Synoptic and mesoscale study of a severe convective outbreak with the nonhydrostatic Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) model   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

A. Erfani  A. Méthot  R. Goodson  S. Bélair  K.-S. Yeh  J. Côté  R. Moffet 《Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics》2003,82(1-4):31-53

Summary ?A nonhydrostatic 4-km version of the Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) model, with detailed microphysics included, was used to forecast the initiation, development, and structure of a tornado-producing supercell storm that occurred near Pine Lake (Alberta, Canada) on 15 July 2000. Examination of observations and comparison with conceptual models indicate that this storm is a good example of supercell storms that regularly produce summertime severe weather over Alberta. It was found that the high-resolution model was able to reproduce the early initiation of convective activity along the Rocky Mountains foothills, as well as the rapid northeastward propagation towards the Pine Lake area and the subsequent intensification into a supercell storm. The general structures of the forecasted convective system correspond well with conceptual representations of such events. Overall, this high-resolution forecast of the Pine Lake supercell storm was a significant improvement over the current operational version of the GEM model (24 km), which was not able to intensify the foothills’ convection into a supercell storm. Finally, it was found that the nonhydrostatic version of the model produces better trajectory and propagation speed of the convective system, as compared with the hydrostatic one. Received March 20, 2001; revised August 24, 2001  相似文献   

Intercomparison of Stratospheric Chemistry Models under Polar Vortex Conditions     

M. Krämer  Ri. Müller  H. Bovensmann  J. Burrows  J. Brinkmann  E. P. Röth  J.-U. Grooß  Ro. Müller  Th. Woyke  R. Ruhnke  G. Günther  J. Hendricks  E. Lippert  K. S. Carslaw  Th. Peter  A. Zieger  Ch. Brühl  B. Steil  R. Lehmann  D. S. McKenna 《Journal of Atmospheric Chemistry》2003,45(1):51-77

Several stratospheric chemistry modules from box, 2-D or 3-D models, have been intercompared. The intercomparison was focused on the ozone loss and associated reactive species under the conditions found in the cold, wintertime Arctic and Antarctic vortices. Comparisons of both gas phase and heterogeneous chemistry modules show excellent agreement between the models under constrained conditions for photolysis and the microphysics of polar stratospheric clouds. While the mean integral ozone loss ranges from 4–80% for different 30–50 days long air parcel trajectories, the mean scatter of model results around these values is only about ±1.5%. In a case study, where the models employed their standard photolysis and microphysical schemes, the variation around the mean percentage ozone loss increases to about ±7%. This increased scatter of model results is mainly due to the different treatment of the PSC microphysics and heterogeneous chemistry in the models, whereby the most unrealistic assumptions about PSC processes consequently lead to the least representative ozone chemistry. Furthermore, for this case study the model results for the ozone mixing ratios at different altitudes were compared with a measured ozone profile to investigate the extent to which models reproduce the stratospheric ozone losses. It was found that mainly in the height range of strong ozone depletion all models underestimate the ozone loss by about a factor of two. This finding corroborates earlier studies and implies a general deficiency in our understanding of the stratospheric ozone loss chemistry rather than a specific problem related to a particular model simulation.  相似文献   

Estimation of asymmetry and kurtosis coefficients in the process of geodetic network adjustment by the least-squares method     

B. Kasietczuk 《Journal of Geodesy》1997,71(3):131-136

 This paper presents an extension of the geodetic network adjustment model. The proposed extension makes possible the estimation of the 3-rd and 4-th central moments for the vector of measurement errors in the process of network adjustment by the least-squares method with application of orthogonal matrices. It allows to estimate the asymmetry and kurtosis of the measurement errors distribution. Received 13 April 1993; Accepted 8 July 1996  相似文献   

Multiplotting With Images from the Kodak DCS420 Digital Camera     

W. S. Warner  B. R. Slaattelid 《The Photogrammetric Record》1997,15(89):665-672

This paper explores the potential of a digital camera to produce multiple images suitable for plotting. The objective was to build a three dimensional database by linking triangulated images from a Kodak DCS420 digital camera with a computer aided measurement system. The system then supplied X, Y, Z data from x, y image co-ordinates captured off two or more images. Relative accuracy in object space was around 1;50 000.  相似文献   

