Stochastic Modelling of the Impact of Flood Protection Measures Along the River Waal in the Netherlands     

Saskia Van Vuren  Huib J. De. Vriend  Sonja Ouwerkerk  Matthijs Kok 《Natural Hazards》2005,36(1-2):81-102

River flooding is a problem of international interest. In the past few years many countries suffered from severe floods. A large part of the Netherlands is below sea level and river levels. The Dutch flood defences along the river Rhine are designed for water levels with a probability of exceedance of 1/1250 per year. These water levels are computed with a hydrodynamic model using a deterministic bed level and a deterministic design discharge. Traditionally, the safety against flooding in the Netherlands is obtained by building and reinforcing dikes. Recently, a new policy was proposed to cope with increasing design discharges in the Rhine and Meuse rivers. This policy is known as the Room for the River (RfR) policy, in which a reduction of flood levels is achieved by measures creating space for the river, such as dike replacement, side channels and floodplain lowering. As compared with dike reinforcement, these measures may have a stronger impact on flow and sediment transport fields, probably leading to stronger morphological effects. As a result of the latter the flood conveyance capacity may decrease over time. An a priori judgement of safety against flooding on the basis of an increased conveyance capacity of the river can be quite misleading. Therefore, the determination of design water levels using a fixed-bed hydrodynamic model may not be justified and the use of a mobile-bed approach may be more appropriate. This problem is addressed in this paper, using a case study of the river Waal (one of the Rhine branches in the Netherlands). The morphological response of the river Waal to a flood protection measure (floodplain lowering in combination with summer levee removal) is analysed. The effect of this measure is subject to various sources of uncertainty. Monte Carlo simulations are applied to calculate the impact of uncertainties in the river discharge on the bed levels. The impact of the “uncertain” morphological response on design flood level predictions is analysed for three phenomena, viz. the impact of the spatial morphological variation over years, the impact of the seasonal morphological variation and the impact of the morphological variability around bifurcation points. The impact of seasonal morphological variations turns out to be negligible, but the other two phenomena appear to have each an appreciable impact (order of magnitude 0.05–0.1 m) on the computed design water levels. We have to note however, that other sources of uncertainty (e.g. uncertainty in hydraulic roughness predictor), which may be of influence, are not taken into consideration. In fact, the present investigation is limited to the sensitivity of the design water levels to uncertainties in the predicted bed level.  相似文献   

Ice-core pollen record of climatic changes in the central Andes during the last 400 yr     

Kam-biu Liu  Carl A. Reese 《Quaternary Research》2005,64(2):272-278

This paper presents a high-resolution ice-core pollen record from the Sajama Ice Cap, Bolivia, that spans the last 400 yr. The pollen record corroborates the oxygen isotopic and ice accumulation records from the Quelccaya Ice Cap and supports the scenario that the Little Ice Age (LIA) consisted of two distinct phases—a wet period from AD 1500 to 1700, and a dry period from AD 1700 to 1880. During the dry period xerophytic shrubs expanded to replace puna grasses on the Altiplano, as suggested by a dramatic drop in the Poaceae/Asteraceae (P/A) pollen ratio. The environment around Sajama was probably similar to the desert-like shrublands of the Southern Bolivian Highlands and western Andean slopes today. The striking similarity between the Sajama and Quelccaya proxy records suggests that climatic changes during the Little Ice Age occurred synchronously across the Altiplano.  相似文献   

Polymorphic phase transition in Superhydrous Phase B     

M. Koch-Müller  P. Dera  Y. Fei  H. Hellwig  Z. Liu  J. Van Orman  R. Wirth 《Physics and Chemistry of Minerals》2005,32(5-6):349-361

