Understanding Climatic Impacts, Vulnerabilities, and Adaptation in the United States: Building a Capacity for Assessment     

Edward A. Parson  Robert W. Corell  Eric J. Barron  Virginia Burkett  Anthony Janetos  Linda Joyce  Thomas R. Karl  Michael C. MacCracken  Jerry Melillo  M. Granger Morgan  David S. Schimel  Thomas Wilbanks 《Climatic change》2003,57(1-2):9-42

Based on the experience of the U.S. National Assessment, we propose a program of research and analysis to advance capability for assessment of climate impacts, vulnerabilities, and adaptation options. We identify specific priorities for scientific research on the responses of ecological and socioeconomic systems to climate and other stresses; for improvement in the climatic inputs to impact assessments; and for further development of assessment methods to improve their practical utility to decision-makers. Finally, we propose a new institutional model for assessment, based principally on regional efforts that integrate observations, research, data, applications, and assessment on climate and linked environmental-change issues. The proposed program will require effective collaboration between scientists, resource managers, and other stakeholders, all of whose expertise is needed to define and prioritize key regional issues, characterize relevant uncertainties, and assess potential responses. While both scientifically and organizationally challenging, such an integrated program holds the best promise of advancing our capacity to manage resources and the economy adaptively under a changing climate.  相似文献   

利用遥感监测和分析珠江三角洲的城市扩张过程——以东莞市为例   总被引：23，自引：3，他引：23  

黎夏  叶嘉安 《地理研究》1997,16(4):56-62

伴随着经济的快速增长,珠江三角洲近年来出现了迅速的城市化以及乡村城市化的过程。沿着城镇边缘和公路两旁,大片的农田被侵占来单方面地满足城市开发的需要,忽略了粮食产量减少以及环境质量恶化等问题。利用遥感可以有效地监测珠江三角洲的城市扩张过程。在遥感多时相监测的基础上通过熵的计算,可以定量地描述城市扩张的空间规律及扩散过程。  相似文献   

Aspects of landslide activity in the Mercantour Massif and the French Riviera, southeastern France     

Maurice Julian  Edward Anthony   《Geomorphology》1996,15(3-4)

Landslides pose serious hazards in the Mercantour Massif and the French Riviera in southeastern France. The context for landslide development is a particularly favourable one, both in terms of the geomorphic and structural setting of this Alpine region, and of the climatic, hydrologic and seismic factors that trigger such failures. High mountain relief and steep slopes constitute a very favourable setting for failures affecting massive basement rocks and a very heterogeneous sedimentary cover whose resistance has been weakened by weathering, tectonic stresses, and cambering due to gravity. Among trigger factors, the important appears to be the precipitation regime. Rainfalls are commonly concentrated into short high-intensity downpours or into bursts of sustained falls over periods of several days, leading to soil saturation and lubrication of potential failure planes. Snowmelt also contributes to these lubrication processes. Earthquakes affecting this region are also a potentially important landslide trigger. However, while a lot of work has been done on the relationship between extreme climatic events and landslide activity, much less is known of the trigger effects of earthquakes.Both the background factors that promote landslide development and the factors that trigger such failures are discussed within a time frame of landslide development. Progressive changes in soil strength due to weathering, rock cambering and shattering processes lead to long-term reduction in resistance. Superimposed on these progressive changes are episodic triggerings related to rainfall and snowmelt episodes or earthquakes. Landslides may occur as shallow, low-volume “one-time” events or may be part of a progressive long-term failure. The former generally affect unconsolidated or clay-rich sedimentary rocks, especially on the coastal hillslopes of the French Riviera. A notable exception of a major, voluminous “one-time” event was the submarine landslide of the Var Delta in 1979. This landslide, like numerous other smaller subaerial landslides onland, was largely a result of human activities. This landslide occurred following extensive modification of the Var Delta and, notably, reclamation of the steep, fine-grained delta front. Deforestation, quarrying, urbanisation and road network developments are various ways in which human activity has destabilized the coastal hillslopes, favouring the development of numerous shallow landslides following each episode of heavy rainfall.Progressive landslides on the upper hillslopes of the Mercantour Massif have developed over long time spans (order of 10¹ to 10⁵ yrs) and have involved more complex interactions between lithological controls, slope characteristics and trigger factors. The Collelongue and Bois de Malbosc landslides have evolved into now stable failures buttressed by resistant migmatitic diorites or amphibolites. The more voluminous and well monitored Clapière landslide is a relatively simple rotational landslide of the toe-failure type. This active landslide poses a serious to inhabitants and infrastructure in the Tinée Valley. The importance of continued field monitoring, modelling and mapping of landslides and their hazards is emphasised.  相似文献   

