Assessing physical vulnerability in large cities exposed to flash floods and debris flows: the case of Arequipa (Peru)     

Jean-Claude Thouret  Susanne Ettinger  Mathieu Guitton  Olivier Santoni  Christina Magill  Kim Martelli  Giulio Zuccaro  Victor Revilla  Juan Antonio Charca  Anita Arguedas 《Natural Hazards》2014,73(3):1771-1815

Understanding the physical vulnerability of buildings and infrastructure to natural hazards is an essential step in risk assessment for large cities. We have interpreted high spatial resolution images, conducted field surveys, and utilized numerical simulations, in order to assess vulnerability across Arequipa, south Peru, close to the active El Misti volcano. The emphasis of this study was on flash floods and volcanic or non-volcanic hyperconcentrated flows, which recur on average every 3.5 years across the city. We utilized a geographic information system to embed vulnerability and hazard maps as a step to calculate risk for buildings and bridges along the Río Chili valley and two tributaries. A survey of ~1,000 buildings from 46 city blocks, different in age, construction materials, and land usage, provided architectural and structural characteristics. A similar survey of twenty bridges across the three valleys was based on structural, hydraulic, and strategic parameters. Interpretation of high spatial resolution (HSR) satellite images, which allows for quick identification of approximately 69 % of the structural building types, effectively supplemented field data collection. Mapping vulnerability has led us to pinpoint strategic areas in case of future destructive floods or flows. Calculated vulnerability is high if we examine structural criteria alone. We further consider physical setting with the most vulnerable city blocks located on the lowermost terraces, perpendicular or oblique to the flow path. Statistical analysis conducted on 3,015 city blocks, considering nine criteria identified from HSR images, indicated that building-type heterogeneity and the shape of the city blocks, along with building and street network density, are the most discriminant parameters for assessing vulnerability.  相似文献   

The Influence of Coastal Nutrients on Phytoplankton Productivity in a Shallow Low Inflow Estuary,Drakes Estero,California (USA)     

Christina M. Buck  Frances P. Wilkerson  Alexander E. Parker  Richard C. Dugdale 《Estuaries and Coasts》2014,37(4):847-863

Seasonal wind-driven upwelling along the U.S. West Coast supplies large concentrations of nitrogen to surface waters that drives high primary production. However, the influence of coastal upwelled nutrients on phytoplankton productivity in adjacent small estuaries and bays is poorly understood. This study was conducted in Drakes Estero, California, a low inflow estuary located in the Point Reyes National Seashore and the site of an oyster mariculture facility that produces 40 % of the oysters harvested in California. Measurements of nutrients, chlorophyll a, phytoplankton functional groups, and phytoplankton carbon and nitrogen uptake were made between May 2010 and June 2011. A sea-to-land gradient in nutrient concentrations was observed with elevated nitrate at the coast and higher ammonium at the landward region. Larger phytoplankton cells (>5 μm diameter) were dominant within the outer and middle Estero where phytoplankton primary productivity was fueled by nitrate and f-ratios were >0.5; the greatest primary production rates were in the middle Estero. Primary production was lowest within the inner Estero, where smaller phytoplankton cells (<5 μm) were dominant, and nitrogen uptake was dominated by ammonium. Phytoplankton blooms occurred at the outer and middle Estero and were dominated by diatoms during the spring and dry-upwelling seasons but dinoflagellates during the fall. Small flagellated algae (>2 μm) were dominant at the inner Estero where no blooms occurred. These results indicate that coastal nitrate and phytoplankton are imported into Drakes Estero and lead to periods of high new production that can support the oyster mariculture; a likely scenario also for other small estuaries and bays.  相似文献   

Sporadic formation of slope streaks on Mars     

Norbert Schorghofer  Christina M. King 《Icarus》2011,216(1):159-168

Slope streaks are a form of gravity-driven mass-movements that frequently occur on Mars today. The cause of slope streak formation remains unclear; both, dry and wet processes have been suggested. Here, we observationally constrain the time of the year during which slope streaks form. Imagery from four Mars-orbiting cameras is mined to identify locations that have been imaged repeatedly, and the overlapping images are surveyed for streak activity. A search algorithm automatically finds the locations on the surface that have been imaged most often based on a graph representation. Dark slope streaks are found to form sporadically throughout the Mars year. At one study site in the Olympus Mons Aureole, observations constrain slope streak formation to at least five distinct time intervals within a single Mars year. New slope streaks form spatially isolated or in small groups within a few kilometers of one another. The observations suggest that slope streak triggering is unrelated to season and not caused by any large regional events. Most slope streaks are caused by sporadic events of small spatial extent.  相似文献   

The natural thermoluminescence of Antarctic meteorites and their terrestrial ages and orbits: A 2010 update     

