Preparing a seismic hazard model for Switzerland: the view from PEGASOS Expert Group 3 (EG1c)   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Roger M. W. Musson  Souad Sellami  Wolfgang Brüstle 《Swiss Journal of Geoscience》2009,102(1):107-120

The seismic hazard model used in the PEGASOS project for assessing earth-quake hazard at four NPP sites was a composite of four sub-models, each produced by a team of three experts. In this paper, one of these models is described in detail by the authors. A criticism sometimes levelled at probabilistic seismic hazard studies is that the process by which seismic source zones are arrived at is obscure, subjective and inconsistent. Here, we attempt to recount the stages by which the model evolved, and the decisions made along the way. In particular, a macro-to-micro approach was used, in which three main stages can be described. The first was the characterisation of the overall kinematic model, the “big picture” of regional seismogenesis. Secondly, this was refined to a more detailed seismotectonic model. Lastly, this was used as the basis of individual sources, for which parameters can be assessed. Some basic questions had also to be answered about aspects of the approach to modelling to be used: for instance, is spatial smoothing an appropriate tool to apply? Should individual fault sources be modelled in an intraplate environment? Also, the extent to which alternative modelling decisions should be expressed in a logic tree structure has to be considered.  相似文献   

Fluctuations of floods of the River Morava (Czech Republic) in the 1691–2009 period: interactions of natural and anthropogenic factors     

R. Brázdil  L. Řezníčková  H. Valášek  M. Havlíček  P. Dobrovolný  E. Soukalová 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(3):468-485

Abstract

Floods from the middle part of the River Morava (eastern Czech Republic) are considered over the course of the past three centuries, the study being based on data derived from documentary evidence (1691–1880), measured peak water stages, H_k (1881–1920) and peak discharges, Q_k (1916–2009), evaluated with respect to their N-year return period (H_N and Q_N ). Changes in land use and water management (water reservoirs, channel modifications) are discussed, as are factors influencing runoff conditions in the Morava catchment. Decadal synthesis of flood series identifies the highest flood activity in the decades of 1911–1920 and 1961–1970 (11 floods each), 1831–1840, 1891–1900, 1901–1910 and 1931–1940 (10 floods each). Uncertainty in this series is related to some incompleteness of documentary data in the pre-1881 period. Very low flood frequency occurred in the 1990s–2000s, although the most disastrous floods were recorded in this particular period (July 1997 at Q ₁₀₀ and March/April 2006 at Q ₂₀–Q ₅₀). Changes in flood frequency correspond partly to long-term changes in temperature and precipitation patterns.

Citation Brázdil, R., ?ezní?ková, L., Valá?ek, H., Havlí?ek, M., Dobrovolný, P., Soukalová, E., ?ehánek, T. & Skokanová, H. (2011) Fluctuations of floods of the River Morava (Czech Republic) in the 1691–2009 period: interactions of natural and anthropogenic factors. Hydrol. Sci. J. 56(3), 468–485.  相似文献   

A study to discriminate local,urban and regional source contributions to the particulate matter concentrations in the city of Dresden,Germany     

T. Gnauk  K. Müller  E. Brüggemann  W. Birmili  K. Weinhold  D. van Pinxteren  G. Löschau  G. Spindler  H. Herrmann 《Journal of Atmospheric Chemistry》2011,68(3):199-231

The fractions of local traffic (LT), urban background (UBG) and regional background (RBG) of the particle pollution at a traffic-influenced kerbside in Dresden, Germany, were determined by measurements of size-segregated mass concentration, chemical composition and particle size distributions in a network of five measurement stations partly existing and partly set up for this study. Besides the kerbside station, one urban background site and three rural sites were included in the study. Using data from these different sites, the LT, UBG, and RBG contributions were calculated, following the approach of Lenschow et al. (2001). At the kerbside site, 19% of the total number concentration (Dp_St = 10–600 nm) could be attributed to the RBG, 15% to the UBG, and 66% to the LT immediately nearby. Particle mass concentrations up to Dp_aer = 420 nm RBG amounts to 68%, UBG to 21%, and LT only to 11%. Highest mass concentrations were observed at all stations in autumn and winter during easterly inflow directions. The local traffic fraction of PM₁₀ mass at the kerbside station was found to be 30% for westerly inflow, but only 7% for southeasterly inflow due to the dominating transport fraction from up to 80% of the particle mass at this inflow direction. Size-resolved investigation showed the main fractions in both the particle size ranges of Dp_aer = 0.42 to 1.2 and 0.14 to 0.42 μm at all stations. The main components sulphate, ammonium and total carbon showed higher concentrations at south-eastern/eastern inflow in autumn at all stations, while nitrate at the kerbside and urban background site was higher during westerly inflow in winter. The chemical composition at the regional background site at westerly inflow (12% nitrate, 8% sulphate, 11% total carbon) was significantly different from that at easterly inflow (3% nitrate, 15% sulphate, 22% total carbon). The prevailing part of the ionic mass was always found in the fine particle range of Dp_aer = 0.14 to 1.2 μm at all stations. For all inflow directions highest total carbon concentrations were observed at the kerbside station, especially in the ultra-fine size range of Dp_aer = 0.05 to 0.14 μm with up to 30% of the whole carbon. PAH concentrations were always higher at south-eastern/eastern inflow especially during wintertime. Trace metal components and silicon were found mainly in the coarse mode fraction at the kerbside resulting from abrasion or resuspension.  相似文献   