Responses of interrill runoff and erosion rates to vegetation change in southern Arizona   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Anthony J. Parsons  Athol D. Abrahams  John Wainwright 《Geomorphology》1996,14(4):311-317

Vegetation change, fi-om grassland to shrubland, has occurred over much of the Sonoran and Chihuahuan Deserts during the past century. The effect of this vegetation change on interrill runoff and erosion was examined by conducting rainfall-simulation experiments on large runoff plots on contemporary grassland and shrubland hillslopes. These experiments show that, compared to the grassland, the interrill portions of shrubland hillslopes (1) have higher runoff rates, (2) experience equilibrium runoff conditions much more frequently, (3) exhibit higher overland flow velocities, and (4) are subject to greater rates of erosion. The environmental change that has led to the vegetation change has been relatively minor, but its geomorphic impact has been substantial.  相似文献   

Behavioral geography, cartography, and spatial cognition: A review essay     

Anthony Williams 《GeoJournal》1997,43(3):294-296

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Short‐term intertidal bar mobility on a ridge‐and‐runnel beach,Merlimont, northern France     

E. J. Anthony  F. Levoy  D. Monfort  C. Degryse‐Kulkarni 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2005,30(1):81-93

Digital elevation models and topographic pro?les of a beach with intertidal bar and trough (ridge‐and‐runnel) morphology in Merlimont, northern France, were analysed in order to assess patterns of cross‐shore and longshore intertidal bar mobility. The beach exhibited a pronounced dual bar–trough system that showed cross‐shore stationarity. The bars and troughs were, however, characterized by signi?cant longshore advection of sand under the in?uence of suspension by waves and transport by strong tide‐ and wind‐driven longshore currents. Pro?le changes were due in part to the longshore migration of medium‐sized bedforms. The potential for cross‐shore bar migration appears to be mitigated by the large size of the two bars relative to incident wave energy, which is modulated by high vertical tidal excursion rates on this beach due to the large tidal range (mean spring tidal range = 8·3 m). Cross‐shore bar migration is also probably hindered by the well‐entrenched troughs which are maintained by channelled high‐energy intertidal ?ows generated by swash bores and by tidal discharge and drainage. The longshore migration of intertidal bars affecting Merlimont beach is embedded in a regional coastal sand transport pathway involving tidal and wind‐forced northward residual ?ows affecting the rectilinear northern French coast in the eastern English Channel. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Counting Beans: Agrobiodiversity,Indigeneity, and Agrarian Reform     

J. Anthony Abbott 《The Professional geographer》2005,57(2):198-212

In‐field conservation of locally domesticated crop varieties ameliorates agrobiodiversity losses, but the interaction among nationally regulated socioeconomic factors at the local scale tends to discourage this. Analyses of household surveys conducted in Ecuador demonstrate that state and nongovernmental institutions interact to discourage cultivation of locally domesticated varieties of beans (Phaseolus spp.). Land privatization, agricultural extension, and credit programs favor market production of introduced modern bean varieties, and locally domesticated varieties are noted for favorable nutrition, culinary, and agroecological qualities. Resolving disconnections between the market and social values for landrace beans may provide agrobiodiversity conservation opportunities.  相似文献   

Highly siderophile element and 187Re‐187Os isotopic systematics of ungrouped achondrite Northwest Africa 7325: Evidence for complex planetary processes     

Gregory J. Archer  Richard J. Walker  Anthony J. Irving 《Meteoritics & planetary science》2019,54(5):1042-1050

