Image transforms for determining fit-for-purpose complexity of geostatistical models in flow modeling   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Orhun Aydin  Jef Caers 《Computational Geosciences》2013,17(2):417-429

Increased diversity of water or energy resources has led to an increased complexity in models aimed at representing accurately dynamic behavior and geological variability in such systems. In terms of variability of properties at least, simple layered models have mostly been replaced with more complex geostatistical models. The newest trend is to replace covariance-based models with geologically more realistic models such as Boolean, multiple-point, surface-, or process-based models. In this paper, we address the following question: given some design purpose or a set of flow-based decision variables, does adding more complexity increase predictability and ultimately improve decisions based on such models? In this paper, we do not attempt to make any generalizing statements or answer this question with yes/no, but provide some initial ideas on practical workflows to discover the needed complexity. We do treat complexity only in the context of decision making under uncertainty. Two workflows are proposed: complexifying versus simplifying. In these workflows, we attempt to extract, using image transforms, relevant features of the variability between geostatistical realizations that are related to uncertainty in flow dynamics. A simple distance-based calibration between the static variability and dynamic variability provides a means to decide on what the relevant complexity of geostatistical models should be for the given purpose.  相似文献   

Spatial Statistical Properties of Pressure Solution Seams in Clastic Rocks in Southwest Ireland     

Filippo Nenna  Xiaoxian Zhou  Atilla Aydin 《Mathematical Geosciences》2012,44(5):595-617

Length, height, thickness and spacing measurements of pressure solution seams at outcrop, hand sample and thin section scale were taken from clastic rocks located in the southwest of Ireland. The lengths and spacings of pressure solution seams have similarly shaped (approximately log-hyperbolic) distributions at the observed scales suggesting that length and spacing distributions are scale-independent over the scales studied with a fractal dimension in the range of 1.4 to 1.6. Pressure solution seam lengths and thicknesses are related by a power-law and their spacings have a linear relationship to bed thickness. Although pressure solution seams are often considered as anticracks (forming under the same remote stresses as joints, but with opposite sign) we describe how the mechanism of pressure solution differs substantially from that of jointing. We use an existing mechanical model to show that stresses around pressure solution seam tips are much lower than those for joints under equal but opposite loading conditions. Pressure solution seams also have a decreasing tendency to lengthen as they grow, which is reflected in their length distributions. We propose that pressure solution seams, unlike joints, do not reach fracture saturation spacing because of transverse coalescence.  相似文献   

Seismic hazard studies for Gaziantep city in South Anatolia of Turkey     

Hamza Güllü  Atilla M. Ansal  Aydin Özbay 《Natural Hazards》2008,44(1):19-50

Seismic hazard studies were conducted for Gaziantep city in the South Anatolia of Turkey. For this purpose, a new attenuation relationship was developed using the data of Zaré and Bard and accelerations were predicted employing this new equation. Deterministic approach, total probability theorem and GIS methodology were all together utilized for the seismic assessments. Seismic hazard maps with 0.25° grid intervals considering the site conditions were produced by the GIS technique. The results indicated that the acceleration values by the GIS hazard modelings were matched with the ones from the deterministic approach, however, they were underestimated comparing with the total probability theorem. In addition, the GIS based seismic hazard maps showed that the current seismic map of Turkey fairly yields conservative acceleration values for the Gaziantep region. Therefore, the constructed GIS hazard models are offered as a base map for a further modification of the current seismic hazard map.  相似文献   

Reservoir operation using system dynamics under climate change impacts: a case study of Yamchi reservoir,Iran     

Mahdi Zarghami  Mohammad Reza Fotookian  Nasim Safari  Aydin Aslanzadeh 《Arabian Journal of Geosciences》2016,9(16):678

This paper proposes a decision support system for Yamchi reservoir operation in semi-arid region of Iran. The paper consists of the following steps: Firstly, the potential impacts of climate change on the streamflow are predicted. The study then presents the projections of future changes in temperature and precipitation under A2 scenario using the LARS-WG downscaling model and under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 using the statistical downscaling model (SDSM) in the northwestern of Iran. To do so, a general circulation model of HadCM3 is downscaled by using the LARS-WG model. As a result, the average temperature, for the horizon 2030 (2011–2030), will increase by 0.77 °C and precipitation will decrease by 11 mm. Secondly, the downscaled variables are used as input to the artificial neural network to investigate the possible impact of climate change on the runoffs. Thirdly, the system dynamics model is employed to model different scenarios for reservoir operation using the Vensim software. System dynamics is an effective approach for understanding the behavior of complex systems. Simulation results demonstrate that the water shortage in different sectors (including agriculture, domestic, industry, and environmental users) will be enormously increased in the case of business-as-usual strategy. In this research, by providing innovative management strategies, including deficit irrigation, the vulnerability of reservoir operation is reduced. The methodology is evaluated by using different modeling tests which then motivates using the methodology for other arid/semi-arid regions.  相似文献   

