The impact of changes in atmospheric and land surface physics on the thermohaline circulation response to anthropogenic forcing in HadCM2 and HadCM3     

R. B. Thorpe 《Climate Dynamics》2005,24(5):449-456

We have undertaken a comparative study of the mechanisms which drive the response of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC) to a fourfold increase in CO₂ over 70 years with stabilisation thereafter in HadCM2 and HadCM3. In both models, the THC changes are driven by surface flux forcing, with advection (and diffusion in HadCM2) acting in the opposite sense to limit the circulation change. In both cases, heat fluxes are more important than those of freshwater. We find that different patterns of heat flux forcing in HadCM2 and HadCM3 are the prime determinants of the differing response in the two models. The increased northerly component to the near surface winds (associated with an increase in reflective low level cloud), leads to enhanced heat loss in the west-central North Atlantic, which in turn tends to steepen the steric gradient and strengthen the THC. By contrast, in HadCM3 the winds become more westerly rather than northerly, there is no dynamically-forced enhancement of surface heat loss, and the heat flux in the North Atlantic continues to be strongly positive, relative to the control, leading to a reduction in the meridional steric gradient, and a weaker overturning circulation. Differences in atmospheric response patterns appear to be caused by improvements to atmospheric and land surface physics, and suggest that the THC response in HadCM2 is less credible than in HadCM3.  相似文献   

An AOGCM simulation of the climate response to a volcanic super-eruption   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Gareth S. Jones  Jonathan M. Gregory  Peter A. Stott  Simon F. B. Tett  Robert B. Thorpe 《Climate Dynamics》2005,25(7-8):725-738

Volcanic ‘super-eruptions’ have been suggested to have significantly influenced the Earth’s climate, perhaps causing glaciations and impacting on the human population. Climatic changes following a hypothetical ‘super-eruption’ are simulated using a coupled atmosphere ocean general circulation model, incorporating scaled volcanic stratospheric aerosols. Assumptions are made about the stratospheric sulphate aerosol loading, size distribution, lifetime, chemical make up and spatial distribution. As this study is concentrating on the physical climatological impacts over long timescales, microphysics and chemical interactive processes are not simulated. Near-surface temperatures fall by as much as 10 K globally for a few months and a considerable deviation from normal temperatures continues for several decades. A warming pattern is evident over northern land masses during the winter due to increased longwave forcing and a positive AO mode. The overturning rate of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation doubles in intensity. Snow and ice increases in extent to a maximum coverage of 35% of the Earth. Despite these and other impacts longer term climatic changes that could lead to a transition to a glaciation do not occur, for present day boundary conditions and one possible plausible aerosol loading.  相似文献   

Mining candidate causal relationships in movement patterns     

Susanne Bleisch  Matt Duckham  Antony Galton  Patrick Laube  Jarod Lyon 《International journal of geographical information science》2014,28(2):363-382

In many applications, the environmental context for and drivers of movement patterns are just as important as the patterns themselves. This article adapts standard data mining techniques, combined with a foundational ontology of causation, with the objective of helping domain experts identify candidate causal relationships between movement patterns and their environmental context. In addition to data about movement and its dynamic environmental context, our approach requires as input definitions of the states and events of interest. The technique outputs causal and causal-like relationships of potential interest, along with associated measures of support and confidence. As a validation of our approach, the analysis is applied to real data about fish movement in the Murray River in Australia. The results demonstrate that the technique is capable of identifying statistically significant patterns of movement indicative of causal and causal-like relationships.  相似文献   

What determines perceived value of seasonal climate forecasts? A theoretical analysis     

Antony Millner  Richard Washington   《Global Environmental Change》2011,21(1):209-218

Seasonal forecasts have potential value as tools for the management of risks due to inter-annual climate variability and iterative adaptation to climate change. Despite their potential, forecasts are not widely used, in part due to poor performance and lack of relevance to specific users’ decision problems, and in part due to a variety of economic and behavioural factors. In this paper a theoretical model of perceived forecast value is proposed and applied to a stylized portfolio-type decision problem with wide applicability to actual forecast users, with a view to obtaining a more complete picture of the determinants of perceived value. The effects of user wealth, risk aversion, and perceived forecast trustworthiness, and presentational parameters, such as the position of forecast parameter categories, and the size of probability categories, on perceived value is investigated. Analysis of the model provides several strong qualitative predictions of how perceived forecast value depends on these factors. These predictions may be used to generate empirical hypotheses which offer the chance of evaluating the model's assumptions, and suggest several means of improving understanding of perceived value based on qualitative features of the results.  相似文献   

Do probabilistic expert elicitations capture scientists’ uncertainty about climate change?   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Antony Millner  Raphael Calel  David A. Stainforth  George MacKerron 《Climatic change》2013,116(2):427-436

