Statistical Downscaling Based on Dynamically DownscaledPredictors： Application to Monthly Precipitation in Sweden   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

Cecilia HELLSTR?M  Deliang CHEN 《大气科学进展》2003,20(6):951-958

A prerequisite of a successful statistical downscaling is that large-scale predictors simulated by the General Circulation Model (GCM) must be realistic. It is assumed here that features smaller than the GCM resolution are important in determining the realism of the large-scale predictors. It is tested whether a three-step method can improve conventional one-step statistical downscaling. The method uses predictors that are upscaled from a dynamical downscaling instead of predictors taken directly from a GCM simulation. The method is applied to downscaling of monthly precipitation in Sweden. The statistical model used is a multiple regression model that uses indices of large-scale atmospheric circulation and 850-hPa specific humidity as predictors. Data from two GCMs (HadCM2 and ECHAM4) and two RCM experiments of the Rossby Centre model (RCA1) driven by the GCMs are used. It is found that upscaled RCA1 predictors capture the seasonal cycle better than those from the GCMs, and hence increase the reliability of the downscaled precipitation. However, there are only slight improvements in the simulation of the seasonal cycle of downscaled precipitation. Due to the cost of the method and the limited improvements in the downscaling results, the three-step method is not justified to replace the one-step method for downscaling of Swedish precipitation.  相似文献   

Three million years of monsoon variability over the northern Sahara   总被引：8，自引：0，他引：8  

J. C. Larrasoaña  A. P. Roberts  E. J. Rohling  M. Winklhofer  R. Wehausen 《Climate Dynamics》2003,21(7-8):689-698

We present a 3 million year record of aeolian dust supply into the eastern Mediterranean Sea, based on hematite contents derived from magnetic properties of sediments from Ocean Drilling Program Site 967. Our record has an average temporal resolution of 400 years. Geochemical data validate this record of hematite content as a proxy for the supply of aeolian dust from the Sahara. We deduce that the aeolian hematite in eastern Mediterranean sediments derives from the eastern Algerian, Libyan, and western Egyptian lowlands located north of the central Saharan watershed (21°N). In corroboration of earlier work, we relate dust flux minima to penetration of the African summer monsoon front to the north of the central Saharan watershed. This would have enhanced soil humidity and vegetation cover in the source regions, in agreement with results from green Sahara climate models. Our results indicate that this northward monsoon penetration recurred during insolation maxima throughout the last 3 million years. As would be expected, this orbital precession-scale mechanism is modulated on both short (100-kyr) and long (400-kyr) eccentricity time scales. We also observe a strong expression of the 41-kyr (obliquity) cycle, which we discuss in terms of high- and low-latitude mechanisms that involve Southern Hemisphere meridional temperature contrasts and shifts in the latitudes of the tropics, respectively. We also observe a marked increase in sub-Milankovitch variability around the mid-Pleistocene transition (0.95 Ma), which suggests a link between millennial-scale climate variability, including monsoon dynamics, and the size of northern hemisphere ice sheets.  相似文献   

Stable Eocene Magnetization Carried by Magnetite and Iron Sulphides in Marine Marls (Pamplona-Arguis Formation,Southern Pyrenees,Northern Spain)     

Larrasoaña  J.C.  Parés  J.M.  Pueyo  E.L. 《Studia Geophysica et Geodaetica》2003,47(2):237-254