We synthesized superhydrous phase B (shy-B) at 22 GPa and two different temperatures: 1200°C (LT) and 1400°C (HT) using a multi-anvil apparatus. The samples were investigated by transmission electron microscopy (TEM), single crystal X-ray diffraction, Raman and IR spectroscopy. The IR spectra were collected on polycrystalline thin-films and single crystals using synchrotron radiation, as well as a conventional IR source at ambient conditions and in situ at various pressures (up to 15 GPa) and temperatures (down to −180°C). Our studies show that shy-B exists in two polymorphic forms. As expected from crystal chemistry, the LT polymorph crystallizes in a lower symmetry space group (Pnn2), whereas the HT polymorph assumes a higher symmetry space group (Pnnm). TEM shows that both modifications consist of nearly perfect crystals with almost no lattice defects or inclusions of additional phases. IR spectra taken on polycrystalline thin films exhibit just one symmetric OH band and 29 lattice modes for the HT polymorph in contrast to two intense but asymmetric OH stretching bands and at least 48 lattice modes for the LT sample. The IR spectra differ not only in the number of bands, but also in the response of the bands to changes in pressure. The pressure derivatives for the IR bands are higher for the HT polymorph indicating that the high symmetry form is more compressible than the low symmetry form. Polarized, low-temperature single-crystal IR spectra indicate that in the LT-polymorph extensive ordering occurs not only at the Mg sites but also at the hydrogen sites.  相似文献   

GPS monitoring of vertical ground motion in northern Ardenne–Eifel: five campaigns (1999–2003) of the HARD project     

A. Demoulin  J. Campbell  A. De. Wulf  A. Muls  R. Arnould  B. Görres  D. Fischer  T. Kötter  M. Brondeel  D. Van. Damme  J. M. Jacqmotte 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》2005,94(4):515-524

We present the HARD project of GPS monitoring of vertical ground motion in NE Ardenne and Eifel (western Europe). Its main purposes are to get a better insight into the present-day rates of vertical ground motion in intraplate settings and to identify the various causes of these motions. Since 1999, we have carried out yearly campaigns of simultaneous GPS measurements at 12 sites situated so as to sample the different tectonic subunits of the study area and especially to record potential displacements across the seismogenic Hockai fault zone. Five campaigns (1999–2003) have been processed currently. Key issues of the data processing with the Gamit software are discussed and first results are presented. Though temporally consistent in many cases, the obtained vertical motion rates are spatially highly variable. They are also much too high (several mm/year) to support a tectonic interpretation, and a long-term influence of groundwater level variations is proposed to account for the observed motions. This influence should be distinguished from seasonal variations and from inter-survey variations linked to the varying degree of soil and subsoil drying off during the successive spring surveys.  相似文献   

Modeling the impact of microbial activity on redox dynamics in porous media     

Martin Thullner  Philippe Van Cappellen  Pierre Regnier 《Geochimica et cosmochimica acta》2005,69(21):5005-5019

The present study investigates the interaction between microbial growth and activity and the redox dynamics in natural porous media. The impact the transport regime has on this interaction is also addressed. Expressions for microbial growth are incorporated into a geochemical reaction network linking redox reaction rates to the activity of the microorganisms. A flexible simulation environment, the Biogeochemical Reaction Network Simulator (BRNS) is used for this purpose. Two reactive transport applications relevant to fields of contaminant hydrology and early diagenesis are simulated with the BRNS. Model results are evaluated based on a comparison with comprehensive datasets on the biodegradation of lactate in a sand column experiment and on the distribution of redox-sensitive chemical species in marine sediments of the Skagerrak, Denmark. It is shown that, despite quite different transport regimes, the geomicrobiological model performs equally well in the reproduction of measured chemical species distribution for both applications. This result emphasizes the broad applicability of the proposed approach. Our simulations support that the competitive behavior between various microbial groups is a process controlling the development of redox stratified environments. Furthermore, it is also shown that the transport regime is a key controlling factor for the degree of spatial correlation between microbial biomass distributions and redox reaction rates. Although all our simulations yield a pronounced stratification of the redox processes in the system, the biomass distribution is related to the associated reaction rates only in case of the advection controlled column experiment. In the early diagenetic application, mixing due to bioturbation is the dominant transport process for particulate matter, hence leading to fairly homogeneous distribution of bacterial biomasses which are unrelated to the spatial distribution of redox reaction rates. This homogeneous biomass distribution combined with the 1G carbon degradation model approach might explain why the steady state concentration profiles in such systems can be reproduced by diagenetic models without explicit representation of microbial growth.  相似文献   

Landscape controls on long‐term runoff in subhumid heterogeneous Boreal Plains catchments          下载免费PDF全文

Kevin J. Devito  Kelly J. Hokanson  Paul Adrian Moore  Nicholas Kettridge  Axel E. Anderson  Laura Chasmer  Chris Hopkinson  Maxwell C. Lukenbach  Carl A. Mendoza  Julienne Morissette  Daniel L. Peters  Richard Michael Petrone  Uldis Silins  Brian Smerdon  James Michael Waddington 《水文研究》2017,31(15):2737-2751

