The need for national deep decarbonization pathways for effective climate policy     

Chris Bataille  Henri Waisman  Michel Colombier  Laura Segafredo  Jim Williams  Frank Jotzo 《Climate Policy》2016,16(4):S7-S26

Constraining global average temperatures to 2 °C above pre-industrial levels will probably require global energy system emissions to be halved by 2050 and complete decarbonization by 2100. In the nationally orientated climate policy framework codified under the Paris Agreement, each nation must decide the scale and method of their emissions reduction contribution while remaining consistent with the global carbon budget. This policy process will require engagement amongst a wide range of stakeholders who have very different visions for the physical implementation of deep decarbonization. The Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project (DDPP) has developed a methodology, building on the energy, climate and economics literature, to structure these debates based on the following principles: country-scale analysis to capture specific physical, economic and political circumstances to maximize policy relevance, a long-term perspective to harmonize short-term decisions with the long-term objective and detailed sectoral analysis with transparent representation of emissions drivers through a common accounting framework or ‘dashboard’. These principles are operationalized in the creation of deep decarbonization pathways (DDPs), which involve technically detailed, sector-by-sector maps of each country’s decarbonization transition, backcasting feasible pathways from 2050 end points. This article shows how the sixteen DDPP country teams, covering 74% of global energy system emissions, used this method to collectively restrain emissions to a level consistent with the 2 °C target while maintaining development aspirations and reflecting national circumstances, mainly through efficiency, decarbonization of energy carriers (e.g. electricity, hydrogen, biofuels and synthetic gas) and switching to these carriers. The cross-cutting analysis of country scenarios reveals important enabling conditions for the transformation, pertaining to technology research and development, investment, trade and global and national policies.

Policy relevance

In the nation-focused global climate policy framework codified in the Paris Agreement, the purpose of the DDPP and DDPs is to provide a common method by which global and national governments, business, civil society and researchers in each country can communicate, compare and debate differing concrete visions for deep decarbonization in order to underpin the necessary societal and political consensus to design and implement short-term policy packages that are consistent with long-term global decarbonization.  相似文献   

Modeling Urban Land Use Changes Using Support Vector Machines          下载免费PDF全文

Mileva Samardžić‐Petrović  Suzana Dragićević  Miloš Kovačević  Branislav Bajat 《Transactions in GIS》2016,20(5):718-734

Support Vector Machines (SVM) is a machine learning (ML) algorithm commonly applied to the classification of remotely sensing data and more recently for modeling land use changes. However, in most geospatial applications the current literature does not elaborate on specifications of the SVM method with respect to data sampling, attribute selection and optimal parameters choices. Therefore the main objective of this study is to present and investigate the SVM technique for modeling urban land use change. The SVM model building procedure is presented together with the detailed evaluation of the output results with respect to the choice of datasets, attributes and the change of SVM parameters. Geospatial datasets containing nine land use classes and spatial attributes for the Municipality of Zemun, Republic of Serbia were used for years 2001, 2003, 2007 and 2011. The Correlation‐based Feature Subset method, kappa coefficient, Area Under Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve (AUC) and kappa simulation were used to perform the model evaluation and compare the model outputs with the real land use datasets. The obtained results indicate that the SVM‐based models perform better when implementing balanced data sampling, reduced data sets to informative subsets of attributes and properly identify the optimal learning parameters.  相似文献   

A hybrid approach to modeling territorial control in violent armed conflicts          下载免费PDF全文

Ran Tao  Daniel Strandow  Michael Findley  Jean‐Claude Thill  James Walsh 《Transactions in GIS》2016,20(3):413-425

Territorial control is central to the understanding of violent armed conflicts, yet reliable and valid measures of this concept do not exist. We argue that geospatial analysis provides an important perspective to measure the concept. In particular, measuring territorial control can be seen as an application of calculating service areas around points of control. The modeling challenge is acute for areas with limited road infrastructure, where no complete network is available to perform the analysis, and movements largely occur off road. We present a new geospatial approach that applies network analysis on a hybrid transportation network with both actual road data and hexagon‐fishnet‐based artificial road data representing on‐road and off‐road movements, respectively. Movement speed or restriction can be readily adjusted using various input data. Simulating off‐road movement with hexagon‐fishnet‐based artificial road data has a number of advantages including scalability to small or large study areas and flexibility to allow all‐directional travel. We apply this method to measuring territorial control of armed groups in Sub‐Saharan Africa where inferior transport infrastructure is the norm. Based on the Uppsala Conflict Data Program's (UCDP) Georeferenced Event Data (GED) as well as spatial data on terrain, population locations, and limited transportation networks, we enhance the delineation of the specific areas directly controlled by each warring party during civil wars within a given travel time.  相似文献   