Derek W. G. SEARS  Jordan YOZZO  Christina RAGLAND 《Meteoritics & planetary science》2011,46(1):79-91

Abstract– We have examined the relationship between natural thermoluminescence (TL) and ²⁶Al in 120 Antarctic meteorites in order to explore the orbital history and terrestrial ages of these meteorites. Our results confirm the observations of Hasan et al. (1987) which were based on 23 meteorites. For most meteorites there was a positive correlation between natural TL and ²⁶Al, reflecting their similarity in decay rate under Antarctic conditions and thus in terrestrial age. For a small group with low TL and high ²⁶Al a small perihelion was proposed. Within this group, natural TL decreases with terrestrial age as determined by ³⁶Cl measurements, although the rate of TL decay is faster (half‐life approximately 10 ka) and the ages that can be determined are smaller (<200 ka) than for most meteorites. The faster decay rate and lower natural TL levels are a reflection of recent exposure to higher radiation doses and higher temperatures, since this history would populate less stable TL traps with smaller electron densities. We sort the 120 meteorites by perihelion and terrestrial age. The normal perihelion group range up to approximately 1000 ka and the small perihelion group range up to approximately 200 ka. An intermediate perihelion group tends to have short terrestrial ages (20–60 ka). There is acceptable agreement between most (34 out of 43) of our present terrestrial age estimates and those determined by isotopic means, the exceptions reflecting complex irradiation histories, long burial times in the Antarctic, or other issues.  相似文献   

Scaling Issues in Forest Succession Modelling   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5  

Harald Bugmann  Marcus Lindner  Petra Lasch  Michael Flechsig  Beatrix Ebert  Wolfgang Cramer 《Climatic change》2000,44(3):265-289

This paper reviews scaling issues in forest succession modelling, focusing on forest gap models. Two modes of scaling are distinguished: (1) implicit scaling, i.e. taking scale-dependent features into account while developing model equations, and (2) explicit scaling, i.e. using procedures that typically involve numerical simulation to scale up the response of a local model in space and/or time. Special attention is paid to spatial upscaling methods, and downscaling is covered with respect to deriving scenarios of climatic change to drive gap models in impact assessments. When examining the equations used to represent ecological processes in forest gap models, it becomes evident that implicit scaling is relevant, but has not always been fully taken into consideration. A categorization from the literature is used to distinguish four methods for explicit upscaling of ecological models in space: (1) Lumping, (2) Direct extrapolation, (3) Extrapolation by expected value, and (4) Explicit integration. Examples from gap model studies are used to elaborate the potential and limitations of these methods, showing that upscaling to areas as large as 3000 km² is possible, given that there are no significant disturbances such as fires or insect outbreaks at the landscape scale. Regarding temporal upscaling, we find that it is important to consider migrational lags, i.e. limited availability of propagules, if one wants to assess the transient behaviour of forests in a changing climate, specifically with respect to carbon storage and the associated feedbacks to the atmospheric CO₂ content. Regarding downscaling, the ecological effects of different climate scenarios for the year 2100 were compared at a range of sites in central Europe. The derivation of the scenarios is based on (1) imposing GCM grid-cell average changes of temperature and precipitation on the local weather records; (2) a qualitative downscaling technique applied by the IPCC for central and southern Europe; and (3) statistical downscaling relating large-scale circulation patterns to local weather records. Widely different forest compositions may be obtained depending on the local climate scenario, suggesting that the downscaling issue is quite important for assessments of the ecological impacts of climatic change on forests.  相似文献   

Stochastic sediment transport: anomalous diffusions and random movement     

Tsai  Christina W.  Hung  Serena Y.  Wu  Tsung-Han 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2020,34(2):397-413

Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment - A sediment particle in a flow not only follows the flow direction but also randomly diffuses through the surrounding fluid, because of the...  相似文献   

Relationships between snowpack,low flows and stream temperature in mountain watersheds of the US west coast     

Gabrielle Boisramé  Adrian Harpold  Christina Tague 《水文研究》2024,38(5):e15157

Water temperatures in mountain streams are likely to rise under future climate change, with negative impacts on ecosystems and water quality. However, it is difficult to predict which streams are most vulnerable due to sparse historical records of mountain stream temperatures as well as complex interactions between snowpack, groundwater, streamflow and water temperature. Minimum flow volumes are a potentially useful proxy for stream temperature, since daily streamflow records are much more common. We confirmed that there is a strong inverse relationship between annual low flows and peak water temperature using observed data from unimpaired streams throughout the montane regions of the United States' west coast. We then used linear models to explore the relationships between snowpack, potential evapotranspiration and other climate-related variables with annual low flow volumes and peak water temperatures. We also incorporated previous years' flow volumes into these models to account for groundwater carryover from year to year. We found that annual peak snowpack water storage is a strong predictor of summer low flows in the more arid watersheds studied. This relationship is mediated by atmospheric water demand and carryover subsurface water storage from previous years, such that multi-year droughts with high evapotranspiration lead to especially low flow volumes. We conclude that watershed management to help retain snow and increase baseflows may help counteract some of the streamflow temperature rises expected from a warming climate, especially in arid watersheds.  相似文献   

