Preparing for climate change in Washington State     

Lara C. Whitely Binder  Jennifer Krencicki Barcelos  Derek B. Booth  Meriel Darzen  Marketa McGuire Elsner  Richard Fenske  Thomas F. Graham  Alan F. Hamlet  John Hodges-Howell  J. Elizabeth Jackson  Catherine Karr  Patrick W. Keys  Jeremy S. Littell  Nathan Mantua  Jennifer Marlow  Don McKenzie  Michael Robinson-Dorn  Eric A. Rosenberg  Claudio O. Stöckle  Julie A. Vano 《Climatic change》2010,102(1-2):351-376

Climate change is expected to bring potentially significant changes to Washington State’s natural, institutional, cultural, and economic landscape. Addressing climate change impacts will require a sustained commitment to integrating climate information into the day-to-day governance and management of infrastructure, programs, and services that may be affected by climate change. This paper discusses fundamental concepts for planning for climate change and identifies options for adapting to the climate impacts evaluated in the Washington Climate Change Impacts Assessment. Additionally, the paper highlights potential avenues for increasing flexibility in the policies and regulations used to govern human and natural systems in Washington.  相似文献   

Potential changes in extremes and links with the Southern Annular Mode as simulated by a multi-model ensemble     

Claudio G. Menéndez  Andrea F. Carril 《Climatic change》2010,98(3-4):359-377

We assess the likely changes in climate extremes under enhanced greenhouse gases over the southern extratropics, with emphasis in southern South America and sub-Antarctic seas, through the analysis of extreme indices measured from models participating in the IPCC 4th Assessment Report. We discuss how the anthropogenic climate change under A1B scenario influences both the patterns of mean change of extreme indices and the likelihood of occurrence of severe extreme indices. The likelihood of occurrence of a year with a large number of days with “warm” minimum temperatures is estimated to increase by a factor of 4 by the end of this century over most of the southern extratropics. By that time, the risk of “severe” precipitation intensity is projected to rise in most areas with the exception of the subtropical anticyclones, which experience particularly strong drying. Over the Southern Ocean this likelihood has increased to over 60%. Corresponding estimates of the changing likelihood for very long dry spells show a banded structure with positive ratios to the north of about 50° S and negative ratios in the sub Antarctic seas. In southern South America this risk about doubled between present and future climates. Then, we explore if the Southern Annular Mode influences the occurrence of severe extreme indices during the period 2070–2099. Its positive phase inhibits the extremely warm minimum temperatures in the Southern Ocean, with the exception of the eastern Bellingshausen Sea, and favors severe frost days to the north of the Ross Sea. Temperature indices show very little change induced by the SAM to the north of 50° S. Severe dry spells are inhibited during the positive phase along the sub Antarctic seas, while the mid-latitudes, including most of Patagonia, show the opposite behaviour. The Southern Ocean reveals a non-uniform distribution with both increases and decreases in the occurrence of heavier precipitation during positive SAM.  相似文献   

1999年欧洲圣诞节风暴数值模拟分析     

Claudio Cassardo  ;Nicola Loglisci  ;Min Wei Qian  ;Silvia Ferrarese  ;Arnaldo Longhetto  ;Gianpaolo Balsamo 《气象与减灾研究》2008,31(2):6-13

对1999年圣诞期间发生在欧洲中西部的圣诞节风暴进行了分析,认为4个主要的低气压系统中的第二个给法国北部带来了强风暴雨,巴黎的Orly机场阵风速度〉47m／s;第四个低压系统沿法国西海岸产生相似的恶劣天气,并在西班牙的北部海岸及地中海沿岸国家造成了毁灭性的破坏。在法国中部风暴最剧烈的时候,最大阵风〉41m／s;在法国和德国之间的区域,达55m／s。圣诞节风暴造成欧洲国家大约140人死亡,其他损失包括树木、街道和房屋被毁,电力系统和电话中断时间长达数天,受影响的人数大约为1000万,财产损失大约为80亿美元。由于风暴的极端强度和快速发展速度,欧洲大多数国家的数值预报中心没有对这次剧烈天气提供足够的预警。为此,利用中尺度数值预报系统（RAMS）模拟圣诞节风暴,并与ECMWF分析资料以及实况观测资料进行了对比分析。结果表明,RAMS模式能够准确模拟风暴的主要特性、低气压的演变和位置移动、发展的关键时间点、风暴演化期间的平均风场;模拟的平均风场和气象观测网的观测结果相一致;模拟的风暴移动时间和主要新闻媒体的报道相吻合;模式计算的一些特定地区平均风速的时间趋势显示,在阿尔卑斯山脉地区,无论是上风区还是下风区,风暴的时间都被准确地预测;模拟的第一次风暴最低气压值较实际值偏低。  相似文献   

