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61.
62.
Synoptic weather typing and regression-based downscaling approaches have become popular in evaluating the impacts of climate change on a variety of environmental problems, particularly those involving extreme impacts. One of the reasons for the popularity of these approaches is their ability to categorize a complex set of meteorological variables into a coherent index, facilitating the projection of changes in frequency and intensity of future daily extreme weather events and/or their impacts. This paper illustrated the capability of the synoptic weather typing and regression methods to analyze climatic change impacts on a number of extreme weather events and environmental problems for south–central Canada, such as freezing rain, heavy rainfall, high-/low-streamflow events, air pollution, and human health. These statistical approaches are helpful in analyzing extreme events and projecting their impacts into the future through three major steps or analysis procedures: (1) historical simulation modeling to identify extreme weather events or their impacts, (2) statistical downscaling to provide station-scale future hourly/daily climate data, and (3) projecting changes in the frequency and intensity of future extreme weather events and their impacts under a changing climate. To realize these steps, it is first necessary to conceptualize the modeling of the meteorology, hydrology and impacts model variables of significance and to apply a number of linear/nonlinear regression techniques. Because the climate/weather validation process is critical, a formal model result verification process has been built into each of these three steps. With carefully chosen physically consistent and relevant variables, the results of the verification, based on historical observations of the outcome variables simulated by the models, show a very good agreement in all applications and extremes tested to date. Overall, the modeled results from climate change studies indicate that the frequency and intensity of future extreme weather events and their impacts are generally projected to significantly increase late this century over south–central Canada under a changing climate. The implications of these increases need be taken into consideration and integrated into policies and planning for adaptation strategies, including measures to incorporate climate change into engineering infrastructure design standards and disaster risk reduction measures. This paper briefly summarized these climate change research projects, focusing on the modeling methodologies and results, and attempted to use plain language to make the results more accessible and interesting to the broader informed audience. These research projects have been used to support decision-makers in south–central Canada when dealing with future extreme weather events under climate change.  相似文献   
63.
A simple model to study the decay of turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) in the convective surface layer is presented. In this model, the TKE is dependent upon two terms, the turbulent dissipation rate and the surface buoyancy fluctuations. The time evolution of the surface sensible heat flux is modelled based on fitting functions of actual measurements from the LITFASS-2003 field campaign. These fitting functions carry an amplitude and a time scale. With this approach, the sensible heat flux can be estimated without having to solve the entire surface energy balance. The period of interest covers two characteristic transition sub-periods involved in the decay of convective boundary-layer turbulence. The first sub-period is the afternoon transition, when the sensible heat flux starts to decrease in response to the reduction in solar radiation. It is typically associated with a decay rate of TKE of approximately t −2 (t is time following the start of the decay) after several convective eddy turnover times. The early evening transition is the second sub-period, typically just before sunset when the surface sensible heat flux becomes negative. This sub-period is characterized by an abrupt decay in TKE associated with the rapid collapse of turbulence. Overall, the results presented show a significant improvement of the modelled TKE decay when compared to the often applied assumption of a sensible heat flux decreasing instantaneously or with a very short forcing time scale. In addition, for atmospheric modelling studies, it is suggested that the afternoon and early evening decay of sensible heat flux be modelled as a complementary error function.  相似文献   
64.
Egg capsules of the squid Doryteuthis (= Loligo) opalescens were reared in the laboratory to assess the dependence of time‐to‐hatching (incubation time) and hatching success rate on temperature and light regime. Both incubation time and hatch duration were found to be inversely related to temperature. More than 96% of paralarvae hatch from eggs reared at temperatures between 9 and 14 °C. Hatch rate drops below 90% in warmer and colder water. No eggs hatch below 7 °C, and the upper limit of viability is near 25 °C. The vast majority (91%) of hatchlings emerged during the dark phase of the photoperiod. Egg capsules reared at 13.4 °C with a supposedly commensal polychaete, Capitella ovincola, had a slightly higher hatch rate than those without the annelid. Because eggs are naturally laid closely together, crowding was hypothesized to cause decreased ventilation and a lower hatch rate. Crowding was tested by placing two capsules (rather than one) into the small incubation chambers (50 ml). This treatment did not result in a lower hatch rate at 13.4 °C, but at 21.4 °C it decreased the hatch rate by 20%. Brood incubation duration is related to temperature by the equation: Incubation (days) = 14.97 + 177.40 × exp(?0.119 × Temperature –°C) (χ2 = 282.5, P = 0.001). Stable isotope analysis confirmed that C. ovincola worms eat the capsule matrix, not the paralarvae. These polychaetes had a δ15N value of 12.79‰versus 12.06‰ for squid paralarvae, and 10.54‰ for the gelatinous matrix of egg capsules. This fractionation factor ε of 2.25‰ is consistent with marine food webs. Provision of nutrients and shelter for the annelids and increased hatch rate for the squid embryos suggests a symbiotic relationship between these organisms.  相似文献   
65.
