Seismic hazard assessment of northern Pakistan     

Muhammad Waseem  Carlo Giovanni Lai  Enrico Spacone 《Natural Hazards》2018,90(2):563-600

This article presents probabilistic seismic hazard analyses of northern Pakistan region carried out to produce macro-seismic hazard maps for the region that define new regional ground motion design parameters for 95-, 475-, 975- and 2475-year return period earthquakes as regional contour maps and horizontal uniform hazard at important cities. The Cornell–McGuire approach (Cornell in Bull Seismol Soc Am 58(05):1583–1606, 1968; McGuire in FORTRAN computer program for seismic risk analysis. US Geological Survey, Open file Report, 76-6768, 1976) is used to carry out the analyses at 0.1° rectangular grid. The seismotectonic model of the region used in analysis consists of shallow and deep area zones differentiated based on the focal depths of the earthquakes. Earthquake catalogue compiled and used in the analysis is a composite catalogue composed of 19,373 events. Ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) used are calibrated using goodness-of-fitness measures and visual inspection with local strong motion data. Epistemic uncertainty in the GMPEs is taken into account through the logic tree approach. Comparison of ground motions due to deep earthquakes is made for the first time for the region. The comparison between ground motion due to shallow and deep earthquakes indicates that the seismic hazard would be underestimated if the deep earthquakes are excluded. Ground motion values obtained in this study considering all the earthquakes suggest ground motions are dominant towards the north east of the region. The proposed study indicates that the ground motion hazard values suggested by the current Building Code of Pakistan underestimate the seismic hazard. Final results of this study are in close agreement with the recent studies on the region.  相似文献   

Water-table and discharge changes associated with the 2016–2017 seismic sequence in central Italy: hydrogeological data and a conceptual model for fractured carbonate aquifers     

Petitta  Marco  Mastrorillo  Lucia  Preziosi  Elisabetta  Banzato  Francesca  Barberio  Marino Domenico  Billi  Andrea  Cambi  Costanza  De Luca  Gaetano  Di Carlo  Giuseppe  Di Curzio  Diego  Di Salvo  Cristina  Nanni  Torquato  Palpacelli  Stefano  Rusi  Sergio  Saroli  Michele  Tallini  Marco  Tazioli  Alberto  Valigi  Daniela  Vivalda  Paola  Doglioni  Carlo 《Hydrogeology Journal》2018,26(4):1009-1026

A seismic sequence in central Italy from August 2016 to January 2017 affected groundwater dynamics in fractured carbonate aquifers. Changes in spring discharge, water-table position, and streamflow were recorded for several months following nine Mw 5.0–6.5 seismic events. Data from 22 measurement sites, located within 100 km of the epicentral zones, were analyzed. The intensity of the induced changes were correlated with seismic magnitude and distance to epicenters. The additional post-seismic discharge from rivers and springs was found to be higher than 9 m³/s, totaling more than 0.1 km³ of groundwater release over 6 months. This huge and unexpected contribution increased streamflow in narrow mountainous valleys to previously unmeasured peak values. Analogously to the L’Aquila 2009 post-earthquake phenomenon, these hydrogeological changes might reflect an increase of bulk hydraulic conductivity at the aquifer scale, which would increase hydraulic heads in the discharge zones and lower them in some recharge areas. The observed changes may also be partly due to other mechanisms, such as shaking and/or squeezing effects related to intense subsidence in the core of the affected area, where effects had maximum extent, or breaching of hydraulic barriers.

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Aquatic macrophyte diversity assessment: Validation of a new sampling method for circular-shaped lakes     

Mattia M. Azzella  Carlo Ricotta  Carlo Blasi 《Limnologica》2013,43(6):492-499

We propose and validate a new sampling method to assess the presence, abundance and distribution of macrophytes in circular-shaped lakes according to the requirements of the Water Framework Directive (WFD2000/60/EC). The results of the macrophyte survey, and in particular of macrophyte diversity, obtained using this method are also discussed.The sampling is based on randomly selected transects homogeneously distributed around the perimeter of the lake. The number of transects is proportional to the lake's size. The method was validated on six Italian volcanic lakes using computational resampling procedures on a total of 126 transects.Using resampling procedures, we show that the proposed approach identifies more than 75% of the overall species richness through a moderate sampling effort. According to our results, Charophytes dominate aquatic vegetation in Italian volcanic lakes. Species diversity is highest at shallow depths, whereas the most abundant species, such as Chara polyacantha, are located at an intermediate depth between the shoreline and the maximum growing depth.  相似文献   

