Predicting landscape sensitivity to present and future floods in the Pacific Northwest,USA   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

Mohammad Safeeq  Gordon E. Grant  Sarah L. Lewis  Brian Staab 《水文研究》2015,29(26):5337-5353

Floods are the most frequent natural disaster, causing more loss of life and property than any other in the USA. Floods also strongly influence the structure and function of watersheds, stream channels, and aquatic ecosystems. The Pacific Northwest is particularly vulnerable to climatically driven changes in flood frequency and magnitude, because snowpacks that strongly influence flood generation are near the freezing point and thus sensitive to small changes in temperature. To improve predictions of future flooding potential and inform strategies to adapt to these changes, we mapped the sensitivity of landscapes to changes in peak flows due to climate warming across Oregon and Washington. We first developed principal component‐based models for predicting peak flows across a range of recurrence intervals (2‐, 10‐, 25‐, 50‐, and 100‐years) based on historical instantaneous peak flow data from 1000 gauged watersheds in Oregon and Washington. Key predictors of peak flows included drainage area and principal component scores for climate, land cover, soil, and topographic metrics. We then used these regression models to predict future peak flows by perturbing the climate variables based on future climate projections (2020s, 2040s, and 2080s) for the A1B emission scenario. For each recurrence interval, peak flow sensitivities were computed as the ratio of future to current peak flow magnitudes. Our analysis suggests that temperature‐induced changes in snowpack dynamics will result in large (>30–40%) increases in peak flow magnitude in some areas, principally the Cascades, Olympics, and Blue Mountains and parts of the western edge of the Rocky Mountains. Flood generation processes in lower elevation areas are less likely to be affected, but some of these areas may be impacted by floodwaters from upstream. These results can assist land, water, and infrastructure managers in identifying watersheds and resources that are particularly vulnerable to increased peak flows and developing plans to increase their resilience. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Niche partitioning between invasive and native corixids (Hemiptera,Corixidae) in south-west Spain     

Cristina Coccia  Brian Fry  Francisco Ramírez  Luz Boyero  Stuart E. Bunn  Carmen Diz-Salgado  Mark Walton  Lewis Le Vay  Andy J. Green 《Aquatic Sciences - Research Across Boundaries》2016,78(4):779-791

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Estimating Aquifer Properties Using Derivative Analysis of Water Level Time Series from Active Well Fields          下载免费PDF全文

Alan R. Lewis  Michael J. Ronayne  Thomas C. Sale 《Ground water》2016,54(3):414-424

Water level time series from groundwater production wells offer a transient dataset that can be used to estimate aquifer properties in areas with active groundwater development. This article describes a new parameter estimation method to infer aquifer properties from such datasets. Specifically, the method analyzes long‐term water level measurements from multiple, interacting groundwater production wells and relies on temporal water level derivatives to estimate the aquifer transmissivity and storativity. Analytically modeled derivatives are compared to derivatives calculated directly from the observed water level data; an optimization technique is used to identify best‐fitting transmissivity and storativity values that minimize the difference between modeled and observed derivatives. We demonstrate how the consideration of derivative (slope) behavior eliminates uncertainty associated with static water levels and well‐loss coefficients, enabling effective use of water level data from groundwater production wells. The method is applied to time‐series data collected over a period of 6 years from a municipal well field operating in the Denver Basin, Colorado (USA). The estimated aquifer properties are shown to be consistent with previously published values. The parameter estimation method is further tested using synthetic water level time series generated with a numerical model that incorporates the style of heterogeneity that occurs in the Denver Basin sandstone aquifers.  相似文献   

Analysis of groundwater exchange for a large plains river in Colorado (USA)     

