Estimating the potential predictability of Australian surface maximum and minimum temperature   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Simon Grainger  Carsten S. Frederiksen  Xiaogu Zheng 《Climate Dynamics》2009,32(4):443-455

A study is made of the potential predictability of seasonal means in Australian surface maximum and minimum temperature using monthly data from December 1950 to November 2000. Because the usual assumption of stationarity cannot be applied to the observations at all stations and for all seasons, a modification to an existing methodology is proposed. Here, we show that, to a first order, monthly mean variances within a season can be modeled by a linear relationship, and inter-monthly correlations can be assumed to be stationary. The intraseasonal component of variability can then be estimated using monthly data. Removing the intraseasonal variance from the total interannual variance allows an estimate of the potential predictability to be made. Surface maximum and minimum temperature has high potential predictability over most of northern Australia in the four main seasons. However, there is high potential predictability only in some of the four seasons for the centre and south of Australia. Surface minimum temperature is generally more potentially predictable than surface maximum temperature. The spatial and temporal patterns of potential predictability are generally consistent with published patterns of hindcast skill from a statistical forecast scheme. A comparison between the intraseasonal variance of Australian surface maximum and minimum temperature estimated using the stationary variance assumption and the linear assumptions showed qualitatively and quantitatively similar patterns of distribution.  相似文献   

Comparison of Phytoscreening and Direct‐Push‐Based Site Investigation at a Rural Megasite Contaminated with Chlorinated Ethenes          下载免费PDF全文

Arno Rein  Olaf Holm  Stefan Trapp  Steffen Popp‐Hofmann  Martin Bittens  Carsten Leven  Peter Dietrich 《Ground Water Monitoring & Remediation》2015,35(4):45-56

The reliable characterization of subsurface contamination of spatially extended contaminated sites is a challenging task, especially with an unknown history of land use. Conventional technologies often fail due to temporal and financial constraints and thus hinder the redevelopment of abandoned areas in particular. Here we compare two site screening techniques that can be applied quickly at relatively low cost, namely Direct Push (DP)‐based groundwater sampling and tree core sampling. The effectiveness of both methods is compared for a rural megasite contaminated with chlorinated hydrocarbons. Unexpected pollution hot spots could be identified using both of these methods, while tree coring even enabled the delineation of the contaminant plume flowing into an adjacent wetland inaccessible for DP units. Both methods showed a good agreement in revealing the spatial pattern of the contamination. The correlation between groundwater concentrations and equivalent concentrations in wood was linear and highly significant for trichloroethene. Correlation was less obvious for its metabolite cis‐dichloroethene, but still significant. As outcome of our study we recommend tree coring and for initial screening in combination with a DP sampling to retrieve quantitative data on groundwater pollutants in order to assess the contamination situation of a non‐ or only partly investigated site. The subsequent placement of monitoring wells for long‐term monitoring of contamination levels is recommended. A combination of methods would achieve more relevant information at comparable or possibly even lower efforts in comparison to a conventional site investigation.  相似文献   

The great sulfur depletion of Earth’s mantle is not a signature of mantle–core equilibration     

Chris?BallhausEmail author  Raúl?O.?C.?Fonseca  Carsten?Münker  Arno?Rohrbach  Thorsten?Nagel  Iris?M.?Speelmanns  Hassan?M.?Helmy  Aurelia?Zirner  Antje?K.?Vogel  Alexander?Heuser 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》2017,172(8):68

The extreme depletion of the Earth’s mantle in sulfur is commonly seen as a signature of metal segregation from Earth’s mantle to Earth’s core. However, in addition to S, the mantle contains other elements as volatile as S that are hardly depleted relative to the lithophile volatility trend although they are potentially as siderophile as sulfur. We report experiments in metal-sulfide–silicate systems to show that the CI normalized abundances of S, Pb, and Sn in Earth’s mantle cannot be reproduced by element partitioning in Fe ± S–silicate systems, neither at low nor at high pressure. Much of the volatile inventory of the Earth’s mantle must have been added late in the accretion history, when metal melt segregation to the core had become largely inactive. The great depletion in S is attributed to the selective segregation of a late sulfide matte from an oxidized and largely crystalline mantle. Apparently, the volatile abundances of Earth’s mantle are not in redox equilibrium with Earth’s core.  相似文献   

Exposing metal and silicate charges to electrical discharges: Did chondrules form by nebular lightning?     

