Updating the Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Values of Northern Algeria with the 21 May 2003 <Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis> 6.8 Algiers Earthquake Included     

José A. Peláez  M. Hamdache  Carlos López Casado 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2005,162(11):2163-2177

The occurrence of the Algiers earthquake (M 6.8) of May 21, 2003, has motivated the necessity to reassess the probabilistic seismic hazard of northern Algeria. The fact that this destructive earthquake took place in an area where there was no evidence of previous significant earthquakes, neither instrumental nor historical, strongly encourages us to review the seismic hazard map of this region. Recently, the probabilistic seismic hazard of northern Algeria was computed using the spatially smoothed seismicity methodology. The catalog used in the previous computation was updated for this review, and not only includes information until June 2003, but also considers a recent re-evaluation of several historical earthquakes. In this paper, the same methodology and seismicity models are utilized in an effort to compare this methodology against an improved and updated seismic catalog. The largest mean peak ground acceleration (PGA) values are obtained in northernmost Algeria, specifically in the central area of the Tell Atlas. These values are of the order of 0.48 g for a return period of 475 years. In the City of Algiers, the capital of Algeria, and approximately 50 km from the reported epicenter of this latest destructive earthquake, a new mean PGA value of 0.23 g is obtained for the same return period. This value is 0.07 g greater than that obtained in the previous computation. In general, we receive greater seismic hazard results in the surrounding area of Algiers, especially to the southwest. The main reason is not this recent earthquake by itself, but the significant increase in the m_max magnitude in the seismic source where the city and the epicenter are included.  相似文献   

The Uncertain Value of Perfect ENSO Phase Forecasts: Stochastic Agricultural Prices and Intra-Phase Climatic Variations     

David Letson  Guillermo P. Podestá  Carlos D. Messina  R. Andrés Ferreyra 《Climatic change》2005,69(2-3):163-196

Climate and crop yield variability associated with El Niño—Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are now predictable within limits. This predictability suggests a potential to tailor agricultural management to mitigate impacts of adverse conditions and to take advantage of favorable conditions. However, improved climate predictions may benefit society only with parallel advances in our ability to use this knowledge. We show that the value that will accrue to any given actor from an ENSO phase forecast should be viewed not as a known number but instead as a random draw from a distribution, even when the forecast is always correct. Forecast value depends on the highly variable contexts in which forecasts are used. Randomness in forecast value has significant implications for choices made by forecasters, forecast users and policy makers. To show randomness, we estimate potential economic values of ENSO forecasts for agricultural producers based on two realistic assumptions: the crop prices farmers receive are uncertain; and within an ENSO phase, the actual climate is variable in ways that affect profits. The use of synthetic weather and crop price series, with crop simulation models, helps show the range and likelihood of climate forecast value.  相似文献   

A Pulsed Laser Photolysis-Resonance Fluorescence Kinetic Study of the Atmospheric Cl Atom-Initiated Oxidation of Propene and a Series of 3-Halopropenes at Room Temperature     

José Albaladejo  Alberto Notario  Carlos A. Cuevas  Bernabé Ballesteros  Ernesto Martínez 《Journal of Atmospheric Chemistry》2003,45(1):35-50

Absolute rate coefficient measurements have been carried out for the reactions of Cl atoms with propene and a series of 3-halopropenes, at room temperature (298 ± 2) K using a newly constructed laser photolysis-resonance fluorescence (PLP-RF) system. The rate coefficients obtained (in units of cm³ molecule^–1 s^–1) are: propene (1.40± 0.24) ×10^–10, 3-fluoropropene (4.92 ± 0.42) ×10^–11, 3-chloropropene (7.47 ± 1.50) × 10^–11, 3-bromopropene (1.23± 0.14) ×10^–10 and 3-iodopropene (1.29± 0.15) ×10^–10. In order to test this new system, the reactions of Cl atoms with acetone and isoprene have also been studied and compared with data previously reported. The rate coefficients determined at room temperature for these last two reactions are (2.93 ± 0.20) ×10^–12 cm³ molecule^–1 s^{– 1} and (3.64± 0.20)×10^–10 cm³ molecule^–1 s^–1, respectively. The measured values were independent of pressure over the range 20–200 Torr. The influence of the different halogen atoms substituents on the reactivity of these alkenes with Cl atoms as well as the atmospheric implications of these measurements are studied and discussed for the first time in this work and compared with the reactivity with NO₃ and OH radicals.  相似文献   

Seismic Vulnerability of Historical Constructions: A Contribution   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Carlos Sousa Oliveira 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2003,1(1):37-82

