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Urban growth and population growth are used in numerous models to determine their potential impacts on both the natural and the socio-economic systems. Cellular automata (CA) land-use models became popular for urban growth modelling since they predict spatial interactions between different land uses in an explicit and straightforward manner. A common deficiency of land-use models is that they only deal with abstract categories, while in reality, several activities are often hosted at one location (e.g. population, employment, agricultural yield, nature…). Recently, a multiple activity-based variable grid CA model was proposed to represent several urban activities (population and economic activities) within single model cells. The distance-decay influence rules of the model included both short- and long-distance interactions, but all distances between cells were simply Euclidean distances. The geometry of the real transportation system, as well as its interrelations with the evolving activities, were therefore not taken into account. To improve this particular model, we make the influence rules functions of time travelled on the transportation system. Specifically, the new algorithm computes and stores all travel times needed for the variable grid CA. This approach provides fast run times, and it has a higher resolution and more easily modified parameters than the alternative approach of coupling the activity-based CA model to an external transportation model. This paper presents results from one Euclidean scenario and four different transport network scenarios to show the effects on land-use and activity change in an application to Belgium. The approach can add value to urban scenario analysis and the development of transport- and activity-related spatial indicators, and constitutes a general improvement of the activity-based CA model.  相似文献   
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Lagrangian trajectory methods are often applied as deterministic transport models, where transport is due strictly to advection without taking into account stochastic elements of particle dispersion, which raises questions about validity of the model results. The present work investigates the impact of horizontal eddy diffusivity for a case study of coastal pollution in the Gulf of Finland, where the pollutants are assumed to originate from a major fairway and are transported to the coast by surface currents. Lagrangian trajectories are calculated using the TRACMASS model from velocity fields calculated by the Rossby Centre circulation model for 1982 to 2001. Three cases are investigated: (1) trajectory calculation without eddy diffusivity, (2) stochastic modelling of eddy diffusivity with a constant diffusion coefficient and (3) stochastic modelling of eddy diffusivity with a time- and space-variable diffusion coefficient. It is found that the eddy diffusivity effect increases the spreading rate of initially closely packed trajectories and the number of trajectories that eventually reach the coast. The pattern of most frequently hit coastal sections, the probability of hit to each such section and the time the pollution spends offshore are virtually invariant with respect to inclusion of eddy diffusivity.  相似文献   
65.
This is a paper from the Swedish research project ‘The coastal zone—scientific criteria for planners’. The goal has been to establish simple, general scientific methods for management of Swedish coastal waters. In this paper the focus is on a set of empirical data from 21 so-called type areas and on the exchange of surface water. The working hypothesis has been that the water retention (or residence) time is regulated by the morphometry. The theory has been verified. It has been shown that the water retention time can be determined from a formula based on only two key morphometric parameters, the exposure and the mean coastal width. It provides an 86% degree of explanation (r2=0·86) of the variation in empirically determined retention times and can be physically linked to the basic mass balance equation. The formula is valid for the bioproductive season (May–Oct.) and for small (1–100 km2) Swedish coastal areas. It cannot be directly applied to areas affected by heavy tides.  相似文献   
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In order to preserve diversity it is essential to understand how assemblages change across space. Despite this fact, we still know very little about how marine diversity is spatially distributed, especially among lesser‐studied invertebrate taxa. In the present study beta‐diversity patterns of sea urchins, sponges, mushroom corals and larger foraminifera were assessed in the Spermonde Archipelago (Indonesia). Using ordinations we showed that the inshore zone (<5 km offshore), midshore zone (5 < x < 30 km offshore) and distance offshore zone (>30 km offshore) all contained distinct assemblages of sponges and corals, while only foraminifera assemblages from the inshore (<5 km offshore) zone were distinct. There was a significant spatial pattern of community similarity for all taxa surveyed, but this pattern proved to be wholly related to environmental variables for sponges and foraminifera, and primarily for mushroom corals and sea urchins. The lack of a pure spatial component suggests that these taxa may not be dispersal limited within the spatial scales of this study (c. 1600 km2). The analyses of the corals and foraminifera were additionally tested at two spatial scales of sampling. Both taxa were primarily associated with local‐scale environmental variables at the local scale and larger‐scale variables at the larger scale. Mean inter‐plot similarity was also higher and variation lower at the larger scale. The results suggest that substantial variation in similarity can be predicted using simple locally assessed environmental variables combined with remotely sensed parameters.  相似文献   