Carsten Güttler  Torsten Poppe 《Icarus》2008,195(1):504-510

In order to investigate the hypothesis that dust aggregates were transformed to meteoritic chondrules by nebular lightning, we exposed silicatic and metallic dust samples to electrical discharges with energies of 120 to 500 J in air at pressures between 10 and 10⁵ Pa. The target charges consisted of powders of micrometer-sized particles and had dimensions of mm. The dust samples generally fragmented leaving the major fraction thermally unprocessed. A minor part formed sintered aggregates of 50 to 500 μm. In a few experiments melt spherules having sizes ?180 μm in diameter (and, generally, interior voids) were formed; the highest spherule fraction was obtained with metallic Ni. Our experiments indicate that chondrule formation by electric current or by particle bombardment inside a discharge channel is unlikely.  相似文献   

Developing food,water and energy nexus workflows     

Ian McCallum  Carsten Montzka  Bagher Bayat  Stefan Kollet  Andrii Kolotii  Nataliia Kussul 《International Journal of Digital Earth》2020,13(2):299-308

ABSTRACT

There is a growing recognition of the interdependencies among the supply systems that rely upon food, water and energy. Billions of people lack safe and sufficient access to these systems, coupled with a rapidly growing global demand and increasing resource constraints. Modeling frameworks are considered one of the few means available to understand the complex interrelationships among the sectors, however development of nexus related frameworks has been limited. We describe three open-source models well known in their respective domains (i.e. TerrSysMP, WOFOST and SWAT) where components of each if combined could help decision-makers address the nexus issue. We propose as a first step the development of simple workflows utilizing essential variables and addressing components of the above-mentioned models which can act as building-blocks to be used ultimately in a comprehensive nexus model framework. The outputs of the workflows and the model framework are designed to address the SDGs.  相似文献   

Magnetic Aggregation: Dynamics and Numerical Modeling     

Carsten DominikHenrik Nübold 《Icarus》2002,157(1):173-186

Focusing on preplanetary grains growth, we discuss the properties of dust aggregation driven by magnetic dipole forces. While there is no direct evidence for the existence of magnetic grains present in the solar nebula, there are reasons to assume they may have been present. We derive analytical expressions for the cross section of two interacting dipoles. The effective cross section depends upon the strength of the magnetic dipoles and the initial velocities. For typical conditions the magnetic cross section is between two and three orders of magnitude larger than the geometric cross section. We study the growth dynamics of magnetic grains and find that the mass of the aggregates should increase with time as t^3.2 whereas Brownian motion growth behaves as t². A numerical tool is introduced which can be used to model dust aggregation in great detail, including the treatment of contact forces, aggregate restructuring processes, and long-range forces. This tool is used to simulate collisions between magnetic grains or clusters and to validate the analytical cross sections. The numerically derived cross section is in excellent agreement with the analytical expression. The numerical tool is also used to demonstrate that structural changes in the aggregates during collisions can be significant.  相似文献   

Use of the ACDEP trajectory model in the Danish nation-wide Background Monitoring Programme     

C Ambelas Skjøth  O Hertel  T Ellermann 《Physics and Chemistry of the Earth》2002,27(35):1469-1477

The frequently observed eutrophication problems in Danish marine waters are associated with high nutrient loads. This paper outlines how the atmospheric part of the load is determined within the framework of the Danish Background Monitoring Programme. The analyses within the programme are carried out by use of both measurements and model calculations, where the modelling part receives the main focus in this paper. The performed calculations indicate that the atmospheric nitrogen deposition to the Danish marine waters is of comparable size to the river run-off, and in some periods even the dominating contribution to the overall nitrogen input. The model results are shown to be sensitive to the resolution of the meteorological input data for the calculations. Strong improvement of the model performance is the result when meteorological data with much higher temporal and spatial resolution are applied.  相似文献   

Hf-Nd isotope evidence for contemporaneous subduction processes in the source of late Archean arc lavas from the Superior Province, Canada   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Ali Polat  Carsten Münker 《Chemical Geology》2004,213(4):403-429

