Using the Hazus-MH flood model to evaluate community relocation as a flood mitigation response to terminal lake flooding: The case of Minnewaukan, North Dakota, USA   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Christina A. Cummings Paul E. Todhunter  Bradley C. Rundquist 《Applied geography (Sevenoaks, England)》2012,32(2):889-895

Devils Lake, a terminal lake in eastern North Dakota, has risen nearly 9.0 m since 1993, resulting in over $1 Billion in direct federal payments for disaster mitigation. More than 500 homes and 700 total structures have either been relocated or destroyed by the rising lake. The City of Minnewaukan, once nearly 13.0 km from the lake shoreline, is now facing the possibility of partial or complete relocation.We use the Hazus-MH MR4 Flood Model to examine potential flood damages in Minnewaukan associated with potential future lake levels ranging from 442.57 to 445.01 m at fixed water surface elevation (WSE) increments. We use three data sets to conduct a level 2 analysis in which user-supplied data allows for a site-specific analysis of flood damages. These include: 1) structure elevation surveyed by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, b) the 2010 Real Property Assessment Book for the City of Minnewaukan, and c) more than 200 individual property cards. Flood depth grids were provided by the Federal Emergency Management Agency in the form of bare-earth digital elevation models derived from LiDAR point clouds. Results include a series of graduated circle flood maps showing the location and assessed value of inundated buildings, and flood damage profiles showing the cumulative number of buildings inundated and their assessed value over a range of WSE increments.We show that the functionality of Hazus-MH can be extended to examine lakeshore flood hazards, and that it provides an important geovisualization tool in evaluating relocation as a flood mitigation alternative.  相似文献   

Dust devil speeds, directions of motion and general characteristics observed by the Mars Express High Resolution Stereo Camera     

Christina Stanzel  Martin Pätzold  Patrick L. Whelley  Ronald Greeley  the HRSC Co-Investigator Team 《Icarus》2008,197(1):39-51

A total of 205 dust devils were detected in 23 High Resolution Stereo Camera (HRSC) images taken between January 2004 and July 2006 with the ESA Mars Express orbiter, in which average dust devil heights were ∼660 m and average diameters were ∼230 m. For the first time, dust devil velocities were directly measured from orbit, and range from 1 to 59 m/s. The observed dust devil directions of motion are consistent with data derived from a General Circulation Model (GCM). In some respects HRSC dust devil properties agree favorably with data from the NASA Mars Exploration Rover Spirit dust devil analyses. The spatial distribution of the active dust devils detected by HRSC supports the conjecture that the ascending branch of the Hadley circulation is responsible for the increase in dust devil activity, especially observed during southern summer between 50° and 60° S latitude. Combining the dust-lifting rate of 19 kg/km²/sol derived from the Spirit observations with the fewer in number but larger in size dust devils from various other locations observed by HRSC, we suggest that dust devils make a significant contribution to the dust entrainment into the atmosphere and to the martian dust cycle.  相似文献   

Proposed methods for potential evapotranspiration calculation of the Red River basin (North Vietnam)     

Thi Phuong Quynh Le  Christina Seidler  Matthias Kändler  Thi Bich Nga Tran 《水文研究》2012,26(18):2782-2790

Potential evapotranspiration (ETP) is an important part of a climatic water balance and a crucial variable in many kinds of models in computing actual evapotranspiration. The objective of this study was to find a reasonable approach of ETP calculation for a height‐differentiated landscape in subtropical climate. From the pool of diverse approaches, six common methods [Hamon, Priestley–Taylor, Thornthwaite, Blaney–Criddle, Turc and Food and Agricultural Organization Irrigation and Drainage Paper No. 56 (FAO‐56)] were selected. With the meteorological data for long‐term period (1964–2008), the calculation of ETP values was performed for 12 different meteorological stations in the Red River basin. Among the applied ETP calculation methods, the Turc and the FAO‐56 methods agreed well at most stations and represent best the expectations for the ETP values of the Thao and Da subbasins. The findings of our investigations indicate that in highly structured (land use and elevation) regions, not all methods provide satisfying results. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Analysis of high-resolution simulations for the Black Forest region from a point of view of tourism climatology �C a comparison between two regional climate models (REMO and CLM)     

Christina Endler  Andreas Matzarakis 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2011,103(3-4):427-440