Earthquakes are known to be natural hazards that have affected tremendously historical constructions. Unfortunately, as far as earthquake impacts are concerned, there are no world statistics to compare the suffering of populations or of the building stock and their evolution in time, with the damage inflicted to the stock of historical constructions. Lately, a great effort has been placed on engineering developments: (i) to better understand the seismic behaviour of historical construction and (ii) to assess the benefits of different techniques for reinforcing these structures. However, a great deal of discussion is still going on the type of reinforcement that should be applied, how effective it is and how much it costs. Research is needed for helping in these decisions, by providing a more precise framework in this field. The aim of this review is to make an overall insight on some of the available methods for assessing seismic vulnerability of historical constructions and on how to use them in the case of occurrence of an earthquake. Given this occurrence, the objective is to minimize the effects of aftershocks, avoid hurried demolition made under extreme pressure and help shore-up parts in risk of falling. The final aim is also to help in the definition of strategies for the repair of the damaged patrimony, or as a measure to prevent damage in future earthquakes for the most vulnerable cases. The paper is illustrated with the presentation of several examples published in the literature where the author participated. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.  相似文献   

Catastrophic floods as a possible cause of organic matter accumulation giving rise to coal, Paraná Basin, Brazil     

Romana Begossi  Jorge Carlos Della Fvera 《International Journal of Coal Geology》2002,52(1-4)

Gondwana coals of the Rio Bonito Formation (Paraná Basin) in Southern Brazil have generally large ash yields, so they could be better called coaly siltstones than coal. In addition, hummocky cross stratification (HCS) was found in several coal beds of the Rio Bonito Formation throughout the basin. In this formation, the frequent and close relationship between facies involving rocks generated by subaqueous gravity flows (diamictites) and coal itself provides an excellent depositional model based on resedimentary processes acting during deposition, as well as a stratigraphic rearrangement of the present units.In the State of Rio Grande do Sul (southern part of Paraná Basin), coals are actually prodelta deposits related to delta-front diamictite and conglomeratic sandstone with sigmoidal bedding. Coal-forming organic sediments would come from trees plucked by the floods, as indicated by the wood logs floating in the diamictite, and reworking of previous peat accumulations. Every coal layer is covered generally by paleosoil siltstones, which represent colonization at the top of the catastrophic flood deposit, ending a sedimentary cycle.In case of Brazilian coal settings, several authors recognized deltas (fan deltas or braid deltas). Here is particularly considered the general environment as a salted interior sea (lago mare, Hsü et al. sense).The present study will refer to three important lithostratigraphic units in the Carboniferous–Early Triassic cycle: the Itararé Group, the Rio Bonito Formation, and the Palermo Formation.Although the preferential mode of occurrence of HCS in shallow marine environments indicates a genesis attributed to storm action, other causes, such as catastrophic flooding, have been advanced. Mutti et al. [Mem. Sci. Geol. 48 (1996) 233] described flood-dominated deltaic systems with thick conglomerate, sandstone, and pelitic deposits, derived from small- to medium-scale fluvial systems and mountain-bordered drainage basins adjacent to the sea. In such settings, seaward sediment flow can increase dramatically when weather conditions can supply water in such amounts to produce catastrophic floods. Thick and laterally extensive sandstone lobes with HCS are the fundamental depositional elements of fan deltas and other river-dominated delta systems.Diamictites and coal together could be a result from Jökullhlaups—an Icelandic term for glacial outburst flood—in case of catastrophic floods coming from a melting mountain glacier, similar to the Columbia River Valley Scablands (15,000 BP) and in modern Iceland examples.  相似文献   

Evidence of direct particle trapping by a tropical seagrass meadow     

Nona S. R. Agawin  Carlos M. Duarte 《Estuaries and Coasts》2002,25(6):1205-1209

The capacity of seagrass canopies to directly retain sestonic particles was tested by quantifying the rate at which suspended fluorescent tracer particles were retained within a tropical Philippine seagrass meadow and by examining whether the test particles lost from the water column were later bound to seagrass leaves or inside epibionts. The particle loss rates in the presence of seagrass canopies were up to 4 times higher than those in unvegetated and plankton controls. The seagrass canopies trapped particles with a maximum rate of 0.73 (±0.24) h^?1. As much as 5% of the particles trapped by the seagrass leaves were physically adhered to the leaf surfaces following rinsing. Particles were also observed to be ingested by protozoa (ciliates and amoeba-like organisms), residing on the surface of the leaves, and may be the dominant particle trapping mechanism by seagrass leaves. These processes should provide an efficient mechanism for the transfer of planktonic production to the benthos, adding to the high organic carbon input maintained by the high production of the seagrass themselves.  相似文献   

Advances in discrete element modelling of underground excavations   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Carlos Labra  Jerzy Rojek  Eugenio Oñate  Francisco Zarate 《Acta Geotechnica》2008,3(4):317-322

The paper presents advances in the discrete element modelling of underground excavation processes extending modelling possibilities as well as increasing computational efficiency. Efficient numerical models have been obtained using techniques of parallel computing and coupling the discrete element method with finite element method. The discrete element algorithm has been applied to simulation of different excavation processes, using different tools, TBMs and roadheaders. Numerical examples of tunnelling process are included in the paper, showing results in the form of rock failure, damage in the material, cutting forces and tool wear. Efficiency of the code for solving large scale geomechanical problems is also shown.  相似文献   