Arne Sjodin  William M. Lewis  James F. Saunders 《水文研究》2001,15(4):609-620

Complete daily water budget information was assembled for a 105 km segment of the South Platte River in the plains region below Denver, CO, for the period 1983–1993. The data were used in testing the possibility that dependence of alluvial exchange mechanisms on stage height, as shown by models of alluvial exchange, allows alluvial exchange to be predicted continuously over a given reach through use of statistical information on river discharge. The study segment was divided into an upper and a lower reach; daily alluvial exchanges for each reach were estimated by the method of residuals. The two reaches show small (15%) but statistically significant annual differences in rates of exchange. For each reach, there is a seasonal pattern (2·5‐fold oscillation) in alluvial discharge to the channel, reflecting seasonality in recharge of the alluvium by irrigation. At discharges up to 40 m³/s (82nd percentile), alluvial discharge to the channel occurs at a rate independent of river discharge. Above 40 m³/s, net alluvial discharge into the channel is progressively reduced; at 60 m³/s (92nd percentile) there is no net alluvial exchange. At still higher river discharges, water is lost to the alluvium through bank storage at a rate that is linearly related to the logarithm of discharge. Annually, alluvial discharge accounts for 15–18% of water entering the study segment, and alluvial recharge through bank storage accounts for 2–4% of water leaving the segment. Alluvial recharge through bank storage at the highest discharges can, however, exceed low‐flow alluvial discharge rates by five‐fold over short intervals. Even though daily alluvial exchanges vary widely, they can be estimated at r² values above 80% on the basis of reach, season, and river discharge. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Trace-element concentrations in single circumstellar silicon carbide grains from the Murchison meteorite     

Sachiko Amari  Peter Hoppe  Ernst Zinner  Roy S. Lewis 《Meteoritics & planetary science》1995,30(6):679-693

Abstract— Concentrations of the trace elements Mg, Al, Ca, Ti, V, Fe, Sr, Y, Zr, Ba and Ce were determined by ion microprobe mass spectrometry in 60 individual silicon carbide (SiC) grains (in addition, Nb and Nd were determined in 20 of them), from separate KJH (size range 3.4–5.9 μm) of the Murchison carbonaceous meteorite, whose C-, N- and Si-isotopic compositions have been measured before (Hoppe et al., 1994) and provide evidence that these grains are of stellar origin. The selected SiC grains represent all previously recognized subgroups: mainstream (20 < ¹²C/¹³C < 120; 200 < ¹⁴N/¹⁵N; Si isotopes on slope 1.34 line), grains A (¹²C/¹³C < 3.5), grains B (3.5 < ¹²C/¹³C < 10), grains X (¹⁵N excesses, large ²⁸Si excesses) and grains Y (150 < ¹²C/¹³C < 260; Si isotopes on slope 0.35 line). Data on these grains are compared with measurements on fine-grained SiC fractions. Trace-element patterns reflect both the condensation behavior of individual elements and the source composition of the stellar atmospheres. A detailed discussion of the condensation of trace elements in SiC from C-rich stellar atmospheres is given in a companion paper by Lodders and Fegley (1995). Elements such as Mg, Al, Ca, Fe and Sr are depleted because their compounds are more volatile than SiC. Elements whose compounds are believed to be more refractory than SiC can also be depleted due to condensation and removal prior to SiC condensation. Among the refractory elements, however, the heavy elements from Y to Ce (and Nd) are systematically enriched relative to Ti and V, indicating enrichments by up to a factor of 14 of the s-process elements relative to elements lighter than Fe. Such enrichments are expected if N-type carbon stars (thermally pulsing AGB stars) are the main source of circumstellar SiC grains. Large grains are less enriched than small grains, possibly because they are from different AGB stars. The trace-element patterns of subgroups such as groups A and B and grains X can at least qualitatively be understood if grains A and B come from J-type carbon stars (known to be lacking in s-process enhancements shown by N-type carbon stars) or carbon stars that had not experienced much dredge-up of He-shell material and if grains X come from supernovae. However, a remaining puzzle is how stars become carbon stars without much accompanying dredge-up of s-process elements.  相似文献   

An acceleration scheme for the simulation of long term climate evolution     

Z. Liu  W. Lewis  A. Ganopolski 《Climate Dynamics》2004,22(6-7):771-781

An acceleration scheme is proposed in a coupled ocean-atmosphere model for the simulation of long term climate evolutions forced by climate forcing of longer than millennia time scales. In this coordinated acceleration scheme, both the surface forcing and the deep ocean are accelerated simultaneously by the same factor. The acceleration scheme is evaluated in a 3-dimensional ocean general circulation model and in a coupled ocean-atmosphere model of intermediate complexity. For millennial climate evolution, our acceleration scheme produces reasonably good simulations with an acceleration factor of about 5. For climate evolution of even longer time scales, the acceleration factor can be increased further.  相似文献   

CHEMICAL ANALYSES OF THIRTY-EIGHT IRON METEORITES*     

Charles F. Lewis  Carleton B. Moore 《Meteoritics & planetary science》1971,6(3):195-205

