West African countries have been exposed to changes in rainfall patterns over the last decades, including a significant negative trend. This causes adverse effects on water resources of the region, for instance, reduced freshwater availability. Assessing and predicting large-scale total water storage (TWS) variations are necessary for West Africa, due to its environmental, social, and economical impacts. Hydrological models, however, may perform poorly over West Africa due to data scarcity. This study describes a new statistical, data-driven approach for predicting West African TWS changes from (past) gravity data obtained from the gravity recovery and climate experiment (GRACE), and (concurrent) rainfall data from the tropical rainfall measuring mission (TRMM) and sea surface temperature (SST) data over the Atlantic, Pacific, and Indian Oceans. The proposed method, therefore, capitalizes on the availability of remotely sensed observations for predicting monthly TWS, a quantity which is hard to observe in the field but important for measuring regional energy balance, as well as for agricultural, and water resource management. Major teleconnections within these data sets were identified using independent component analysis and linked via low-degree autoregressive models to build a predictive framework. After a learning phase of 72 months, our approach predicted TWS from rainfall and SST data alone that fitted to the observed GRACE-TWS better than that from a global hydrological model. Our results indicated a fit of 79 % and 67 % for the first-year prediction of the two dominant annual and inter-annual modes of TWS variations. This fit reduces to 62 % and 57 % for the second year of projection. The proposed approach, therefore, represents strong potential to predict the TWS over West Africa up to 2 years. It also has the potential to bridge the present GRACE data gaps of 1 month about each 162 days as well as a—hopefully—limited gap between GRACE and the GRACE follow-on mission over West Africa. The method presented could also be used to generate a near-real-time GRACE forecast over the regions that exhibit strong teleconnections. 相似文献
The mechanical efficiency of the biocementation process is directly related to the microstructural properties of the biocemented sand, such as the volume fraction of calcite, its distribution within the pore space (localized at the contact between grains, over the grain surfaces) and the contact properties: coordination number, contact surface area, contacts orientation and types of contact. In the present work, all these micromechanical properties are computed, for the first time, from 3D images obtained by X-ray tomography of intact biocemented sand samples. The evolution of all these properties with respect to the volume fraction of calcite is analyzed and compared between each other (from untreated sand to highly cemented sand). Whatever the volume fraction of calcite, it is shown that the precipitation of the calcite is localized at the contacts between grains. These results are confirmed by comparing our numerical results with analytical estimates assuming that the granular medium is made of periodic simple cubic arrangements of grains and by considering two extreme cases of precipitation: (1) The calcite is localized at the contact, and (2) the grains are covered by a uniform layer of calcite. In overall, the obtained results show that a small percentage of calcite is sufficient to get a large amount of cohesive contacts.
An experimental study has been performed to investigate the effect of the biocalcification process on the microstructural and the physical properties of biocemented Fontainebleau sand samples. The microstructural properties (porosity, volume fraction of calcite, total specific surface area, specific surface area of calcite, etc.) and the physical properties (permeability, effective diffusion) of the biocemented samples were computed for the first time from 3D images with a high-resolution images obtained by X-ray synchrotron microtomography. The evolution of all these properties with respect to the volume fraction of calcite is analysed and compared with success to experimental data, when it is possible. In general, our results point out that all the properties are strongly affected by the biocalcification process. Finally, all these numerical results from 3D images and experimental data were compared to numerical values or analytical estimates computed on idealized microstructures constituted of periodic overlapping and random non-overlapping arrangements of coated spheres. These comparisons show that these simple microstructures are sufficient to capture and to predict the main evolution of both microstructural and physical properties of biocemented sands for the whole range of volume fraction of calcite investigated. 相似文献
The authors recently proposed a new method for detecting tsunamis using high-frequency (HF) radar observations, referred to as “time-correlation algorithm” (TCA; Grilli et al. Pure Appl Geophys 173(12):3895–3934, 2016a, 174(1): 3003–3028, 2017). Unlike standard algorithms that detect surface current patterns, the TCA is based on analyzing space-time correlations of radar signal time series in pairs of radar cells, which does not require inverting radial surface currents. This was done by calculating a contrast function, which quantifies the change in pattern of the mean correlation between pairs of neighboring cells upon tsunami arrival, with respect to a reference correlation computed in the recent past. In earlier work, the TCA was successfully validated based on realistic numerical simulations of both the radar signal and tsunami wave trains. Here, this algorithm is adapted to apply to actual data from a HF radar installed in Tofino, BC, for three test cases: (1) a simulated far-field tsunami generated in the Semidi Subduction Zone in the Aleutian Arc; (2) a simulated near-field tsunami from a submarine mass failure on the continental slope off of Tofino; and (3) an event believed to be a meteotsunami, which occurred on October 14th, 2016, off of the Pacific West Coast and was measured by the radar. In the first two cases, the synthetic tsunami signal is superimposed onto the radar signal by way of a current memory term; in the third case, the tsunami signature is present within the radar data. In light of these test cases, we develop a detection methodology based on the TCA, using a correlation contrast function, and show that in all three cases the algorithm is able to trigger a timely early warning. 相似文献
Streamline tracing on irregular grids requires reliable interpolation of velocity fields. We propose a new method for direct
streamline tracing on polygon and polytope cells. While some numerical methods provide a basis function that can be used for
interpolation, other methods provide only the fluxes at the faces of the elements. We introduce the concept of full- and raw-field
methods. Full-field methods have built-in interpolation but are often not defined on general grids such as polygonal and polyhedral
grids which we examine here. Also, reliability issues may arise on non-simplicial meshes in terms of not being able to reproduce
constant velocity fields. We propose an interpolation in H(div) and H(curl) valid on general grids that is based on barycentric coordinates and that reproduces uniform flow. The interpolation
can be used to compute the streamline directly on the complex cell geometry. The method generalizes to convex polytopes in
3D, with a restriction on the polytope topology near corners that is shown to be satisfied by several popular grid types.
Numerical results confirm that the method is applicable to general grids and preserves uniform flow. 相似文献
Simple yet physically based models to evaluate stream–aquifer interactions during a flooding event subject to triangular stream stage variation were developed in this study. The results from the developed models were compared with other analytical and numerical solutions and noted to be very accurate. The study fills an important gap with regard to available analytical and semi-analytical solutions for modeling stream–aquifer interactions, which can be used for evaluating numerical codes. In particular, the developed models are very useful to obtain preliminary insights with regard to bank storage in ungaged watersheds as required for watershed management and planning studies in rapidly urbanizing watersheds. The utility of the model is illustrated by applying it to study the effects of urbanization on stream–aquifer interactions in the Arroyo Colorado River Watershed along the US–Mexico border region. The results indicate that increased urbanization reduces the amount of influx into the banks. The reduction in flood passage time was noted to have a greater impact than the associated rise in stage. The presence of a semi-permeable barrier was seen to mask the effects of urbanization. The model results also implicitly highlight the importance of how water quality variations caused due to urbanization can affect stream–aquifer interactions. 相似文献