In order to establish the magnetic carriers and assess the reliability of previous paleomagnetic results obtained for Eocene marine marls from the south Pyrenean basin, we carried out a combined paleo- and rock-magnetic study of the Pamplona-Arguis Formation, which crops out in the western sector of the southern Pyrenees (N Spain). The unblocking temperatures suggest that the characteristic remanent magnetization (ChRM) is carried by magnetite and iron sulphides. The ChRM has both normal and reversed polarities regardless of whether it resides in magnetite or iron sulphides, and represents a primary Eocene magnetization acquired before folding. Rock magnetic results confirm the presence of magnetite and smaller amounts of magnetic iron sulphides, most likely pyrrhotite, in all the studied samples. Framboidal pyrite is ubiquitous in the marls and suggests that iron sulphides formed during early diagenesis under sulphate-reducing conditions. ChRM directions carried by magnetic iron sulphides are consistent with those recorded by magnetite. These observations suggest that magnetic iron sulphides carry a chemical remanent magnetization that coexists with a remanence residing in detrital magnetite. We suggest that the south Pyrenean Eocene marls are suitable for magnetostratigraphic and tectonic purposes but not for studies of polarity transitions, secular variations and geomagnetic excursions, because it is difficult to test for short time differences in remanence lock-in time for the two minerals. The presence of iron sulphide minerals contributing to the primary magnetization in Eocene marine marls reinforces the idea that these minerals can persist over long periods of time in the geological record.  相似文献   

The effect of chlorite interlayering on <Superscript>40</Superscript>Ar–<Superscript>39</Superscript>Ar biotite dating: an <Superscript>40</Superscript>Ar–<Superscript>39</Superscript>Ar laser-probe and TEM investigations of variably chloritised biotites     

Gianfranco?Di VincenzoEmail author  Cecilia?Viti  Sergio?Rocchi 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》2003,145(6):643-658

Biotite is one of the most common minerals dated by the ⁴⁰Ar–³⁹Ar method. It frequently shows K contents below the expected stoichiometric value, suggesting the presence of low-K impurities. The most common low-K alteration product of biotite is chlorite. Therefore, it is important to understand the effects of chlorite interlayering on ⁴⁰Ar–³⁹Ar ages in order to correctly interpret ⁴⁰Ar–³⁹Ar data. This study examines the outcome of ⁴⁰Ar–³⁹Ar dating analyses on variably chloritised biotites from Ordovician intrusive rocks. The infrared (IR) laser-probe technique and different gas extraction methods were adopted. Incremental laser-heating data on bulk samples yielded hump-shaped age profiles with meaningless young and old age steps. Both the extent of anomalous old age steps and the degree of discordance of the age spectra were much more pronounced in the more chloritised biotite samples. In contrast, in situ data on rock chips and total-fusion ages on single biotite flakes yielded ages concordant with, or younger than, the inferred emplacement ages. Transmission electron microscopy (TEM) was used to texturally characterise biotite samples at the nanometre scale. It was also used to document the complex decomposition-transformation process affecting interlayered biotite–chlorite during in-vacuo IR-laser heating to temperatures ranging from ~600 to >1,000 °C. TEM results suggest that hump-shaped age profiles result from an interplay between ³⁹Ar_K redistribution by recoil during sample irradiation and differential release of argon isotopes hosted in three main reservoirs. These reservoirs are (from least to most retentive): extended defects, chlorite and biotite. The final descending age segment is attributed to the progressive release of argon with increasing temperature from large biotite domains for which ³⁹Ar_K recoil loss was less important. ⁴⁰Ar–³⁹Ar data support previous findings, which suggest that ⁴⁰Ar–³⁹Ar ages when recoil effects are minimised, provide minimum estimates that approach the true biotite age, when the pristine domains are analysed. The most effective approach for obtaining meaningful ⁴⁰Ar–³⁹Ar ages was using individual total-fusion analyses on carefully selected, single flakes previously split along the basal cleavage by wet-grinding and corresponding to a sample mass of a few micrograms.Editorial responsibility: I Parsons  相似文献   

A paleoenvironmental reconstruction of Laguna Babícora, Chihuahua, Mexico based on ostracode paleoecology and trace element shell chemistry     

Manuel R. Palacios-Fest  Ana Luisa Carreño  José R. Ortega-Ramírez  Guillermo Alvarado-Valdéz 《Journal of Paleolimnology》2002,27(2):185-206

