Bayesian estimation of seismic hazard for two sites in Switzerland     

Erik Rüttener  Juan José Egozcue  Dieter Mayer-Rosa  Stephan Mueller 《Natural Hazards》1996,14(2-3):165-178

Seismic hazard analysis is based on data and models, which both are imprecise and uncertain. Especially the interpretation of historical information into earthquake parameters, e.g. earthquake size and location, yields ambiguous and imprecise data. Models based on probability distributions have been developed in order to quantify and represent these uncertainties. Nevertheless, the majority of the procedures applied in seismic hazard assessment do not take into account these uncertainties, nor do they show the variance of the results. Therefore, a procedure based on Bayesian statistics was developed to estimate return periods for different ground motion intensities (MSK scale).Bayesian techniques provide a mathematical model to estimate the distribution of random variables in presence of uncertainties. The developed method estimates the probability distribution of the number of occurrences in a Poisson process described by the parameter . The input data are the historical occurrences of intensities for a particular site, represented by a discrete probability distribution for each earthquake. The calculation of these historical occurrences requires a careful preparation of all input parameters, i.e. a modelling of their uncertainties. The obtained results show that the variance of the recurrence rate is smaller in regions with higher seismic activity than in less active regions. It can also be demonstrated that long return periods cannot be estimated with confidence, because the time period of observation is too short. This indicates that the long return periods obtained by seismic source methods only reflects the delineated seismic sources and the chosen earthquake size distribution law.  相似文献   

Red dust rain within the Spanish Mediterranean area     

José Quereda Sala  Jorge Olcina Cantos  Enrique Montón Chiva 《Climatic change》1996,32(2):215-228

Dust rain belongs to the climatological conditions of the Iberian Peninsula's Mediterranean seaboard. Traditionally known as muddy' or bloody rains, red dust rain has become a topical issue as a result of more frequent rainfall of this kind in recent years. In spite of the difficulties that studying this phenomenon involves, owing to the lack of systematically kept records at meteorological observatories, details are provided of the high frequency of such phenomena within the Spanish Mediterranean area, using records from other phenological sources. The study analyzes the chemical composition of red dust rain and the atmospheric factors giving rise to such phenomena. Whether there is a relationship betwen the higher frequency of dust rain and possible changes in global atmospheric circulation is as yet unclear.  相似文献   

About the specification of erosion flux for soft stratified cohesive sediments     

Georges Chapalain  Y. Peter Sheng  André T. Temperville 《Mathematical Geology》1994,26(6):651-676

The present paper deals with the specification of bed erosion flux that accounts for the effects of sediment-induced stratification in the water column. Owing to difficulties in measuring the bed shear stress _b and the erosive shear strength _s, we suggest a series of methods that combine laboratory and numerical experiments. A simplified turbulent transport model that includes these effects helps to quantify _b and _s. Focusing on soft stratified beds, the present study considers erosion rate formulas of the form =_f exp {[T_b-T_s]} where is a model constant (=1 for Gularte's (1978) formula and =1/2 for Parchure's (1984) formula). First, the bed erosive strength profile _s(Z) is adjusted by forcing the turbulent transport model with measured erosion rates. Second, three procedures are suggested to determine the erosion rate formula coefficients _f and : a global procedure and two different layer-by-layer procedures. Each procedure is applied to an erosion experiment conducted in a rotating annular flume by Villaret and Paulic (1986). The use of the layer-by-layer procedure based on a least squares fitting technique provides a closer fit than the global procedure. The present study points out the complementarity of experimental and numerical approaches and also suggests possible improvements in laboratory test procedures.  相似文献   

Phase differences between irradiance and velocity low degree solar acoustic modes revisited     