Artificial light at night: implications for early life stages development in four temperate freshwater fish species   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Anika Brüning  Franz Hölker  Christian Wolter 《Aquatic Sciences - Research Across Boundaries》2011,73(1):143-152

Flora and fauna have both evolved under a natural cycle of light and dark. But especially in urban areas, the night is now increasingly disturbed by artificial light. Many traits and behaviours in fish are triggered by a circadian clock, for example hatching and swim bladder inflation, which predominantly take place at dusk or night. As lighting becomes brighter and extends farther into rural areas, the distinction between day and night becomes increasingly blurred. Therefore, the loss of diurnal trigger by artificial light at night was hypothesized having deleterious effects on these traits and impact fish reproduction. To assess these effects, eggs of four native freshwater fishes, Eurasian perch Perca fluviatilis, roach Rutilus rutilus, bleak Alburnus alburnus and chub Leuciscus cephalus, were incubated under two different light conditions: a photoperiod of 14 h light:10 h darkness (LD) and continuous illumination (LL). The time to hatch and swim bladder inflation was recorded. The species showed inconsistent reactions to the light treatments. In roach and bleak, the time to 50% hatch was longer in LL, whereas continuous lighting had an accelerating effect in chub. Incubation in LL elongated the hatching period in perch and roach and, in perch, the onset of darkness seemed to trigger hatching. The swim bladder inflation was significantly promoted by continuous light in chub and bleak but was not affected in roach. In conclusion, nocturnal artificial illumination could have an effect on hatching and initial swim bladder filling by masking the day–night-change and thereby diminish the trigger effect. However, the reactions were species specific and the increase in variation indicated a lack of diurnal triggering, whilst a general deleterious effect of artificial light at night has not been identified on early life stages.  相似文献   

Sampling strategy and climatic implications of tree-ring stable isotopes on the southeast Tibetan Plateau     

Chunming Shi  Valérie Masson-Delmotte  Camille Risi  Thomas Eglin  Michel Stievenard  Monique Pierre  Xiaochun Wang  Jing Gao  François-Marie Bréon  Qi-Bin Zhang  Valérie Daux 《Earth and Planetary Science Letters》2011,301(1-2):307-316

We explore the potential of tree-ring cellulose δ¹⁸O and δ¹³C records for reconstructing climate variability in the southeast Tibetan Plateau. Our sampling strategy was designed to investigate intra and inter-tree variability, and the effects of the age of tree on δ¹⁸O variation. We show that intra-tree δ¹³C and δ¹⁸O variability is negligible, and inter-tree coherence is sufficient to build robust tree-ring δ¹⁸O or δ¹³C chronologies based on only four trees. There is no evidence of an age effect regarding δ¹⁸O, in contrast with tree-ring width. In our warm and moist sampling site, young tree δ¹³C is not clearly correlated with monthly mean meteorological data. Tree-ring δ¹⁸O appears significantly anti-correlated with summer precipitation amount, regional cloud cover, and relative humidity. Simulations conducted with the ORCHIDEE land surface model confirm the observed contribution of relative humidity to tree cellulose δ¹⁸O, and explain the weak correlation of δ¹³C with climate by the non-linear integration linked with photosynthesis. Altogether, the tree-ring cellulose δ¹⁸O is shown to be a promising proxy to reconstruct regional summer moisture variability prior to the instrumental period.  相似文献   

Chemical composition of spinel from Uralian-Alaskan-type Mafic–Ultramafic complexes and its petrogenetic significance     

