Bayesian estimation of seismic hazard for two sites in Switzerland     

Erik Rüttener  Juan José Egozcue  Dieter Mayer-Rosa  Stephan Mueller 《Natural Hazards》1996,14(2-3):165-178

Seismic hazard analysis is based on data and models, which both are imprecise and uncertain. Especially the interpretation of historical information into earthquake parameters, e.g. earthquake size and location, yields ambiguous and imprecise data. Models based on probability distributions have been developed in order to quantify and represent these uncertainties. Nevertheless, the majority of the procedures applied in seismic hazard assessment do not take into account these uncertainties, nor do they show the variance of the results. Therefore, a procedure based on Bayesian statistics was developed to estimate return periods for different ground motion intensities (MSK scale).Bayesian techniques provide a mathematical model to estimate the distribution of random variables in presence of uncertainties. The developed method estimates the probability distribution of the number of occurrences in a Poisson process described by the parameter . The input data are the historical occurrences of intensities for a particular site, represented by a discrete probability distribution for each earthquake. The calculation of these historical occurrences requires a careful preparation of all input parameters, i.e. a modelling of their uncertainties. The obtained results show that the variance of the recurrence rate is smaller in regions with higher seismic activity than in less active regions. It can also be demonstrated that long return periods cannot be estimated with confidence, because the time period of observation is too short. This indicates that the long return periods obtained by seismic source methods only reflects the delineated seismic sources and the chosen earthquake size distribution law.  相似文献   

The contact binary system YY Eri     

E. Budding  C-H. Kim  O. Demircan  Z. Müyesseroğlu  K. Saijo  T. Banks 《Astrophysics and Space Science》1996,246(2):229-242

Relatively new and unanalysed photometric data-sets of the contact binary system YY Eri are presented. The light curves have been analysed using information limit optimization techniques, and the Binary Maker program of Bradstreet (1992).Comparison of the results allows insight into determinacy questions affecting the W UMa type of light curve, which relates to our general understanding of contact binaries. A limiting contact configuration cannot be ruled out on the basis of empirical data-analysis alone.Very careful analysis of the photospheric flux distribution over the surface of the Sun may help establish appropriate values of the gravity brightening parameter for cool dwarf stars. At present, however, empirical photometric information on contact binaries is non-discriminatory: i.e. alternative cosmogonies can find alternative support from available evidence. The implication is then for more and better observational data to allow better real independent parameter determination.  相似文献   

Evolution of cool skin and direct air-sea gas transfer coefficient during daytime     

Alexander V. Soloviev  Peter Schlüssel 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》1996,77(1):45-68

Absorption of solar radiation within the thermal molecular sublayer of the ocean can modify the temperature difference across the cool skin as well as the air-sea gas transfer. Our model of renewal type is based on the assumption that the thermal and diffusive molecular sublayers below the ocean surface undergo cyclic growth and destruction, the heat and gas transfer between the successive burst events are performed by molecular diffusion. The model has been upgraded to include heating due to solar radiation. The renewal time is parameterized as a function of the surface Richardson number and the Keulegan number. A Rayleigh number criterion characterizes the convective instability of the cool skin under solar heating. Under low wind speed conditions, the solar heating can damp the convective instability, strongly increasing the renewal time and correspondingly decreasing the interfacial gas exchange. In the ocean, an additional convective instability caused by salinity flux due to evaporation becomes of importance in such cases. The new parameterization is compared with the cool skin data obtained in the western equatorial Pacific during the Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere Coupled Ocean Atmosphere Response Experiment in February 1993. In combination with a model of the diurnal thermocline it describes main features of the field data both in nighttime and daytime. Under low wind speed conditions (< 5 m s^-1) diurnal variations of the sea surface temperature due to the formation of a diurnal thermocline were substantially larger than those across the cool skin. Under wind speeds > 5 m s^-1, diurnal variations of the surface temperature due to the variations of the thermal molecular sublayer become more important.  相似文献   