末次盛冰期以来全球湿润状况的地质证据──全球古湖泊数据库及其湖水位变化的大尺度时空分析     

秦伯强  S.P.Harrison  于革  P.E.Tarasov  B.Damnati 《湖泊科学》1997,(3)

介绍了正在建设中的全球湖泊数据库的情况，以及该数据库的水位资料所反映的晚更新世末期以来全球湿润状况的变化。通过大尺度湖水位变化的时空分析，结果显示当今湖泊水位状态较历史时期而言，位于低纬干旱或半干旱地区的湖泊水位较低，而中纬及高纬湿润地区的湖泊水位较高。自末次冰盛期以来，北美大陆中南部地区湖泊水位自高至低，反映出该地区气候条件由湿变干，至早、中全新世达最干旱。而在非洲及南亚季风地区，冷期偏干，暖期偏湿。特别是在早、中全新世的温暖时期，为历史上最湿润时期。北半球中纬度地带的气候干湿变化与北半球冰盖的存在及其消融导致的西风带的南北摆动有关；而北半球季风区在早、中全新世出现的高潮面与北半球夏季辐射的增加有密切联系。  相似文献   

Non-linear climate feedback analysis in an atmospheric general circulation model     

R. A. Colman  S. B. Power  B. J. McAvaney 《Climate Dynamics》1997,13(10):717-731

 A method is described for evaluating the ‘partial derivatives’ of globally averaged top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiation changes with respect to basic climate model physical parameters. This method is used to analyse feedbacks in the Australian Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre general circulation model. The parameters considered are surface temperature, water vapour, lapse rate and cloud cover. The climate forcing which produces the changes is a globally uniform sea surface temperature (SST) perturbation. The first and second order differentials of model parameters with respect to the forcing (i.e. SST changes) are estimated from quadratic least square fitting. Except for total cloud cover, variables are found to be strong functions of global SST. Strongly non-linear variations of lapse rate and high cloud amount and height appear to relate to the non-linear response in penetrative convection. Globally averaged TOA radiation differentials with respect to model parameters are also evaluated. With the exception of total cloud contributions, a high correlation is generally found to exist, on the global mean level, between TOA radiation and the respective parameter perturbations. The largest non-linear terms contributing to radiative changes are those due to lapse rate and high cloud. The contributions of linear and non-linear terms to the overall radiative response from a 4 K SST perturbation are assessed. Significant non-linear responses are found to be associated with lapse rate, water vapour and cloud changes. Although the exact magnitude of these responses is likely to be a function of the particular model as well as the imposed SST perturbation pattern, the present experiments flag these as processes which cannot properly be understood from linear theory in the evaluation of climate change sensitivity. Received: 16 January 1997/Accepted: 9 May 1997  相似文献   

On the Spatial Distribution and Seasonal Variation of Lower-Troposphere Ozone over Europe     

H. E. Scheel  H. Areskoug  H. Geiss  B. Gomiscek  K. Granby  L. Haszpra  L. Klasinc  D. Kley  T. Laurila  A. Lindskog  M. Roemer  R. Schmitt  P. Simmonds  S. Solberg  G. Toupance 《Journal of Atmospheric Chemistry》1997,28(1-3):11-28

Surface ozone data from 25 Europeanlow-altitude sites and mountain sites located between79°N and 28°N were studied. The analysiscovered the time period March 1989–February 1993.Average summer and winter O₃ concentrations inthe boundary layer over the continent gave rise togradients that were strongest in the north-west tosouth-east direction and west-east direction, respectively. WintertimeO₃ ranged from 19 to 27 ppbover the continent, compared to about 32 ppb at thewestern border, while for summer the continentalO₃ values ranged between 39 and 56 ppb and theoceanic mixing ratios were around 37 ppb. In the lowerfree troposphere average wintertime O₃ mixingratios were around 38 ppb, with only an 8 ppbdifference between 28°N and 79°N. For summerthe average O₃ levels decreased from about 55 ppbover Central Europe to 32 ppb at 79°N. Inaddition, O₃ and O_x(= O₃ + NO₂)in polluted and clean air were compared. Theamplitudes of the seasonal ozone variations increasedin the north-west to south-east direction, while thetime of the annual maximum was shifted from spring (atthe northerly sites) to late summer (at sites inAustria and Hungary), which reflected the contributionof photochemical ozone production in the lower partsof the troposphere.  相似文献   

