Estimation of drought-related yield loss using the dynamic statistical model of crop productivity forecasting     

A. D. Kleshchenko  V. M. Lebedeva  T. A. Goncharova  T. A. Naidina  N. M. Shklyaeva 《Russian Meteorology and Hydrology》2016,41(4):299-306

The methodological approach is proposed to the estimation of drought-related crop yield loss based on the dynamic statistical model of crop productivity forecasting. The obtained results agree well with the total actual crop yield loss. The approach under consideration is the first stage of creation of operational assessment of expected loss.  相似文献   

Long-term projection of main parameters of regional climate till the year 3000     

V. A. Vetrov  O. K. Borisova  A. A. Velichko 《Russian Meteorology and Hydrology》2016,41(5):312-325

The methods are considered to solve the problem of secure isolation of radioactive waste containing long-lived products of nuclear fuel processing with a half-life of tens of thousands years (plutonium etc.). The methodology of long-term projection of average annual surface air temperature and total precipitation is proposed. Taking into account the possible scenarios of the development of the global socioeconomic system, variations due to the anthropogenic impact in average annual temperature at the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes for the period till 2300 are estimated. Based on paleoclimatic data, projections of natural trends in global average annual temperature and total precipitation till the year 3000 are developed. Taking into account the anthropogenic component, the projective ranges of these climatic parameters in the Vyatka River basin in 2100-3000 are evaluated.  相似文献   

Verification of the multi-chamber model of radioactivity migration in reservoirs     

A. L. Krylov  A. V. Nosov  V. P. Kiselev 《Russian Meteorology and Hydrology》2016,41(5):344-350

A multi-chamber model of radioactivity migration in reservoirs was developed. It describes transport of radioactive substances in water and in bed sediments taking into account sorbtion of radionuclides on suspended particles. The model provides higher resolution than simplified chamber models do. At the same time, unlike complex two- or three-dimensional dynamic models, it does not require hard-to-obtain data such as detailed data on bathymetry, currents and winds. The model was included into the Sybilla program code that was developed in the framework of the Rosatom project called PRORYV. The model was verified against the observed data on the contamination of the Kiev Reservoir with ¹³⁷Cs in 1986.  相似文献   

Applying the energy- and water balance model for incorporation of the cryospheric component into a climate model. Part II. Modeled mass balance on the green land ice sheet surface     

O. O. Rybak  E. M. Volodin  A. P. Nevecherya  P. A. Morozova 《Russian Meteorology and Hydrology》2016,41(6):379-387

The Greenland ice sheet is a very important potential source of fresh water inflow to the World Ocean under warming climate conditions. Apparently, it was the same during the Last Interglacial 130-115 thousand years ago. In order to quantify input of the Greenland ice sheet to the rise of the global mean sea level in the past or in the future, we include a surface mass balance model block into the Earth System Model. The computational algorithm is based on the calculation of energy balance on the ice sheet surface. The key tuning parameter of the model is the daily amplitude of air surface temperature. It defines the area and the rate of snow or ice melting. The range of possible values of this parameter is determined during a series of numerical experiments. High sensitivity of meltwater runoff volume to surface air temperature amplitude is revealed.  相似文献   

Variability of atmospheric circulation under the climate change in West Siberia in the late 20th–early 21st centuries     

E. V. Kharyutkina  S. V. Loginov  Yu. V. Martynova 《Russian Meteorology and Hydrology》2016,41(6):435-438

The estimates of spatiotemporal variability of climatic parameters in West Siberia are obtained over the period of 1976-2014. It is revealed that this variability is affected by the parameters of atmospheric circulation such as wind speed components, relative vorticity, and large-scale circulation indices. It is found that in winter the warming changed into the cooling that is particularly associated with the change in atmospheric circulation patterns described by the SCAND index.  相似文献   

Extreme wind speeds in the European sector of the Arctic     

A. V. Kislov  T. A. Matveeva 《Russian Meteorology and Hydrology》2016,41(7):447-454

Variations in extreme wind speed over the European part of the Arctic are studied from the data of meteorological observations, reanalysis, and modeling based on the INM CM4 climate model. It is demonstrated that the extremes determined from the observational data are a mixture of two datasets well simulated by the Weibull distribution. According to the special metaphoric terminology, they are called “black swans” and “dragons.” The analysis of extreme wind speeds based on the reanalysis and INM CM4 data demonstrated that they consist of “black swans” only. This important fact indicates that the models (at least those with medium horizontal resolution) are not able to simulate some essential circulation mechanisms causing the formation of significant anomalies of wind speed. Hence, the problem of direct identification of wind speed extremes based on the atmospheric modeling remains open.  相似文献   

Ozone content over the Russian Federation in the second quarter of 2016     

A. M. Zvyagintsev  N. S. Ivanova  I. N. Kuznetsova  V. A. Lapchenko  N. V. Tereb 《Russian Meteorology and Hydrology》2016,41(9):662-664

The review is compiled on the basis of the operation of the total ozone (TO) monitoring system in the CIS and Baltic countries that functions in the operational regime at the Central Aerological Observatory. The monitoring system uses the data from the national network equipped with M-124 filter ozonometers under methodological supervision of the Main Geophysical Observatory. The quality of the functioning of the entire system is under the operational control based on the observations obtained from the OMI satellite equipment (NASA, the United States). The basic TO observation data are generalized for each month of the second quarter of 2016 and for the quarter as a whole. The data of routine observations of surface ozone content carried out in the Moscow region and Crimea are also presented.  相似文献   

Studying the effects of vortices flowing around seamounts on ice properties from satellite microwave data     

M. V. Bukharov 《Russian Meteorology and Hydrology》2016,41(10):698-705

The changes are considered in the computation and map representation of the scattering index (SI) of thick first-year ice identified from the MTVZA-GYa radiometer data. For the first time improved ice SI maps enabled detecting the zones of the low values of sea ice SI which were steadily formed in the same areas over the Lomonosov and Gakkel ridges. It is demonstrated that the intense local ice drift formed under the influence of the vortices flowing around seamounts, may be a reason for the formation of such zones. The cases are considered when the zones of the low values of ice SI were of synoptic scale (up to 1200 km) and could have been the result of the independent influence of the vortices flowing around seamounts and strong surface wind. The utility of new SI maps is noted for monitoring the areas where the vortices flowing around seamounts may considerably modify propeties of the sea ice cover.  相似文献   

Frequency of large-scale vortices in the velocity field of ice drift in the Arctic basin as a parameter of its intensity     

S. M. Losev  L. N. Dyment 《Russian Meteorology and Hydrology》2016,41(10):714-721

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Circulation anomalies in the atmospheric centers of action during the Eastern Pacific and Central Pacific El Niño     

I. V. Zheleznova  D. Yu. Gushchina 《Russian Meteorology and Hydrology》2016,41(11-12):760-769

Based on the statistical analysis the teleconnections between circulation anomalies in the atmospheric centers of action and sea surface temperature anomalies are revealed for two types of El Niño. It is demonstrated that for the Eastern Pacific El Niño stronger teleconnections are registered in the Northern Hemisphere whereas the response to the Central Pacific El Niño is much stronger in the Southern Hemisphere. The Central Pacific El Niño is characterized by the more rapid signal propagation from the tropical zone to distant regions. In some cases the pattern of interaction with the atmospheric circulation considerably differs for two types of El Niño that defines differences in the fields of weather anomalies.  相似文献