Estimating return periods for daily precipitation extreme events over the Brazilian Amazon     

Eliane Barbosa Santos  Paulo Sérgio Lucio  Cláudio Moisés Santos e Silva 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2016,126(3-4):585-595

  相似文献   

Reliability of water content estimation by profile probe and its effect on slope stability     

Lucio Di Matteo  Cristina Pauselli  Daniela Valigi  Maurizio Ercoli  Mauro Rossi  Giacomo Guerra  Costanza Cambi  Remo Ricco  Giuseppe Vinti 《Landslides》2018,15(1):173-180

Shallow landslide failures are distributed worldwide and cause economic losses and fatalities. A proper evaluation of the possible occurrence of shallow landslides requires reliable characterization of water content. Volumetric water content (θ) is commonly estimated using dielectric sensors, which use manufacturers’ calibration curves developed for specific soil types. In this study, we present the experimental results achieved during a laboratory calibration of a capacitance probe (PR2/6 probe), tested on two sandy soils widely outcropping in Central Italy. The proposed equations demonstrate a more reliable estimation of θ with respect to the generalized soil equation provided by the manufacturer, which overestimates θ by up to 10 percentage points. Such overestimation could affect the evaluation of suction stress in partially saturated shallow soils affecting the slope stability analysis. Although the use of θ from correct calibration equations provides less precautionary factor of safety values, a reliable evaluation of the soil moisture condition is fundamental when mapping and predicting the spatial and temporal occurrence of shallow landslides. The use of the PR2/6 probe with the appropriate soil calibration equations in early warning monitoring systems will provide a more reliable forecast, minimizing the number of false alarms.  相似文献   

Biogenic stalactites in submarine caves at the Cape of Otranto (SE Italy): dating and hypothesis on their formation     

Genuario Belmonte  Gianmarco Ingrosso  Marco Poto  Gianluca Quarta  Marisa D'Elia  Raffaele Onorato  & Lucio Calcagnile 《Marine Ecology》2009,30(3):376-382

Submarine caves at the Cape of Otranto (SE, Italy) host pseudostalactites. Only recently have they been recognised as originating mainly from the marine tube worm Protula tubularia (Serpulidae, Polychaeta). Their formation depends on the adaptability, life history and behaviour of that species in the cave habitat. The dating of calcareous tubes in the pseudostalactite core represents the first attempt to describe the formation of such bio-construction, and the gregarious behaviour of the species. Calcareous tubes along the core axis of three pseudostalactites removed from the cave lu Lampiùne (Otranto, South East Italy) have been dated using the ¹⁴C method. Measures established ages from 2600 to 5000 years for the three structures. This extremely long period (when compared with the life span of each worm) suggests that each tube aggregation is the result of punctuated growth periods alternated with long standstill phases. At the end of a growth period, each tube aggregation was covered with a brownish concretion, completing the pseudostalactite.  相似文献   

Global and hemispheric temperatures revisited     

Carlos Gay-Garcia  Francisco Estrada  Armando Sánchez 《Climatic change》2009,94(3-4):333-349

To characterize observed global and hemispheric temperatures, previous studies have proposed two types of data-generating processes, namely, random walk and trend-stationary, offering contrasting views regarding how the climate system works. Here we present an analysis of the time series properties of global and hemispheric temperatures using modern econometric techniques. Results show that: The temperature series can be better described as trend-stationary processes with a one-time permanent shock which cannot be interpreted as part of the natural variability; climate change has affected the mean of the processes but not their variability; it has manifested in two stages in global and Northern Hemisphere temperatures during the last century, while a second stage is yet possible in the Southern Hemisphere; in terms of Article 2 of the Framework Convention on Climate Change it can be argued that significant (dangerous) anthropogenic interference with the climate system has already occurred.  相似文献   

On Potential Spectroscopic Detection of Microfossils on Mars     

Giuseppe A. Marzo  Romolo Politi  Armando Blanco  Rosario Brunetto  Sergio Fonti  Vincenzo Orofino 《Earth, Moon, and Planets》2007,101(3-4):127-140