C2/c pyroxene phenocrysts from three potassic series in the Neogene alkaline volcanics, NE Turkey: their crystal chemistry with petrogenetic significance as an indicator of P–T conditions     

Faruk Aydin  Richard M. Thompson  Orhan Karsli  Hinako Uchida  Jason B. Burt  Robert T. Downs 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》2009,158(1):131-147

Chemical and structural data are reported for C2/c pyroxene phenocrysts collected from three potassic series (Group A: basanite-tephrite, Group B: tephrite-phonolitic tephrite, Group C: alkaline basalt-trachybasalt) of the Neogene alkaline volcanics (NAVs) in northeastern Turkey, in order to investigate the evolution of the magmatic plumbing system and the location of magma chamber(s) with crystallization conditions. The rock series hosting the clinopyroxene phenocrysts show generally porphyritic texture and have a variable phenocryst-rich nature (20–58%), with phenocryst assemblages characterized by cpx ± ol ± plag ± foid ± amp ± bio. The clinopyroxene phenocrysts can be chemically classified as Ti- and Fe³⁺-rich Al-diopsides for Groups A and B (AB-cpxs) and Ti- and Fe³⁺-poor Al-diopsides for Group C (C-cpxs). They have poorly variable composition, clustering in the diopside field. Structurally, the diopside groups have nearly similar a (ranging from 9.73 to 9.75 ?), V _cell (437.2–440.9 ?³), and 〈beta〉 angle values (106.01°–106.23°), but some differences in polyhedral parameters and geometries of the AB-cpxs and C-cpxs have been observed. For example, the AB-cpxs are characterized by larger c (5.27–5.30 vs. 5.25–5.28 ?), V _T (2.27–2.30 vs. 2.23–2.28 ?³), and V _M2 (25.53–25.72 vs. 25.41–25.59 ?³) values and smaller b (8.87–8.88 vs. 8.88–8.91 ?) and V _M1 (11.49–11.63 vs. 11.64–11.83 ?³) values with respect to the C-cpxs. In addition, the AB-cpxs show higher values of V _M2/V _M1 (2.20–2.23) due to large V _M2 and small V _M1 compared to the V _M2/V _M1 ratios of the C-cpxs (<2.19). Such differences in the crystal structure of the AB-cpxs and C-cpxs from the NAVs are partly related to different crystallization pressures, but mostly related to variation in melt composition and, possibly, the influence of other crystallizing mineral phases. In particular, R(M2-O1) and R(M1-O2) (i.e. bond lengths) differences in the clinopyroxenes of different groups support the presence of evolved host rocks with different alkaline character (i.e. silica-undersaturated Groups A–B and silica-saturated Group C). Based on the cpx-geothermobarometry, the crystallization pressures for the C-cpxs are lower than 4.5 kbars, but the AB-cpxs have relatively high-pressure values (5.6–10.6 kbars), suggesting that the AB-cpxs crystallized in higher pressure environments. The relatively higher crystallization temperatures of the AB-cpxs also indicate higher cooling rates. The P–T estimates suggest that the source regions of the clinopyroxene phenocrysts from the NAVs were crustal magma chambers in a closed plumbing system at a moderate- to low-pressure regime.  相似文献   

Water Quality and Phosphorus Budget of Mogan Lake,Turkey     

S. Pulatsü  F. Aydin 《洁净——土壤、空气、水》1997,25(3):128-134

Mogan Lake is the largest recreational area near Ankara, which is the capital city of Turkey. Increased macrophyte growth in the water body and the present levels of urban development within the catchment are reflected in declining water quality and aesthetic deterioation. A study of the water quality of the lake was undertaken to quantify the variation of phosphorus, nitrogen, and chlorophyll-a concentrations during ice-free seasons from 1992 to 1994. Its total phosphorus and chlorophyll-a concentrations indicate a meso-eutrophic status. The total phosphorus budget of Mogan Lake was measured for a period of 22 months. The estimation of nutrient loading using Dillon-Rigler nutrient budget shows that an artificial load caused too high phosphorus inputs. The management implications of phosphorus loading and budget are discussed.  相似文献   

Fracture void structure: implications for flow, transport and deformation   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

