Semi-Periodic Sequences and Extraneous Events in Earthquake Forecasting. II: Application,Forecasts for Japan and Venezuela     

Claudia Beatriz Quinteros Cartaya  Fidencio Alejandro Nava Pichardo  Ewa Glowacka  José Duglas Frez Cárdenas 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2014,171(7):1367-1383

In order to analyze observed seismicity in central Japan and Venezuela, we applied a new method to identify semi-periodic sequences in the occurrence times of large earthquakes, which allows for the presence of multiple periodic sequences and/or events not belonging to any sequence in the time series. We also explored a scheme for diminishing the effects of a sharp cutoff magnitude threshold in selecting the events to analyze. A main four-event sequence with probability P _c  = 0.991 of not having occurred by chance was identified for earthquakes with M ≥ 8.0 in central Japan. Venezuela is divided, from West to East, into four regions; for each of these, the magnitude ranges and identified sequences are as follows. Region 1: M ≥ 6.0, a six-event sequence with P _c  = 0.923, and a four-event sequence with P _c  = 0.706. Region 2: M ≥ 5.6, a five-event sequence with P _c  = 0.942. Region 3: M ≥ 5.6, a four-event sequence with P _c  = 0.882. Region 4: M ≥ 6.0, a five-event sequence with P _c  = 0.891. Forecasts are made and evaluated for all identified sequences having four or more events and probabilities ≥0.5. The last event of all these sequences was satisfactorily aftcast by previous events. Whether the identified sequences do, in fact, correspond to physical processes resulting in semi-periodic seismicity is, of course, an open question; but the forecasts, properly used, may be useful as a factor in seismic hazard estimation.  相似文献   

Semi-Periodic Sequences and Extraneous Events in Earthquake Forecasting: I. Theory and Method,Parkfield Application     

Fidencio Alejandro Nava Pichardo  Claudia Beatriz Quinteros Cartaya  Ewa Glowacka  José Duglas Frez Cárdenas 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2014,171(7):1355-1366

We present a new method to identify semi-periodic sequences in the occurrence times of large earthquakes, which allows for the presence of multiple semi-periodic sequences and/or events not belonging to any identifiable sequence in the time series. The method, based on the analytic Fourier transform, yields estimates of the departure from periodicity of an observed sequence, and of the probability that the sequence is not due to chance. These estimates are used to make and to evaluate forecasts of future events belonging to each sequence. Numerous tests with synthetic catalogs show that the method is surprisingly capable of correctly identifying sequences, unidentifiable by eye, in complicated time series. Correct identification of a given sequence depends on the number of events it contains, on the sequence’s departure from periodicity, and, in some cases, on the choice of starting and ending times of the analyzed time window; as well as on the total number of events in the time series. Some particular data combinations may result in spectra where significant periods are obscured by large amplitudes artifacts of the transform, but artifacts can be usually recognized because they lack harmonics; thus, in most of these cases, true semi-periodic sequences may not be identified, but no false identifications will be made. A first example of an application of the method to real seismicity data is the analysis of the Parkfield event series. The analysis correctly aftcasts the September 2004 earthquake. Further applications to real data from Japan and Venezuela are shown in a companion paper.  相似文献   

Daily and annual cycle of CO2 concentration near the surface depending on boundary layer structure at a rural site in Spain     

Isidro A. Pérez  M. Luisa Sánchez  M. Ángeles García  Beatriz de Torre 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2009,98(3-4):269-277

CO₂ in the rural atmosphere is related to respiration–photosynthesis processes, although the evolution of the low atmosphere is also a determinant factor. CO₂ concentrations were measured at surface and meteorological variables obtained from a radio acoustic sounding system sodar at a flat rural site during a 3-year campaign. Yearly and daily cycles of CO₂ were described. Maxima were observed in spring and autumn during the night. Wind speed and thermal structure of the lower atmosphere were analysed. Low level jets were observed during the night, their core proving lower in summer. Surface inversions observed with low winds reached up to 100 m. The turbulence layer which developed during the day extended up to 300–400 m and was capped by a stable layer. Median vertical wind speed reached 1 m s^?1 in super-adiabatic conditions in summer. Determination of decoupled low level jets proved difficult with the device used and corresponding concentrations were slightly higher than medians calculated with all the observations. The bulk Richardson number was calculated in the lower atmosphere and four intervals were considered: drainage, transitional, shear flows and unstable conditions. Median CO₂ concentrations were split according to these intervals. Higher values corresponded to drainage flow, which was associated to more stable conditions being less frequent and lower values to shear flow and unstable conditions, revealing a satisfactory link between the bulk Richardson number as a turbulence indicator in the low atmosphere and CO₂ surface concentrations.  相似文献   