Did adaptation strategies work? High fatalities from tropical cyclones in the North Indian Ocean and future vulnerability under global warming     

S. Niggol Seo  Laura A. Bakkensen 《Natural Hazards》2016,82(2):1341-1355

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An evaluation of the Community Disaster Resilience Scorecard Toolkit by small,high-risk communities on the Sunshine Coast     

Lila Singh‐Peterson  Paul Salmon  Natassia Goode  John Gallina 《Natural Hazards》2016,84(1):489-505

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Marine Community Ecology and Conservation M.D. Bertness,J.F. Bruno,B.R. Silliman,J.J. Stachowicz (Eds) Sunderland,MA: Sinauer Associates Inc., 2014. 556 pp. ISBN 978‐1‐60535‐228‐2. Hardback: US$109.95.          下载免费PDF全文

Anne Shaffer  Mauricio Carrasquilla‐Henao  Francis Juanes 《Marine Ecology》2016,37(4):927-928

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Spatial distribution of crustaceans associated with shallow soft‐bottom habitats in a coral reef lagoon          下载免费PDF全文

Carlos Navarro‐Barranco  José M. Guerra‐García 《Marine Ecology》2016,37(1):77-87

The ecology and diversity of the shallow soft‐bottom areas adjacent to coral reefs are still poorly known. To date, the few studies conducted in these habitats dealing with macroinvertebrate fauna have focused on their abundance spatial patterns at high taxonomic levels. Thus, some aspects important to evaluate the importance and vulnerability of these habitats, such as species diversity or the degree of habitat specialization, have often been overlooked. In this study we compared the crustacean assemblages present in four different habitats at Magoodhoo Island coral reef lagoon (Maldives): coral rubble, sandy areas and two different seagrass species (Thalassia hemprichii and Cymodocea sp.). Forty‐two different crustacean species belonging to 30 families and four orders were found. ‘Site’ was a significant factor in all of the statistical analyses, indicating that tropical soft‐bottom habitats can be highly heterogeneous, even at a spatial scale between tens and hundreds of meters. Although traditionally it has been considered that seagrass beds host greater species diversity and abundance of organisms than adjacent unvegetated habitats, no differences in the univariate measures of fauna (abundance of organisms, number of species and Shannon diversity) were observed among habitats. However, sandy areas, coral rubble and seagrass beds exhibited different species composition of crustacean communities. The percentage of taxa considered as potential habitat specialists was 27% and the number of species exclusively occurring in one habitat was especially high in seagrass beds. Thus, degradation of this vegetated habitat would result in a great loss of biodiversity in tropical shallow soft‐bottom habitats.  相似文献   

Reefs at the edge: coral community structure around Rapa,southernmost French Polynesia          下载免费PDF全文

Mehdi Adjeroud  Carden C. Wallace  Pauline Bosserelle  Claude Payri  Jean‐Louis Menou  Michel Pichon 《Marine Ecology》2016,37(3):565-575

Rapa (27°36′ S, 144°20′ W) is a small (~40 km²) volcanic island isolated in the Southern Austral Archipelago, where direct anthropogenic stressors are extremely limited. Here, we present the results of the first quantitative survey of coral community structure across habitats and depths around the island. Despite its geographical isolation in the depauperate South Central Pacific, its small size and unfavourable environmental conditions (competition with macroalgae, low sea surface temperatures, reduced reef accretion), the diversity of scleractinian corals at Rapa is particularly high (112 species from 32 genera, including 37 species of Acropora) in comparison to other French Polynesian islands and subtropical Pacific locations. Our results indicate that the abundance (>100 colonies per 10 m² recorded at nine of the 17 sampling stations) and cover (>40% at four stations) of corals are relatively high for a marginal reef location. Strong spatial heterogeneity was found, with high variation in diversity, abundance, cover and community composition among stations. Variation in community composition was related to habitat types, with distinct assemblages among fringing reefs within bays, reef formations at bay entrances, and those on the submerged platform surrounding the island. On the platform, a depth gradient was detected, with generic richness, abundance and cover generally greater at deeper stations (18–20 m depth) compared with medium‐depth (10–12 m) and shallow (1–3 m) stations. A gradient was also recorded along bays, with increasing coral diversity and abundance from the bay heads to the bay entrances. The coral community at Rapa was characterized by the presence of several taxa not found in other French Polynesian archipelagos and the rarity of others that are common and abundant in the Society and the Tuamotu islands. Another distinctive feature of reef communities at Rapa is the high cover and dominance of macroalgae, particularly in the shallower parts of the surrounding platform, which probably explains the lower densities of coral colonies recorded there. These characteristics of the diversity and biogeographical composition of coral assemblages at Rapa provide considerable ecological grounds for its conservation.  相似文献   