On AGV's navigation in 3-dimensional space     

Jürgen Kusche 《Journal of Geodesy》1996,70(4):183-187

This paper deals with position estimation and path control for Autonomous Guided Vehicles (AGV). To enable a vehicle or a mobile robot in following a continuous virtual path without human control, these techniques play an important role. The relationship between the vehicle's motion in 3-dimensional space and the shape of a curved surface is described. In particular, the introduction of a digital terrain model in dead reckoning is considered. Moreover, a possible nonlinear control is developed based on curvilinear path coordinates, and the proof for global stability is given. To achieve general validity, these topics are treated here independently of the cart's special mechanization (the configuration of steered wheels and driven wheels). Simulation studies are presented to illustrate the investigations.  相似文献   

The shoshonite porphyry Cu-Au association in the Goonumbla District,N.S.W., Australia     

Dipl.-Geol. D. Müller  D. I. Groves  P. S. Heithersay 《Mineralogy and Petrology》1994,51(2-4):299-321

Summary The Goonumbla porphyry copper-gold deposit in N.S.W., Australia, is hosted by late Ordovician (439.2 ± 1.2 Ma)shoshonitic igneous rocks. In terms of their petrography, the rocks vary from andesitic to dacitic lavas and tuffs which are partly intruded by monzonite stocks; they are characterized by high and variable Al₂O₃ (13.4–19.9 wt%), very high K₂O values (up to 6.8 wt%), and high K₂O/Na₂O ratios (0.58–1.48), which are typical for the shoshonite association. The rocks also have enriched LILE concentrations (Ba up to 1200 ppm, Sr up to 1350 ppm), low HFSE (TiO₂ < 0.67 wt%, Zr < 125 ppm, Nb < 10 ppm, Hf < 3.4 ppm), and very low LREE (La < 22.4 ppm, Ce < 31 ppm), which are typical for potassic volcanic rocks formed in alate oceanic-arc setting.Mineral chemistry of selected magmatic mica and apatite phenocrysts from host rocks reveals relatively high SrO and BaO contents (micas: 0.15 wt% and up to 0.28 wt%, respectively; apatites: up to 0.28 wt% and 0.19 wt%, respectively) and very high halogen concentrations. Micas are characterized by up to 3.9 wt% F and 0.14 wt% Cl, whereas apatites have up to 3.6 wt% F and 0.68 wt% Cl. These very high halogen contents compared to those from barren intrusions imply that the shoshonitic magmatism was the source of mineralization.Copper-gold mineralization consists mainly of bornite, chalcopyrite, chalcocite and minor pyrite and tetrahedrite. Native gold occurs mainly as minute grains within silicates of the host rocks, and more rarely as fine inclusions in the sulphides. Mineralization is accompanied by wallrock alteration comprising a spatially restricted potassic type and a regional propylitic alteration type.Thus, the porphyry copper-gold deposit in the Goonumbla district can be viewed as an additional example of a worldwide association between potassic/shoshonitic magmatism and base- and precious-metal mineralization. More specifically, it appears to be the oldest recorded example of a shoshontie-associated porphyry Cu-Au deposit from a late oceanic-arc setting, a possible modern analogue being Ladolam at Lihir Island, Papua New Guinea

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Die Shoshonit Porphyry Cu-Au Assoziation im Goonumbla Distrikt, N.S.W., Australien