There is much evidence about the ancient presence of water on Mars and it is reasonable to suppose that simple forms of life may have developed during the geological evolution of the planet. In such a case traces of this extinct life could still be present on the planet in form of microfossils included into some geological layer. The rover payloads planned for the next decades will include spectrometers in order to accomplish various scientific tasks. In this respect, we have developed a quantitative model for microfossil inclusions into a crystalline matrix. Such a method foresees some visible effects on measurements obtained via spectroscopic techniques such as infrared reflectance and Raman spectroscopy. In this work we present the quantitative model of the fossilization process and the effects that the microfossil inclusions should have in the real spectra, evaluated by means of computer simulations. Preliminary measurements, in order to provide examples of future model testing, have been performed on samples of homogeneous composition, but with detectable microfossils content, collected at the K–T sequence placed near Gubbio (Italy). The preliminary results are presented and discussed in order to investigate the potential application of such spectroscopic techniques for the detection of extinct life.  相似文献   

Long-term volcanic hazard forecasts based on Somma-Vesuvio past eruptive activity     

Lucio Lirer  Paola Petrosino  Ines Alberico  Immacolata Postiglione 《Bulletin of Volcanology》2001,63(1):45-60

  相似文献   

Calcareous nannofossils and the Santonian/Campanian and Campanian/Maastrichtian boundaries on the Brazilian Continental Margin: historical overview and state of the art     

Armando Scarparo Cunha  Rogério Loureiro Antunes  Jackie A. Burnett 《Cretaceous Research》1997,18(6):823-832

Recognition of the Campanian stage on the Brazilian Continental Margin, using calcareous nannofossils, has been historically problematic. This paper constitutes an overview of earlier works, showing how nannofossil biostratigraphic ideas have evolved since Troelsen & Quadros provided the first biozonation of this region in 1971. Recent studied have provided data which have helped to clarify these apparent biostratigraphic problems, and allows this region to be placed in a global biostratigraphic context.The earliest researchers identified the Santonian/Campanian boundary by the last occurrences of ‘Lithastrinus grillii’ andPetrobrasiella venata. P. venatawas later abandoned as an index species due to its rarity and, instead, the last occurrences ofMarthasterites furcatusand ‘Lithastrinus grillii’ became the most-used markers. However, the stratigraphic age of these biohorizons diverged from those quoted in the literature. In the Brazilian basins, these extinctions, rather than having occurred in the Campanian as was recorded elsewhere, were considered to mark the top of the Santonian, as suggested by correlations with other microfossil groups (primarily foraminifera and palynomorphs). To explain this phenomenon, the existence of a condensed sequence was postulated for most of the Brazilian marginal basins, where the uppermost Santonian deposits were apparently indistinguishable from those of the lowermost Campanian. In line with current correlations presented in the nannofossil literature, and with new information obtained from core and side-wall samples, it is now believed that the extinction of these speciesdidoccur in the Campanian in the Brazilian basins, whilst the last occurrence ofLithastrinus moratus(previously misidentified asLithastrinus grillii) has become a useful Santonian marker. Thus the Santonian/Campanian boundary in Brazil lies in a stratigraphic position similar to elsewhere in nannofossil terms, that is below CC18.The Campanian/Maastrichtian boundary was initially characterised in nannofossil terms in Brazil by the last occurrence ofBroinsonia parca constricta, and later by the last occurrence ofEiffellithus eximius. Recently acquired data has shown that the sequence of events in the Brazilian marginal basins is similar to that of the Sissingh/Perch-Nielsen standard biozonation scheme through this interval. Again, correlations in the literature with the recently defined boundary (in macrofossil terms) thus allow the boundary to be determined between the last occurrences ofBroinsonia parca constrictaandUniplanarius trifidus, that is, in CC23b.  相似文献   