Different thermal preferences for brooding and larval dispersal of two neighboring shrimps in deep‐sea hydrothermal vent fields          下载免费PDF全文

Hiromi Watanabe  Takuya Yahagi  Yukiko Nagai  MiHye Seo  Shigeaki Kojima  Jun‐ichiro Ishibashi  Hiroyuki Yamamoto  Katsunori Fujikura  Satoshi Mitarai  Takashi Toyofuku 《Marine Ecology》2016,37(6):1282-1289

Temperature is an important factor affecting the distributions and life‐history traits of marine animals. Deep‐sea hydrothermal vents are suitable environments to examine ecologic differences related to temperature, due to the steep temperature gradients around the vents. Rearing experiments under various temperature conditions (5–30 °C) at atmospheric pressure demonstrated a difference in thermal effects on egg hatching and larva in two co‐occurring, vent‐associated alvinocaridid shrimps – the peripherally distributed Alvinocaris longirostris and the centrally distributed Shinkaicaris leurokolos. The duration before hatching became shorter as temperature increased, while the maximum hatching rate occurred at higher temperatures in S. leurokolos (10–20 °C) than in A. longirostris (10 °C). Hatched larvae of both species were negatively buoyant, and larva with normal abdominal length could actively swim and stay suspended in the mid‐ or surface water layers of the culture plates under our experimental conditions. However, no larvae settled or metamorphosed into juveniles under the rearing conditions used in this study. Larvae with shortened abdomens occurred under most of the experimental conditions, although they were less frequent at 10 °C in A. longirostris and 20 °C in S. leurokolos. The maximum survival periods at these temperatures were 88 days in A. longirostris and 30 days in S. leurokolos. These characteristics may cause differences in the distributional ranges of the two species. The present results indicate that temperature is an important factor controlling life‐history traits of vent shrimps.  相似文献   

Ontogenic variation and effect of collection procedure on leaf biomechanical properties of Mediterranean seagrass Posidonia oceanica (L.) Delile          下载免费PDF全文

Carmen B. de los Santos  Bárbara Vicencio‐Rammsy  Gilles Lepoint  François Remy  Tjeerd J. Bouma  Sylvie Gobert 《Marine Ecology》2016,37(4):750-759

Leaf mechanical traits are important to understand how aquatic plants fracture and deform when subjected to abiotic (currents or waves) or biotic (herbivory attack) mechanical forces. The likely occurrence of variation during leaf ontogeny in these traits may thus have implications for hydrodynamic performance and vulnerability to herbivory damage, and may be associated with changes in morphologic and chemical traits. Seagrasses, marine flowering plants, consist of shoot bundles holding several leaves with different developmental stages, in which outer older leaves protect inner younger leaves. In this study we examined the long‐lived seagrass Posidonia oceanica to determine ontogenic variation in mechanical traits across leaf position within a shoot, representing different developmental stages. Moreover, we investigated whether or not the collection procedure (classical uprooted shoot versus non‐destructive shoot method: cutting the shoot without a portion of rhizome) and time span after collection influence mechanical measurements. Neither collection procedure nor time elapsed within 48 h of collection affected measurements of leaf biomechanical traits when seagrass shoots were kept moist in dark cool conditions. Ontogenic variation in mechanical traits in P. oceanica leaves over intermediate and adult developmental stages was observed: leaves weakened and lost stiffness with aging, while mid‐aged leaves (the longest and thickest ones) were able to withstand higher breaking forces. In addition, younger leaves had higher nitrogen content and lower fiber content than older leaves. The observed patterns may explain fine‐scale within‐shoot ecological processes of leaves at different developmental stages, such as leaf shedding and herbivory consumption in P. oceanica.  相似文献