Diagenetic evolution of a shallow marine Kimmeridgian carbonate ramp (Jabaloyas,NE Spain): implications for hydrocarbon reservoir quality     

Galo San Miguel  Marcos Aurell  Beatriz Bádenas 《Arabian Journal of Geosciences》2017,10(16):376

The upper Kimmeridgian outcrops in Jabaloyas (NE Spain) studied here have significant similarity in terms of carbonate ramp morphology and its facies architecture with Member D of the Upper Jurassic Arab Formation reservoirs in the Middle East. Geological models from analogue outcrops enhance or challenge the understanding of multi-scale sedimentological and diagenetic heterogeneities in the subsurface hydrocarbon reservoir models by providing morphometric parameters. For this purpose, conventional diagenetic studies (petrographic microscopy analysis and cathodoluminescence) have been performed to assess the impact of diagenetic modifications through burial. More than 50 thin sections have been used to define a full paragenetic sequence. Additional mineralogical mapping (Qemscan®) on a selection of thin sections serves as a calibration tool for semiquantitative analytic studies of every mineral phases and the proposed porosity evolution. This work unravels the whole paragenetic diagenetic processes and focused on those that occurred right after deposition to shallow burial (eogenesis). High-sequence stratigraphy allows linking these events to variations of the environmental domains that, in fact, respond most likely to sea-level fluctuations. In particular, it provides key parameters to frame the diagenetic overprint such as cementation processes plugging primary interparticle porosity and selective dissolution linked to master bounding surfaces: calcite meniscus cements in vadose zones and selective dissolution processes linked to firmgrounds. Ultimately, they offer valuable trends that would be potentially relevant to decipher and characterize reservoir parameters for the upscaling workflow of fabrics from microscopic to inter-well scale in carbonate hydrocarbon reservoirs.  相似文献   

Betekhtinite and bi-sulfosalts from the copper mine of „La Leona“ (Argentina)     

Beatriz Melba Honnorez-Guerstein 《Mineralium Deposita》1971,6(2):111-121

The copper deposit La Leona consists of ore veins in a granite batholite which intruded into Permian sediments. In these veins the following minerals are observed: pyrite, sphalerite, chalcopyrite, galena, betekhtinite, two Bisulfosalts, electrum, bornite, chalcocite, enargite, tennantite, Zn-Fahlerz, cuprite, delafossite, molybdenite, hematite and iron hydroxides, and copper carbonates with quartz and iron carbonates as gangue. The betekhtinite, (CuFe)₁₀Pb S₆, found for the first time in Argentina, the Zn-Fahlerz and the sulfosalts (Cu_3.2Bi_1.2Pb_1.2S_8.5) and (Cu_9.3Bi_1.1S_6.8) were studied in detail under the microscope, by X-rays and by microprobe. Specifically, the paragenesis of these three minerals with galena, chalcocite and bornite is discussed.

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Résumé Le gisement de cuivre de la mine «La Leona» est formé de filons de minerais recoupant un batholite granitique qui a fait intrusion dans des sédiments permiens. Les minéraus suivants ont été observés: pyrite, blende, chalcopyrite, galène, bétekhtinite, deux sulfosels de Bi, électrum, bornite, chalcosine, énargite, tennantite, «Zn-Fahlerz», cuprite, delafossite, molybdénite, hématite et hydroxydes de fer, des carbonates de cuivre, dans une gangue de quartz et de carbonates de fer. La bétekhtinite (Cu Fe)₁₀Pb S₆, trouvée pour la première fois en Argentine, le «Zn-Fahlerz» et les sulfosels (Cu_3.2Bi_1.2Pb_1.2S_8.5) et (Cu_9.3Bi_1.1S_6.8) ont été spécialement étudiés à l'aide de la microscopie, de la diffraction des rayons-X et de la microsonde. La paragénèse formée par ces trois mineraux associés à la galène, la chalcosine et la bornite est discutée.

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Analysis of secular polar motion and continental drift     

E. Proverbio  V. Quesada 《Journal of Geodesy》1973,47(3):281-291

The secular latitude variations of the five ILS stations of Mizusawa, Kitab, Carloforte, Gaithersburg and Ukiah were analyzed taking into account the recent continental drift theory. Using Le Pichon's 1968 reconstruction, the rate of rotation was computed from the astronomical data, fixing the pole of rotation by Le Pichon's determination. The most reasonable solution was obtained considering Mizusawa, Kitab and Carloforte lying on the Eurasia plate, the two American stations as one on the American plate (Gaithersburg) and the other on the North—East Pacific plate (Ukiah). The resulting relative rate between the Euro-American plates is found to be 0".0028/year and between the American—Pacific plates 0".0032/ years, or about 1°,3/10⁶ years and in excellent agreement with the plate tectonic theory. Luxembourg Meeting of the “Journées Luxembourgeoises de Géodynamique”, 1972.  相似文献   