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Interstellar graphite in meteorites: Isotopic compositions and structural properties of single graphite grains from Murchison     

Ernst Zinner  Sachiko Amari  Brigitte Wopenka  Roy S. Lewis 《Meteoritics & planetary science》1995,30(2):209-226

Abstract— One hundred forty-three carbon grains, ranging in size from 2 to 8 μm, from two chemical and physical separates from the Murchison CM2 chondrite, were analyzed by ion microprobe mass spectrometry for their C- and N-isotopic compositions. Both separates are enriched in the exotic noble gas component Ne-E(L). Ninety grains were also analyzed for their H and O contents and 118, for Si. Thirteen grains were analyzed by micro-sampling laser Raman spectroscopy. Round grains have large C-isotopic anomalies with ¹²C/¹³C ratios ranging from 7 to 4500 (terrestrial ratio = 89). Nitrogen in these grains is also anomalous but shows much smaller deviations from the terrestrial composition, ¹⁴N/¹⁵N ratios ranging from 193 to 680 (terrestrial ratio = 272). Spherulitic aggregates and non-round compact grains have normal C-isotopic ratios but ¹⁵N excesses (up to 35%). Raman spectra of the analyzed grains indicate varying degrees of crystalline disorder of graphite with estimated in-plane crystallite dimensions varying from 18 Å (highly disordered, similar to terrestrial kerogen) to ～750 Å (well-crystallized graphite). Element contents of H, O, and Si are correlated with one another, and H and O are probably present in the form of organic molecules. On the basis of morphology, the round grains fall into two groups: grains with smooth, shell-like surfaces (“onions”) and grains that appear to be dense aggregates of small scales (“cauliflowers”). “Onions” tend to have lower trace element contents, isotopically light C (¹²C/¹³C > 89) and a high degree of crystalline order, whereas “cauliflowers” have a larger spread in trace element contents and C-isotopic ratios (they range from isotopically light to heavy) but tend to have a low degree of crystalline order. However, these differences exist only on average, and no clear distinction can be made for individual grains. A few limited conclusions can be drawn about the astrophysical origin of the carbon grains of this study. The ¹⁵N excesses in spherulitic aggregates and non-round grains can be explained as the result of ion-molecule reactions in molecular clouds. The round grains, on the other hand, must have formed in stellar atmospheres (circumstellar grains). Grains with isotopically light C must have formed in stellar environments characterized by He-burning, either in the atmosphere of Wolf-Rayet stars during the WC phase or in the He-burning, ¹²C-rich zone of a massive star, ejected by a supernova explosion. Isotopically heavy C is produced by H-burning in the CNO cycle. Possible sources for grains with heavy C are carbon stars (AGB stars during the thermally pulsing phase) or novae, but the detailed distribution of ¹²C/¹³C ratios agree neither with the distribution observed in carbon stars nor with theoretical predictions for these two types of stellar sources.  相似文献   

Magnetic Reversal Phenomena in Pyrrhotite     

V. L. S. Bhimasankaram  M. Lewis 《Geophysical Journal International》1966,11(5):485-497

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SULFUR IN ACHONDRITIC METEORITES     

Everett K. Gibson  Carleton B. Moore  Thomas M. Primus  Charles F. Lewis 《Meteoritics & planetary science》1985,20(3):503-511

Total sulfur abundances have been measured for 48 achondrites. For twenty eucrites they ranged from 370 to 3700 μgS/g with a median sulfur content of 1180 μgS/g. Sulfur abundances for howardites ranged from 1490 to 3240 μgS/g and had a median sulfur concentration of 2340 μgS/g. Diogenites' sulfur abundances ranged from 130 to 3170 μgS/g, with a median value of 1280 μgS/g. Four shergottites had a median sulfur content of 1940 μgS/g and ranged from 740 to 2540 μgS/g. Enstatite achondrites contained the greatest sulfur abundances of any achondrite group. They ranged from 2450 to 8580 μgS/g and had a median sulfur content of 6020 μgS/g. A single Chassignite had a sulfur concentration of 360 μgS/g. The wide variations in sulfur concentrations for the achondrites reflect the small scale heterogeneous nature of these unique extraterrestrial materials due in large part to discrete sulfide mineral grains.  相似文献