The A.D. 79 eruption as a future explosive scenario in the Vesuvian area: evaluation of associated risk     

Lucio Lirer  Rosalba Munno  Immacolata Postiglione  Anna Vinci  Livia Vitelli 《Bulletin of Volcanology》1997,59(2):112-124

 Due to the lack of an effective policy of planning and prevention, over the past decades the area around Mt. Vesuvio has undergone a steady increase in population and uncontrolled housing development. Consequently, it has become one of the most hazardous volcanic areas in the world. In order to mitigate the damage that the impact of an explosive event would cause in the area, the Department of Civil Defense has worked out an Emergency Management Plan using the A.D. 1631 subplinian eruption as the most probable short-term event. However, from 25 000 years B.P. to present, the activity of the Somma-Vesuvio volcano has shown a sequence of eight eruptive cycles, which always began with a strong plinian eruption. In this paper we utilize the A.D. 79 eruption as an example of a potential large explosive eruption that might occur again at Vesuvio. A detailed tephrostratigraphic analysis of the eruption products was processed by a multivariate statistical analysis. This analysis proved useful for identifying marker layers in the sequences, thus allowing the recognition of some major phases of synchronous deposition and hence the definition of the chronological and spatial evolution of the eruption. By combining this reconstruction with land-use maps, a scenario is proposed with time intervals in the eruptive sequence similar to those reported in Pliny's letter. Thus, it was calculated that, after 7 h from the start of the eruption, a total area of approximately 300 km² would be covered with the eruption products. In the following 11 h, a total area of approximately 500 km² would be involved. The third and last phase of deposition would not cause significant variation in the total area involved, but it would bring about an increase in the thickness of the pyroclastic deposits in the perivolcanic area. Received: 30 November 1996 / Accepted: 29 May 1997  相似文献   

Book review     

Anna Malkiewicz  R. E. Munn  Conrad East 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》1977,11(1):129-130

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Synthetic secular theories of the planetary orbits: Regular and chaotic behavior     

Anna M Nobili 《Celestial Mechanics and Dynamical Astronomy》1988,45(1-3):293-304

Modern computer technology allows dynamical astronomers to investigate the long term stability of real systems as thoroughly as ever. However, the process is not straightforward and new problems need to be solved. This work deals with only one such problem: the construction-from the numerical integration- of a secular perturbation theory that is able to describe the dynamical behavior of the system. The discussion refers to the outer planets and is based on the knowledge acquired by the author during her participation in project LONGSTOP. A digital filter is used in order to reduce the output and eliminate short periodic terms. Filtering uncovers long term variations in the semimajor axes. From the filtered output a secular perturbation theory is constructed in the assumption that the solution is regular, as secular perturbation theories can only be constructed for regular solutions. If we succeed, this means that the solution is indeed regular for the computed span of time; if not-and this can be established in a rigorous way-it has to be concluded a posteriori that the solution is not regular. The LONGSTOP 1A and 1B integrations show well that as the timespan of the integration increases it is possible to detect the non-regular behavior of the solution. This happens in the eccentricity of Saturn at the 10^–4 level.  相似文献   

On the Centre Manifold of Collinear Points in the Planar Three-Body Problem     

Regina Martínez  Anna Samà 《Celestial Mechanics and Dynamical Astronomy》2003,85(4):311-340

We study the existence of invariant tori in a neighbourhood of the collinear equilibrium points of the planar three-body problem. To this end some properties of the normal form of the Hamiltonian reduced to the 4D central manifold are proved. Using this normal form, we show that the nondegeneracy conditions of KAM theorem are satisfied for all positive masses, including the 2:1 resonance case. The evaluation of the conditions is done numerically.  相似文献   

The solar wind velocity in the eleven-year cycle no. 20 and the solar radar cross-section     

Stephen Pintér 《Solar physics》1974,35(1):225-232

The annual average values of the solar wind velocity over the period 1962–1972 were investigated on the basis of data obtained from different space probes. The comparison of the pattern of the annual average solar wind velocities observed by the Vela and Pioneer 6 satellites indicates that the pattern presented by Gosling et al. (1971) is realistic. The long-range trend in the solar wind velocity during the 11-year cycle is governed by the number and intensity of irregularities occurring in the corona. These irregularities may represent motions of mass or some types of MHD shock waves and they are responsible for the increased heating of the corona which then in turn causes an increase in the values of the solar radar cross-section and of the solar wind velocity. A close relation is demonstrated between the monthly and annual average values of the solar wind velocity and of the cross-section.  相似文献   

Spatial and temporal variability of hard-bottom macrofauna in a disturbed coastal lagoon (Sacca di Goro, Po River Delta, Northwestern Adriatic Sea)     

Marchini A  Gauzer K  Occhipinti-Ambrogi A 《Marine pollution bulletin》2004,48(11-12):1084-1095