Effects of Land Use on the Climate of the United States   总被引：14，自引：0，他引：14  

Gordon B. Bonan 《Climatic change》1997,37(3):449-486

Land use practices have replaced much of the natural needleleaf evergreen, broadleaf deciduous, and mixed forests of the Eastern United States with crops. To a lesser extent, the natural grasslands in the Central United States have also been replaced with crops. Simulations with a land surface process model coupled to an atmospheric general circulation model show that the climate of the United States with modern vegetation is significantly different from that with natural vegetation. Three important climate signals caused by modern vegetation are: (1) 1 °C cooling over the Eastern United States and 1 °C warming over the Western United States in spring; (2) summer cooling of up to 2 °C over a wide region of the Central United States; and (3) moistening of the near-surface atmosphere by 0.5 to 1.5 g kg^-1over much of the United States in spring and summer. Although individual months show large, statistically significant differences in precipitation due to land-use practices, these differences average out over the course of the 3-month seasons. These changes in surface temperature and moisture extend well into the atmosphere, up to 500 mb, and affect the boundary layer and atmospheric circulation. The altered climate is due to reduced surface roughness, reduced leaf and stem area index, reduced stomatal resistance, and increased surface albedo with modern vegetation compared to natural vegetation. The climate change caused by land use practices is comparable to other well known anthropogenic climate forcings. For example, it would take 100 to 175 years at the current, observed rate of summer warming over the United States to offset the cooling from deforestation. The summer sulfate aerosol forcing completely offsets the greenhouse forcing over the Eastern United States. Similarly, the climatic effect of North American deforestation, with extensive summer cooling, further offsets the greenhouse forcing.  相似文献   

RECOGNISING THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE QUANTIFICATION OF THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON HYDROLOGICAL RESPONSE     

D. B. BOORMAN  C. E. M. SEFTON 《Climatic change》1997,35(4):415-434

A widely used method of evaluating effects of climate change on flow regime is to perturb the climate inputs to a rainfall–runoff model and examine the effect on a statistic of the modelled flows. Such studies require four elements: a method of perturbing the climate, a rainfall–runoff model, a study catchment and a flow index. In practice the direction and magnitude of the estimated effects depend on each of the four elements, leading to concern over the usefulness and generality of the results. To investigate these uncertainties two climate scenarios and eight climate sensitivity tests have been applied to three UK catchments using two conceptual rainfall–runoff models in order to quantify effects of climate change on three flow indices representing mean runoff, flood magnitudes and low flows. The sensitivity tests were found to be useful to assess the suitability of the models to simulate flows outside the conditions experienced in their calibration. Both models gave internally consistent results but, on close examination, one model was found inappropriate for this application. Results show that the effect of climate change on flow varies between catchments and that different flow response indices can change in opposite directions, e.g. floods increased in magnitude while low flows reduced. Contrasting results were obtained from the two climate scenarios.  相似文献   

Effects of meteorology and land use on ambient measurements of primary pollutants in Córdoba city, Argentina     

L. E. Olcese  B. M. Toselli 《Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics》1997,62(3-4):241-248

Summary The atmospheric concentrations of several primary species: NO, NO₂, NO_x, CO, SO₂, reactive hydrocarbons (ROG) and other 15 atmospheric and meteorological variables have been measured at several locations in Córdoba city, Argentina since June 1995. The measurements are carried out using two mobile stations to cover several important areas of Córdoba. The objective of this work is to estimate the effects of meteorology and urban structure on the air quality levels for this city using simple statistics. We analyze the correlation between primary pollutants (CO and NO_x) and site locations of the air quality monitoring stations (AQMS) during the whole 1995 field campaign. In this study we take the measured data for primary pollutants and group them by location and time of the year. The results of this work may be useful to forecast air pollution episodes. Also we can get indirect information about emissions and maybe identify source characteristics. Once the influences of topography, meteorology, and land use will be fully characterized, the existing monitoring data will be used to do air quality modeling analysis and to select monitoring locations. The use of mobile stations instead of stationary ones at this stage is justified because of limited funding. Therefore, it is a valid option to decide in the future the additional instrumentation required to characterize completely the atmospheric urban area.With 5 Figures  相似文献