A. Jiménez 《Solar physics》1994,152(1):319-319

Since 1984, simultaneous observations of irradiance and velocity solar acoustic modes, have been carried out by several authors in order to measure the phase difference between irradiance and velocity modes. Following the earliest observations with stratospheric balloon (Frolich and van Der Raay, 1984), a two ground-based stations (Tenerife and Baja California) were established (Jimenez et al, 1990) obtaining coherence results in the frequency range from 2.5 mHz to 4.3 mHz. These phase differences between irradiance and velocity solar acoustic modes are interpreted in terms of the non-adiabatic behaviour of the solar atmosphere. In 1988 the IPHIR (Frolich et al, 1988) instrument flown on the PHOBOS-2 mission to Mars and measured the solar irradiance during 150 consecutive days. The best velocity observations obtained in Tenerife for this period were compared with IPHIR data to compute the phase differences (Schrijver et al, 1991). The final conclusion is that good agreement is attained between space quadsi-space and ground observations which yield a phase diffenrece of about -125 degrees in the frequency range 2.5 mHz to 4.2 mHz, with a slight increase suggested by the data running up to 4.6 mHz.  相似文献   

Laboratory study of the rates and products of the phototransformations of naphthalene adsorbed on samples of titanium dioxide,ferric oxide,muscovite, and fly ash     

Chantal Guillard  Hervé Delprat  Can Hoang-van  Pierre Pichat 《Journal of Atmospheric Chemistry》1993,16(1):47-59

The photodegradation of naphthalene (NPH), chosen as a model of polynuclear aromatic pollutants, has been studied in the presence of a layer of four water-insoluble inorganic solids which can be found in the troposphere (TiO₂, Fe₂O₃, muscovite, and a fly ash sample). Direct photolysis of NPH is negligible at >340 nm. Dark adsorption of NPH on TiO₂ (mainly anatase, nonporous, 50 m² g^–1) at 293 K corresponds to a surface coverage ofca. 50% at equilibrium. Under these conditions (saturated surface), the stationary-state photocatalytic degradation reaches 0.4 molecule nm^–2 h^–1 (>340 nm, radiant fluxca. 22 mW cm^–2). Dioxygen is required and its partial pressure in air is such that the degradation is zero order in O₂. Water vapor markedly increases the rate. The other particulates have also an effect, less important than that of TiO₂, however quite noticeable with respect to surface area unit for the fly ash sample which contains 3.2% Fe₂O₃. Apart from 1,4-naphthoquinone, which is the main intermediate product in all cases, 2-naphthol, phthalide, phthaldialdehyde, phthalic acid, acetophenone, benzaldehyde, benzoic acid are also formed on dry TiO₂. Depending on their volatility, these compounds are transferred to the gas phase or remain principally adsorbed on the solid particles where they are further transformed. For instance, phthalic acid (or anhydride) and benzoic acid are generated from 1,4-naphthoquinone. Degradation mechanisms are briefly discussed.  相似文献   

On the tidal variation of the geopotential     

José M. Ferrándiz  Juan Getino 《Celestial Mechanics and Dynamical Astronomy》1993,57(1-2):279-292

In this paper analytical expressions are derived for the temporal variations ofJ ₂ andJ ₂₂ due to the tides of the solid Earth, taking into account only the deformation of the mantle, and employing a procedure already used by the authors in their Hamiltonian theory of the Earth's rotation, which obtain the necessary parameters in a direct way by integration of those provided by a selected model of Earth interior.Numerical tables giving the periodic variation of coefficients are given, as well as a new prediction for UT1. For J ₂ and J ₂₂ the amplitudes reach such a magnitude that both two variations should not be ignored in studies involving the analysis of highly precise satellite tracking data. Moreover, the possibility of improving our knowledge of the value of those harmonic coefficients in only a more exact digit appears as to be strongly dependent on the limitations in the theoretical modeling of the variations of the inertia tensor due to solid tides.  相似文献   

Generalized Lyapunov exponents indicators in Hamiltonian dynamics: An application to a double star system     