J. Krause  G. E. Brügmann  E. V. Pushkarev 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》2011,161(2):255-273

Uralian-Alaskan-type mafic–ultramafic complexes are recognized as a distinct class of intrusions regarding lithologic assemblage, mineral chemistry and petrogenetic setting. In the present study, we discuss new data on the distribution of major elements in minerals of the spinel group in rocks from Uralian-Alaskan-type complexes in the Ural Mountains, Russia. Cr-rich spinel (Cr₂O₃ = 20–53 wt%) in dunite with interstitial clinopyroxene and in wehrlite cumulates indicate that it reacted with interstitial liquid resulting in the progressive substitution of Al₂O₂ and Cr₂O₃ by Fe₂O₃ and TiO₂. A distinct change in the spinel chemistry in dunite (Cr₂O₃ = 47–53 wt%), towards Al₂O₃- and Cr₂O₃-poor but Fe₂O₃-rich compositions monitors the onset of clinopyroxene fractionation in wehrlite (Cr₂O₃ = 15–35 wt%, Al₂O₃ = 1–8 wt%, Fe₂O₃ = 25–55 wt%). In more fractionated mafic rocks, the calculated initial composition of exsolved spinel traces the sustained crystallization of clinopyroxene by decreasing Cr₂O₃ and increasing FeO, Fe₂O₃ and fO₂. Finally, the initiation of feldspar crystallization buffers the Al₂O₃ content in most of the spinels in mafic rocks at very low Cr₂O₃ contents (<5 wt%). The fractionation path all along and the reaction with interstitial liquid are accompanied by increasing Fe₂O₃ contents in the spinel. This likely is caused by a significant increase in the oxygen fugacity, which suggests closed system fractionation processes. Spinel with Cr₂O₃ < 27 wt% is exsolved into a Fe₂O₃-rich and an Al₂O₃-rich phase forming a variety of textures. Remarkably, exsolved spinel in different lithologies from complexes 200 km apart follows one distinct solvus line defining a temperature of ca. 600°C. This indicates that the parental magmas were emplaced and eventually cooled at similar levels in the lithosphere, likely near the crust–mantle boundary. Eventually, these 600°C hot bodies were rapidly transported into colder regions of the upper crust during a regional tectonic event, probably during the major active phase of the Main Uralian Fault.  相似文献   

Rainfall-induced landslide event of May 2010 in the eastern part of the Czech Republic   总被引：3，自引：2，他引：1  

Tom��? P��nek  Rudolf Br��zdil  Jan Klime?  Veronika Smolkov��  Jan Hradecky  Pavel Zahradn��?ek 《Landslides》2011,8(4):507-516

More than 150 landslides originated in the eastern part of the Czech Republic (region of the Flysch Outer Western Carpathians—hereinafter, OWC) due to soil saturation caused by antecedent precipitation and long lasting and intensive rainfalls on 16–18 May 2010 (>300 mm as measured by some stations). As a consequence, a multitude of small failures originated 88% of which was smaller than 10⁴ m². Most landslides are characterised as shallow (<10 m) or middle–deep (10–30 m) incipient (rather short travel) landslides, debris slides and soil slips spatially clustered to a geological domain underlain by rather weak thin-bedded flysch and unconsolidated Quaternary deposits. An exception to this is represented by a kilometre-long rockslide (∼2–3 mil m³) affecting tectonically weakened and weathered claystone/mudstone-dominated flysch on the southern slope of Mt. Girová (the Beskydy Mountains). The rockslide is one of the largest long runout landslides in the territory of the Czech Republic activated over the past few decades as it reaches the dimensions of the largest documented Holocene long runout landslides in the Czech part of the OWC. A majority of the May 2010 landslide events developed inside older (Holocene or historic) landslide terrains, which points to their spatial persistency and recurrent nature. In spite of the fact that the May 2010 landslide event was not as destructive as some previous landslide activisation in the OWC region (e.g. July 1997 event), it left many slope failures at the initial stage of their potential future reactivation.  相似文献   

Platinum-group element distribution in base-metal sulfides of the Merensky Reef from the eastern and western Bushveld Complex, South Africa     

Inga Osbahr  Reiner Klemd  Thomas Oberthür  Helene Brätz  Robert Schouwstra 《Mineralium Deposita》2013,48(2):211-232

