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41.
As competition for increasingly scarce ground water resources grows, many decision makers may come to rely upon rigorous multiobjective techniques to help identify appropriate and defensible policies, particularly when disparate stakeholder groups are involved. In this study, decision analysis was conducted on a public water supply wellfield to balance water supply needs with well vulnerability to contamination from a nearby ground water contaminant plume. With few alternative water sources, decision makers must balance the conflicting objectives of maximizing water supply volume from noncontaminated wells while minimizing their vulnerability to contamination from the plume. Artificial neural networks (ANNs) were developed with simulation data from a numerical ground water flow model developed for the study area. The ANN-derived state transition equations were embedded into a multiobjective optimization model, from which the Pareto frontier or trade-off curve between water supply and wellfield vulnerability was identified. Relative preference values and power factors were assigned to the three stakeholders, namely the company whose waste contaminated the aquifer, the community supplied by the wells, and the water utility company that owns and operates the wells. A compromise pumping policy that effectively balances the two conflicting objectives in accordance with the preferences of the three stakeholder groups was then identified using various distance-based methods. 相似文献
42.
Statistical bias correction for daily precipitation in regional climate models over Europe 总被引：17，自引：2，他引：15
We design, apply, and validate a methodology for correcting climate model output to produce internally consistent fields that have the same statistical intensity distribution as the observations. We refer to this as a statistical bias correction. Validation of the methodology is carried out using daily precipitation fields, defined over Europe, from the ENSEMBLES climate model dataset. The bias correction is calculated using data from 1961 to 1970, without distinguishing between seasons, and applied to seasonal data from 1991 to 2000. This choice of time periods is made to maximize the lag between calibration and validation within the ERA40 reanalysis period. Results show that the method performs unexpectedly well. Not only are the mean and other moments of the intensity distribution improved, as expected, but so are a drought and a heavy precipitation index, which depend on the autocorrelation spectra. Given that the corrections were derived without seasonal distinction and are based solely on intensity distributions, a statistical quantity oblivious of temporal correlations, it is encouraging to find that the improvements are present even when seasons and temporal statistics are considered. This encourages the application of this method to multi-decadal climate projections. 相似文献
43.
K.O. Buesseler C.R. Benitez-Nelson S.B. Moran A. Burd M. Charette J.K. Cochran L. Coppola N.S. Fisher S.W. Fowler W.D. Gardner L.D. Guo
. Gustafsson C. Lamborg P. Masque J.C. Miquel U. Passow P.H. Santschi N. Savoye G. Stewart T. Trull 《Marine Chemistry》2006,100(3-4):213
Thorium-234 is increasingly used as a tracer of ocean particle flux, primarily as a means to estimate particulate organic carbon export from the surface ocean. This requires determination of both the 234Th activity distribution (in order to calculate 234Th fluxes) and an estimate of the C / 234Th ratio on sinking particles, to empirically derive C fluxes. In reviewing C / 234Th variability, results obtained using a single sampling method show the most predictable behavior. For example, in most studies that employ in situ pumps to collect size fractionated particles, C / 234Th either increases or is relatively invariant with increasing particle size (size classes > 1 to 100s μm). Observations also suggest that C / 234Th decreases with depth and can vary significantly between regions (highest in blooms of large diatoms and highly productive coastal settings). Comparisons of C fluxes derived from 234Th show good agreement with independent estimates of C flux, including mass balances of C and nutrients over appropriate space and time scales (within factors of 2–3). We recommend sampling for C / 234Th from a standard depth of 100 m, or at least one depth below the mixed layer using either large volume size fractionated filtration to capture the rarer large particles, or a sediment trap or other device to collect sinking particles. We also recommend collection of multiple 234Th profiles and C / 234Th samples during the course of longer observation periods to better sample temporal variations in both 234Th flux and the characteristic of sinking particles. We are encouraged by new technologies which are optimized to more reliably sample truly settling particles, and expect the utility of this tracer to increase, not just for upper ocean C fluxes but for other elements and processes deeper in the water column. 相似文献
44.
