offset gradient of the time-shifts. In contrast, the constant-mean-stress path shows the largest gradient with a flip in the polarity of the time-shifts for the largest offsets. The separate contributions from the strain and velocity changes to the time-shifts were also quantified. The time-shifts for the isotropic stress path are dominated by the contribution from velocity changes at all offsets. In contrast, the strain contributes significantly to the time-shifts at small offsets for the constant-mean-stress path. This shows that the offset dependence in pre-stack seismic data may be a key to understand the changes of subsurface stresses, pore pressure and strain upon depletion or injection. To utilize this knowledge from laboratory experiments, calibrated rock physics models and correlations are needed to constrain the seismic time-shifts and to obtain an adequately updated geological model reflecting the true anisotropic nature of the subsurface. This may have important implications for improved recovery and safety, particularly in mature fields.  相似文献