Zusammenfassung Die Porphyry Cu-Au Vererzung im Goonumbla Distrikt in New South Wales, Australien, sitzt in oberordovizischen (ca. 439.2 ± 1.2 Ma) Shoshoniten auf. Das petrographische Spektrum dieser Gesteine reicht von andesitischen bis dazitischen Laven und Tuffen, die lokal von Monzonit-Stöcken intrudiert werden; die Gesteine besitzen hohe, aber variable Al₂O₃ Gehalte (13.4–19.9 Gew%), sehr hohe K₂O Gehalte (bis zu 6.8 Gew%) und hohe K₂O/Na₂O Verhältnisse (0.58–1.48), die typisch sind für Shoshonite. Außerdem weisen sie hohe Konzentrationen an LILE Elementen (Ba bis 1200 ppm, Sr bis 1350 ppm) auf und geringe Konzentrationen an HFSE (TiO₂ < 0.67 Gew%, Zr < 125 ppm, Nb < 10 ppm, Hf < 3.4 ppm) sowie an LREE (La < 22.4 ppm, Ce < 31 ppm), die als typisch gelten für potassische Vulkanite von ozeanischen Plattengrenzen.Die Mineralchemie von repräsentativen Glimmer- und Apatit-Phänokristallen ist charakterisiert durch hohe SrO und BaO Gehalte (Glimmer: 0.15 Gew%, bzw. bis 0.28 Gew%; Apatite: bis 0.28 Gew%, bzw. 0.19 Gew%). Sie enthalten ferner sehr hohe Halogen-Konzentrationen. Die Glimmer enthalten beispielsweise bis zu 3.9 Gew% F und 0.14 Gew% Cl, während Apatite bis zu 3.6 Gew% F und 0.68 Gew% Ci aufweisen. Dies erscheint nicht ungewöhnlich, weil Glimmer und Apatite von vererzten Mag matiten zumeist deutlich höhere Halogengehalte besitzen, als solche von unvererzten Magmatiten. Die hohen Halogen-Gehalte in Phänokristallen aus den Shoshoniten legen nahe, die Vulkanite als den Ursprung der Vererzung zu interpretieren.Die Cu-Au Vererzung besteht überwiegend aus den Sulfiden Bornit, Kupferkies, Kupferglanz und vereinzelt auftretendem Pyrit und Tetrahedrit. Gediegen Gold wird in der Regel nur als kleine Partikel innerhalb von Silikaten der shoshonitischen Wirtsgesteine und seltener als feine Einschlüsse in Sulfiden gefunden.Die Vererzung wird von hydrothermaler Alteration der Wirtsgesteine begleitet und zwei Alterationsarten lassen sich unterscheiden: eine potassische sowie eine regional zu beobachtende propylitische Alteration.Die Porphyry Cu-Au Lagerstätte im Goonumbla Gebiet ist ein Beispiel für die weltweit beobachtete Assoziation von Bunt- und Edelmetallvererzungen und potassisch/shoshonitischem Magmatismus. Der Goonumbla Distrikt stellt die älteste bisher bekannte Porphyry Cu-Au Lagerstätte aus einerspätgenetischen ozeanischen Plattengrenze dar. Einmodernes Beispiel für eine Cu-Au Lagerstätte vergleichbaren Typs ist Ladolam auf Lihir Island, Papua New Guinea.

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Early Cretaceous volcaniclastic and quartzose sandstones from north central Nepal: composition,sedimentology and geotectonic significance     

Sören B. Dürr  Martin R. Gibling 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》1994,83(1):62-75

Early Cretaceous sandstones and shales from the Thakkhola region (Chukh and Tangbe Formations) were deposited on the subsiding northern (Tethyan) margin of Gondwana; current directions indicate a source area to the south. Whereas the Berriasian Chukh Formation is dominated by quartz arenites, volcaniclastic sandstones and minor conglomerates dominate the Tangbe Formation of Valanginian to Aptian age. Upsection, the composition of the volcaniclastic components changes from mainly basaltic to dominantly dacitic/rhyolitic. Magmatism was preceded and accompanied by strong uplift in the source area of the Chukh and Tangbe clastics, resulting in the erosion of probably more than several hundred meters of pre-Cretaceous sedimentary, metamorphic and plutonic rocks. A geochemical whole rock analysis of basaltic pebble fragments shows their alkaline character and suggests a within-plate geotectonic setting for the volcanic source. This volcanotectonic event is probably related to rifting between Australia and Greater India, where seafloor spreading began in late Valanginian/Hauterivian times.  相似文献   