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There are several pre-orogenic Neoproterozoic granitoid and metavolcanic rocks in the Lufilian–Zambezi belt in Zambia and Zimbabwe that are interpreted to have been emplaced in a continental-rift setting that is linked to the break-up of the Rodinia supercontinent. However, no geochemical data were previously available for these rocks in the Zambian part of the belt to support this model. We conducted petrographic and whole-rock chemical analyses of the Neoproterozoic Nchanga Granite, Lusaka Granite, Ngoma Gneiss and felsic metavolcanic rocks from the Lufilian–Zambezi belt in Zambian, in order to evaluate their chemical characteristics and tectonic settings. Other magmatic rocks of importance for understanding the evolution of the belt in Zambia, included in this study, are the Mesoproterozoic Munali Hills Granite and associated amphibolites and the Mpande Gneiss. The Neoproterozoic rocks have monzogranitic compositions, aluminum-saturation indices (ASI) < 1.1, and high contents of high field strength elements (HFSE) and rare earth elements (REE). The chondrite-normalised spider diagrams are similar to those of A-type granites from the Lachlan fold belt and show negative Sr, P, and Ti anomalies. On various tectonic discrimination diagrams the Neoproterozoic rocks plot mainly in A-type granite fields. These petrographic and trace element compositions indicate that these rocks are A-type felsic rocks, but they do not have features of granites and rhyolites emplaced in true continental-rift settings, as previously suggested. On the basis of the A-type features and independent regional geological and geochronological data, we suggest that the Neoproterozoic granitoid and felsic metavolcanic rocks were emplaced during the earliest extensional stages of continental rifting in the Lufilian–Zambezi belt. The apparent continental-arc like chemistry of the granitoid and felsic metavolcanic rocks is thus inferred to be inherited from calcalkaline sources. The Mesoproterozoic Munali Hills Granite and Mpande Gneiss have trace element features e.g., Nb–Ta depletions, which indicate that that these gneisses were emplaced in a convergent-margin setting. The MORB-normalised spider diagram of co-magmatic amphibolites exhibit a fractionated LILE/HFSE pattern recognized in subduction zones. This inference is consistent with remnants of ocean crust, juvenile Island arcs and ophiolites elsewhere in the Mesoproterozoic Irumide belt in Zambia and Zimbabwe. In addition, we report the first U–Pb zircon age of 1090.1 ± 1.3 Ma for the Munali Hills Granite. The age for the Munali Hills Granite provides new constraints on correlation and tectono-thermal activity in the Lufilian–Zambezi belt. The age of the Munali Hills Granite indicates that some supracrustal rocks in the Zambezi belt of Zambia, which were previously thought to be Neoproterozoic and correlated with the Katanga Supergroup in the Lufilian belt, are Mesoproterozoic or older. Consequently, previous regional lithostratigraphic correlations in the Lufilian–Zambezi belt would require revision.  相似文献   
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Stable unbonded fiber‐reinforced elastomeric isolators (SU‐FREIs) exhibit a characteristic horizontal softening and stiffening response, similar to other adaptive devices such as the triple friction pendulum and sliding systems with variable curvature. The transition between the softening and stiffening occurs at a displacement corresponding to a unique deformation known as full rollover. In this paper, the full rollover displacement of SU‐FREIs is altered by using modified support geometry (MSG), a geometric modification of the upper and lower supports applied to tailor the hysteresis loops of the isolator. Experimental results are used to calibrate a numerical model of a base‐isolated structure. The model demonstrates that the stiffening regime provides minimal restraint against displacements during events that meet or exceed the maximum considered earthquake. A parametric study revealed that the level of stiffening required to restrain displacements during large events is significant. This increase in stiffness is reflected in an increase in the response of the structure and light nonstructural components. Full rollover and MSG is considered advantageous to maintain horizontal stability and provide control over the stiffening of SU‐FREIs. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   
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