The sessile and mobile macrobenthos on artificial hard bottoms was studied in 12 stations of the Sacca di Goro lagoon, a brackish, highly stressed water basin in the delta of the river Po, open to the Northwestern Adriatic Sea. Three sampling surveys were carried out in June and September 2000 and June 2001 in order to make three types of temporal comparisons: (i) on a seasonal scale, before and after a summer dystrophic event; (ii) on an annual basis, before and after the works of excavation of a canal through the outer sand bank; (iii) on a multiannual scale, comparing the data with those of a survey carried out in 1988. The biocoenoses did not show large fluctuations after a moderately severe summer dystrophic crisis, while the digging of the canal caused clear changes in the macrobenthos community structure after one year. The long-term comparison showed a shift in the community patterns after a decade.  相似文献   

Marine quality assessment by use of benthic species-abundance distributions: a proposed new protocol within the European Union Water Framework Directive   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

Rosenberg R  Blomqvist M  C Nilsson H  Cederwall H  Dimming A 《Marine pollution bulletin》2004,49(9-10):728-739

The aim of this study is to develop a new method for classification of marine benthic quality according to the European Union Water Framework Directive. Tolerance values to environmental disturbance were determined in an objective analysis for benthic species along the Swedish west coast by using 4676 samples from 257 stations. Based on a combination of the species tolerance values, abundance and diversity, a benthic quality index (BQI) was calculated for the assessment of environmental status at a particular station. The qualification of BQI was evaluated in relation to known spatial and temporal gradients of disturbance.  相似文献   

A uniform terminology on bioinvasions: a chimera or an operative tool?   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

Occhipinti-Ambrogi A  Galil BS 《Marine pollution bulletin》2004,49(9-10):688-694

A consensual set of definitions regarding bioinvasions is essential in order to facilitate discourse among the science, policy and management communities dealing with the issue. Considering both the mode of entry and the extent of the impact of an alien species into a new environment, a set of key terms is proposed as an operative tool for marine scientists.  相似文献   

A simulation of Asian dust events in March 2010 by using the ADAM2 model     

Soon-Ung Park  Anna Choe  Moon-Soo Park 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2012,107(3-4):491-503

Asian dust events occurred in Asia during March 2010 were simulated using the Asian Dust Aerosol Model 2 (ADAM2). The performance of the model for simulations of surface dust concentrations and dust event occurrences was tested at several monitoring sites located in the dust source region and the downstream region of Korea. The observed and modeled dust event occurrences at each monitoring site were defined with the hourly observed and modeled dust concentrations that were used to evaluate the performance of the model by constructing a contingency table for the dust event occurrence. It was found that the model simulated quite well the starting and ending times of dust events with their peak dust concentrations for most dust events occurred both in the dust source region and the downstream region of Korea. However, the model failed to simulate a few dust events observed in both regions mainly due to the inaccurate simulations of the meteorological fields. Inaccurate simulations of wind speeds have caused for the model to simulate dust events poorly in the dust source region whereas poor simulations of precipitation of the fifth-generation mesoscale model (MM5) model have led to miss dust events in the downstream region of Korea. The contingency table made with the hourly data for the dust event occurrence made it possible to evaluate the ADAM2 model for the simulation of the dust event occurrence. It was found that the model has the probabilistic simulation capability for dust events of about 78% with the hit rate of more than 83% and the false alarm rate of about 27% for the dust events occurred during March in 2010. The probabilistic capability of the model could be much improved by improving the meteorological model (MM5 model).  相似文献   

The Asian Dust Aerosol Model 2 (ADAM2) with the use of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) obtained from the Spot4/vegetation data   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Soon-Ung Park  Anna Choe  Eun-Hee Lee  Moon-Soo Park  Xingzhuo Song 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2010,101(1-2):191-208

The operational Asian Dust Aerosol Model (ADAM)1 in Korea Meteorological Administration has been modified to the ADAM2 model to be used as an operational forecasting model all year round not only in Korea but also in the whole Asian domain (70-160°E and 5-60°N) using the routinely available World Meteorological Organization (WMO) surface reporting data and the Spot/vegetation Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data for the period of 9 years from 1998 to 2006. The 3-hourly reporting WMO surface data in the Asian domain have been used to re-delineate the Asian dust source region and to determine the temporal variation of the threshold wind speed for the dust rise. The dust emission reduction factor due to vegetation in different surface soil-type regions (Gobi, sand, loess, and mixed soil) has been determined with the use of NDVI data. It is found that the threshold wind speed for the dust rise varies significantly with time (minimum in summer and maximum in winter) and surface soil types with the highest threshold wind speed of 8.0 m?s^?1 in the Gobi region and the lowest value of 6.0 m?s^?1 in the loess region. The statistical analysis of the spot/vegetation NDVI data enables to determine the emission reduction factor due to vegetation with the free NDVI value that is the NDVI value without the effect of vegetation and the upper limit value of NDVI for the dust rise in different soil-type regions. The modified ADAM2 model has been implemented to simulate two Asian dust events observed in Korea for the periods from 31 March to 2 April 2007 (a spring dust event) and from 29 to 31 December 2007 (a winter dust event) when the observed PM₁₀ concentration at some monitoring sites in the source region exceeds 9,000 μg m^?3. It is found that ADAM2 model successfully simulates the observed high dust concentrations of more than 8,000 μg m^?3 in the dust source region and 600 μg m^?3 in the downstream region of Korea. This suggests that ADAM2 has a great potential for the use of an operational Asian dust forecast model in the Asian domain.  相似文献