An analysis of climate simulations from a point of view of tourism climatology based on two regional climate models, namely REMO and CLM, was performed for a regional domain in the southwest of Germany, the Black Forest region, for two time frames, 1971?C2000 that represents the twentieth century climate and 2021?C2050 that represents the future climate. In that context, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios A1B and B1 are used. The analysis focuses on human-biometeorological and applied climatologic issues, especially for tourism purposes ?C that means parameters belonging to thermal (physiologically equivalent temperature, PET), physical (precipitation, snow, wind), and aesthetic (fog, cloud cover) facets of climate in tourism. In general, both models reveal similar trends, but differ in their extent. The trend of thermal comfort is contradicting: it tends to decrease in REMO, while it shows a slight increase in CLM. Moreover, REMO reveals a wider range of future climate trends than CLM, especially for sunshine, dry days, and heat stress. Both models are driven by the same global coupled atmosphere?Cocean model ECHAM5/MPI-OM. Because both models are not able to resolve meso- and micro-scale processes such as cloud microphysics, differences between model results and discrepancies in the development of even those parameters (e.g., cloud formation and cover) are due to different model parameterization and formulation. Climatic changes expected by 2050 are small compared to 2100, but may have major impacts on tourism as for example, snow cover and its duration are highly vulnerable to a warmer climate directly affecting tourism in winter. Beyond indirect impacts are of high relevance as they influence tourism as well. Thus, changes in climate, natural environment, demography, tourists?? demands, among other things affect economy in general. The analysis of the CLM results and its comparison with the REMO results complete the analysis performed within the project Climate Trends and Sustainable Development of Tourism in Coastal and Low Mountain Range Regions (CAST) funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF).  相似文献   

Effects of chronic exposure to dispersed oil on selected reproductive processes in adult blue mussels (Mytilus edulis) and the consequences for the early life stages of their larvae     

Baussant T  Ortiz-Zarragoitia M  Cajaraville MP  Bechmann RK  Taban IC  Sanni S 《Marine pollution bulletin》2011,62(7):1437-1445

Mussels (Mytilus edulis) were continuously exposed to dispersed crude oil (0.015-0.25 mg/l) for 7 months covering the whole gamete development cycle. After 1 month exposure to 0.25 mg oil/l, the level of alkali-labile phosphates (ALP) and the volume density of atretic oocytes in female gonads were higher than those in the gonads of control females, indicating that oil affected the level of vitellogenin-like proteins and gamete development. Spawning of mussels was induced after 7 months oil exposure. Parental oil exposure did not affect subsequent fertilization success in clean seawater but this was reduced in 0.25 mg oil/l. Parental exposure to 0.25 mg oil/l caused both slow development and a higher percentage of abnormalities in D-shell larvae 2 days post-fertilization; reduced growth 7 days post-fertilization. These effects were greatly enhanced when larval stages were maintained at 0.25 mg oil/l. Similar studies are warranted for risk assessment prognosis.  相似文献   

Satellite and ground observations of the June 2009 eruption of Sarychev Peak volcano, Matua Island, Central Kuriles     

Alexander Rybin  Marina Chibisova  Peter Webley  Torge Steensen  Pavel Izbekov  Christina Neal  Vince Realmuto 《Bulletin of Volcanology》2011,73(9):1377-1392

After 33 years of repose, one of the most active volcanoes of the Kurile island arc—Sarychev Peak on Matua Island in the Central Kuriles—erupted violently on June 11, 2009. The eruption lasted 9 days and stands among the largest of recent historical eruptions in the Kurile Island chain. Satellite monitoring of the eruption, using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer, Meteorological Agency Multifunctional Transport Satellite, and Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer data, indicated at least 23 separate explosions between 11 and 16 June 2009. Eruptive clouds reached altitudes of generally 8–16 km above sea level (ASL) and in some cases up to 21 km asl. Clouds of volcanic ash and gas stretched to the north and northwest up to 1,500 km and to the southeast for more than 3,000 km. For the first time in recorded history, ash fall occurred on Sakhalin Island and in the northeast sector of the Khabarovsky Region, Russia. Based on satellite image analysis and reconnaissance field studies in the summer of 2009, the eruption produced explosive tephra deposits with an estimated bulk volume of 0.4 km³. The eruption is considered to have a Volcanic Explosivity Index of 4. Because the volcano is remote, there was minimal risk to people or infrastructure on the ground. Aviation transport, however, was significantly disrupted because of the proximity of air routes to the volcano.  相似文献   

Chalcophile element geochemistry and petrogenesis of high-Ti and low-Ti magmas in the Permian Emeishan large igneous province,SW China   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

Christina Yan Wang  Mei-Fu Zhou  Liang Qi 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》2011,161(2):237-254

