中国关于气候变化归因和责任的研究进展与展望     

张轶鸥  丑洁明  董文杰 《干旱气象》2013,(1):174-181

首先对2000～2011年中国关于气候变化归因和责任研究的相关文献进行分类统计,归纳总结了中国最近十余年的研究进展,在此基础上,对于现阶段研究及存在的问题进行了初步讨论。提出我国在气候变化归因与责任领域研究的基本框架和大体趋势已经确立,"气候变化原因"研究,应在强化多方全面研究和改进研究工具的同时,注重人为原因的探究,将人为原因的探究作为今后研究的重点方向;气候变化责任的研究,应在坚持"共同但有区别责任"立场的前提下,寻求更有力的技术支持,特别是需要构建"全球有序应对气候变化"的研究体系,开展更为全面的地球系统科学模拟研究。  相似文献   

吉林省长白山地区新生代火山岩基本特征及成因模式探讨   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

丑述一  薛继广  刘浩  潘超 《吉林地质》2014,(3)

长白山火山岩区位于滨太平洋构造域西侧,东北大陆裂谷系的东部,北东向断裂较为发育,有敦密断裂、鸭绿江断裂、伊通—依兰断裂等超壳断裂,这些断裂为后期岩浆喷溢提供了通道,也基本控制了火山岩的展布方向。该区新生代以来的火山活动可分为甑峰山期、奶头山期、平顶村期、军舰山期、广坪期、白头山期和天文峰期7个期次,通过对该区的深部构造研究,结合板块运动理论综合分析,笔者将该区火山岩的形成分为了6个阶段,提出了长白山地区火山活动的成因模式。  相似文献   

甘肃省引洮工程泥石流地质灾害调查现状及防治对策     

丑永魁  张翔 《探矿工程》2018,45(5):77-80

引洮工程是甘肃省中部地区扶贫开发的重点项目之一, 是以洮河九甸峡水利枢纽工程为水源,重点解决甘肃省中部干旱地区缺水问题。该项目行政区划上涉及卓尼、临洮、渭源、定西、陇西和榆中等6县,工程涉及范围跨西秦岭山地、陇西黄土高原和马衔山—兴隆山山地3大地貌单元,主要地质灾害类型为崩塌、滑坡、泥石流、黄土湿陷等,地质环境条件复杂。本文通过大量的野外观察与现场调查,对评估区主要地质灾害之一泥石流进行了评估,结合供水工程主要为线性工程和泥石流分布特点,将其评估范围向渠道两侧适度扩展,最后提出了相应的灾害防治措施。  相似文献   

台湾海峡及其邻近海域鱼类生活史特征及其变化研究     

HU Wenji  YE Guanqiong  LU Zhenbin  DU Jianguo  CHEN Mingru  CHOU Loke Ming  YANG Shengyun 《海洋学报(英文版)》2015,34(2):45-54

世界范围内,海洋渔业资源广泛面临着过度捕捞的压力.鱼类的不同生活史特征可表征不同的生活史对策,其变化可揭示鱼类种群对渔业捕捞压力的响应.台湾海峡及其邻近海域的主要渔场30多年来面临着过度捕捞的压力,导致了鱼类群落结构发生改变.本研究分析了该海域51种主要经济鱼类的生态参数,系统研究了其生活史特征及其变化.采用主成分分析法可将51种鱼类分成5个不同的生活史对策组,分组结果表明超过60%的鱼类被归纳入第5组,即近r对策组,且多为中上层鱼类.在此基础上收集相关历史数据,对其中25种经济鱼类进行生活史变化分析,讨论不同鱼类种群对渔业开发的响应.分析结果表明,在长期的渔业开发活动下多数鱼类表现出小型化、低龄化、早熟和生长率加快等趋势.此外,本研究计算了每种鱼类的开发率以进一步研究渔业捕捞压力对鱼类种群的影响,发现其中4种底层和近底层鱼类的生活史特征变化显著,提示某些物种可能对捕捞压力更敏感.本研究可为渔业管理和保护提供重要的科学依据.  相似文献   

Carbon Reduction Policies: A Regional Comparison of Their Contributions to CO2 Abatement in Six Carbon Trading Pilot Schemes in China          下载免费PDF全文

XIU Jin-Feng  CHOU Jie-Ming  DONG Wen-Jie  YANG Zhi-Yong  DAI Ru-Feng 《大气和海洋科学快报》2015,8(4):233-237