We compared median runoff (R) and precipitation (P) relationships over 25 years from 20 mesoscale (50 to 5,000 km²) catchments on the Boreal Plains, Alberta, Canada, to understand controls on water sink and source dynamics in water‐limited, low‐relief northern environments. Long‐term catchment R and runoff efficiency (RP^?1) were low and varied spatially by over an order of magnitude (3 to 119 mm/year, 1 to 27%). Intercatchment differences were not associated with small variations in climate. The partitioning of P into evapotranspiration (ET) and R instead reflected the interplay between underlying glacial deposit texture, overlying soil‐vegetation land cover, and regional slope. Correlation and principal component analyses results show that peatland‐swamp wetlands were the major source areas of water. The lowest estimates of median annual catchment ET (321 to 395 mm) and greatest R (60 to 119 mm, 13 to 27% of P) were observed in low‐relief, peatland‐swamp dominated catchments, within both fine‐textured clay‐plain and coarse‐textured glacial deposits. In contrast, open‐water wetlands and deciduous‐mixedwood forest land covers acted as water sinks, and less catchment R was observed with increases in proportional coverage of these land covers. In catchments dominated by hummocky moraines, long‐term runoff was restricted to 10 mm/year, or 2% of P. This reflects the poor surface‐drainage networks and slightly greater regional slope of the fine‐textured glacial deposit, coupled with the large soil‐water and depression storage and higher actual ET of associated shallow open‐water marsh wetland and deciduous‐forest land covers. This intercatchment study enhances current conceptual frameworks for predicting water yield in the Boreal Plains based on the sink and source functions of glacial landforms and soil‐vegetation land covers. It offers the capability within this hydro‐geoclimatic region to design reclaimed catchments with desired hydrological functionality and associated tolerances to climate or land‐use changes and inform land management decisions based on effective catchment‐scale conceptual understanding.  相似文献   

Erratum to: Polymorphic phase transition in Superhydrous Phase B     

M. Koch-Müller  P. Dera  Y. Fei  H. Hellwig  Z. Liu  J. Van Orman  R. Wirth 《Physics and Chemistry of Minerals》2014,41(9):725-725

  相似文献   

Unique achondrite Northwest Africa 11042: Exploring the melting and breakup of the L chondrite parent body     

Zoltn Vci  Carl B. Agee  Munir Humayun  Karen Ziegler  Yemane Asmerom  Victor Polyak  Henner Busemann  Daniela Krietsch  Matthew Heizler  Matthew E. Sanborn  Qing‐Zhu Yin 《Meteoritics & planetary science》2020,55(3):622-648

Northwest Africa (NWA) 11042 is a heavily shocked achondrite with medium‐grained cumulate textures. Its olivine and pyroxene compositions, oxygen isotopic composition, and chromium isotopic composition are consistent with L chondrites. Sm‐Nd dating of its primary phases shows a crystallization age of 4100 ± 160 Ma. Ar‐Ar dating of its shocked mineral maskelynite reveals an age of 484.0 ± 1.5 Ma. This age coincides roughly with the breakup event of the L chondrite parent body evident in the shock ages of many L chondrites and the terrestrial record of fossil L chondritic chromite. NWA 11042 shows large depletions in siderophile elements (<0.01×CI) suggestive of a complex igneous history involving extraction of a Fe‐Ni‐S liquid on the L chondrite parent body. Due to its relatively young crystallization age, the heat source for such an igneous process is most likely impact. Because its mineralogy, petrology, and O isotopes are similar to the ungrouped achondrite NWA 4284 (this work), the two meteorites are likely paired and derived from the same parent body.  相似文献   

A 2000‐year lipid biomarker record preserved in a stalagmite from north‐west Scotland     

Alison J. Blyth  Andy Baker  Louise E. Thomas  Peter Van Calsteren 《第四纪科学杂志》2011,26(3):326-334

