Using model error in response history analysis to evaluate component calibration methods     

Adam Zsarnóczay  Jack W. Baker 《地震工程与结构动力学》2020,49(2):175-193

This research is part of a larger effort to better understand and quantify the epistemic model uncertainty in dynamic response-history simulations. This paper focuses on how calibration methods influence model uncertainty. Structural models in earthquake engineering are typically built up from independently calibrated component models. During component calibration, engineers often use experimental component response under quasi-static loading to find parameters that minimize the error in structural response under dynamic loading. Since the calibration and the simulation environments are different, if a calibration method wants to provide optimal parameters for simulation, it has to focus on features of the component response that are important from the perspective of global structural behavior. Relevance describes how efficiently a calibration method can focus on such important features. A framework of virtual experiments and a methodology is proposed to evaluate the influence of calibration relevance on model error in simulations. The evaluation is demonstrated through a case study with buckling-restrained braced frames (BRBF). Two calibration methods are compared in the case study. The first, highly relevant calibration method is based on stiffness and hardening characteristics of braces; the second, less relevant calibration method is based on the axial force response of braces. The highly relevant calibration method consistently identified the preferable parameter sets. In contrast, the less relevant calibration method showed poor to mediocre performance. The framework and methodology presented here are not limited to BRBF. They have the potential to facilitate and systematize the improvement of component-model calibration methods for any structural system.  相似文献   

Spectroscopic and photometric observations of symbiotic nova PU Vul during 2009–2016     

Anna Tatarnikova  Marina Burlak  Eugene Kolotilov  Natalia Metlova  Victor Shenavrin  Sergei Shugarov  Taisija Tarasova  Andrey Tatarnikov 《天文和天体物理学研究(英文版)》2018,(8)

A new set of low-resolution spectral and UBVJHKL-photometric observations of the symbiotic nova PU Vul is presented. The binary has been evolving after its symbiotic nova outburst in 1977 and now it is in the nebular stage. It is found that the third orbital cycle(after 1977) was characterized by great changes in associated light curves. Now, PU Vul exhibits a sine-wave shape in all the light curves(with an amplitude in the U band of about 0.7 mag), which is typical for symbiotic stars in the quiescent state. Brightness variability due to pulsations of the cool component is now clearly visible in the VRI light curves. The amplitude of the pulsations increases from 0.5 mag in the V band to 0.8 mag in the I band. These two types of variability, as well as a very slow change in the physical parameters of the hot component due to evolution after the outburst of 1977, influence the spectral energy distribution(SED)of the system. The variability of emission lines is highly complex. Only hydrogen line fluxes vary with orbital phase. An important feature of the third orbital cycle is the first emergence of the OVI, 6828  Raman scattering line. We determine the temperature of the hot component by means of the Zanstra method applied to the He II, 4686  line. Our estimate is about 150 000 K for the spectrum obtained near orbital maximum in 2014. The VO spectral index derived near pulsation minimum corresponds to M6 spectral class for the cool component of PU Vul.  相似文献   

Tourism versus nature conservation: reconciliation of common interests and objectives——an analysis through Picos de Europa National Park     

Iván López  Mercedes Pardo 《山地科学学报》2018,15(11):2505-2516

Nature tourism and particularly tourism in national parks have acquired significant importance in contemporary societies. Post-Fordist consumers have reevaluated the meanings of ‘nature' and ‘natural spaces' and now avoid standardization to seek singularity. Tourism in national parks is a consequence of this tendency and has both positive and negative aspects. The purpose of this sociological research is to describe the most relevant conflicts in the Picos de Europa National Park(Spain) involving the park's conservation, local economic development,and tourism. Seven in-depth interviews and three focus groups were addressed to key local stakeholders.In this research were identified three chief areas of existing or potential inter-related conflicts and the main actors interacting with them. The first is on population, particularly, the negative consequences of depopulations on the local socio-economic development and the environment. A second source of conflicts identified is caused by the difficult conciliation between commercial exploitation and conservation of the protected natural area. More precisely, this specific form of tourism positively contributes to the economy of local communities whilst problems can arise for the conservation goals of National Parks. Thirdly, in this research is also analyzed the institutional governance and the inter and intra-governmental conflicts as well as with the Park's management body. These findings provide important information for the improved management of tourism and conflicting interests in natural parks.  相似文献   

Field evidences showing rapid frontal degeneration of the Kangriz glacier,western Himalayas,Jammu & Kashmir     

GARG Siddhi  SHUKLA Aparna  MEHTA Manish  KUMAR Vinit  SAMUEL Shruti Anna  BARTARYA S.K.  SHUKLA Uma Kant 《山地科学学报》2018,(6)