First assessment of the highly contaminated harbour of Montevideo,Uruguay     

Danulat E  Muniz P  García-Alonso J  Yannicelli B 《Marine pollution bulletin》2002,44(6):554-565

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Oxidative stress in the mussel Mytella guyanensis from polluted mangroves on Santa Catarina Island,Brazil     

Torres MA  Testa CP  Gáspari C  Masutti MB  Panitz CM  Curi-Pedrosa R  de Almeida EA  Di Mascio P  Filho DW 《Marine pollution bulletin》2002,44(9):923-932

Digestive glands of the mangrove mussel Mytella guyanensis, collected at one non-polluted site (site 1) and two polluted sites (sites 2 and 3), were analysed for different antioxidant defenses, lipid peroxidation and DNA damage. Thiobarbituric acid-reactive substance (TBARS) and 8-oxo-7,8-dihydro-2'-deoxyguanosine levels were enhanced at the polluted sites. With the exception of superoxide dismutase, the activities of catalase and glutathione peroxidase were also higher at the polluted sites. Greater increases were observed in glutathione reductase, glutathione S-transferase and etoxyresorufine-O-deethylase activities at the polluted sites. Conversely, reduced glutathione content was higher at the control site. Trace metal contents in mussels collected at polluted sites were increased compared to the control site, and there were strong positive correlations between TBARS and Cu and Pb contents. M. guyanensis is routinely exposed to an oxidative stress condition at both polluted sites, and considering xenobiotic bioaccumulation in bivalve molluscs, the mangrove mussel represents an excellent bioindicator for environmental monitoring studies.  相似文献   

Geodynamic setting and geochemical signatures of Cambrian–Ordovician rift-related igneous rocks (Ossa-Morena Zone, SW Iberia)     

T. Snchez-Garc&#x;&#x;a  F. Bellido  C. Quesada 《Tectonophysics》2003,365(1-4):233

An important rifting event, accompanied by massive igneous activity, is recorded in the Ossa-Morena Zone of the SW Iberian Massif (European Variscan Orogen). It likely culminated in the formation of a new oceanic basin (Rheic ocean?), remnants of which appear presently accreted at the southern margin of the Ossa-Morena Zone. Rifting propagated diachronously across the zone from the Early Cambrian to the Late Ordovician, but by Early Ordovician time, the existence of a significant tract of new ocean is evidenced by a breakup unconformity. Although early stages of rifting were not accompanied by mantle-derived igneous activity, a pronounced increase of the geothermal gradient is indicated by partial melting of metasedimentary protoliths in the upper and middle crust, and by coeval core-complex formation. Geochemistry of the main volume of igneous rocks, emplaced some million years later during more mature stages of rifting, suggests an origin in a variably enriched asthenospheric source, similar to that of many OIB, from which subsequent petrogenetic processes produced a wide range of compositions, from basalt to rhyolite. A tectonic model involving collision with, and subsequent overriding of, a MOR is proposed to account for the overall evolution, a present-day analogue for which lies in the overriding of the East Pacific Rise by North America and the rifting of Baja California.  相似文献   

Late Pleistocene and Holocene Paleoenvironments of Chalco Lake, Central Mexico     

Maria Socorro Lozano-García  Beatriz Ortega-Guerrero  Margarita Caballero-Miranda  Jaime Urrutia-Fucugauchi 《Quaternary Research》1993,40(3)

In order to establish paleoenvironmental conditions during the late Quaternary, four cores from the Basin of Mexico (central Mexico) were drilled in Chalco Lake, located in the southeastern part of the basin. The upper 8 m of two parallel cores were studied, using paleomagnetic, loss-on-ignition, pollen, and diatom analyses. Based on 11 ¹⁴C ages, the analyzed record spans the last 19,000 ¹⁴C yr B.P. Volcanic activity has affected microfossil abundances, both directly and indirectly, resulting in absence or reduction of pollen and diatom assemblages. Important volcanic activity took place between 19,000 and 15,000 yr B.P. when the lake was a shallow alkaline marsh and an increase of grassland pollen suggests a dry, cold climate. During this interval, abrupt environmental changes with increasing moisture occurred. From 15,000 until 12,500 yr B.P. the lake level increased and the pollen indicates wetter conditions. The highest lake level is registered from 12,500 to ca. 9000 yr B.P. The end of the Pleistocene is characterized by an increase in humidity. From 9000 until ca. 3000 yr B.P. Chalco Lake was a saline marsh and the pollen record indicates warmer conditions. After 3000 yr B.P. the lake level increased and human disturbance dominates the lacustrine record.  相似文献