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41.
Holocene sediments in Lake Winnipeg are expressed in the lower Lake Agassiz sequence which is unconformably overlain by the Lake Winnipeg sequence. Nine sites, covering the North and South basins and the connecting Narrows, were selected for analysis of Holocene changes in thecamoebian faunae. Only the Lake Winnipeg sequence contains thecamoebians. This study indicates that biologic productivity and consequently the type of organic material in the sediments is the main control on thecamoebian taxa in Lake Winnipeg. Other factors controlling the distribution of thecamoebians are water chemistry and turbidity. Inorganic sediment geochemistry and water temperature do not appear to significantly influence the thecamoebian fauna of Lake Winnipeg. Variations in the abundance of key thecamoebian species along a north-south transect divide Lake Winnipeg into three distinct areas. The North Basin has remained relatively unchanged since the retreat of Lake Agassiz as indicated by the domination of Difflugia manicata throughout its history. This species appears to prefer Cyanophyta and diatoms as its food source. In the Narrows harsh conditions created by turbid waters and lack of algal food taxa result in Centropyxis aculeata replacing Difflugia manicata as the dominant species. In the South Basin three thecamoebian assemblages are recognized. Cucurbitella tricuspis, indicative of eutrophic conditions, dominates the most recent sediments of the South Basin. The underlying sediments are characterized by Difflugia globulus. In Lake Winnipeg this species is not a cold climate (arctic) indicator as suggested elsewhere but instead seems to prefer sediments containing green and yellow-green algal material. A Centropyxis-Arcella Assemblage occurs only at the base of the southernmost core where it is indicative of an early phase of hyposaline conditions as developed in shallow pools during the southward transgression of Lake Winnipeg. This study illustrates the usefulness of thecamoebians as paleolimnological indicators. Environmental changes are more significant in the restricted South Basin resulting in distinct thecamoebian assemblages. In contrast, the North Basin provided a stable environment throughout the late Holocene reflected in only subtle faunal changes.  相似文献   
42.
Sediments are the ultimate sink for contaminants in the marine environment, and physical processes of sedimentation influence the distribution and accumulation of these contaminants. Evaluation of contaminant levels in sediments is one approach to assessing environmental impact; data interpretation depends on consideration of sediment texture and mineralogy, however, which profoundly influence chemical composition. In this study, comparison of potentially contaminated sediments from the production field with control populations was done only within the context of similar (as to texture and organic carbon and carbonate content) sample groups as determined by cluster analysis. Ba, Cd, and Sr are identified as contaminants. Supported by the identification of a well-crystallized expandable clay—possibly bentonite—drilling fluids are a potential source of Ba. Ba and Sr may be unnaturally high because of their abundance in discharged produced formation waters, but may also be naturally controlled by the unique faunal assemblage associated with the structures. Cd is probably derived from corrosion of the structures and assorted debris on the seafloor. In general, contamination is limited to an area within 100 m of the platforms. Furthermore, substantial erosion around platforms has probably effectively removed and dispersed the bulk of the contaminants introduced into the marine environment by the offshore exploration/production operations.  相似文献   
43.
High-resolution proxy records from the circum-Caribbean region indicate significant variation in Late Holocene climate, especially precipitation, attributed primarily to shifts in the mean annual position of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). The paleoenvironmental and cultural impacts of this Late-Holocene climate variability have been analyzed intensively in the western Caribbean, and to a lesser extent in the southern Caribbean. However, the occurrence and impacts of Late Holocene climate shifts in the eastern Caribbean, especially in island interiors, has not been well documented. Here we present sediment records of Late-Holocene paleoenvironmental change from two lakes located on the Caribbean slope of the Cordillera Central in the Dominican Republic that span the last ~3000 years. Sediment characteristics, pollen, charcoal, biogenic carbonate assemblages and isotopic composition, and bulk sedimentary carbon isotope values in Laguna Castilla and Laguna de Salvador indicate extreme shifts in hydrology, vegetation, and disturbance regimes in response to climate change and human activity in the lake watersheds. Close correspondence between the hydrological histories of the lakes and trace metal concentrations in sediments of the Cariaco Basin indicate that precipitation variability here responds to the same controls, and may similarly reflect shifts in the mean annual position of the ITCZ. Human occupation of the watersheds appears to be closely linked to severe dry periods and may indicate larger scale cultural responses to precipitation variability on the island of Hispaniola. Prehistoric human populations strongly affected vegetation and disturbance regimes in the lake watersheds. Impacts may have lasted several centuries and may have been more severe than impacts of modern populations.  相似文献   
44.