Source history of the 1905 great Mongolian earthquakes (Tsetserleg, Bolnay)   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Antoine Schlupp  Armando Cisternas 《Geophysical Journal International》2007,169(3):1115-1131

Two great Mongolian earthquakes, Tsetserleg and Bolnay, occurred on 1905 July 9 and 23. We determined the source history of these events using body waveform inversion. The Tsetserleg rupture (azimuth N60°) correspond to a N60° oriented branch of the long EW oriented Bolnay fault.
Historical seismograms recorded by Wiechert instruments are digitized and corrected for the geometrical deformation due to the recording system. We use predictive filters to recover the signals lost at the minute marks.
The total rupture length for the Tsetserleg earthquake may reach up to 190 km, in order to explain the width of the recorded body waves. This implies adding 60 km to the previously mapped fault. The rupture propagation is mainly eastward. It starts at the southwest of the central subsegment, showing a left lateral strike-slip with a reverse component. The total duration of the modelled source function is 65 s. The seismic moment deduced from the inversion is 10²¹ N m, giving a magnitude   M _w = 8  .
The nucleation of the Bolnay earthquake was at the intersection between the main fault (375 km left lateral strike-slip) and the Teregtiin fault (N160°, 80 km long right lateral strike-slip with a vertical component near the main fault). The rupture was bilateral along the main fault: 100 km to the west and 275 km to east. It also propagated 80 km to the southeast along the Teregtiin fault. The source duration was 115 s. The moment magnitude Mw varies between 8.3 and 8.5.
The nucleation and rupture depths remain uncertain. We tested three cases: (1) nucleation and rupture depth limited to the seismogenic zone; (2) nucleation in the seismogenic zone and rupture propagation going to the base of the crust and (3) nucleation within the crust–upper mantle interface and rupture propagation within the upper mantle.  相似文献   

Semi‐empirical model for site effects on acceleration time histories at soft‐soil sites. Part 2: calibration     

Armando Brcena  Luis Esteva 《地震工程与结构动力学》2004,33(13):1287-1310

A previously developed simplified model of ground motion amplification is applied to the simulation of acceleration time histories at several soft‐soil sites in the Valley of Mexico, on the basis of the corresponding records on firm ground. The main objective is to assess the ability of the model to reproduce characteristics such as effective duration, frequency content and instantaneous intensity. The model is based on the identification of a number of parameters that characterize the complex firm‐ground to soft‐soil transfer function, and on the adjustment of these parameters in order to account for non‐linear soil behavior. Once the adjusted model parameters are introduced, the statistical properties of the simulated and the recorded ground motions agree reasonably well. For the sites and for the seismic events considered in this study, it is concluded that non‐linear soil behavior may have a significant effect on the amplification of ground motion. The non‐linear soil behavior significantly affects the effective ground motion duration for the components with the higher intensities, but it does not have any noticeable influence on the lengthening of the dominant ground period. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Probability-weighted hazard maps for comparing different flood risk management strategies: a case study   总被引：5，自引：1，他引：4  

Giuliano Di Baldassarre  Attilio Castellarin  Alberto Montanari  Armando Brath 《Natural Hazards》2009,50(3):479-496

The study proposes an original methodology for producing probability-weighted hazard maps based on an ensemble of numerical simulations. These maps enable one to compare different strategies for flood risk management. The methodology was applied over a 270-km² flood-prone area close to the left levee system of a 28-km reach of the river Reno (Northern Central Italy). This reach is characterised by the presence of a weir that allows controlled flooding of a large flood-prone area during major events. The proposed probability-weighted hazard maps can be used to evaluate how a structural measure such as the mentioned weir alters the spatial variability of flood hazard in the study area. This article shows an application by constructing two different flood hazard maps: a first one which neglects the presence of the weir using a regular levee system instead, and a second one that reflects the actual geometry with the weir. Flood hazard maps were generated by combining the results of several inundation scenarios, simulated by coupling 1D- and 2D-hydrodynamic models.  相似文献