Paleoecology of Laguna Babícora, Chihuahua, Mexico was reconstructed using ostracode faunal assemblages and shell chemistry. The paleolimnological record is used to show the magnitude of paleoclimatic changes in the area from 25,000 years to the present.Faunal assemblages consist of four species of the genus Limnocythere: L. sappaensis, L. ceriotuberosa, L. bradburyi and L. platyforma, all associated with Candona caudata, Candona patzcuaro and Cypridopsis vidua. A paleosalinity index developed from these assemblages indicates that the lake's salinity fluctuated frequently from oligo- to meso-haline conditions during the last 25,000 years. This pattern and low salinity range are in good agreement with modern TDS (here used as an indicator of salinity) values recorded from 26 wells and one spring from the area (258–975 mg l^–1). To estimate paleotemperature we examined the trace element content (Mg/Ca ratios) from individual valves of L. ceriotuberosa and L. platyforma, the two species most commonly recorded in Laguna Babícora.Shell Mg/Ca ratios of 204 specimens of these two species were used to estimate water temperature (Mg/Ca) by means of experimental standard coefficients. Our data show that paleowater temperature ranged from 5.6–21.3 °C (with 2 values ranging from 0.2–4.8 °C), which suggest a close correlation with atmospheric temperatures around the lake. These results are in good agreement with a modern mean winter temperature (3.5 °C) and mean summer temperature (20 °C) recorded in the area between 1970 and 1980.  相似文献   

Radio Emission from Three-dimensional Relativistic Hydrodynamic Jets: Observational Evidence of Jet Stratification     

Aloy MA  Gómez JL  Ibáñez JM  Martí JM  Müller E 《The Astrophysical journal》2000,536(2):L85-L88

High-resolution, high signal-to-noise ratio, blue-violet spectra of three red giant branch tip stars in M15 have been obtained with the Keck I High-Resolution Echelle Spectrograph. These spectra have been analyzed to determine the abundances of several neutron-capture elements, including the radioactive chronometer element thorium. There are two principal results of this study. First, the abundances of the heavier (Z>/=56) elements for each of the three stars is well matched by a scaled solar system r-process abundance distribution. Second, a weighted mean-observed Th/Eu ratio for the stars implies an age for the neutron-capture material in M15 stars of 14+/-3 Gyr, in reasonable agreement with other recent age estimates for Galactic globular clusters.  相似文献   

Analysis of the precipitation and cloudiness associated with COLs occurrence in the Iberian Peninsula     

R. Nieto  L. Gimeno  J. A. Añel  L. De la Torre  D. Gallego  D. Barriopedro  M. Gallego  A. Gordillo  A. Redaño  G. Delgado 《Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics》2007,96(1-2):103-119

Summary The Iberian Peninsula is one of the regions in the world with higher occurrence of cut-off low systems (COL). The aim of this paper is to analyse the weather events (rainfall and cloudiness layer) associated to COLs in the Iberian Peninsula with tools not previously used: (a) the use of the new multidecadal COLs database developed by Nieto et al (2005) that permit us to study a 41 years period (1958–1998), (b) the checking of the expected weather events (rainfall and cloudiness layer) associated with COLs in a conceptual model (Winkler et al, 2005) and (c) the extensive use of radiosoundings to analyse convective instability in areas inside and close to the COL. Two points of view are used to make the analysis: (1) a source oriented method, when a particular COL is followed and its associated precipitation and cloudiness is analysed over four quadrants in which Iberia was divided and (2) a receptor oriented method, when the precipitation associated to COLs is analysed in given areas, defined by patterns of precipitation. Results reveal that the precipitation and cloudiness patterns associated to COLs in the conceptual model reproduce quite well the main characteristics found over the Iberian Peninsula. The generalized idea that most of the COLs produce intense convective rainfall is show to be misleading. Convective phenomena are important usually when the centre of the COL is located on the Mediterranean region. Most of the rainfall associated with COLs comes from the baroclinic shield; specially in cases located over the west half of the Iberian Peninsula. It is shown that nearly 30% of COLs do not induce any rainfall; most of them located in the southern half of the Peninsula, and mainly during autumn. Only 30% of COLs produce generalized rainfall over the whole analysed territory, being most of them (about 90%) located over the western half of the Iberian Peninsula.  相似文献   