Past and future sea-level rise along the coast of North Carolina,USA   总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0  
We evaluate relative sea level (RSL) trajectories for North Carolina, USA, in the context of tide-gauge measurements and geological sea-level reconstructions spanning the last ~11,000 years. RSL rise was fastest (~7 mm/yr) during the early Holocene and slowed over time with the end of the deglaciation. During the pre-Industrial Common Era (i.e., 0–1800 CE), RSL rise (~0.7 to 1.1 mm/yr) was driven primarily by glacio-isostatic adjustment, though dampened by tectonic uplift along the Cape Fear Arch. Ocean/atmosphere dynamics caused centennial variability of up to ~0.6 mm/yr around the long-term rate. It is extremely likely (probability P=0.95) that 20th century RSL rise at Sand Point, NC, (2.8 ± 0.5 mm/yr) was faster than during any other century in at least 2,900 years. Projections based on a fusion of process models, statistical models, expert elicitation, and expert assessment indicate that RSL at Wilmington, NC, is very likely (P=0.90) to rise by 42–132 cm between 2000 and 2100 under the high-emissions RCP 8.5 pathway. Under all emission pathways, 21st century RSL rise is very likely (P>0.90) to be faster than during the 20th century. Due to RSL rise, under RCP 8.5, the current ‘1-in-100 year’ flood is expected at Wilmington in ~30 of the 50 years between 2050-2100.  相似文献   
45.
46.
Climate is an important driver of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) dynamics in boreal catchments characterized by networks of streams within forest-wetland landscape mosaics. In this paper, we assess how climate change may affect stream DOC concentrations ([DOC]) and export from boreal forest streams with a multi-model ensemble approach. First, we apply an ensemble of regional climate models (RCMs) to project soil temperatures and stream-flows. These data are then used to drive two biogeochemical models of surface water DOC: (1) The Integrated Catchment model for Carbon (INCA-C), a detailed process-based model of DOC operating at the catchment scale, and (2) The Riparian Integration Model (RIM), a simple dynamic hillslope scale model of stream [DOC]. All RCMs project a consistent increase in temperature and precipitation as well as a shift in spring runoff peaks from May to April. However, they present a considerable range of possible future runoff conditions with an ensemble median increase of 31 % between current and future (2061–2090) conditions. Both biogeochemical models perform well in describing the dynamics of present-day stream [DOC] and fluxes, but disagree in their future projections. Here, we assess possible futures in three boreal catchments representative of forest, mire and mixed landscape elements. INCA-C projects a wider range of stream [DOC] due to its temperature sensitivity, whereas RIM gives consistently larger inter-annual variation and a wider range of exports due to its sensitivity to hydrological variations. The uncertainties associated with modeling complex processes that control future DOC dynamics in boreal and temperate catchments are still the main limitation to our understanding of DOC mechanisms under changing climate conditions. Novel, currently overlooked or unknown drivers may appear that will present new challenges to modelling DOC in the future.  相似文献   
47.
