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101.
Increased melting on glaciers and ice sheets and rising sea level are often mentioned as important aspects of the anticipated greenhouse warming of the earth's atmosphere. This paper deals with the sensitivity of Greenland's ice mass budget and presents a tentative projection of the Greenland component of future sea level rise for the next few hundred years. To do this, the ‘Villach II temperature scenario’ is prescribed,output from a comprehensive mass balance model is used to drive a high-resolution 3-D thermomechanic model of the ice sheet.The mass balance model consists of two parts: the accumulation part is based on presently observed values and is forced by changes in mean anr tempeerature. The ablation model is based on the degree-day method and accounts for daily and annual temperature cycle, a different degree-day factor for ice and snow melting and superimposed ice formation. Under present-day climatic conditions, the following total mass balance results (in ice equivalent per years): 599.3 × 109 m3 of accumulation, 281.7 × 109m3 of runoff assuming a balanced budget, 317.6 × 109m3 of iceberg calving. A 1K uniform warming is then calculated to increase the runoff by 119.5 × 109 m3. Since accumulation also increases by 32 × 109 m3, this leads to reduction of the total mass balance by 887.5 × 109 m3 of ice, corresponding to a sea level rise of 0.22 mm/yr. For temperature increase larger than 2.7 K, runoff, exceeds accumulation, and if ice sheet dynamics were to remain unchanged, this would add an extra amount of 0.8 mmyr to the worl's oceans.Imposing the Villach II scenario (warming up to 4.23 K) and accumulating mass balance changes forward in time (static response) would then result in a global sea level rise of 7.1 cm by 2100 AD, but this figure may go up to as much as 40 cm per century in case the warming is doubled. In a subsequent dynamic model involving the ice flow, the ice sheet is found to produce a counteracting effect by dynamically producing steeper slopes at the margin, thereby reducing the area over which runoff can take place. This effect is particularly apparent in the northeastern part of the ice sheet, and is also more pronounced for the smaller temperature perturbations. Nevertheless, all these experiments certainly highlight the vulnerability of the Greenland ice sheet with respect to a climatic warming. 相似文献
102.
Cyrena Anne Goodrich Frank Wlotzka D. Kent Ross Rainer Bartoschewitz 《Meteoritics & planetary science》2006,41(6):925-952
Abstract— Northwest Africa (NWA) 1500 is an ultramafic meteorite dominated by coarse (?100–500 μm) olivine (95–96%), augite (2–3%), and chromite (0.6–1.6%) in an equilibrated texture. Plagioclase (0.7–1.8%) occurs as poikilitic grains (up to ?3 mm) in vein‐like areas that have concentrations of augite and minor orthopyroxene. Other phases are Cl‐apatite, metal, sulfide, and graphite. Olivine ranges from Fo 65–73, with a strong peak at Fo 68–69. Most grains are reversezoned, and also have ?10–30 μm reduction rims. In terms of its dominant mineralogy and texture, NWA 1500 resembles the majority of monomict ureilites. However, it is more ferroan than known ureilites (Fo ≥75) and other mineral compositional parameters are out of the ureilite range as well. Furthermore, neither apatite nor plagioclase have ever been observed, and chromite is rare in monomict ureilites. Nevertheless, this meteorite may be petrologically related to the rare augite‐bearing ureilites and represent a previously unsampled part of the ureilite parent body (UPB). The Mn/Mg ratio of its olivine and textural features of its pyroxenes are consistent with this interpretation. However, its petrogenesis differs from that of known augite‐bearing ureilites in that: 1) it formed under more oxidized conditions; 2) plagioclase appeared before orthopyroxene in its crystallization sequence; and 3) it equilibrated to significantly lower temperatures (800–1000 °C, from two‐pyroxene and olivine‐chromite thermometry). Formation under more oxidized conditions and the appearance of plagioclase before orthopyroxene could be explained if it formed at a greater depth on the UPB than previously sampled. However, its significantly different thermal history (compared to ureilites) may more plausibly be explained if it formed on a different parent body. This conclusion is consistent with its oxygen isotopic composition, which suggests that it is an ungrouped achondrite. Nevertheless, the parent body of NWA 1500 may have been compositionally and petrologically similar to the UPB, and may have had a similar differentiation history. 相似文献
103.