E. Lohinger  C. Froeschlé  R. Dvorak 《Celestial Mechanics and Dynamical Astronomy》1993,56(1-2):315-322

The Lyapunov characteristic numbers (LCNs) which are defined as the mean value of the distribution of the local variations of the tangent vectors to the flow (=ln _k ⁱ ) (see Froeschlé, 1984) have been found to be sensitive indicators of stochasticity. So we computed the distribution of these local variations and determined the moments of higher order for the integrable and stochastic regions in a binary star system with =0.5.  相似文献   

Chemical abundance behavior of type I planetary nebulae     

M. Faúndez-Abans  J. L. Jiménez O 《Astrophysics and Space Science》1993,207(1):47-53

In this work 13 Planetary Nebulae have been classified as Type I according to Peimbert's criteria (Peimbert, 1978). These objects have been added to a previous sample (Maciel and Faúndez-Abans, 1985) and diagrams of O/H versus N/H, S/H, Ne/H and Ar/H, as well as N/H versus S/H, Ne/H and Ar/H have been drawn. All of them exhibit a tendency for linear correlation; moreover, the behavior of O and N versus Ar and S are very similar, with approximately the same slope. When the excitation class parameter was included in the diagrams, no clear tendency can be discerned, for any class.  相似文献   

The role of bathymetry and directional wave conditions on observed crescentic bar dynamics     

Rinse L. de Swart  Francesca Ribas  Gonzalo Simarro  Jorge Guillén  Daniel Calvete 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2021,46(15):3252-3270

Nearshore sandbars are important features in the surf zone of many beaches because they strongly influence the mean circulation and evolving morphology. Due to variations in wave conditions, sandbars can experience cross-shore migration and vary in shape from alongshore uniform (shore-parallel) to alongshore rhythmic (crescentic). Sandbar dynamics have been studied extensively, but existing observational studies usually do not quantify the processes leading to crescentic bar formation and straightening. This study analyses the dynamics of crescentic bar events at the fetch-limited beach of Castelldefels (northwestern Mediterranean Sea, Spain) using 7.5 years of hourly time-exposure video images and detailed wave conditions. The results show that, despite the generally calm wave conditions, the sandbars were very dynamic in the cross-shore and longshore directions. They often migrated rapidly offshore during storms (up to 70 m in one day) and more slowly onshore during post-storm conditions. Crescentic bars were often present at the study site (48% of the time), but only when the sandbar was at least 10 m from the shoreline. They displayed a large variability in wavelengths (100–700 m), alongshore migration speeds (0–50 m/day) and cross-shore amplitudes (5–20 m). Wavelengths increased for larger bar–shoreline distances and the alongshore migration speeds were strongly correlated with the alongshore component of the radiation stresses. Crescentic patterns typically developed during low–medium energetic waves with limited obliquity ( $\theta \lesssim 20$° at 10 m depth), while bar straightening occurred during medium–high energetic waves with strong oblique angles of incidence ( $\theta \gtrsim 15$°). Overall, this study provides further proof for the important role of wave direction in crescentic bar dynamics and highlights the strong dependence of crescentic bar development on the initial bathymetric configuration.  相似文献   

The use of rogation ceremony records in climatic reconstruction: a case study from Catalonia (Spain)     

Javier Martín-Vide  Mariano Barriendos Vallvé 《Climatic change》1995,30(2):201-221

The use of rogation ceremonies due to environmental causes constitutes an important source of information in paleoclimatic reconstructions. Their specific characteristics and full documental records permit highly reliable series to be reconstructed with daily, monthly, seasonal or annual resolution over periods of several centuries (3–4 centuries in the case of Catalonia). The levels of intensity, reflected in the type of religious ceremony enacted, allows quantification. Comparative analysis is made possible by the similarity of the mechanisms developed in different localities. The use of these series in paleoclimatological studies is a promising line of research, particularly as regards the pro pluvia rogations celebrated in the Mediterranean countries and in South America.  相似文献