We review the ideas behind the pattern scaling technique, and focus on its value and limitations given its use for impact assessment and within integrated assessment models. We present estimates of patterns for temperature and precipitation change from the latest transient simulations available from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), focusing on multi-model mean patterns, and characterizing the sources of variability of these patterns across models and scenarios. The patterns are compared to those obtained from the previous set of experiments, under CMIP3. We estimate the significance of the emerging differences between CMIP3 and CMIP5 results through a bootstrap exercise, while also taking into account the fundamental differences in scenario and model ensemble composition. All in all, the robustness of the geographical features in patterns of temperature and precipitation, when computed as multi-model means, is confirmed by this comparison. The intensity of the change (in both the warmer and cooler areas with respect to global temperature change, and the drier and wetter regions) is overall heightened per degree of global warming in the ensemble mean of the new simulations. The presence of stabilized scenarios in the new set of simulations allows investigation of the performance of the technique once the system has gotten close to equilibrium. Overall, the well established validity of the technique in approximating the forced signal of change under increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases is confirmed.  相似文献   
48.
The use of real-time landslide early warning systems is attracting the attention of the scientific community, since it allows to assess “where” and “when” a shallow rainfall-induced landslide might occur by coupling rainfall amounts, hydrological models and slope-stability analysis. The paper deals with the main results of a back analysis, which refers to the application of a physically based stability model [Shallow Landslides Instability Prediction (SLIP)] on regional scale. The analysis concerns the occurrence of some recent rainfall-induced shallow landslides in the municipal territory of Broni, in the area of Oltrepò Pavese (Northern Italy). The study area is a hilly region 2.4 km2 wide, where more than 40 % of the territory has slopes steeper than 15° and altitudes are between 90 and 250 m a.s.l. As regards the geologic setting, clayey-silty shallow colluvial deposits, with a maximum thickness of about 3 m, overlap a bedrock made of clayey shales, calcareous flysch and marls. The SLIP model is based on the limit equilibrium method applied to an infinite slope and on the Mohr–Coulomb strength criterion for the soil. By assuming that the main hydro-geotechnical process that leads to failure is the saturation of parts of the soil, the model allows to take into account the condition of partial saturation of the soil. The safety factor (F S ) of a slope is also function of previous rainfalls. After the implementation of the model at territory scale, the input data have been introduced through a geographic information systems platform. In the current paper we mainly intend to evaluate the performance of SLIP at catchment scale, by comparison to (1) observed landslide events and (2) another well-established physically based model (TRIGRS). Further, we want to assess the suitability of the model as early warning tool. The results produced by the model are analyzed both in terms of safety factor maps, corresponding to some particular rainfall events, and in terms of the time-varying percentage of unstable areas over a 2-year span period. The paper shows the comparison between observed landslide localizations and model predictions. A quantitative comparison between the SLIP model and TRIGRS is presented, only for the most important event that occurred during the analyzed period. Overall, the results of the stability analyses based on observed rainfalls show the capability of the SLIP model to predict, in real-time and on a wide area, the occurrence of the analyzed phenomena.  相似文献   
49.
A new method to detect and study young star clusters is presented. This is based on the knowledge that the light of stellar populations with ages between ∼ 200 Myr and ∼ 1/2 Gyr is dominated by very red, bright AGB stars. Star clusters undergoing this so-called ‘AGB phase transition’ are featured by very red V-K colours, like those of Magellanic Clouds clusters, while optical colours like B-V remain blue typical for young populations. The best channel for detecting star clusters in this age range is therefore the near IR. From the theoretical side, SSP models including properly the contribution of the bright AGB are required (Maraston, 1998). Using this strategy, we succesfully detected the AGB phase transition among the clusters of the merger remnant galaxy NGC 7252 (see Maraston etal., 2001). This revised version was published online in September 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.  相似文献   
50.
In this paper, the methods of digital rock physics are applied to determine pressure-dependent effective thermal conductivity in rock samples. Simulations are performed with an in-house three-dimensional finite volume code. In the first step, four numerical models are derived from a given tomographic scan of Berea sandstone. Consequently, simulations of the thermal conductivity at ambient conditions are performed and validated with experimental data. In a second step, a new workflow for the determination of the pressure-dependent thermal conductivity in rock samples is elaborated, tested and calibrated. Results originating from the derived workflow show very good agreement with experimental data.  相似文献   
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