Life cycle of glaciers in the Himalayan region has notably changed due to the climatic variability since last few decades. Glaciers across the world and specially the Himalayan glaciers have shown large scale degeneration in the last few decades. Himalayan glaciers serve as an important fresh water resource for the downstream communities, who are dependent on this water for domestic and other purposes. Therefore, glacier shrinkage and the associated hydrological changes pose a significant problem for regional-scale water budgets and resource management. These issues necessitate the regular and rigorous monitoring of the wastage pattern of the Himalayan glaciers in field and using satellite remote sensing data. In this work, we report rapid and enhanced degeneration of the frontal part of the Kangriz glacier, Jammu and Kashmir(J K), in terms of surface melting, debris cover, snout characteristics and meltwater discharge. Ablation data acquired during 2016-2017 shows the average lowering of the frontal part of the glacier to be ~148 ± 34 cm, one-third of which was found to have occurred within a 13 day time period in September, 2017. Also, the quantum of ice melt was found to be inversely influenced(r =-0.84) by the debris thickness. 15 day meltwater discharge measurement revealed its strong relationship with snout disintegration pattern, evidenced twice during the said time period. Volume of water discharged from the glacier was estimated to be 7.91×10~6 m~3 for the measurement duration. Also, mean daily discharge estimated for the 15 days interval showed good positive correction(r = 0.78) with temperature indicating the direct dependency of the former on land surface temperature conditions of the region. Besides the lowering and discharge observations, the frequent ice-block break-offs at the glacier snout further enhance its overall drastic degeneration. The study suggests that, being the largest glacier in the Suru basin, the Kangriz glacier needs to be continuously monitored in order to understand its glacio-hydrological conditions.  相似文献   

Spatio-temporal variability of benthic macroalgae in a coral reef system highly influenced by fluvial discharge: Veracruz,Gulf of Mexico     

Guillermo Horta-Puga  José Luis Tello-Musi  Alejandro Córdova  Adriana Gutiérrez-Carrillo  Jhoan Gutiérrez-Martínez  Aura Aletse Morales-Aranda 《Marine Ecology》2020,41(4):e12596

The Veracruz Reef System, in the southern Gulf of Mexico, is a suitable area for the study of the temporal and spatial variability of macroalgae abundance, at reef settings influenced by the fluvial discharge of the Jamapa River, and by human activities in the city and port of Veracruz. With this purpose, the bottom cover of each morpho-functional group of benthic macroalgae (frondoses, turf, and crustose corallines), and hermatypic corals, was determined at ten selected coral reefs, on a seasonal basis (rainy and dry seasons), for the 2009–2015 period. The average cover of benthic macroalgae was high (53.1%), with turf as the dominant morpho-functional group (31.9%), as in several reef ecosystems in the tropical Atlantic, followed by crustose corallines (15.2%), and frondoses (6.1%). Although turf macroalgae is dominant, due to their high temporal and spatial variability, the Veracruz Reef System could not be considered to be in a stable state, but just in an intermediate unstable equilibrium state, which is highly influenced by a high sediment load. As expected, nearshore reefs presented higher macroalgae covers, and unexpectedly, the outer-shelf reefs presented the highest cover of frondoses. Despite fluvial discharge influence, no differences in cover were found between the rainy and dry seasons. There was a negative and significantly correlation between the cover of frondoses and turf, which suggests that the driver/s of the abundance of these macroalgae, act in opposite ways for each group. Three clusters of reefs, defined by community structure and conservation degree, were determined: nearshore or degraded, offshore or moderately conserved, and conserved; and the entire Veracruz Reef System is considered to be in a moderately state of conservation.  相似文献   

Identifying and Removing the Silences of Roma Culture in Polish School Texts     

Agnes Świętek  Stanley Brunn  Bożena Wógtowicz 《The Journal of geography》2019,118(4):169-184

The Roma are the largest and, some scholars would argue, the most marginalized group in Europe, an observation evident in an examination of school texts for Polish children. Using the concept of the “geographies of silence,” we discuss the nature of text and graphical silences and the reasons behind the paucity of text, photo, and map coverage. We conclude by presenting photos that could be used in future texts to better inform Polish youth about a much-neglected part of their culture.  相似文献   

Regional and species specific sexual reproductive patterns of three zooxanthellate scleractinian corals across the Eastern Tropical Pacific          下载免费PDF全文