Volcanic suites from Wawa greenstone belts in the southern Superior Province comprise an association of typical late Archean arc volcanic rocks including adakites, magnesian andesites (MA), niobium-enriched basalts (NEB), and ‘normal’ tholeiitic to calc-alkaline basalts to rhyolites. The adakites represent melts from subducted oceanic crust and all other suites were derived from the mantle wedge above the subducting oceanic lithosphere. The magnesian andesites are interpreted to be the product of hybridization of adakite melts with arc mantle wedge peridotite. The initial ?_Hf values of the ∼2.7 Ga Wawa adakites (+3.5 to +5.2), magnesian andesites (+2.6 to +5.1), niobium-enriched basalts (+4.4 to +6.6), and ‘normal’ tholeiitic to calc-alkaline arc basalts (+5.3 to +6.4) are consistent with long-term depleted mantle sources. The niobium-enriched basalts and ‘normal’ arc basalts have more depleted ?_Hf values than the adakites and magnesian andesites. The initial ?_Nd values in the magnesian andesites (+0.4 to +2.0), niobium-enriched basalts (+1.4 to +2.4), and ‘normal’ arc tholeiitic to calc-alkaline basalts (+1.6 to +2.9) overlap with, but extend to lower values than, the slab-derived adakites (+2.3 to +2.8). The lower initial ?_Nd values in the mantle-wedge-derived suites, particularly in the magnesian andesites, are attributed to recycling of an Nd-enriched component with lower ?_Nd to the mantle wedge. As a group, the slab-derived adakites plot closest to the 2.7 Ga depleted mantle value in ?_Nd versus ?_Hf space, additionally suggesting that the Nd-enriched component in the mantle wedge did not originate from the 2.7 Ga slab-derived melts. Accordingly, we suggest that the enriched component had been added to the mantle wedge at variable proportions by recycling of older continental material. This recycling process may have occurred as early as 50-70 Ma before the initiation of the 2.7 Ga subduction zone. The selective enrichment of Nd in the sources of the Superior Province magmas can be explained by experimental studies and geochemical observations in modern subduction systems, indicating that light rare earth elements (e.g., La, Ce, Sm, Nd) are more soluble than high field strength elements (e.g., Zr, Hf, Nb, Ta) in aqueous fluids that are derived from subducted slabs. As a corollary, we suggest that the recycled Nd-enriched component was added to the mantle source of the Wawa arc magmas by dehydration of subducted sediments.  相似文献   

Iron isotope fractionation during planetary differentiation   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

Stefan Weyer  Ariel D. Anbar  Carsten Münker  Alan B. Woodland 《Earth and Planetary Science Letters》2005,240(2):251-264

The Fe isotope composition of samples from the Moon, Mars (SNC meteorites), HED parent body (eucrites), pallasites (metal and silicate) and the Earth's mantle were measured using high mass resolution MC-ICP-MS. These high precision measurements (δ⁵⁶Fe ≈ ± 0.04‰, 2 S.D.) place tight constraints on Fe isotope fractionation during planetary differentiation.Fractionation during planetary core formation is confined to < 0.1‰ for δ⁵⁶Fe by the indistinguishable Fe isotope composition of pallasite bulk metal (including sulfides and phosphides) and olivine separates. However, large isotopic variations (≈ 0.5‰) were observed among pallasite metal separates, varying systematically with the amounts of troilite, schreibersite, kamacite and taenite. Troilite generally has the lightest (δ⁵⁶Fe ≈ − 0.25‰) and schreibersite the heaviest (δ⁵⁶Fe ≈ + 0.2‰) Fe isotope composition. Taenite is heavier then kamacite. Therefore, these variations probably reflect Fe isotope fractionation during the late stage evolution and differentiation of the S- and P-rich metal melts, and during low-temperature kamacite exsolution, rather than fractionation during silicate-metal separation.Differentiation of the silicate portion of planets also seems to fractionate Fe isotopes. Notably, magmatic rocks (partial melts) are systematically isotopically heavier than their mantle protoliths. This is indicated by the mean of 11 terrestrial peridotite samples from different tectonic settings (δ⁵⁶Fe = + 0.015 ± 0.018‰), which is significantly lighter than the mean of terrestrial basalts (δ⁵⁶Fe = + 0.076 ± 0.029‰). We consider the peridotite mean to be the best estimate for the Fe isotope composition of the bulk silicate Earth, and probably also of bulk Earth. The terrestrial basaltic mean is in good agreement with the mean of the lunar samples (δ⁵⁶Fe = + 0.073 ± 0.019‰), excluding the high-Ti basalts. The high-Ti basalts display the heaviest Fe isotope composition of all rocks measured here (δ⁵⁶Fe ≈ + 0.2‰). This is interpreted as a fingerprint of the lunar magma ocean, which produced a very heterogeneous mantle, including the ilmenite-rich source regions of these basalts.Within uncertainties, samples from Mars (SNC meteorites), HED (eucrites) and the pallasites (average olivine + metal) have the same Fe isotope compositions as the Earth's mantle. This indicates that the solar system is very homogeneous in Fe isotopes. Its average δ⁵⁶Fe is very close to that of the IRMM-014 standard.  相似文献   

Late Cretaceous eclogite in the Eastern Rhodopes (Bulgaria): evidence for subduction under the Sredna Gora magmatic arc     

Miladinova  Irena  Froitzheim  Nikolaus  Nagel  Thorsten J.  Janák  Marian  Georgiev  Neven  Fonseca  Raúl O. C.  Sandmann  Sascha  Münker  Carsten 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》2018,107(6):2083-2099

International Journal of Earth Sciences - The Rhodopes in Bulgaria and Greece represent a nappe stack of high-grade units with polymetamorphic history. Constraining the time of metamorphism in...  相似文献