Application of Artificial Neural Networks to Complex Groundwater Management Problems 总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4
Coppola Emery Poulton Mary Charles Emmanuel Dustman John Szidarovszky Ferenc 《Natural Resources Research》2003,12(4):303-320
As water quantity and quality problems become increasingly severe, accurate prediction and effective management of scarcer water resources will become critical. In this paper, the successful application of artificial neural network (ANN) technology is described for three types of groundwater prediction and management problems. In the first example, an ANN was trained with simulation data from a physically based numerical model to predict head (groundwater elevation) at locations of interest under variable pumping and climate conditions. The ANN achieved a high degree of predictive accuracy, and its derived state-transition equations were embedded into a multiobjective optimization formulation and solved to generate a trade-off curve depicting water supply in relation to contamination risk. In the second and third examples, ANNs were developed with real-world hydrologic and climate data for different hydrogeologic environments. For the second problem, an ANN was developed using data collected for a 5-year, 8-month period to predict heads in a multilayered surficial and limestone aquifer system under variable pumping, state, and climate conditions. Using weekly stress periods, the ANN substantially outperformed a well-calibrated numerical flow model for the 71-day validation period, and provided insights into the effects of climate and pumping on water levels. For the third problem, an ANN was developed with data collected automatically over a 6-week period to predict hourly heads in 11 high-capacity public supply wells tapping a semiconfined bedrock aquifer and subject to large well-interference effects. Using hourly stress periods, the ANN accurately predicted heads for 24-hour periods in all public supply wells. These test cases demonstrate that the ANN technology can solve a variety of complex groundwater management problems and overcome many of the problems and limitations associated with traditional physically based flow models. 相似文献
45.
Artificial neural networks (ANNs) were developed to accurately predict highly time-variable specific conductance values in an unconfined coastal aquifer. Conductance values in the fresh water lens aquifer change in response to vertical displacements of the brackish zone and fresh water-salt water interface, which are caused by variable pumping and climate conditions. Unlike physical-based models, which require hydrologic parameter inputs, such as horizontal and vertical hydraulic conductivities, porosity, and fluid densities, ANNs can "learn" system behavior from easily measurable variables. In this study, the ANN input predictor variables were initial conductance, total precipitation, mean daily temperature, and total pumping extraction. The ANNs were used to predict salinity (specific conductance) at a single monitoring well located near a high-capacity municipal-supply well over time periods ranging from 30 d to several years. Model accuracy was compared against both measured/interpolated values and predictions were made with linear regression, and in general, excellent prediction accuracy was achieved. For example, although the average percent change of conductance over 90-d periods was 39%, the absolute mean prediction error achieved with the ANN was only 1.1%. The ANNs were also used to conduct a sensitivity analysis that quantified the importance of each of the four predictor variables on final conductance values, providing valuable insights into the dynamics of the system. The results demonstrate that the ANN technology can serve as a powerful and accurate prediction and management tool, minimizing degradation of ground water quality to the extent possible by identifying appropriate pumping policies under variable and/or changing climate conditions. 相似文献
46.
Artificial neural networks (ANNs) were developed for accurately predicting potentiometric surface elevations (monitoring well water level elevations) in a semiconfined glacial sand and gravel aquifer under variable state, pumping extraction, and climate conditions. ANNs "learn" the system behavior of interest by processing representative data patterns through a mathematical structure analogous to the human brain. In this study, the ANNs used the initial water level measurements, production well extractions, and climate conditions to predict the final water level elevations 30 d into the future at two monitoring wells. A sensitivity analysis was conducted with the ANNs that quantified the importance of the various input predictor variables on final water level elevations. Unlike traditional physical-based models, ANNs do not require explicit characterization of the physical system and related physical data. Accordingly, ANN predictions were made on the basis of more easily quantifiable, measured variables, rather than physical model input parameters and conditions. This study demonstrates that ANNs can provide both excellent prediction capability and valuable sensitivity analyses, which can result in more appropriate ground water management strategies. 相似文献
47.
