Adaptation to climate change and variability: farmer responses to intra-seasonal precipitation trends in South Africa   总被引：11，自引：1，他引：11  

David S. G. Thomas  Chasca Twyman  Henny Osbahr  Bruce Hewitson 《Climatic change》2007,83(3):301-322

We describe the nature of recent (50 year) rainfall variability in the summer rainfall zone, South Africa, and how variability is recognised and responded to on the ground by farmers. Using daily rainfall data and self-organising mapping (SOM) we identify 12 internally homogeneous rainfall regions displaying differing parameters of precipitation change. Three regions, characterised by changing onset and timing of rains, rainfall frequencies and intensities, in Limpopo, North West and KwaZulu Natal provinces, were selected to investigate farmer perceptions of, and responses to, rainfall parameter changes. Village and household level analyses demonstrate that the trends and variabilities in precipitation parameters differentiated by the SOM analysis were clearly recognised by people living in the areas in which they occurred. A range of specific coping and adaptation strategies are employed by farmers to respond to climate shifts, some generic across regions and some facilitated by specific local factors. The study has begun to understand the complexity of coping and adaptation, and the factors that influence the decisions that are taken.  相似文献   

Soil carbon sequestration   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Bruce A. McCarl  F. Blaine Metting  Charles Rice 《Climatic change》2007,80(1-2):1-3

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Ecotone displacement trends on a highly dynamic barrier Island: Hog Island,Virginia     

Michael S. Fenster  Bruce P. Hayden 《Estuaries and Coasts》2007,30(6):978-988

Aerial photographs, recording 12 positions of the shoreline and vegetation line over a 50-yr period, were used to investigate long-term ecotone displacement trends and the relationship between ecotone displacement and shoreline migration on Hog Island, Virginia. A robust regression modeling technique, originally developed for shoreline trend detection analyses, enabled examination of the direction, magnitude, and timing of changes in long-term ecotone displacement. Measurements were obtained at 277 shore normal transects spaced 50 m apart. The results show that long-term trends in ecotone displacement and shoreline movement are nonlinear for over three-fourths of the Hog Island coast. On average, the shoreline and vegetation line experienced reversals in 1972 and 1974, respectively. Rarely did the ecotones and shorelines move in tandem or synchronously. Concavity tests indicate that most of the shoreline and ecotone are currently moving seaward and the distance between the shoreline and vegetation line is decreasing through time. Evidence exists for a decennial time lag between the reversal of the shoreline and the ecotone and vice versa. The ecotone and shoreline trends apparently correspond to tidal inlet dynamics, individual storm events, storm climate, inherited topography (e.g., dune), and vegetation type.  相似文献   

Regional atmospheric circulation change in the North Pacific during the Holocene inferred from lacustrine carbonate oxygen isotopes, Yukon Territory, Canada     

Lesleigh Anderson  Mark B. Abbott  Bruce P. Finney  Stephen J. Burns 《Quaternary Research》2005,64(1):21-35

Analyses of sediment cores from Jellybean Lake, a small, evaporation-insensitive groundwater-fed lake, provide a record of changes in North Pacific atmospheric circulation for the last ∼7500 yr at 5- to 30-yr resolution. Isotope hydrology data from the southern Yukon indicate that the oxygen isotope composition of water from Jellybean Lake reflects the composition of mean-annual precipitation, δ¹⁸O_p. Recent changes in the δ¹⁸O of Jellybean sedimentary calcite (δ¹⁸O_ca) correspond to changes in the North Pacific Index (NPI), a measure of the intensity and position of the Aleutian Low (AL) pressure system. This suggests that δ¹⁸O_p variability was related to the degree of fractionation during moisture transport from the Gulf of Alaska across the St. Elias Mountains and that Holocene shifts were controlled by the intensity and position of the AL. Following this model, between ∼7500 and 4500 cal yr B.P., long-term trends suggest a predominantly weaker and/or westward AL. Between ∼4500 and 3000 cal yr B.P. the AL shifted eastward or intensified before shifting westward or weakening between ∼3000 and 2000 cal yr B.P. Rapid shifts eastward and/or intensification occurred ∼1200 and 300 cal yr B.P. Holocene changes in North Pacific atmospheric circulation inferred from Jellybean Lake oxygen isotopes correspond with late Holocene glacial advances in the St. Elias Mountains, changes in North Pacific salmon abundance, and shifts in atmospheric circulation over the Beaufort Sea.  相似文献   

Field validation of antioxidant enzyme biomarkers in mussels (Perna viridis) and clams (Ruditapes philippinarum) transplanted in Hong Kong coastal waters   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：1  