A. Aydin 《Environmental Geology》2001,40(6):672-677

 This review focuses on studies of flow, transport and deformation processes at a scale of a single discontinuity. The paper provides an evaluation of: (1) various methods suggested for geometrical characterization of void structure; and (2) theoretical and practical problems arising from significant differences between the actual geometry of fracture void structure and its parallel plate representation. The use of an equivalent aperture concept is shown to be seriously misleading in: (a) evaluation of flow regime, and hence selection of appropriate flow laws; (b) correlating tracer and hydraulic tests, and assessment of solute transport properties; and (c) relating hydraulic and mechanical apertures, and predicting influence of stress perturbation and deformability. Received: 2 August 1999 · Accepted: 30 November 1999  相似文献   

A framework for ecosystem impacts assessment using an indicator approach   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：2  

Livingston  P.A.; Aydin  K.; Boldt  J.; Ianelli  J.; Jurado-Molina  J. 《ICES Journal of Marine Science》2005,62(3):592-597

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Geochemical and Sr–Nd–Pb isotopic compositions of the Eocene Dölek and Sariçiçek Plutons, Eastern Turkey: Implications for magma interaction in the genesis of high-K calc-alkaline granitoids in a post-collision extensional setting     

Orhan Karsli  Bin Chen  Faruk Aydin  Cüneyt en 《Lithos》2007,98(1-4):67-96

The major and trace elements and Sr–Nd–Pb isotopes of the host rocks and the mafic microgranular enclaves (MME) gathered from the Dölek and Sariçiçek plutons, Eastern Turkey, were studied to understand the underlying petrogenesis and geodynamic setting. The plutons were emplaced at  43 Ma at shallow depths ( 5 to 9 km) as estimated from Al-in hornblende geobarometry. The host rocks consist of a variety of rock types ranging from diorite to granite (SiO₂ = 56.98–72.67 wt.%; Mg# = 36.8–50.0) populated by MMEs of gabbroic diorite to monzodiorite in composition (SiO₂ = 53.21–60.94 wt.%; Mg# = 44.4–53.5). All the rocks show a high-K calc-alkaline differentiation trend. Chondrite-normalized REE patterns are moderately fractionated and relatively flat [(La/Yb)_N = 5.11 to 8.51]. They display small negative Eu anomalies (Eu/Eu = 0.62 to 0.88), with enrichment of LILE and depletion of HFSE. Initial Nd–Sr isotopic compositions for the host rocks are ε_Nd(43 Ma) = − 0.6 to 0.8 and mostly I_Sr = 0.70482–0.70548. The Nd model ages (T_DM) vary from 0.84 to 0.99 Ga. The Pb isotopic ratios are (²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁴Pb) = 18.60–18.65, (²⁰⁷Pb/²⁰⁴Pb) = 15.61–15.66 and (²⁰⁸Pb/²⁰⁴Pb) = 38.69–38.85. Compared with the host rocks, the MMEs are relatively homogeneous in isotopic composition, with I_Sr ranging from 0.70485 to 0.70517, ε_Nd(43 Ma) − 0.1 to 0.8 and with Pb isotopic ratios of (²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁴Pb) = 18.58–18.64, (²⁰⁷Pb/²⁰⁴Pb) = 15.60–15.66 and (²⁰⁸Pb/²⁰⁴Pb) = 38.64–38.77. The MMEs have T_DM ranging from 0.86 to 1.36 Ga. The geochemical and isotopic similarities between the MMEs and their host rocks indicate that the enclaves are of mixed origin and are most probably formed by the interaction between the lower crust- and mantle-derived magmas. All the geochemical data, in conjunction with the geodynamic evidence, suggest that a basic magma derived from an enriched subcontinental lithospheric mantle, probably triggered by the upwelling of the asthenophere, and interacted with a crustal melt that originated from the dehydration melting of the mafic lower crust at deep crustal levels. Modeling based on the Sr–Nd isotope data indicates that  77–83% of the subcontinental lithospheric mantle involved in the genesis. Consequently, the interaction process played an important role in the genesis of the hybrid granitoid bodies, which subsequently underwent a fractional crystallization process along with minor amounts of crustal assimilation, en route to the upper crustal levels generating a wide variety of rock types ranging from diorite to granite in an extensional regime.  相似文献   

Reply to the comments by G. Bertotti and V. Picotti on: “Uplift and contractional deformation along a segmented strike-slip fault system: the Gargano Promontory, southern Italy”     

Charles M. Brankman  Atilla Aydin 《Journal of Structural Geology》2004,26(12):2327-2329

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