Satellite-based technique for nowcasting of thunderstorms over Indian region     

Suman Goyal  Ashish Kumar  M Mohapatra  L S Rathore  S K Dube  Rahul Saxena  R K Giri 《Journal of Earth System Science》2017,126(6):79

India experiences severe thunderstorms during the months, March–June. But these systems are not predicted well, mainly due to the absence of mesoscale observational network over Indian region and the expert system. As these are short lived systems, the nowcast is attempted worldwide based on satellite and radar observations. Due to inadequate radar network, satellite plays the dominant role for nowcast of these thunderstorms. In this study, a nowcast based algorithm ForTracc developed by Vila et al. (Weather Forecast 23:233–245, 2008) has been examined over the Indian region using Infrared Channel \((10.8~\upmu \hbox {m})\) of INSAT-3D for prediction of Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCS). In this technique, the current location and intensity in terms of Cloud Top Brightness Temperature (CTBT) of the MCS are extrapolated. The purpose of this study is to validate this satellite-based nowcasting technique for Convective Cloud Clusters that helps in optimum utilization of satellite data and improve the nowcasting. The model could predict reasonably the minimum CTBT of the convective cell with average absolute error (AAE) of \({<}7\hbox { K}\) for different lead periods (30–180 min). However, it was underestimated for all the lead periods of forecasts. The AAE in the forecasts of size of the cluster varies from about \(3\times 10^{4}\hbox { km}^{2}\) for 30-min forecast to \(7\times 10^{4}\hbox { km}^{2}\) for 120-min forecast. The mean absolute error in prediction of size is above 31–38% of actual size for different lead periods of forecasts from 30 to 180 min. There is over estimation in prediction of size for 30 and 60 min forecasts (17% and 2.6% of actual size of the cluster, respectively) and underestimation in 90 to 180-min forecasts (–2.4% to –28%). The direct position error (DPE) based on the location of minimum CTBT ranges from 70 to 144 km for 30–180-min forecast respectively.  相似文献   

Fluctuation properties and polar emission mapping of pulsar B0834+06 at decametre wavelengths     

Ashish Asgekar  Avinash A. Deshpande 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2005,357(4):1105-1112

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Evaluation of the SWAT model for water balance study of a mountainous snowfed river basin of Nepal     

Birsingh Dhami  Sushil Kumar Himanshu  Ashish Pandey  Amar Kant Gautam 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2018,77(1):21

In this study, a semi-distributed hydrologic model Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) has been employed for the Karnali River basin, Nepal to test its applicability for hydrological simulation. Further, model was evaluated to carry out the water balance study of the basin and to determine the snowmelt contribution in the river flow. Snowmelt Runoff Model (SRM) was also used to compare the snowmelt runoff simulated from the SWAT model. The statistical results show that performance of the SWAT model in the Karnali River basin is quite good (p-factor = 0.88 and 0.88, for daily calibration and validation, respectively; r-factor = 0.76 and 0.71, for daily calibration and validation, respectively). Baseflow alpha factor (ALPHA_BF) was found most sensitive parameter for the flow simulation. The study revealed that the average annual runoff volume available at the basin outlet is about 47.16 billion cubic metre out of which about 12% of runoff volume is contributed by the snowmelt runoff. About 25% of annual precipitation seems to be lost as evapotranspiration. The results revealed that both the models, SWAT and SRM, can be efficiently applied in the mountainous river basins of Nepal for planning and management of water resources.  相似文献   

波令-阿勒罗德间冰期时期西南印度夏季季风降雨的变化性     

Ashish Sinha  徐明芝 《海洋地质前沿》2006,22(5):15-17

北方春季时期印度次大陆和西藏高原的差异性增热吸引了印度洋的潮湿空气穿越印度大陆,产生了世界上最显著的西南印度夏季季风(ISM)体系(Webster,1987)。世界上大约25%的人口受到这种季节降雨的影响。20世纪60年代末期,印度约150万人死于连续3年的季风失常(重大灾害数据库,2005)  相似文献