Modelling the effects and economics of managed realignment on the cycling and storage of nutrients, carbon and sediments in the Blackwater estuary UK     

D. Shepherd  D. Burgess  T. Jickells  J. Andrews  R. Cave  R.K. Turner  J. Aldridge  E.R. Parker  E. Young   《Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science》2007,73(3-4):355-367

A hydrodynamic model is developed for the Blackwater estuary (UK) and used to estimate nitrate removal by denitrification. Using the model, sediment analysis and estimates of sedimentation rates, we estimate changes in estuarine denitrification and intertidal carbon and nutrient storage and associated value of habitat created under a scenario of extensive managed realignment. We then use this information, together with engineering and land costs, to conduct a cost benefit analysis of the managed realignment. This demonstrates that over a 50–100 year timescale the value of the habitat created and carbon buried is sufficient to make the large scale managed realignment cost effective. The analysis reveals that carbon and nutrient storage plus habitat creation represent major and quantifiable benefits of realignment. The methodology described here can be readily transferred to other coastal systems.  相似文献   

Public climate-change skepticism,energy preferences and political participation     

Anita Engels  Otto Hüther  Mike Schäfer  Hermann Held 《Global Environmental Change》2013,23(5):1018-1027

Many studies have shown a general decline of public concern about climate change or vice versa a rise in public climate-change skepticism, in particular in the U.S. and other Anglo-Saxon countries. There is a vivid debate on whether this is a global phenomenon, on which factors explain the decline, and on the broader societal implications of these trends in the context of the transformation toward a low-carbon society. We add to this literature by presenting the results of a recent general population survey in Germany in which we looked for systematic linkages between public climate-change skepticism on one hand, and energy preferences and political participation on the other. Germany is an interesting testbed as it is currently involved in a large-scale restructuring of its system of energy supply toward renewable energy sources (the “Energiewende”). Our results indicate that climate-change skepticism has not diffused widely in Germany, but that it correlates with less support of renewable energy sources. However, skepticism correlates negatively with political participation, and there is no strong political outlet for public climate-change skepticism in Germany. Alternative potential barriers for the successful implementation of the “Energiewende” are also discussed.  相似文献   

Climate change and hydrology at the prairie margin: Historic and prospective future flows of Canada's Red Deer and other Rocky Mountain rivers          下载免费PDF全文

Laurens J. Philipsen  Karen M. Gill  Anita Shepherd  Stewart B. Rood 《水文研究》2018,32(17):2669-2684

The South Saskatchewan River Basin of southern Alberta drains the transboundary central Rocky Mountains region and provides the focus for irrigation agriculture in Canada. Following extensive development, two tributaries, the Oldman and Bow rivers, were closed for further water allocations, whereas the Red Deer River (RDR) remains open. The RDR basin is at the northern limit of the North American Great Plains and may be suitable for agricultural expansion with a warming climate. To consider irrigation development and ecological impacts, it is important to understand the regional hydrologic consequences of climate change. To analyse historic trends that could extend into the future, we developed century‐long discharge records for the RDR, by coordinating data across hydrometric gauges, estimating annual flows from seasonal records, and undertaking flow naturalization to compensate for river regulation. Analyses indicated some coordination with the Pacific decadal oscillation and slight decline in summer and annual flows from 1912 to 2016 (?0.13%/year, Sen's slope). Another forecasting approach involved regional downscaling from the global circulation models, CGCMI‐A, ECHAM4, HadCM3, and NCAR‐CCM3. These projected slight flow decreases from the mountain headwaters versus increases from the foothills and boreal regions, resulting in a slight increase in overall river flows (+0.1%/year). Prior projections from these and other global circulation models ranged from slight decrease to slight increase, and the average projection of ?0.05%/year approached the empirical trend. Assessments of other rivers draining the central and northern Rocky Mountains revealed a geographic transition in flow patterns over the past century. Flows from the rivers in Southern Alberta declined (around ?0.15%/year), in contrast to increasing flows in north‐eastern British Columbia and the Yukon. The RDR watershed approaches this transition, and this study thus revealed regional differentiation in the hydrological consequences from climate change.  相似文献   

Design of sediment detention basins: Scaled model experiments and application     

Anita Moldenhauer-Roth  Guillaume Piton  Sebastian Schwindt  Mona Jafarnejad  Anton JSchleiss 《国际泥沙研究》2021,36(1):136-150