Sulfide-poor mafic layered intrusions, sills/dykes and lava flows in the Funing region, SW China, are part of the ~260 Ma Emeishan large igneous province. They belong to either a high-Ti group (TiO₂ = 1.6–4.4 wt%) with elevated Ti/Y ratios (351–1,018), or a low-Ti group (TiO₂ < 1.2 wt%) with low Ti/Y ratios (133–223). This study investigates the role of fractionation of olivine, chromite and sulfide on the distributions of chalcophile elements, Ni, Cu and PGE, of the high-Ti and low-Ti group rocks at Funing. The high-Ti group rocks contain 1.6–5.3 ppb Pt + Pd, 0.06–0.43 ppb Ir and 0.01–0.13 ppb Ru, and show relative constant (Cu/Pd)_PM ratios (4.0–9.7) and a negative correlation between Ni/Pd and Cu/Ir ratios. Fractionated IPGE/PPGE patterns and very negative Ru anomalies of the high-Ti group rocks, together with low Fo values (59–62 mol%) of olivine, indicate that the high-Ti magmas may have experienced fractionation of olivine and chromite under S-undersaturated condition. Based on the PGE concentrations, the low-Ti group rocks can be further divided into two subgroups; a high-PGE low-Ti subgroup and a low-PGE low-Ti subgroup. The high-PGE low-Ti group rocks are rich in MgO (10–20 wt%), but Fo values of olivine from the rocks are low (74–76 mol%). The rocks contain highly variable PGE (Pt + Pd = 1.7–88 ppb, Ir = 0.05–1.3 ppb), Ni (179 –1,380 ppm) and Cu (59–568 ppm). They have Cu/Zr ratios >1, low (Y/Pd)_PM ratios (0.2–7.1) and nearly constant (Cu/Pd)_PM ratios (1.5–3.8). The even and parallel chalcophile element patterns of the high-PGE low-Ti subgroup rocks are likely a result of olivine-dominated fractionation under S-undersaturated condition. The low-PGE low-Ti group rocks have low MgO (4.5–8.9 wt%) and very poor PGE (Pt + Pd 0.5–1.6 ppb, Ir 0.004–0.02 ppb) with low Cu/Zr ratios (0.1–0.5), high (Y/Pd)_PM (26–70) and variable (Cu/Pd)_PM ratios (2.8–14). The trough-like chalcophile element patterns of the low-PGE low-Ti subgroup rocks indicate that the magmas were sulfide saturation and sulfide melts were extracted from the magmas. The extracted sulfide melts might be potential Ni–Cu sulfide ores at depth in the Funing region.  相似文献   

The child: An encyclopedic companion – Edited by Richard A. Shweder     

Christina Ergler 《New Zealand geographer》2011,67(1):68-69

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Mid-twenty-first century warm season climate change in the Central United States. Part I: regional and global model predictions     

Christina M. Patricola  Kerry H. Cook 《Climate Dynamics》2013,40(3-4):551-568

A regional climate model (RCM) constrained by future anomalies averaged from atmosphere–ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) simulations is used to generate mid-twenty-first century climate change predictions at 30-km resolution over the central U.S. The predictions are compared with those from 15 AOGCM and 7 RCM dynamic downscaling simulations to identify common climate change signals. There is strong agreement among the multi-model ensemble in predicting wetter conditions in April and May over the northern Great Plains and drier conditions over the southern Great Plains in June through August for the mid-twenty-first century. Projected changes in extreme daily precipitation are statistically significant over only a limited portion of the central U.S. in the RCM constrained with future anomalies. Projected changes in monthly mean 2-m air temperature are generally consistent across the AOGCM ensemble average, North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program RCM ensemble average, and RCM constrained with future anomalies, which produce a maximum increase in August of 2.4–2.9 K over the northern and southern Great Plains and Midwest. Changes in extremes in daily 2-m air temperature from the RCM downscaled with anomalies are statistically significant over nearly the entire Great Plains and Midwest and indicate a positive shift in the warm tail of the daily 2-m temperature distribution that is larger than the positive shift in the cold tail.  相似文献   

On the applicability of the RETAS model for forecasting aftershock probability in underground mines (Kiirunavaara Mine,Sweden)     

Gospodinov  Dragomir  Dineva  Savka  Dahnér-Lindkvist  Christina 《Journal of Seismology》2022,26(5):1023-1037

Aftershock series of even comparatively small seismic events can pose a risk to the mining operation or the personnel in deep underground mines as the main shocks and some of the aftershocks can cause damage in the rock mass. Stochastic modeling was applied in this study for the analysis of the temporal evolution of aftershock occurrence probability during a M1.85 aftershock sequence in Kiirunavaara Mine, Sweden. The Restricted Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence (RETAS) model was chosen for estimation of the aftershock occurrence probability. This model considers all events with magnitude above the magnitude of completeness M₀ and has the advantage of including the Modified Omori Formula (MOF) model and Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model as its end versions, considering also all intermediate models. The model was applied sequentially to data samples covering cumulative periods of time, starting from the first 2 h after the main event and increasing them by 2 h until the period covered the entire 72-h sequence. For each sample, the best-fit RETAS version was identified and the probability of a M?≥?0.5 aftershock for every next 2 h was determined through Monte Carlo simulation. The feasibility of the resulting probability evolution for suspension and re-starting of the mining operations was discussed together with possible prospects for future development of the methodology.

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