Spline models of contemporary, 2030, 2060 and 2090 climates for Mexico and their use in understanding climate-change impacts on the vegetation     

Cuauhtémoc Sáenz-Romero  Gerald E. Rehfeldt  Nicholas L. Crookston  Pierre Duval  Rémi St-Amant  Jean Beaulieu  Bryce A. Richardson 《Climatic change》2010,102(3-4):595-623

Spatial climate models were developed for México and its periphery (southern USA, Cuba, Belize and Guatemala) for monthly normals (1961–1990) of average, maximum and minimum temperature and precipitation using thin plate smoothing splines of ANUSPLIN software on ca. 3,800 observations. The fit of the model was generally good: the signal was considerably less than one-half of the number of observations, and reasonable standard errors for the surfaces would be less than 1°C for temperature and 10–15% for precipitation. Monthly normals were updated for three time periods according to three General Circulation Models and three emission scenarios. On average, mean annual temperature would increase 1.5°C by year 2030, 2.3°C by year 2060 and 3.7°C by year 2090; annual precipitation would decrease ?6.7% by year 2030, ?9.0% by year 2060 and ?18.2% by year 2090. By converting monthly means into a series of variables relevant to biology (e. g., degree-days > 5°C, aridity index), the models are directly suited for inferring plant–climate relationships and, therefore, in assessing impact of and developing programs for accommodating global warming. Programs are outlined for (a) assisting migration of four commercially important species of pine distributed in altitudinal sequence in Michoacán State (b) developing conservation programs in the floristically diverse Tehuacán Valley, and (c) perpetuating Pinus chiapensis, a threatened endemic. Climate surfaces, point or gridded climatic estimates and maps are available at http://forest.moscowfsl.wsu.edu/climate/.  相似文献   

Caracas, Venezuela, Site Effect Determination with Microtremors   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

A.-M. Duval  S. Vidal  J.-P. Méneroud  A. Singer  F. De Santis  C. Ramos  G. Romero  R. Rodriguez  A. Pernia  N. Reyes  C. Griman 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2001,158(12):2513-2523

—?Caracas 1967 earthquake caused heavy damage to multi-story buildings. In 1995, 184 microtremor measurement points were performed over the city. The measurement grid was more or less dense and covered the main part of the alluvial basin as well as surrounding rock basement. For each point, the horizontal record spectrum was divided by the vertical one (H/V ratio). Subsequently, the strongest value (Ao) of this ratio in a given frequency band was kept, as well as the frequency (Fo) where it occurred. Spatial interpolations of Ao and Fo were performed among all points of Palos Grandes district. A map was plotted representing a single surface where Ao is relief and Fo is represented by grey gradation. An alluvion thickness (H) map can be compared with this result. Damaged buildings are located on the same map. Fo decreases until 0.6?Hz when alluvion thickness (H) increases. Fo values fit with frequencies previously predicted from computation and with 1967 earthquake observations. Moreover, interpolation surfaces show that amplification (Ao) of H/V on microtremor is quite low above rock but is high on the south part of the basin. The maximum occurs over the non-urbanized zone. However the other area, where Ao is higher than 5, roughly corresponds to the location of the four collapsed buildings. Furthermore, the estimated natural frequency of these buildings was around Fo. Graphics showing H, Fo and Ao evolution through the basin were composed. Links between all these values are noticeable. Fo is claimed to be very similar to the resonance frequency of soil. As for Ao, it could be a fairly relevant sign of damage seriousness. Microtremor technique is an economic tool and it allows measurement grid as dense as desired. H/V ratio processing followed by interpolation of maximum values provides precise and useful information about expected site effect.  相似文献   

The paleolimnology of a small waterbody in the Pocono Mountains of Pennsylvania,USA: reconstructing 19th–20th century specific conductivity trends in relation to changing land use     

Anne-Marie Lott  Peter A. Siver  Laurence J. Marsicano  Kenneth P. Kodama  Robert E. Moeller 《Journal of Paleolimnology》1994,12(2):75-86