Sediment detention basins are implemented on mountain rivers to trap solid material that may aggravate the flooding of downstream settlements.However,retention structures built in the past may unnecessarily retain sediment during non-hazardous flood events,resulting in high maintenance costs and sediment deficit downstream.In addition,the so-called spontaneous self-flushing of previously retained sediment during floods has occasionally been observed.Recent research suggests to design sediment detention basins for controlling sediment passage with a guiding channel across the deposition area upstream of a hybrid barrier.Such barriers consist of a check dam with a slot orifice and an upstream bar screen with a bottom clearance in order to benefit from a combined mechanical-hydraulic retention control.The present paper enhances this pioneering research with the help of new experimental data,including a wide range of sediment mixtures and large wood,as well as variable barrier heights.Improved design criteria are provided regarding the bar screen and the basin storage capacity.The functionality of the enhanced concept for sediment detention is illustrated by a case study on a physical model:the protection of the Villard-Bonnot village(France)against torrential hazards.  相似文献   

A Bayesian procedure for Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Anita Grezio  Warner Marzocchi  Laura Sandri  Paolo Gasparini 《Natural Hazards》2010,53(1):159-174

In this paper, a Bayesian procedure is implemented for the Probability Tsunami Hazard Assessment (PTHA). The approach is general and modular incorporating all significant information relevant for the hazard assessment, such as theoretical and empirical background, analytical or numerical models, instrumental and historical data. The procedure provides the posterior probability distribution that integrates the prior probability distribution based on the physical knowledge of the process and the likelihood based on the historical data. Also, the method deals with aleatory and epistemic uncertainties incorporating in a formal way all sources of relevant uncertainty, from the tsunami generation process to the wave propagation and impact on the coasts. The modular structure of the procedure is flexible and easy to modify and/or update as long as new models and/or information are available. Finally, the procedure is applied to an hypothetical region, Neverland, to clarify the PTHA evaluation in a realistic case.  相似文献   

The impact and rotational light curves of Comet 9P/Tempel 1     

Jean Manfroid  Damien Hutsemékers  Anita L. Cochran  William M. Jackson  Rita Schulz 《Icarus》2007,187(1):144-155

UVES and HIRES high-resolution spectra of Comet 9P/Tempel 1 are used to investigate the impact and rotational light curves of various species with a view toward building a simple model of the distribution and activity of the sources. The emission by OH, NH, CN, C₃, CH, C₂, NH₂, and OI, are analyzed, as well as the light scattered by the dust. It is found that a simple model reproduces fairly well the impact light curves of all species combining the production of the observed molecules and the expansion of the material throughout the slit. The impact light curves are consistent with velocities of 400-600 m/s. Their modeling requires a three-step dissociation sequence “Grand-Parent → Parent → Daughter” to produce the observed molecules. The rotational light curve for each species is explained in terms of a single model with three sources. The dust component can however not easily be explained that way.  相似文献   

Cosmological models with the variable gravitational and cosmological constants     

N. Ibotombi Singh  Anita Sorokhaibam 《Astrophysics and Space Science》2007,310(1-2):131-134

Cosmology with the gravitational and cosmological constants generalized as coupling scalars in Einsteins theory is considered. A general method of solving the field equations is given. Exact solution for Zeldovich fluid satisfying G=G ₀(R/R ₀) ⁿ is given.  相似文献   

Hybrid character and pre-eruptive events of Mt Amiata volcano (Italy) inferred from geochronological,petro-geochemical and isotopic data     

Anita Cadoux  Daniele L. Pinti 《Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research》2009,179(3-4):169-190

A new geochronological and geochemical study was carried out to better constrain the petrogenesis and eruptive history of Monte Amiata, a large Pleistocene trachydacitic volcano of Southern Tuscany. Previous studies suggested a magma mixing origin between calc-alkaline silicic melts from the Tuscan Magmatic Province (TMP) and potassic mafic melts like those found in the Roman Magmatic Province (RMP). Two eruptive episodes–the first at ca. 300 kyr, the second at ca. 200 kyr–were distinguished from the few available ages. However, both the involvement of a RMP-like melt as mafic end-member and the timing of volcanic activity remained to be ascertained. The K–Ar ages obtained on plagioclase, sanidine and glass separated from Mt Amiata volcanic rocks demonstrate the sanidine is the most suitable phase for K–Ar dating. Sanidine yields ages of 304–293 kyr for the basal trachydacitic unit (BTC), 298–280 kyr in the domes unit (DLC) and unexpected older ages of 312–308 kyr for the more mafic summit lava unit (OLL). A careful re-examination of the literature ages together with those obtained in this study shows that they tend to a common age of ca. 300 kyr whatever the volcanic unit. We interpret this as a reset of the K–Ar chronometer in response to a consequent recharge of the silicic magma reservoir by hot mafic melts. This recharge most probably triggered the first volcanic eruption of Mt Amiata magmas. In our model, we suppose an initially chemically-stratified magma chamber; the input of deep hot mafic melts reset the crystals clock and probably allowed the eruption of the huge amount of trachydacitic crystal mush. We propose that the controversial BTC unit could have emplaced during a non-explosive eruption if we consider either pre-eruption passive degassing or extrusion of the trachydacites as magmatic foam.First Pb isotopic data of mafic enclaves from the trachydacitic units, together with major and trace elements and new Sr and Nd data support the magma mixing as the dominant process at the origin of the Mt Amiata volcanic rocks. The similar LILE/HFSE ratios evidenced in this contribution between the magmatic enclaves of Mt Amiata and RMP volcanic rocks, together with their comparable Sr, Nd and Pb isotopic compositions, definitively argue for the involvement of a RMP-like melt in the mixing. The Mt Amiata is thus indisputably a hybrid volcano between TMP and RMP in terms of petrogenesis and ages.  相似文献   