Base-metal sulfides in magmatic Ni-Cu-PGE deposits are important carriers of platinum-group elements (PGE). The distribution and concentrations of PGE in pentlandite, pyrrhotite, chalcopyrite, and pyrite were determined in samples from the mineralized portion of four Merensky Reef intersections from the eastern and western Bushveld Complex. Electron microprobe analysis was used for major elements, and in situ laser ablation inductively-coupled plasma mass spectrometry (LA-ICP-MS) for trace elements (PGE, Ag, and Au). Whole rock trace element analyses were performed on representative samples to obtain mineralogical balances. In Merensky Reef samples from the western Bushveld, both Pt and Pd are mainly concentrated in the upper chromitite stringer and its immediate vicinity. Samples from the eastern Bushveld reveal more complex distribution patterns. In situ LA-ICP-MS analyses of PGE in sulfides reveal that pentlandite carries distinctly elevated PGE contents, whereas pyrrhotite and chalcopyrite only contain very low PGE concentrations. Pentlandite is the principal host of Pd and Rh in the ores. Palladium and Rh concentrations in pentlandite reach up to 700 and 130 ppm, respectively, in the samples from the eastern Bushveld, and up to 1,750 ppm Pd and up to 1,000 ppm Rh in samples from the western Bushveld. Only traces of Pt are present in the base-metal sulfides (BMS). Pyrrhotite contains significant though generally low amounts of Ru, Os, and Ir, but hardly any Pd or Rh. Chalcopyrite contains most of the Ag but carries only extremely low PGE concentrations. Mass balance calculations performed on the Merensky Reef samples reveal that in general, pentlandite in the feldspathic pyroxenite and the pegmatoidal feldspathic pyroxenite hosts up to 100 % of the Pd and Rh and smaller amounts (10–40 %) of the Os, Ir, and Ru. Chalcopyrite and pyrrhotite usually contain less than 10 % of the whole rock PGE. The remaining PGE concentrations, and especially most of the Pt (up to 100 %), are present in the form of discrete platinum-group minerals such as cooperite/braggite, sperrylite, moncheite, and isoferroplatinum. Distribution patterns of whole rock Cu, Ni, and S versus whole rock Pd and Pt show commonly distinct offsets. The general sequence of “offset patterns” of PGE and BMS maxima, in the order from bottom to top, is Pd in pentlandite?→?Pd in whole rock?→?(Cu, Ni, and S). The relationship is not that straightforward in general; some of the reef sequences studied only partially show similar trends or are more complex. In general, however, the highest Pd concentrations in pentlandite appear to be related to the earliest, volumetrically rather small sulfide liquids at the base of the Merensky Reef sequence. A possible explanation for the offset patterns may be Rayleigh fractionation.  相似文献   

Regional sulfate–hematite–sulfide zoning in the auriferous Mariana anticline, Quadrilátero Ferrífero of Minas Gerais, Brazil     

Alexandre Raphael Cabral  Nikola Koglin  Harald Strauss  Helene Brätz  Rogerio Kwitko-Ribeiro 《Mineralium Deposita》2013,48(7):805-816

The distribution of mineral deposits, characterised as barite deposits, hematite-rich auriferous deposits and auriferous tourmaline–sulfide deposits, displays a regional sulfate–hematite–sulfide zoning along the thrust-delineated limbs of the Mariana anticline, in the south-eastern part of the Quadrilátero Ferrífero of Minas Gerais, Brazil. Cross-cut relationships of barite veins and sulfide lodes indicate that sulfidation occurred in a late-tectonic context, which is here attributed to the collapse of the ～0.6-Ga Brasiliano thrust front. Reconnaissance S-isotopic data from barite and pyrite (Antônio Pereira barite deposit and its adjacent gold deposit, respectively), and arsenopyrite (Passagem de Mariana gold deposit), suggest a new interpretation for the hydrothermal fluid overprint in the Mariana anticline. The Antônio Pereira barite has Δ³³S values that are near zero, constraining the sulfate source to rocks younger than 2.45 Ga. The barite-δ³⁴S values are between +19.6 and +20.8?‰. The Passagem arsenopyrite and tourmaline have Co/Ni ratios that define a positive linear trend with the Antônio Pereira pyrite. The latter has homogenous δ³⁴S values, between +8.8 and +8.9?‰, which are compatible with thermochemical reduction of aqueous sulfate with the S-isotopic composition of the Antônio Pereira barite.  相似文献   

Cu- and Mn-bearing tourmalines from Brazil and Mozambique: crystal structures, chemistry and correlations     

Andreas Ertl  Gerald Giester  Ulrich Schüssler  Helene Brätz  Martin Okrusch  Ekkehart Tillmanns  Hermann Bank 《Mineralogy and Petrology》2013,107(2):265-279

Cu- and Mn-bearing tourmalines from Brazil and Mozambique were characterised chemically (EMPA and LA-ICP-MS) and by X-ray single-crystal structure refinement. All these samples are rich in Al, Li and F (fluor-elbaite) and contain significant amounts of CuO (up to ~1.8 wt%) and MnO (up to ~3.5 wt%). Structurally investigated samples show a pronounced positive correlation between the <Y-O> distances and the (Li + Mn²⁺ + Cu + Fe²⁺) content (apfu) at this site with R ² = 0.90. An excellent negative correlation exists between the <Y-O> distances and the Al₂O₃ content (R ² = 0.94). The samples at each locality generally show a strong negative correlation between the X-site vacancies and the (MnO + FeO) content. The Mn content in these tourmalines depends on the availability of Mn, on the formation temperature, as well as on stereochemical constraints. Because of a very weak correlation between MnO and CuO we believe that the Cu content in tourmaline is essentially dependent on the availability of Cu and on stereochemical constraints.  相似文献