Microclimatic characterization of a karstic cave: human impact on microenvironmental parameters of a prehistoric rock art cave (Candamo Cave, northern Spain)   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

M. Hoyos  V. Soler  J. C. Cañaveras  S. Sánchez-Moral  E. Sanz-Rubio 《Environmental Geology》1998,33(4):231-242

The Candamo Cave contains an important group of paleolithic paintings which have been seriously deteriorated due to mass tourism. In this work, an analysis was carried out of different climatic parameters (CO₂, temperature, humidity, ²²²Rn) during annual cycles with the cave closed to the public and during an experimental period of controlled visits. The effect of visits on the geochemical characteristics of karstic water was also analyzed together with the cave ventilation. The natural variations in the cave air CO₂ were above 3000 ppm, the increase produced through visits was only 100–110 ppm and since the humidity is almost permanently at saturation point, the critical parameter which limits the visitor capacity becomes air temperature. The temperature changes during the annual cycle are of the order of 1  °C in the external part and less than 0.5  °C in the internal part of the cave and a maximum increase of 0.13  °C was observed during the period of the visits. The ²²²Rn and CO₂ concentration minimums in the summer period (July–October) show that this is the most propitious time for visits, since the greatest ventilation is produced in the cave at this time and, therefore, the greatest capacity for recovery. The geochemistry of the water, on the other hand, indicated that this is the period of the year in which processes of wall corrosion can be most easily introduced, although this would be of limited magnitude. The visitor capacity calculated was 29 visitors/day. Received: 29 August 1996 · Accepted: 23 June 1997  相似文献   

Coda Q before and after the eruptions of 13 November 1985, and 1 September 1989, at Nevado del Ruiz Volcano, Colombia     

B. John Makario Londoño  A. John Jairo Sanchez  E. Luis Eduardo Toro  Fernando Gil Cruz  Olga Patricia Bohorquez 《Bulletin of Volcanology》1998,59(8):556-561

 Coda Q^–1 was calculated at Nevado del Ruiz Volcano (NRV) before and after two phreatomagmatic eruptions (November 1985, September 1989) and for a period of stability (May 1987) using a functional form for coda derived from a single scattering model (Sato 1977). Substantial changes were found before and after the eruptions. The highest value of Q^–1 was found during the November 1985 eruption, an intermediate value for the September 1989 eruption, and the lowest value for May 1987. It seems that the changes in coda Q^–1 at NRV have a still-unknown relationship with the volume or magnitude of the eruption. A relatively strong frequency dependence was found for all periods. Also Q^–1 clearly changed with time, suggesting that the scattering was strong for the eruption of November 1985 and decreased for the eruption of September 1989, and that the intrinsic absorption probably increased. This suggests the possibility that crystallization is taking place in the NRV magma. The clear change of coda Q^–1 before and after the eruptions at NRV also suggests the possibility that coda Q^–1 is a premonitory tool of activity at this volcano. Received: 25 October 1996 / Accepted: 21 January 1998  相似文献   

Kinematic Dynamos in the Kerr Metric     

Núñez  M. 《Studia Geophysica et Geodaetica》1998,42(3):424-430

It is known that a sharp decrease in the angular velocity of the accretion disk around a black hole could in principle produce a kinematic axisymmetric dynamo, in contrast to the classical situation described by Cowling's antidynamo theorem. Here the effect of a nontrivial poloidal velocity of the disk is studied, showing that a strong gradient of this velocity enhances the possibilities of a working dynamo.  相似文献