Previous studies on lipid biomarkers preserved in Chinese stalagmites have indicated that ratios of low‐molecular‐weight (LMW) to high‐molecular‐weight (HMW) n‐alkanes, n‐alkan‐2‐ones, n‐alkanols and n‐alkanoic acids can be used as an index of vegetation versus microbial organic matter input to the system and, by extension, a marker of climatic changes, with increases in the proportion of LMW compounds coinciding with colder periods. Here we test whether this hypothesis is equally applicable to a different geographical region (north‐west Scotland), by examining a stalagmite record of the past 200 years, and a wider range of lipid markers. We also test the applicability of other lipid proxies in this context, including the use of n‐alkane ratios, to interpret vegetation changes, and unsaturated alkanoic acid ratios as climatic indicators. The results show that lipid proxies preserved in stalagmites, and especially those related to vegetation, are potentially extremely useful in palaeoenvironmental research. Of particular value is the use of C₂₇/C₃₁ n‐alkane ratios as a proxy for vegetation change, clearly indicating variations between herbaceous and arboreal cover. This proxy has now been successfully applied to samples from diverse environments, and can be considered sufficiently robust to be of use in analysing future stalagmite records. It will be of particular value in areas where reliable pollen records are not available, as is often the case with deeper cave deposits. However, the division between LMW and HMW aliphatic compounds is not a clear‐cut case of microbial versus plant activity, with the changes in LMW compounds relating more closely to those in their HMW analogues than in specific bacterial biomarkers. The use of unsaturated alkanoic acid ratios here gives conflicting results, with the observed variation through time depending on the isomer measured. The discrepancies between the findings of this study and previous work are likely to be due to the varying controls on the lipids (original organic matter input, and compound degradation), which in turn will be affected by whether the main climatic limiting factor on the soil is temperature or precipitation. This suggests that lipid proxies preserved in stalagmites must be interpreted with care, particularly in the case of bacterial compounds which may be derived from within the cave or from the soil. However, many of these issues can be resolved by the use of multi‐proxy studies. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Geological and geophysical studies of the Agoudal impact structure (Central High Atlas,Morocco): New evidence for crater size and age     

Houda El Kerni  Hasnaa Chennaoui Aoudjehane  David Baratoux  Mohammed Aoudjehane  Andr Charrire  Hassan Ibouh  Pierre Rochette  Yoann Quesnel  Minoru Uehara  Thomas Kenkmann  Gerwin Wulf  Michael Poelchau  Van Binh Nguyen  Maria Aboulahris  Samira Makhoukhi  Georges Aumaître  Didier Bourls  Karim Keddadouche 《Meteoritics & planetary science》2019,54(10):2483-2509

Since the discovery of shatter cones (SCs) near the village of Agoudal (Morocco, Central High Atlas Mountains) in 2013, the absence of one or several associated circular structures led to speculation about the age of the impact event, the number, and the size of the impact crater or craters. Additional constraints on the crater size, age, and erosion rates are obtained here from geological, structural, and geophysical mapping and from cosmogenic nuclide data. Our geological maps of the Agoudal impact site at the scales of 1:30,000 (6 km²) and 1:15,000 (2.25 km²) include all known occurrences of SCs in target rocks, breccias, and vertical to overturned strata. Considering that strata surrounding the impact site are subhorizontal, we argue that disturbed strata are related to the impact event. Three types of breccias have been observed. Two of them (br1‐2 and br2) could be produced by erosion–sedimentation–consolidation processes, with no evidence for impact breccias, while breccia (br1) might be impact related. The most probable center of the structure is estimated at 31°59′13.73?N, 5°30′55.14?W using the concentric deviation method applied to the orientation of strata over the disturbed area. Despite the absence of a morphological expression, the ground magnetic and electromagnetic surveys reveal anomalies spatially associated with disturbed strata and SC occurrences. The geophysical data, the structural observations, and the area of occurrence of SCs in target rocks are all consistent with an original size of 1.4–4.2 km in diameter. Cosmogenic nuclide data (³⁶Cl) constrain the local erosion rates between 220 ± 22 m Ma^?1 and 430 ± 43 m Ma^?1. These erosion rates may remove the topographic expression of such a crater and its ejecta in a time period of about 0.3–1.9 Ma. This age is older than the Agoudal iron meteorite age (105 ± 40 kyr). This new age constraint excludes the possibility of a genetic relationship between the Agoudal iron meteorite fall and the formation of the Agoudal impact site. A chronolgy chart including the Atlas orogeny, the alternation of sedimentation and erosion periods, and the meteoritic impacts is presented based on all obtained and combined data.  相似文献