Expert elicitation studies have become important barometers of scientific knowledge about future climate change (Morgan and Keith, Environ Sci Technol 29(10), 1995; Reilly et al., Science 293(5529):430–433, 2001; Morgan et al., Climate Change 75(1–2):195–214, 2006; Zickfeld et al., Climatic Change 82(3–4):235–265, 2007, Proc Natl Acad Sci 2010; Kriegler et al., Proc Natl Acad Sci 106(13):5041–5046, 2009). Elicitations incorporate experts’ understanding of known flaws in climate models, thus potentially providing a more comprehensive picture of uncertainty than model-driven methods. The goal of standard elicitation procedures is to determine experts’ subjective probabilities for the values of key climate variables. These methods assume that experts’ knowledge can be captured by subjective probabilities—however, foundational work in decision theory has demonstrated this need not be the case when their information is ambiguous (Ellsberg, Q J Econ 75(4):643–669, 1961). We show that existing elicitation studies may qualitatively understate the extent of experts’ uncertainty about climate change. We designed a choice experiment that allows us to empirically determine whether experts’ knowledge about climate sensitivity (the equilibrium surface warming that results from a doubling of atmospheric CO₂ concentration) can be captured by subjective probabilities. Our results show that, even for this much studied and well understood quantity, a non-negligible proportion of climate scientists violate the choice axioms that must be satisfied for subjective probabilities to adequately describe their beliefs. Moreover, the cause of their violation of the axioms is the ambiguity in their knowledge. We expect these results to hold to a greater extent for less understood climate variables, calling into question the veracity of previous elicitations for these quantities. Our experimental design provides an instrument for detecting ambiguity, a valuable new source of information when linking climate science and climate policy which can help policy makers select decision tools appropriate to our true state of knowledge.  相似文献   

An ocean observation system for monitoring the affects of climate change on the ecology and sustainability of pelagic fisheries in the Pacific Ocean     

Simon J. Nicol  Valerie Allain  Graham M. Pilling  Jeff Polovina  Marta Coll  Johann Bell  Paul Dalzell  Peter Sharples  Robert Olson  Shane Griffiths  Jeffrey M. Dambacher  Jock Young  Antony Lewis  John Hampton  Jesus Jurado Molina  Simon Hoyle  Karine Briand  Nic Bax  Patrick Lehodey  Peter Williams 《Climatic change》2013,119(1):131-145

Climate change presents an emerging challenge to the sustainable management of tuna fisheries, and robust information is essential to ensure future sustainability. Climate and harvest affect tuna stocks, populations of non-target, dependent species and the ecosystem. To provide relevant advice we need an improved understanding of oceanic ecosystems and better data to parameterise the models that forecast the impacts of climate change. Currently ocean-wide data collection in the Pacific Ocean is primarily restricted to oceanographic data. However, the fisheries observer programs that operate in the region offer an opportunity to collect the additional information on the mid and upper trophic levels of the ecosystem that is necessary to complement this physical data, including time-series of distribution, abundance, size, composition and biological information on target and non-target species and mid trophic level organisms. These observer programs are in their infancy, with limited temporal and spatial distribution but recent international and national policy decisions have been made to expand their coverage. We identify a number of actions to initiate this monitoring including: consolidating collaborations to ensure the use of best quality data; developing consistency between sub-regional observer programmes to ensure that they meet the objectives of ecosystem monitoring; interrogating of existing time series to determine the most appropriate spatial template for monitoring; and exploring existing ecosystem models to identify suitable indicators of ecosystem status and change. The information obtained should improve capacity to develop fisheries management policies that are resilient and can be adapted to climate change.  相似文献   

Fisheries and failing states: The case of Sierra Leone     

Andy Thorpe  David Whitmarsh  Ernest Ndomahina  Andrew Baio  Miatta Kemokai  Thomas Lebbie 《Marine Policy》2009

Marine fisheries play an important role in the economy of Sierra Leone, supporting livelihoods and contributing significantly to food security. This paper looks in detail at how the performance of fisheries was impacted by the ten year civil war, an event which contributed to the country's reputation for being a “failed state”. The paper focuses mainly on the artisanal fisheries sector, which employs the majority of the country's coastal population, and demonstrates how the conflict caused major social dislocation to fishing communities as well as reducing the productive capacity of the fleet. The paper concludes with a discussion of the policy challenges now facing Sierra Leone, particularly the prevention of resource looting through illegal fishing of the offshore stocks and the development of strategies to enable the potential wealth of these fisheries to be captured.  相似文献   

Responsibility and Editorship     

Antony R. Orme 《The Professional geographer》1990,42(3):361-363

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Discussion of “tectonic activity in West Africa and the Gulf of Guinea since Jurassic times — An explanation based on membrane tectonics” by S.J. Freeth     

R.S. Thorpe  J.B. Wright 《Earth and Planetary Science Letters》1979,42(2):327-328

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Flexible multimethod approach for seismic site characterization     

Stephenson  William J.  Yong  Alan  Martin  Antony 《Journal of Seismology》2022,26(4):687-711

Journal of Seismology - We describe the flexible multimethod seismic site characterization technique for obtaining shear-wave velocity (VS) profiles and derivative information, such as the...  相似文献