Upper Silesia,a forgotten region in Central Europe     

Adolf Kühnemann 《GeoJournal》1993,30(3):259-272

On the map of Europe, forming the south-western border region of Poland, is to be found the name Silesia, with in many cases its southern part emphasized — Upper Silesia. Any search for statistics as to its exact surface area and population size will be in vain. At the end of World War I, Upper Silesia found itself squeezed between two nationalistically-obsessed peoples, and economically too attractive to both to be allowed to play an idependent political role, as it had for centuries. Upper Silesia was in 1921 divided. After World War II, under the communist centralised power system, a completely colonial robber economy was pursued. Because of the coal production there is now here one of the greatest agglomeration areas in Europe, with an ageing heavy industry and a catastropihcally damaged environment.  相似文献   

Ozone production due to emissions from vegetation burning     

Günter Helas  Jürgen Lobert  Dieter Scharffe  Luise Schäfer  Johann Goldammer  Jean Baudet  Brou Ahoua  Ayité-Lô Ajavon  Jean-Pierre Lacaux  Robert Delmas  Meinrat O. Andreae 《Journal of Atmospheric Chemistry》1995,22(1-2):163-174

Ozone has been observed in elevated concentrations by satellites over areas previously believed to be background. There is meteorological evidence, that these ozone plumes found over the Atlantic Ocean originate from vegetation fires on the African continent.In a previous study (DECAFE-88), we have investigated ozone and assumed precursor compounds over African tropical forest regions. Our measurements revealed large photosmog layers at altitudes from 1.5 to 4 km. Both chemical and meteorological evidence point to savanna fires up to several thousand km upwind as sources.Here we describe ozone mixing ratios observed over western Africa and compare ozone production ratios from different field measurement campaigns related to vegetation burning. We find that air masses containing photosmog ingredients require several days to develop their oxidation potential, similar to what is known from air polluted by emissions from fossil fuel burning. Finally, we estimate the global ozone production due to vegetation fires and conclude that this source is comparable in strength to the stratospheric input.  相似文献   

A model of the origin of the Jovian ring     

E. Grün  G. Morfill  G. Schwehm  T.V. Johnson 《Icarus》1980,44(2):326-338

Starting with the assumption that the micron-sized particles which make up the bright Jovian ring are fragments of erosive collisions between micrometeoroid projectiles and large parent bodies, a physical model of the ring is calculated. The physics of high-velocity impacts leads to a well-defined size distribution for the ejecta, the optical properties of which can be compared with observation. This gives information on the ejecta material (very likely silicates) and on the maximum size of the projectiles, which turns out to be about 0.1 μm. The origin of these projectiles is discussed, and it is concluded that dust particles ejected in volcanic activity from Io are the most likely source. The impact model leads quite naturally to a distribution in ejecta sizes, which in turn determines the structure of the ring. The largest ejecta form the bright ring, medium-sized ejecta form a disk extending all the way to the Jovian atmosphere, and the small ejecta form a faint halo, the structure of which is dominated by electromagnetic forces. In addition to the Io particles, interaction with interplanetary micrometeoroids is also considered. It is concluded that μm-sized ejecta from this source have ejection velocities which are several orders of magnitude too large, and thus cannot contribute significantly to the observed bright ring. However, the total mass ejection rate is significant. Destruction of these ejecta by the Io particles may provide additional particles for the halo.  相似文献   

Spectral investigation of the chromosphere     

U. Grossmann-Doerth  Marina Von Uexküll 《Solar physics》1977,55(2):321-333

Several hundred H spectrograms from areas close to the solar limb were taken with the 35 cm Coudé refractor at Anacapri. The 41 spectra with the greatest spatial resolution were selected and analysed. At the supergranular boundaries a considerable fraction of the line profiles were found to correspond to Beckers Cloud Model (BCM). Moreover, the BCM parameters of the dark mottles at the limb appear to be approximately equal to those from the center of the disk. On the other hand, we also obtained evidence in disagreement with the general applicability of the BCM to all features of the chromospheric fine structure.We attempted to present the large set of observational data in a fashion that permits their interpretation by alternative theoretical models.Mitteilungen aus dem Fraunhofer Institut Nr. 151.  相似文献