Sharon B. De Luca-Abbott  Bruce J. Richardson  Katherine E. McClellan  Gene J. Zheng  Michael Martin  Paul K.S. Lam 《Marine pollution bulletin》2005,51(8-12):694

Green-lipped mussels, Perna viridis, and Manila clams, Ruditapes philippinarum were sourced from “clean” sites in the Hong Kong region, depurated in a laboratory using uncontaminated filtered seawater for 8 days, and transplanted to a suspected gradient of chemically polluted sites in Hong Kong. After 14- and 28-days of field exposure, several antioxidant parameters including glutathione S transferase (GST), catalase (CAT), glutathione peroxidase (GPx), and glutathione (GSH) were quantified in gill and hepatopancreas tissues. Whole body tissue concentrations of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), petroleum hydrocarbons (PHCs), polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and organochlorine pesticides (OCs) were determined in pooled site samples. Chemical analyses indicated that: (a) clams had higher levels of PAHs, PHCs, DDTs and PCBs, whereas mussels had higher hexachlorocyclohexane (HCHs) and there was no difference between species for dieldrin and remaining OCs; (b) Kat O should not be continued as a “clean” reference site for Hong Kong, because of the levels of contaminants measured and (c) PAH concentrations in the current survey were similar to those previously measured. Toxicological conclusions were: (a) antioxidant responses were different between species; (b) CAT and GST have highest utility in clams for field use in Hong Kong, whereas CAT in both gill and hepatopancreas tissue showed most potential in mussels; (c) significant induction of antioxidant responses over day 0 (excluding GPx in both tissues, and GST in mussel hepatic tissue); (d) groups of contaminants do not consistently induce antioxidant responses and (e) organochlorines and PCBs correlated significantly with CAT and GST in clam hepatopancreas and with CAT in mussel gill and hepatic tissue. Multivariate statistical techniques indicated little relationship between the site patterns for antioxidant responses and the contaminant gradients identified in body burden analysis.  相似文献   

Okadaic acid, a causative toxin of diarrhetic shellfish poisoning, in green-lipped mussels Perna viridis from Hong Kong fish culture zones: Method development and monitoring     

Kylie C.Y. Mak  H. Yu  M.C. Choi  Xiaoyun Shen  Michael H.W. Lam  M. Martin  Rudolf S.S. Wu  Patsy S. Wong  Bruce J. Richardson  Paul K.S. Lam   《Marine pollution bulletin》2005,51(8-12):1010

Green-lipped mussels (Perna viridis) were collected from seven fish culture zones (FCZs) in Hong Kong and analyzed for okadaic acid (OA). A conventional HPLC method was modified by incorporating a proteinase K digestion step. Results suggest that a higher recovery (2.5 times higher) of OA was obtained from spiked samples after the addition of 1.08 mg proteinase K in comparison with samples incubated without the proteolytic enzyme. For the hepatopancreas (HP) of individual field-collected mussels, the additional digestion step can enhance OA extraction by 3.1 times. Spatial and temporal variations in OA concentrations in the mussels from various FCZs were investigated. The highest concentration of OA in mussel HP samples was 1164.9 ng/g HP wet wt. With respect to OA concentrations in whole mussel tissues from seven sites and four seasonal samplings, the concentrations were between 70.0 and 131.0 ng/g wet wt., which did not exceed the generally recognized international regulatory criteria (>200 ng/g) for OA.  相似文献   

Growth of a young, frequently active composite cone: Ngauruhoe volcano, New Zealand     

Barbara J. Hobden  Bruce F. Houghton  Ian A. Nairn 《Bulletin of Volcanology》2002,64(6):392-409

Ngauruhoe cone, in southern Taupo Volcanic Zone, New Zealand, has grown rapidly over the last 2,500 years in an alternation of effusive, strombolian, vulcanian, and sub-plinian eruptions of andesitic magma. At times growth has been 'staccato' in fashion as evidenced in the historical record. Each historical eruption typically lasted days to months, alternating with repose periods of years to decades. Major historic eruptions occurred in 1870 1949 1954-1955 and 1973-1975, encompassing wide variations in eruptive style over short timescales. The early period of cone building appears to have been dominated by a more continuous form of activity characterised by a series of numerous frequent explosive eruptions, with associated lava flows. The 2.2-km³ cone has grown in a piecemeal sectorial manner reflecting constant modification to the morphology of the summit, which has funnelled eruption products to specific sectors of the cone. Eruption rates can be calculated on several different timescales. Discharge rates averaged over individual eruptive pulses vary by two orders of magnitude (2.7-280 m³ s^-1), reflecting variations in high level magma ascent rates and processes such as degassing, which are, in turn, reflected in contrasting eruptive styles. Lower rates (e.g. 0.65 m³ s^-1) are obtained by averaging the discharge over an entire eruption lasting several months and may correspond to the ascent rate of magma batch(es) feeding the eruption. The long-term growth rate of Ngauruhoe is 0.9 km³ ky^-1. This is an average rate reflecting the long-term deep supply rate of magma to crustal reservoirs. By looking at eruption rates on these different timescales we are better able to constrain processes occurring at various depths within the plumbing system. There are few detailed studies of the growth patterns of young volcanic cones, but such data are essential in understanding the dynamics of andesitic systems. More than 60 lavas and pyroclastic units mapped on different sectors of Ngauruhoe cone have been correlated by flow chronology and their distinctive compositions into five groups. Although the cone has grown rapidly, Ngauruhoe shows little evidence for the existence of large crustal magma reservoirs and long-lived magma batches. Instead, abrupt and non-systematic changes in magma chemistry and isotopic composition between and within the five groups indicate that the volcano has an open-system, multi-process, multi-directional character and erupts small (<0.1 km³) and short-lived (10⁰-10³ years) magma batches with no simple time-composition relationships between successive batches.  相似文献   