Constraining the pressure of crystallisation of large silicic magma bodies gives important insight into the depth and vertical extent of magmatic plumbing systems; however, it is notably difficult to constrain pressure at the level of detail necessary to understand shallow magmatic systems. In this study, we use the recently developed rhyolite-MELTS geobarometer to constrain the crystallisation pressures of rhyolites from the Taupo Volcanic Zone (TVZ). As sanidine is absent from the studied deposits, we calculate the pressures at which quartz and feldspar are found to be in equilibrium with melt now preserved as glass (the quartz +1 feldspar constraint of Gualda and Ghiorso, Contrib Mineral Petrol 168:1033. doi: 10.1007/s00410-014-1033-3. 2014). We use glass compositions (matrix glass and melt inclusions) from seven eruptive deposits dated between ~320 and 0.7 ka from four distinct calderas in the central TVZ, and we discuss advantages and limitations of the rhyolite-MELTS geobarometer in comparison with other geobarometers applied to the same eruptive deposits. Overall, there is good agreement with other pressure estimates from the literature (amphibole geobarometry and H2O–CO2 solubility models). One of the main advantages of this new geobarometer is that it can be applied to both matrix glass and melt inclusions—regardless of volatile saturation. The examples presented also emphasise the utility of this method to filter out spurious glass compositions. Pressure estimates obtained with the new rhyolite-MELTS geobarometer range between ~250 to ~50 MPa, with a large majority at ~100 MPa. These results confirm that the TVZ hosts some of the shallowest rhyolitic magma bodies on the planet, resulting from the extensional tectonic regime and thinning of the crust. Distinct populations with different equilibration pressures are also recognised, which is consistent with the idea that multiple batches of eruptible magma can be present in the crust at the same time and can be tapped simultaneously by large eruptive events.  相似文献   
66.
67.
In 1975 E. H. Rapoport described a pattern of increasing latitudinal range sizes for organisms with increasing latitude, a pattern that is now known as Rapoport's rule. The universal applicability of Rapoport's rule has been long contested, making it one of the more controversial biogeographic “rules.” This study aims to reassess the applicability of Rapoport's rule to U.S. tree species. Data presented here suggest that Rapoport's rule does indeed apply to most tree taxa within the United States, but may be taxon specific. In addition, data presented here suggest that tree range patterns consistent with Rapoport's rule in the United States are not restricted to high latitudes and are not the result of a “boundedness effect” but may be intimately linked with the glacial history and physical geography of North America. The analyses conducted here are intended to emphasize the utility of such biogeographic rules even if they are not universally applicable and should, in turn, only be considered biogeographic patterns.  相似文献   
68.
The degree of layered organization of planktonic organisms in coastal systems impacts trophic interactions, the vertical availability of nutrients, and many biological rate processes. While there is reasonable characterization of the vertical structure of these phenomena, the extent and horizontal length scale of variation has rarely been addressed. Here we extend the examination of the vertical scale in the first paper of the series to the horizontal scale with combined shipboard acoustic measurements and bio-optic measurements taken on an autonomous underwater vehicle. Measurements were made in Monterey Bay, CA from 2002 to 2008 for the bio-optical parameters and during 2006 for acoustic scattering measurements. The combined data set was used to evaluate the horizontal decorrelation length scales of the bio-optical and acoustic scattering layers themselves. Because biological layers are often decoupled from the physical structure of the water column, assessment of the variance within identified layers was appropriate. This differs from other studies in that physical parameters were not used as a basis for the layer definition. There was a significant diel pattern to the decorrelation length scale for acoustic layers with the more abundant nighttime layers showing less horizontal variability despite their smaller horizontal extent. A significant decrease in the decorrelation length scale was found in bio-optical parameters over six years of study, coinciding with a documented shift in the plankton community. Results highlight the importance of considering plankton behavior and time of day with respect to scale when studying layers, and the challenges of sampling these phenomena.  相似文献   
69.
Although littoral regions in northern lakes may sustain fish spawning grounds, little is known of the temporal or spatial aspects of their thermal and chemical regimes. This shortcoming is due in part to the difficulty in properly sampling these regions throughout the year with adequate spatial resolution. This problem is especially critical in lakes affected by episodic acidification during the spring snowmelt, a period of substantial importance to fisheries recruitment. A device was constructed to alleviate the problems associated with conventional water quality sampling of littoral regions. Constructed of thick walled polyvinyl chloride and permanently installed in the nearshore regions of an Adirondack lake, the episodic event sampler (EES) provided finely resolved (0.25 m) temperature and water chemistry data during the spring snowmelt period (February to May) of 1989. Although the construction and installation of the sampler represented a significant investment in labour and materials, this was offset by the high quality of the data collected. As the samplers were relatively undamaged by freeze-thaw activity, it is expected that they will continue to provide excellent information for several years.  相似文献   
70.
This study investigated the potential for transport of organisms between Hobart, Macquarie Island and the Antarctic continent by ships used in support of Antarctic science and tourism. Northward transport of plankton in ballast water is more likely than southward transport because ballast is normally loaded in the Antarctic and unloaded at the home port. Culturing of ballast water samples revealed that high-latitude hitchhikers were able to reach greater diversities when cultured at temperate thermal conditions than at typical Southern Ocean temperatures, suggesting the potential for establishment in the Tasmanian coastal environment. Several known invasive species were identified among fouling communities on the hulls of vessels that travel between Hobart and the Southern Ocean. Southward transport of hull fouling species is more likely than northward transport due to the accumulation of assemblages during the winter period spent in the home port of Hobart. This study does not prove that non-indigenous marine species have, or will be, transported and established as a consequence of Antarctic shipping but illustrates that the potential exists. Awareness of the potential risk and simple changes to operating procedures may reduce the chance of introductions in the future.  相似文献   
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