Seismic input at the archaeological site of Kancheepuram in Southern India     

Mirko Corigliano  Carlo G. Lai  Arun Menon  Teraphan Ornthammarath 《Natural Hazards》2012,63(2):845-866

A probabilistic seismic hazard assessment at Kancheepuram in Southern India was carried out with the scope of defining the seismic input for the vulnerability assessment of historical and monumental structures at the site, in terms of horizontal Uniform Hazard Spectra and a suite of spectrum-compatible natural accelerograms to perform time-history analysis. The standard Cornell?CMcGuire and a zone-free approach have been used for hazard computations after the compilation of a composite earthquake catalogue for Kancheepuram. Epistemic uncertainty in the seismic hazard was addressed within a logic-tree framework. Deaggregation of the seismic hazard for the peak ground acceleration shows low seismicity at Kancheepuram controlled by weak-to-moderate earthquakes with sources located at short distances from the archaeological site. Suites of natural accelerograms recorded on rock have been selected by imposing a custom-defined compatibility criterion with the probabilistic spectra. The site of Kancheepuram is characterized by a seismicity controlled by weak-to-moderate earthquakes with sources at short distances from the site, the PGA expected for 475- and 2,475-year return period are, respectively, 0.075 and 0.132?g. The Indian code-defined spectra (DBE and MCE) tend to underestimate spectral ordinates at low periods. On the other hand, the PGA are comparable and the spectral ordinates for longer periods from the probabilistic study are significantly lower.  相似文献   

The origin of Lake Cheko and the 1908 Tunguska Event recorded by forest trees   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Luca Gasperini  Carlo Stanghellini  Romano Serra 《地学学报》2014,26(6):440-447

Several lines of evidence indicate that Cheko, a small lake close to the epicentre of the 1908 Tunguska Event (TE), fills a crater left behind by a fragment of the Tunguska Cosmic Body that impacted the ground downrange of the main explosion. It is thought that over 80 million trees were flattened or burnt as a consequence of the TE. However, a small number of trees in the devastated area survived the explosion and recorded in their growth‐ring patterns the environmental changes that followed this event. Some of those trees were found around Lake Cheko, ~10 km NW of the inferred TE epicentre. We analysed new data from the floor of Lake Cheko, including seismic‐reflection profiles, side‐scan sonar and video images, as well as dendrochronological evidence in tree samples collected along the shores, to test the hypothesis of a 1908 formation of the lake.  相似文献   

Measurement of field-saturated hydraulic conductivity on fractured rock outcrops near Altamura (Southern Italy) with an adjustable large ring infiltrometer   总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0  

Maria Clementina Caputo  Lorenzo De Carlo  Costantino Masciopinto  John Robert Nimmo 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2010,60(3):583-590

Up to now, field studies set up to measure field-saturated hydraulic conductivity to evaluate contamination risks, have employed small cylinders that may not be representative of the scale of measurements in heterogeneous media. In this study, a large adjustable ring infiltrometer was designed to be installed on-site directly on rock to measure its field-saturated hydraulic conductivity. The proposed device is inexpensive and simple to implement, yet also very versatile, due to its large adjustable diameter that can be fixed on-site. It thus allows an improved representation of the natural system’s heterogeneity, while also taking into consideration irregularities in the soil/rock surface. The new apparatus was tested on an outcrop of karstic fractured limestone overlying the deep Murge aquifer in the South of Italy, which has recently been affected by untreated sludge disposal, derived from municipal and industrial wastewater treatment plants. The quasi-steady vertical flow into the unsaturated fractures was investigated by measuring water levels during infiltrometer tests. Simultaneously, subsurface electrical resistivity measurements were used to visualize the infiltration of water in the subsoil, due to unsaturated water flow in the fractures. The proposed experimental apparatus works well on rock outcrops, and allows the repetition of infiltration tests at many locations in order to reduce model uncertainties in heterogeneous media.  相似文献