The Sydney Hailstorm of April 14, 1999: Synoptic descriptionand numerical simulation     

Bruce W. Buckley  Lance M. Leslie  Yuqing Wang 《Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics》2001,76(3-4):167-182

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Effects of Climatic Change on a Water Dependent Regional Economy: A Study of the Texas Edwards Aquifer   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Chi-Chung Chen  Dhazn Gillig  Bruce A. McCarl 《Climatic change》2001,49(4):397-409

Global climate change portends shifts in water demand and availability which may damage or cause intersectoral water reallocation in water short regions. This study investigates effects of climatic change on regional water demand and supply as well as the economy in the San Antonio Texas Edwards Aquifer region. This is done using a regional model which portrays both hydrological and economic activities. The overall results indicate that changes in climatic conditions reduce water resource availability and increase water demand. Specifically, a regional welfare loss of $2.2–$6.8million per year may occur as a result of climatic change. Additionally, if springflows are to be maintained at the currently desired level to protect endangered species, pumping must be reduced by 9–20% at an additional costof $0.5 to $2 million per year.  相似文献   

Late Pleistocene and Holocene slip rate of the Northern Wadi Araba fault, Dead Sea Transform, Jordan     

Tina M. Niemi  Hongwei Zhang  Mohammad Atallah  J. Bruce J. Harrison 《Journal of Seismology》2001,5(3):449-474

The Wadi Araba Valley is a morphotectonic depression along part of theDead Sea Transform (DST) plate boundary that separates the Arabian plateon the east from the Sinai subplate on the west. The Wadi Araba fault(WAF) is the main strike-slip faults one of between the Gulf of Aqaba and the E-Wtrending Khunayzira (Amatzayahu) fault that bounds the southern end ofthe Dead Sea. Just south of the Dead Sea, the WAF cuts across severalgenerations of alluvial fans that formed on tributaries to the Wadi Dahalafter the regression of Late Pleistocene Lake Lisan ca. 15 ka. Geomorphicand stratigraphic evidence of active faulting, including left-laterally offsetstream channels and alluvial-fan surfaces, yielded fault slip-rate data for thenorthern segment of WAF. Typical cumulative displacements of 54 m,39 m, and 22.5 m of stream channels and alluvial-fan surfaces acrossthe fault were measured from detailed geologic and topographic mapping.The 54 m offset of the oldest alluvial-fan surface (Q _f1 ) occurredafter the final lowering of Lake Lisan (16–15 ka) and before 11 ka yieldinga slip-rate range of 3.4 mm/yr to 4.9 mm/yr. Based on radiocarbonages of charcoal and landsnail shell samples from the buried Q _f2 alluvial-fan deposits exposed in trenches excavated across the fault, the39 m and 22.5 m offsets occurred after 9 ka and 5.8 ka, respectively. These data yield a slip-rate range between 3.9 mm/yr and 6.0 mm/yr.The small variability in these slip-rate estimates for different time periodssuggests that the northern Wadi Araba fault has maintained a relativelyconstant slip rate in the past 15 ka. We calculate an average slip rate of 4.7± 1.3 mm/yr since 15 ka based on the three separate displacementsand age estimates. Five separate offsets of 3 m were measured from gullybends and the offset of small fault-scarp alluvial fans. These displacementdata suggest a coseismic slip of 3 m in the last earthquake, or acumulative slip of 3 m in the past few earthquakes. A maximum slip of3 m correspond to a Mw 7 earthquake that ruptures about 49 km offault length. Using an average slip rate of 4.7 ± 1.3 mm/yr togetherwith a 3-m slip-per-event suggests a maximum earthquake recurrence intervalof this fault segment of 500 to 885 years.  相似文献