Remains of scaled chrysophytes, magnetic minerals and pollen were used to analyze the recent paleolimnological history of a small lake, Lake Waynewood, in the Pocono Mountains of Pennsylvania. Important shifts in all three variables were observed over the 133 years represented by the core. The most significant changes occurred near the turn of the century when the watershed was heavily logged. Before the logging event, species such asSynura sphagnicola, S. spinosa, Mallomonas galeiformis andM. duerrschmidtiae were co-dominant members of the flora. Subsequent to the deforestation of the watershed other taxa, includingM. crassisquama, M. caudata andS. petersenii, increased in relative importance. Concurrent with changes in the scaled chrysophytes was a six-fold increase in the concentrations of magnetic material, presumably the result of increased erosion caused by the logging. Changes in pollen grains also correlate well with the onset of the deforestation event. The scaled chrysophyte inferred specific conductivity of the lake has more than tripled, with the primary increase occurring concurrent with the commencement of logging and the increase in magnetic mineral material. The effects of other human-related disturbances are also discussed.  相似文献   

Mesquite (Prosopis glandulosa) germination and survival in black-grama (Bouteloua eriopoda) grassland: relations between microsite and heteromyid rodent (Dipodomys spp.) impact     

B.D. Duval  E. Jackson  W.G. Whitford   《Journal of Arid Environments》2005,62(4):541-554

Prosopis pallida H.B.K. is one of the most economically and ecologically important tree species in the arid and semi-arid lands of the American continent. Sections of P. pallida were used to describe its wood anatomy and to determine whether annual rings were visible or not. Results showed that P. pallida has well-differentiated annual growth rings and is therefore suitable for dendrochronological studies. Tree ring chronologies correlate well with precipitation events related to El Niño Southern Oscillation phases. A master chronology for the northern area of Peru was built with these data, and some physiological derivations from the anatomy of P. pallida wood are discussed.  相似文献   

[Without Title]     

Anne-Marie de Grosbois 《Environmental Geology》2006,50(8):1265-1269

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Effects of food particle size on Perca fluviatilis larval growth     

Lakhdar Tamazouzt  Claude Leray  Anne-Marie Escaffre  Denis Terver 《Aquatic Sciences - Research Across Boundaries》1998,60(2):89-98

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Reviews on books, internet and scientific media     

Grosbois de Anne-Marie  J. Rasanen  F. A. Assaad  P. E. LaMoreaux 《Environmental Geology》2007,51(6):1089-1091

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Borehole water and hydrologic model around the Nojima fault, SW Japan     