The abundances of highly siderophile elements (HSE; including Re, Os, Ir, Ru, Pt, and Pd) and ¹⁸⁷Re‐¹⁸⁷Os isotopic systematics were determined for two fragments from ungrouped achondrite NWA 7325. Rhenium‐Os systematics are consistent with closed‐system behavior since formation or soon after. The abundances of the HSE were therefore largely unaffected by late‐stage secondary processes such as shock or terrestrial weathering. As an olivine gabbro cumulate, this meteorite has a bulk composition consistent with derivation from a body that produced a core, mantle, and crust. Also consistent with derivation from a body that produced a core, both fragments of NWA 7325 have HSE abundances that are highly depleted compared to bulk chondrites. One fragment has ~0.002× CI chondrite Ir and relative HSE abundances similar to bulk chondrites. The other fragment has ~0.0002× CI chondrite Ir and relative HSE abundances that are fractionated compared to bulk chondrites. The chondritic relative HSE abundances of the fragment characterized by higher HSE abundances most likely reflect the addition of exogenous chondritic material during or after crystallization by surface impacts. The HSE in the other fragment is likely more representative of the parent body crust. One formation model that can broadly account for the HSE abundances in this fragment is multiple episodes of low‐pressure metal‐silicate equilibration, followed by limited late accretion and mantle homogenization. Given the different HSE compositions of the two adjoining fragments, this meteorite provides an example of the overprint of global processes (differentiation and late accretion) by localized impact contamination.  相似文献   

An analytical approach to ascertain saturation‐excess versus infiltration‐excess overland flow in urban and reference landscapes     

Ryan D. Stewart  Aditi S. Bhaskar  Anthony J. Parolari  Dustin L. Herrmann  Jinshi Jian  Laura A. Schifman  William D. Shuster 《水文研究》2019,33(26):3349-3363

Uncontrolled overland flow drives flooding, erosion, and contaminant transport, with the severity of these outcomes often amplified in urban areas. In pervious media such as urban soils, overland flow is initiated via either infiltration‐excess (where precipitation rate exceeds infiltration capacity) or saturation‐excess (when precipitation volume exceeds soil profile storage) mechanisms. These processes call for different management strategies, making it important for municipalities to discern between them. In this study, we derived a generalized one‐dimensional model that distinguishes between infiltration‐excess overland flow (IEOF) and saturation‐excess overland flow (SEOF) using Green–Ampt infiltration concepts. Next, we applied this model to estimate overland flow generation from pervious areas in 11 U.S. cities. We used rainfall forcing that represented low‐ and high‐intensity events and compared responses among measured urban versus predevelopment reference soil hydraulic properties. The derivation showed that the propensity for IEOF versus SEOF is related to the equivalence between two nondimensional ratios: (a) precipitation rate to depth‐weighted hydraulic conductivity and (b) depth of soil profile restrictive layer to soil capillary potential. Across all cities, reference soil profiles were associated with greater IEOF for the high‐intensity set of storms, and urbanized soil profiles tended towards production of SEOF during the lower intensity set of storms. Urban soils produced more cumulative overland flow as a fraction of cumulative precipitation than did reference soils, particularly under conditions associated with SEOF. These results will assist cities in identifying the type and extent of interventions needed to manage storm water produced from pervious areas.  相似文献   

城市居民压力源对幸福感的影响研究——基于乡村旅游休闲参与的角度     

张圆刚  黄业坚  程静静  余向洋  陈希 《地理研究》2019,38(4):971-987

居民幸福感研究日益受到重视,以往研究多是从自然环境、社会人文环境和城市化进程等方面探讨大尺度空间环境因素对城市居民幸福感的影响。结合乡村旅游的角度探讨城市居民幸福感的影响研究,目前还较少。运用SEM分析方法,探究处于多维压力之下的城市居民旅游者如何通过前往乡村进行旅游休闲活动提升幸福感,进行模型构建与分析,结果显示：① 压力源对调适策略有显著正向影响,对休闲参与不显著,但不同群体影响差异显著,压力调适对休闲参与有显著正向影响;② 休闲参与对心流体验和幸福感具有显著正向关系,且心流体验对幸福感具有显著正向影响;③ 心流体验对休闲效益具有正向显著影响,且休闲效益对幸福感具有正向显著影响;④ 心流体验在休闲参与对幸福感、休闲效益在心流体验对幸福感均具有显著中介效应;⑤ 旅游者不同背景变项在压力调适、休闲参与及幸福感等分别呈现不同程度的显著差异。  相似文献