The contributions of carbon reduction policies were evaluated and compared for six carbon trading pilot schemes in China, in four municipalities(Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin, and Chongqing) and two provinces(Guangdong and Hubei). The carbon emissions accounting method of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change was used to calculate the actual CO2 and the support vector machine model was used to predict CO2. Chinese carbon reduction policies abated CO2 in the six carbon trading pilot schemes after the comprehensive policies came into force. However, the contribution of policies to CO2 abatement varied among regions, and the effect of carbon reduction policy on municipality pilot schemes was greater than on provincial pilot schemes. The largest contribution of carbon reduction policy to CO2 abatement was 28.3%, for the pilot carbon trading scheme in Beijing, and the smallest contribution was 3.7%, for that in Hubei. It is crucial to consider “carbon leakage” and a carbon trading linking program in order to evaluate the effects of carbon reduction policies.  相似文献   

Applications of Optical Cells with Fused Silica Windows to the Studies of Gas Hydrates     

I-Ming CHOU 《《地质学报》英文版》2013,87(Z1):994-995

  相似文献   

Management of wildfires with a geographical information system     

YUE HONG CHOU 《International journal of geographical information science》2013,27(2):123-140

Abstract

Wildfires pose a constant threat to natural resources, endangered species, human property and even human lives. Effective management of wildfires requires a thorough understanding of the environmental and human related factors that are important to wildfires, as well as the complex spatial relationships among them. A geographical information system was used to analyse the data of the Idyllwild 7-5-minute quadrangle in southern California, U.S.A. A probability model which incorporated topography, vegetation, temperature, precipitation, proximity to buildings and proximity to transportation was constructed to generate the distribution of the probability of fire occurrence. Critical zones of danger from fire which need suppression were delineated. Two hypothetical spatial strategies of prescribed burning were evaluated in terms of their effectiveness in reducing the danger to the district from fire and producing a more desirable spatial pattern.  相似文献   

基于交通振动环境下建筑结构损伤机理及减振隔振的研究现状          下载免费PDF全文

丑亚玲  刘文高  乔雄  倪伟淋 《地震工程学报》2021,43(3):654-662,686

随着交通建设的发展,越来越多的公路要临近已有建筑物通过,而由于建设或重车通行引起的振动对周边建筑结构产生了很大的安全威胁,严重的甚至造成了建筑结构的损坏。论文通过对交通振动下建筑结构的振动控制标准和在振动中的损伤机理进行综述,系统总结了交通振动对建筑影响的方法,介绍了目前交通振动对建筑结构安全性影响的研究现状和方法,分析了减振隔振的发展现状,创新性的提出将疲劳寿命作为建筑结构振动容许值的参考依据。在总结分析现状的情况下提出目前存在的问题,给出了相关的意见和建议,可为今后的相关研究提供参考。  相似文献   

Uncertainty of the numerical solution of a nonlinear system’s long-term behavior and global convergence of the numerical pattern     

HU Shujuan  CHOU Jifan 《大气科学进展》2004,21(5):767-774

The computational uncertainty principle in nonlinear ordinary differential equations makes the numerical solution of the long-term behavior of nonlinear atmospheric equations have no meaning. The main reason is that, in the error analysis theory of present-day computational mathematics, the non-linear process between truncation error and rounding erroris treated as a linear operation. In this paper, based on the operator equations of large-scale atmospheric movement, the above limitation is overcome by using the notion of cell mapping. Through studying the global asymptotic characteristics of the numerical pattern of the large-scale atmospheric equations, the definitions of the global convergence and an appropriate discrete algorithm of the numerical pattern are put forward. Three determinant theorems about the global convergence of the numerical pattern are presented, which provide the theoretical basis for constructing the globally convergent numerical pattern. Further, it is pointed out that only a globally convergent numerical pattern can improve the veracity of climatic prediction.  相似文献   

短期气候预测的现状 问题与出路(二)   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

丑纪范 《沙漠与绿洲气象(新疆气象)》2003,26(2):1-4,11

从方法论上分析了短期气候预测的现状、问题与出路。着重指出：基础理论研究的欠缺又不甚得法是短期气候预测准确率提高缓慢的原因；应当将数值预报的提法从初值问题改为演变问题，进一步提为反问题；统计学方法与动力学方法要相互借鉴，取长补短，融合发展。  相似文献