A stochastic framework for modeling random-sized batch arrivals of sediment particles into open channel flows     

Christina?W.?TsaiEmail authorView author&#;s OrcID profile  Serena?Y.?Hung  Jungsun?Oh 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2018,32(7):1939-1954

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Cryptic metasomatic agent measured in situ in Variscan mantle rocks: Melt inclusions in garnet of eclogite,Granulitgebirge, Germany     

Alessia Borghini  Silvio Ferrero  Patrick J. O’Brien  Oscar Laurent  Christina Günter  Martin A. Ziemann 《Journal of Metamorphic Geology》2020,38(3):207-234

Garnet of eclogite (formerly termed garnet clinopyroxenite) hosted in lenses of orogenic garnet peridotite from the Granulitgebirge, NW Bohemian Massif, contains unique inclusions of granitic melt, now either glassy or crystallized. Analysed glasses and re-homogenized inclusions are hydrous, peraluminous, and enriched in highly incompatible elements characteristic of the continental crust such as Cs, Li, B, Pb, Rb, Th, and U. The original melt thus represents a pristine, chemically evolved metasomatic agent, which infiltrated the mantle via deep continental subduction during the Variscan orogeny. The bulk chemical composition of the studied eclogites is similar to that of Fe-rich basalt and the enrichment in LILE and U suggest a subduction-related component. All these geochemical features confirm metasomatism. In comparison with many other garnet+clinopyroxene-bearing lenses in peridotites of the Bohemian Massif, the studied samples from Rubinberg and Klatschmühle are more akin to eclogite than pyroxenites, as reflected in high jadeite content in clinopyroxene, relatively low Mg, Cr, and Ni but relatively high Ti. However, trace elements of both bulk rock and individual mineral phases show also important differences making these samples rather unique. Metasomatism involving a melt requiring a trace element pattern very similar to the composition reported here has been suggested for the source region of rocks of the so-called durbachite suite, that is, ultrapotassic melanosyenites, which are found throughout the high-grade Variscan basement. Moreover, the Th, U, Pb, Nb, Ta, and Ti patterns of these newly studied melt inclusions (MI) strongly resemble those observed for peridotite and its enclosed pyroxenite from the T-7 borehole (Staré, České Středhoři Mountains) in N Bohemia. This suggests that a similar kind of crustal-derived melt also occurred here. This study of granitic MI in eclogites from peridotites has provided the first direct characterization of a preserved metasomatic melt, possibly responsible for the metasomatism of several parts of the mantle in the Variscides.  相似文献   

Middle Pleistocene environments,landscapes and tephrostratigraphy of the Armenian Highlands: evidence from Bird Farm 1, Hrazdan Valley     

Jenni E. Sherriff  Keith N. Wilkinson  Poppy Harding  Hayley Hawkins  Rhys G. O. Timms  Daniel S. Adler  Emily J. Beverly  Simon P. E. Blockley  Boris Gasparyan  Christina J. Manning  Darren Mark  Samvel Nahapetyan  Katie J. Preece 《第四纪科学杂志》2022,37(1):6-27

The significance of the southern Caucasus in understanding Pleistocene hominin expansions is well established. However, the palaeoenvironments in which Palaeolithic occupation of the region took place are presently poorly defined. The Hrazdan river valley, Armenian Highlands, contains a rich Palaeolithic record alongside Middle Pleistocene volcanic, fluvial and lacustrine strata, and thus offer exciting potential for palaeoenvironmental reconstruction. We present the first results of sedimentological, geochemical, tephrostratigraphical and biological (diatoms) study of the sequence of Bird Farm 1, located in the central part of the valley. These data show six phases of landscape development during the interval 440–200 ka. The sequence represents the first quantitative Pleistocene diatom record from the Armenian Highlands and the southern Caucasus, and indicates the persistence of a deep, stratified lacustrine system, with evidence for changing lake productivity that is tentatively linked to climate. Furthermore, major element chemical characterization of visible and crypto-tephra horizons in the sequence enables the first stages of the development of a regional tephrostratigraphy. Together, the evidence from Bird Farm 1 demonstrates the importance of lacustrine archives in the region for palaeoenvironmental reconstruction and highlights the potential for linkages between archives on both a local and regional scale.  相似文献