Epithermal gold mineralisation in the active Aegean Volcanic Arc: the Profitis Ilias deposit, Milos Island, Greece     

Stephanos P. Kilias  Jon Naden  Ioannis Cheliotis  Thomas J. Shepherd  Heleni Constandinidou  John Crossing  Ioannis Simos 《Mineralium Deposita》2001,36(1):32-44

The Profitis Ilias gold deposit, located on the western part of Milos Island, Greece, is the first epithermal gold deposit discovered in the Pliocene–Pleistocene Aegean volcanic arc. Estimated ore reserves are 5 million tonnes grading 4.4 g/tonne Au and 43 g/tonne Ag. The deposit is closely associated with a horst and graben structure, and occurs in a series of steep interconnected crustiform-banded quartz veins up to 3 m wide, extending to depths of at least 300 m. The mineralisation occurs in three stages and is hosted by 3.5–2.5 Ma old silicified and sericitised rhyolitic lapilli-tuffs and ignimbrites. It consists of pyrite, galena, chalcopyrite, electrum and native gold. Additionally, adularia occurs with quartz mainly in veins. Homogenisation temperatures of primary liquid-rich inclusions vary from 145 to 399 °C for the ore stage, and 112 to 263 °C for the post-ore stage. Salinities range between 0.1 and 11.4 wt% NaCl equiv. and 0.93 to 8.5 wt% NaCl equiv. for the ore stage and the post-ore stage, respectively. Rare vapour-rich inclusions in ore stage quartz homogenise between 368 and 399 °C and estimates of eutectic melting (−25 to −38 °C) indicate the presence of Ca and Mg in the ore fluids. Sample elevation versus fluid inclusion T_h–salinity relationships show (1) a high-salinity trend, where moderate-temperature (300–250 °C) and moderate-salinity brines (∼3 wt% NaCl equiv.) trend to high-salinity (up to 15 wt% NaCl equiv.) fluids with lower (∼25–50 °C) homogenisation temperatures, and (2) a high-T_h trend where moderate-salinity and moderate-temperature brines (200–250 °C; 3 wt% NaCl equiv.) develop into low-salinity (<1 wt% NaCl equiv.), high-temperature (>350 °C) fluids. These trends are best explained by extreme boiling and vapourisation phenomena between 200 and 250 °C. The 430–450 m asl (metres above sea level) level marks the transition between a lower liquid-dominated segment of the system where only the steep high-salinity trend is seen, and an upper vapour-dominated segment where the high-T_h trend or a combination of both are seen. There is a close spatial association between mineable gold grades and the upper segment of the system. Depth-to-boiling curves suggest that the paleo-surface was ∼200 m above the present summit of Profitis Ilias. Comparison of the mineralisation and fluid geochemistry at Profitis Ilias with that of the nearby modern geothermal system indicates that the processes of metal mineralisation have probably been continuous since the Late Pliocene. Received: 24 February 2000 / Accepted: 15 July 2000  相似文献   

Interference filter spectral imaging of twilight O+(2P-2D) emission     

Yanhua Ma  R. N. Peterson  S. P. Zhang  I. C. McDade  R. H. Wiens  G. G. Shepherd 《Annales Geophysicae》1995,13(2):189-195

A spectral imager specifically designed to measure the O⁺(²P-²D) emission in the thermosphere during twilight has been constructed and tested in Toronto (43.8°N, 79.3°W), and found to show promise for long-term and campaign-mode operations. A modification of the mesopause oxygen rotational temperature imager (MORTI), it consists basically of a narrow-band interference filter (0.14 nm bandwidth) to separate wavelengths as a function of off-axis angle, a lens to focus the spectrum into a series of concentric rings, and a focal plane array (CCD) to record the spectral images in digital form. The instrument was built with two fields of view, one for the zenith and one for 20° above the horizon, movable to track the azimuth of the Sun, in order to provide appropriate data for inversion. Data gathered during June 1991 provided measurements of the column-integrated emission rate with a precision of about 3%. An atomic oxygen profile was deduced that showed good agreement with that predicted by the MSIS-90 model atmosphere. Geomagnetically induced variations of the O⁺ lines, calcium spectra resulting from meteor showers, and OH nightglow were also observed.  相似文献