The ratio between chrysophycean cysts and diatoms in temperate,mountain lakes: some recommendations for its use in paleolimnology   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Carlos A. Rivera-Rondón  Jordi Catalan 《Journal of Paleolimnology》2017,57(3):273-285

The ratio between chrysophycean cysts and diatom valves (CD ratio) in lake sediments has been suggested as a useful indicator of changing trophic state conditions in oligotrophic lakes. Other environmental factors, however, may influence the CD ratio because chrysophycean cysts usually reflect conditions in the planktonic environment and diatoms reflect benthic conditions. We investigated the CD ratio in 76 mountain lakes in the Pyrenees to determine the environmental drivers that influence the ratio and assess its value for paleoenvironmental inference. The lakes surveyed included a broad range with respect to bedrock type, altitude and surface area, characteristics that cover much of the variability that can be found in cold, oligotrophic mountain lakes. Lake depth and Ca²⁺ concentration explain most of the variation in the CD ratio. Trophic state factors (e.g. total phosphorus, TP) play a secondary role. As a predictor, CD ratio performs primarily as a lake depth indicator. The predictive models can be improved if trophic state (i.e. TP) and chemical conditions (Ca²⁺) are known or can be estimated independently. Use of the CD ratio for inferring Ca²⁺ oscillations only makes sense in lakes with Ca²⁺ <200 µeq/L or in those that oscillate below and above this threshold through time. Other interpretations of the CD ratio (e.g. lake trophic state changes, ice-cover duration) make sense if complementary paleolimnological evidence indicates that neither water depth nor Ca²⁺ concentration changed significantly. Indeed, paleolimnological interpretation of the CD ratio requires considering the particular characteristics of the lake and may vary depending on the temporal scale considered. This study provides some guidelines for evaluating critically the use of the CD ratio.  相似文献   

Geomorphological evolution of the Tilcara alluvial fan (Jujuy Province, NW Argentina): Tectonic implications and palaeoenvironmental considerations     

Carlos Sancho  Jos Luis Pea  Felipe Rivelli  Ed Rhodes  Arsenio Muoz 《Journal of South American Earth Sciences》2008,26(1):68-77

The development and evolution of the Tilcara alluvial fan, in the Quebrada de Humahuaca (Andean Eastern Cordillera, NW Argentina), has been analysed by using geomorphological mapping techniques, sedimentological characterisation of the deposits and OSL chronological methods. It is a complex segmented alluvial fan made up of five evolutionary stages (units Qf1, Qf2, Qf3, Qf4 and Qf5) developed under arid climatic environments as well as compressive tectonic conditions. Segmentation processes, including aggradation/entrenchment cycles and changes in the location of the depositional lobe, are mainly controlled by climatic and/or tectonic changes as well as channel piracy processes in the drainage system. Alluvial fan deposits include debris flows, sheet flows and braided channel facies associated with high water discharge events in an arid environment. The best mean OSL age estimated for stage Qf2 is 84.5 ± 7 ka BP. In addition, a thrust fault affecting these deposits has been recognized and, as a consequence, the compressive tectonics must date from the Upper Pleistocene in this area of the Andean Eastern Cordillera.  相似文献   

Neoarchean and Paleoproterozoic granitoids marginal to the Jeceaba-Bom Sucesso lineament (SE border of the southern São Francisco craton): Genesis and tectonic evolution     

Jos Carlos Sales Campos  Maurício Antnio Carneiro 《Journal of South American Earth Sciences》2008,26(4):463-484

The sialic crust of the southern São Francisco craton along the Jeceaba-Bom Sucesso lineament, central-southern part of Minas Gerais (Brazil), encompasses, among other rock types, Neoarchean and Paleoproterozoic granitoids. These granitoids, according to their petrographic, lithogeochemical and geochronologic characteristics, were grouped into two Neoarchean suites (Samambaia-Bom Sucesso and Salto Paraopeba-Babilônia) and three Paleoproterozoic suites (Cassiterita-Tabuões, Ritápolis and São Tiago). Varied processes and tectonic environments were involved in the genesis of these suites. In particular, the lithogeochemistry of the (Archean and Paleoproterozoic) TTG-type granitoids indicates an origin by partial melting of hydrated basaltic crust in a subduction environment. In the Neoarchean, between 2780 and 2703 Ma, a dominant TTG granitoid genesis related to an active continental margin was followed by another granite genesis related to crustal anatexis processes at 2612–2550 Ma. In the Paleoproterozoic, the generation of TTG and granites s.s. occurred at three distinct times: 2162, 2127 and 1887 Ma. This fact, plus the rock-type diversity produced by this granite genesis, indicates that the continental margin of the southern portion of the São Francisco craton was affected by more than one consumption episode of oceanic crust, involving different island arc segments, and the late Neoarchean consolidate continent. A Paleoproterozoic tectonic evolution in three stages is proposed in this work.  相似文献