K. Fujimoto  A. Ueda  T. Ohtani  M. Takahashi  H. Ito  H. Tanaka  Anne-Marie Boullier 《Tectonophysics》2007,443(3-4):174

The active fault drilling at Nojima Hirabayashi after the 1995 Hyogoken-nanbu (Kobe) earthquake (M_JMA = 7.2) provides us with a unique opportunity to investigate subsurface fault structure and the in-situ properties of fault and fluid. The borehole intersected the fault gouge of the Nojima fault at a depth interval of 623 m to 625 m. The lithology is mostly Cretaceous granodiorite with some porphyry dikes.The fault core is highly permeable due to fracturing. The borehole water was sampled in 1996 and 2000 from the depth interval between 630 and 650 m, just below the fault core. The chemical and isotopic compositions were analyzed. Carbon and oxygen isotope ratios of carbonates from the fault core were analyzed to estimate the origin of fluid.The following conclusions were obtained. (1) The ionic and isotopic compositions of borehole water did not change from 1996 to 2000. They are mostly derived from local ground water as mentioned by Sato and Takahashi [Sato, T., Takahashi, M., 2000. Chemical and isotopic compositions of groundwater obtained from the Hirabayashi well. Geological Survey of Japan Interim Report No. EQ/00/1, 187–192.]. (2) Geochemical speciation revealed that the borehole water was derived from a relatively deep reservoir, which may be situated at a depth of 3 to 4 km where the temperature is about 80–90 °C. (3) The shallower part of the Nojima fault (shallower than the reservoir depth) has not been healed from the hydrological viewpoints 5 years after the event, in contrast to the rapid healing detected by S wave splitting [Tadokoro, K., Ando, M., 2002. Evidence for rapid fault healing derived from temporal changes in S wave splitting, Geophys. Res. Lett., 29, 10.1029/2001GL013644.]. (4) Precipitation of calcite from the present borehole water since drilling supports the idea of precipitation of some calcite in coseismic hydraulic fractures in the fault core [Boullier, A-M., Fujimoto, K., Ohtani, T., Roman-Ross, G., Lewin, E., Ito, H., Pezard, P., Ildefonse, B., 2004. Textural evidence for recent co-seismic circulation of fluids in the Nojima fault zone, Awaji Island, Japan., Tectonophysics, 378, 165–181.]. (5) Carbon and oxygen isotope ratios of calcite indicated that the meteoric water flux had been localized at the fault core. (6) A difference in the carbon isotope ratio between the footwall and the hanging wall suggests that the fault has been acted as a hydrologic barrier, although the permeability along the fault is still high.  相似文献   

Numerical analysis of seismic wave amplification in Nice (France) and comparisons with experiments   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

J. -F. Semblat  A. -M. Duval  P. Dangla 《Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering》2000,19(5):1543

The analysis of site effects is very important since the amplification of seismic motion in some specific areas can be very strong. In this paper, the site considered is located in the centre of Nice on the French Riviera. Site effects are investigated considering a numerical approach (Boundary Element Method) and are compared with experimental results. The experimental results are obtained thanks to real earthquakes (weak motion) and microtremor measurements. The investigation of seismic site effects through numerical approaches is interesting because it shows the dependency of the amplification level on such parameters as wave velocity in surface soil layers, velocity contrast with deep layers, seismic wave type, incidence and damping.In this specific area of Nice, experimental measurements obtained for weak motion lead to strong site effects. A one-dimensional (1D) analytical analysis of amplification does not give a satisfactory estimation of the maximum reached levels. A boundary element model is then proposed considering different wave types (SH, P, SV) as the seismic loading. The alluvial basin is successively assumed as an isotropic linear elastic medium and an isotropic linear viscoelastic solid with Zener type behaviour (standard solid). The influence of frequency and incidence is analysed. The thickness of the surface layer, its mechanical properties, its general shape as well as the seismic wave type involved have a great influence on the maximum amplification and the frequency for which it occurs. For real earthquakes, the numerical results are in very good agreement with experimental measurements for each motion component. The boundary element method leads to amplification values very close to the actual ones and much larger than those obtained in the 1D case. Two-dimensional basin effects are then very strong and are well reproduced numerically.  相似文献   

A 12,000-Year Pollen Record from Lake Maliq, Albania     

Michelle Denfle  Anne-Marie Lzine  Eric Fouache  Jean-Jacques Dufaure 《Quaternary Research》2000,54(3):423

Pollen data from Lake Maliq, the first from Albania, contribute new information to the discussion of the vegetational, hydrological, and climatological history of the Balkans since 12,000 yr B.P. During late-glacial time, a perennial lake expanded at Maliq. It was surrounded by a complex vegetation association composed of steppe and mixed forest elements. The highly diverse forest flora suggest that late-glacial forest refugia were more developed here at middle altitude, rather than at higher altitude as previously suggested. The forest developed after 9800 yr B.P., while the water level remained high in the Korçë basin until 5000 yr B.P. Different environmental conditions, characterized by lower available moisture and warmer winters, progressively took place after this date. Human activity in the Korçë basin ca. 4500 yr B.P. was coeval with conditions characterized by an increase in winter temperatures and a decrease in summer moisture.  相似文献