The detection of solar irradiance variations (both bolometric and at various wavelengths) by satellite-based experiments during the last one-and-a-half decades stimulated modeling efforts to help identify their causes and to provide estimates of irradiance data for those time intervals when no satellite observations exist. In this paper we present estimates of the long-term irradiance changes developed with Fourier and wavelet transforms. The month-to-month irradiance variations, after removing the solar cycle related long-term changes, are studied with the cross-correlation technique. Results of the analysis reveal a significant phase shift at 3 months between the full-disk magnetic field strength and total solar and UV irradiance, with irradiance leading the magnetic field variability. In addition to this time delay between the changes in solar irradiance and the magnetic field, a 10-month phase shift has been found between the UV flux at 280 nm and total solar irradiance corrected for sunspot darkening. The existence of these phase shifts suggests the possibility of a coupling between the physical processes taking place below, in, and above the photosphere. 相似文献
104.
A field study of surface water and groundwater interactions during baseflow and stormflow conditions was performed at the Reedy Creek watershed in the Virginia Coastal Plain. Three estimates of the average saturated hydraulic conductivity (Ks) of the unconfined aquifer were in reasonable agreement (ranging from 0.0033 to 0.010 cm/s), indicating that baseflow in the creek is entirely from the drainage of shallow groundwater from the relatively thin (1–6 m thick) unconfined aquifer. This relatively permeable surficial aquifer was found to be underlain by dark, olive grey, clay-silt and diatomaceous Miocene deposits of low permeability known as the Calvert Formation, which is believed to function as a confining bed in the area. A chemical hydrograph separation technique was used to resolve the contributions of [old] (pre-event) and [new] (event) water to stormflow. Results from a major rainstorm indicated that old water dominated the stormflow response of the watershed, although the new water contribution approached 40% at the hydrograph peak. Stormflow at Reedy Creek appears to result from saturation overland flow from variable source areas which include the stream channels and a significant part of the riparian wetland area. This response appears to be attributable to the transient dynamics of the shallow groundwater flow system and to the formation of localized groundwater mounds which raise the water-table to the wetland surface. 相似文献
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106.
Kent C. Condie Anne Davaille Richard C. Aster Nicholas Arndt 《International Geology Review》2015,57(11-12):1341-1348
There is a correlation of global large igneous province (LIP) events with zircon age peaks at 2700, 2500, 2100, 1900, 1750, 1100, and 600 and also probably at 3450, 3000, 2000, and 300 Ma. Power spectral analyses of LIP event distributions suggest important periodicities at 250, 150, 100, 50, and 25 million years with weaker periodicities at 70–80, 45, and 18–20 Ma. The 25 million year periodicity is important only in the last 300 million years. Some LIP events are associated with granite-forming (zircon-producing) events and others are not, and LIP events at 1900 and 600 Ma correlate with peaks in craton collision frequency. LIP age peaks are associated with supercontinent rifting or breakup, but not dispersal, at 2450–2400, 2200, 1380, 1280, 800–750, and ≤200 Ma, and with supercontinent assembly at 1750 and 600 Ma. LIP peaks at 2700 and 2500 Ma and the valley between these peaks span the time of Neoarchaean supercraton assemblies. These observations are consistent with plume generation in the deep mantle operating independently of the supercontinent cycle and being controlled by lower-mantle and core-mantle boundary thermochemical dynamics. Two processes whereby plumes can impact continental assembly and breakup are (1) plumes may rise beneath supercontinents and initiate supercontinent breakup, and (2) plume ascent may increase the frequency of craton collisions and the rate of crustal growth by accelerating subduction. 相似文献
107.
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109.
Andrew D. Gronewold Vincent Fortin Brent Lofgren Anne Clites Craig A. Stow Frank Quinn 《Climatic change》2013,120(4):697-711
The North American Laurentian Great Lakes hold nearly 20 % of the earth’s unfrozen fresh surface water and have a length of coastline, and a coastal population, comparable to frequently-studied marine coasts. The surface water elevations of the Great Lakes, in particular, are an ideal metric for understanding impacts of climate change on large hydrologic systems, and for assessing adaption measures for absorbing those impacts. In light of the importance of the Great Lakes to the North American and global economies, the Great Lakes and the surrounding region also serve as an important benchmark for hydroclimate research, and offer an example of successful adaptive management under changing climate conditions. Here, we communicate some of the important lessons to be learned from the Great Lakes by examining how the coastline, water level, and water budget dynamics of the Great Lakes relate to other large coastal systems, along with implications for water resource management strategies and climate scenario-derived projections of future conditions. This improved understanding fills a critical gap in freshwater and marine global coastal research. 相似文献
110.