N-body simulations for testing the stability of triaxial galaxies in MOND     

Xufen Wu  HongSheng Zhao  Yougang Wang  Claudio Llinares  Alexander Knebe 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2009,396(1):109-120

We perform a stability test of triaxial models in Modified Newtonian Dynamics (MOND) using N -body simulations. The triaxial models considered here have densities that vary with   r ⁻¹  in the centre and   r ⁻⁴  at large radii. The total mass of the model varies from 10⁸ to  10¹⁰ M_⊙  , representing the mass scale of dwarfs to medium-mass elliptical galaxies, respectively, from deep MOND to quasi-Newtonian gravity. We build triaxial galaxy models using the Schwarzschild technique, and evolve the systems for 200 Keplerian dynamical times (at the typical length-scale of 1.0 kpc). We find that the systems are virial overheating, and in quasi-equilibrium with the relaxation taking approximately 5 Keplerian dynamical times (1.0 kpc). For all systems, the change of the inertial (kinetic) energy is less than 10 per cent (20 per cent) after relaxation. However, the central profile of the model is flattened during the relaxation and the (overall) axis ratios change by roughly 10 per cent within 200 Keplerian dynamical times (at 1.0 kpc) in our simulations. We further find that the systems are stable once they reach the equilibrium state.  相似文献   

Galaxies–intergalactic medium interaction calculation – I. Galaxy formation as a function of large-scale environment     

Robert A. Crain  Tom Theuns  Claudio Dalla Vecchia  Vincent R. Eke  Carlos S. Frenk  Adrian Jenkins  Scott T. Kay  John A. Peacock  Frazer R. Pearce  Joop Schaye  Volker Springel  Peter A. Thomas  Simon D. M. White  Robert P. C. Wiersma 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2009,399(4):1773-1794

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Geometric interpretation for the spectral stability in the charged three-body problem     

José E. Mansilla  Claudio Vidal 《Celestial Mechanics and Dynamical Astronomy》2012,113(2):205-213

We present a geometric interpretation of the spectral stability of the triangular libration points in the charged three-body problem. We obtain that the spectral stability varies with the position of the center of mass of the three charges with respect to the circumcenter of the triangle configuration, which does not depend directly of the charges. If the center of mass is outside or on the circumference of a well defined radius ??, then spectral stability occurs. In addition, we analyze the existence of resonances within the spectral region of stability under this geometric interpretation, determining resonance curves of order 2, 3, 4, . . ., some of them with multiple resonances.  相似文献   

Historical behaviour of Dome C and Talos Dome (East Antarctica) as investigated by snow accumulation and ice velocity measurements     

Stefano Urbini  Massimo Frezzotti  Stefano Gandolfi  Christian Vincent  Claudio Scarchilli  Luca Vittuari  Michel Fily 《Global and Planetary Change》2008,60(3-4):576-588

Ice divide–dome behaviour is used for ice sheet mass balance studies and interpretation of ice core records. In order to characterize the historical behaviour (last 400 yr) of Dome C and Talos Dome (East Antarctica), ice velocities have been measured since 1996 using a GPS system, and the palaeo-spatial variability of snow accumulation has been surveyed using snow radar and firn cores. The snow accumulation distribution of both domes indicates distributions of accumulation that are non-symmetrical in relation to dome morphology. Changes in spatial distributions have been observed over the last few centuries, with a decrease in snow accumulation gradient along the wind direction at Talos Dome and a counter-clockwise rotation of accumulation distribution in the northern part of Dome C. Observations at Dome C reveal a significant increase in accumulation since the 1950s, which could correlate to altered snow accumulation patterns due to changes in snowfall trajectory. Snow accumulation mechanisms are different at the two domes: a wind-driven snow accumulation process operates at Talos Dome, whereas snowfall trajectory direction is the main factor at Dome C. Repeated GPS measurements made at Talos Dome have highlighted changes in ice velocity, with a deceleration in the NE portion, acceleration in the SW portion and migration of dome summit, which are apparently correlated with changes in accumulation distribution. The observed behaviour in accumulation and velocity indicates that even the most remote areas of East Antarctica have changed from a decadal to secular scale.  相似文献