Jeimy D. Santiago‐Valentín  Susan B. Colley  Peter W. Glynn  Amilcar L. Cupul‐Magaña  Ramon A. López‐Pérez  Fabián A. Rodríguez‐Zaragoza  Francisco Benítez‐Villalobos  Eric Bautista‐Guerrero  Denisse A. Zavala‐Casas  Alma P. Rodríguez‐Troncoso 《Marine Ecology》2018,39(2)

Sexual reproduction of zooxanthellate scleractinian corals in the Eastern Tropical Pacific (ETP) is influenced by the interactive effects of regional and local oceanographic conditions, as well as a variety of other environmental factors. Differences in spatial and temporal gamete development and reproductive patterns of three widespread scleractinian corals of this region—Pocillopora damicornis (branching colony morphology, characterized as hermaphrodite broadcaster), Pavona gigantea (massive colonies, characterized as gonochoric broadcaster/sequential co‐sexually hermaphroditic) and Porites panamensis (encrusting colonies, characterized as gonochoric brooder)—were evaluated at local and regional scales across the ETP. This area extended from the Gulf of California (24°N) to the southern coast of Ecuador (–1°S), including offshore islands, using existing data pooled from prior studies. Predictive models were employed based on environmental variables: sea surface temperature, daylight hours, diffuse attenuation co‐efficient at 490 nm and photosynthetically active radiation. Datasets were extracted from satellite images ( https://oceancolor.gsfc.nasa.gov ) and analysed using WAM_STATIST ver. 6.33® software to obtain monthly average data from each site. The spatial (region, sub‐region and site) and seasonal (wet, dry) variation in reproductive activity (% colonies with gametes) differed among the three species; significant interactions were season × sub‐region for P. damicornis, season × site (sub‐region) for P. gigantea, and season × site for P. panamensis, for which sub‐region was not considered as a factor. The predictive models also suggest that gamete production/maturation of P. damicornis and P. gigantea is influenced by local differences in sea surface temperature and daylight hours. Porites panamensis was not correlated with any environmental variable examined. Variations in local and regional reproductive developmental patterns are likely an acclimatization response by each species imposed by the timing and duration of local stressor events. This analysis has provided insights into the diverse local and regional physical drivers that affect species responses and acclimatization in sexual reproduction across the ETP.  相似文献   

Phylogeographic patterns in Maguimithrax spinosissimus (Decapoda: Mithracidae) from Colombian Caribbean     

Julio César Hurtado-Alarcón  Néstor Hernando Campos Campos  Adriana Bermúdez Tobón  Edna J. Márquez 《新西兰海洋与淡水研究杂志》2018,52(1):118-137

The Caribbean king crab Maguimithrax spinosissimus is an important artisanal fisheries resource with a distribution range that includes the Florida Keys and Caribbean Sea islands. We carried out a phylogeographic analysis of M. spinosissimus in one oceanic (Old Providence) and two continental islands (Rosario and Tintipán). We analysed 89 and 49 Control Region (CR) and Cytochrome Oxidase I (COI) sequences, respectively. We found genetic differentiation between Old Providence and Rosario?+?Tintipán units (F_ST values of 0.84 for CR and 0.91 for COI gene), and gene flow between Rosario and Tintipán (F_ST values ?0.0085 for CR, P?>?.88; ?0.01 for COI gene, P?>?.99). Our analysis showed two genetic stocks and possibly an isolated biogeographic unit of M. spinosissimus. We suggest managing the species as different populations, and conducting more ecological and biological studies for the determination of possible cryptic species.  相似文献   

The interplay between the viscosity and EUV radiation on the dispersal of protoplanetary discs     

J. C. Vallejo  A. I. Gómez de Castro 《Astrophysics and Space Science》2018,363(12):246

A key issue in the evolution of protostellar discs is the analysis of the mechanisms by which the disc is eventually dispersed and the time-scales involved in this process. The photoevaporation is very likely an important process in dispersing discs material and for explaining the observational time-scales needed for reaching a discless status. We analyze the role of the EUV radiation on a variety of disc models when different viscosity values are used. Our analysis focus on the changes of different diagnostic indicators commonly used for comparison of discs models and observed systems.  相似文献   

The restricted three-body problem in cylindrical clouds     

Barnabás Deme  Bálint Érdi  L. Viktor Tóth 《Celestial Mechanics and Dynamical Astronomy》2018,130(11):73

The fragmentation of interstellar molecular clouds has been investigated with great effort by many authors. In this paper, a simple model is given to describe the dynamics of two fragments moving in a special cylindrical potential. Using a modified version of the restricted three-body problem and the corresponding Jacobian integral, some constraints are given for the motion of the fragments.  相似文献