Understanding the causes of slope development, particularly the initiation of movement, requires knowledge of a set of factors (usually associated with groundwater) that are often difficult to determine. To perform a back-analysis of the failure conditions of the silty-clay terrains underlying the monastery of San Francis, which was built on the slope of the Valle della Torre, at Pietrapertosa (Potenza), the slope was analyzed by means of a limit-equilibrium approach, to determine the stability coefficient (F
s) in relation to the pore water pressure regime. It has been possible to apply linear regression to establish a relation between rainfall and fluctuations of the water table in long duration records of both and thus to obtain the amount of rainfall that is likely to correspond to the critical value of the piezometric level at which the weathered silty-clay material will fail. In this way, the difficulty of applying the various simulations that define the complex relationships between water infiltration and water table recharge has been avoided. In the study area, the hydrological behavior of the 12-m thick weathered horizon has been represented by flow lines, which, in section, are equipotential lines parallel to the slope. 相似文献
48.
We consider colloid facilitated radionuclide transport by steady groundwater flow in a heterogeneous porous formation. Radionuclide binding on colloids and soil-matrix is assumed to be kinetically/equilibrium controlled. All reactive parameters are regarded as uniform, whereas the hydraulic log-conductivity is modelled as a stationary random space function (RSF). Colloid-enhanced radionuclide transport is studied by means of spatial moments pertaining to both the dissolved and colloid-bounded concentration. The general expressions of spatial moments for a colloid-bounded plume are presented for the first time, and are discussed in order to show the combined impact of sorption processes as well as aquifer heterogeneity upon the plume migration. For the general case, spatial moments are defined by the aid of two characteristic reaction functions which cannot be expressed analytically. By adopting the approximation for the longitudinal fluid trajectory covariance valid for a flow parallel to the formation bedding suggested by Dagan and Cvetkovic [Dagan G, Cvetkovic V. Spatial Moments of Kinetically Sorbing Plume in a Heterogeneous Aquifers. Water Resour Res 1993;29:4053], we obtain closed form solutions. 相似文献
49.
Rosmeri Porfírio da Rocha Michelle Simões Reboita Lívia Márcia Mosso Dutra Marta Pereira Llopart Erika Coppola 《Climatic change》2014,125(1):95-109
Interannual variability over South America (SA) is mainly controlled by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. This study investigates the ENSO precipitation signal during austral spring (September–October–November-SON) over SA. Three global circulation models-GCMs-(MPI, GFDL and HadGEM2) are used for RegCM4 (Regional Climate Model version 4) downscaling of the present (1975–2005) near-future (2020–2050) and far-future (2070–2098) climates using two greenhouse gas stabilization scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). For the present climate, only HadGEM2 simulates a frequency of El Niño (EN) and La Niña (LN) years similar to the observations. In terms of ENSO frequency changes, only in the far-future RCP8.5 climate there is greater agreement among GCMs, indicating an increase (decrease) of EN (LN) years. In the present climate, validation indicates that only the RegCM4 ensemble mean provides acceptable precipitation biases (smaller than ±20 %) in the two investigated regions. In this period, the GCMs and RegCM4 agree on the relationship between ENSO and precipitation in SA, i.e., both are able to capture the observed regions of positive/negative rainfall anomalies during EN years, with RegCM4 improving on the GCMs’ signal over southeastern SA. For the near and far future climates, in general, the projections indicate an increase (decrease) of precipitation over southeastern SA (northern-northeastern SA). However, the relationship between ENSO and rainfall in most of RegCM4 and GCM members is weaker in the near and far future climates than in the present day climate. This is likely connected with the GCMs’ projection of the more intense ENSO signal displaced to the central basin of Pacific Ocean in the far future compared to present climate. 相似文献
50.
Ecosystem-based management of marine fisheries requires the use of simulation modelling to investigate the system-level impact of candidate fisheries management strategies. However, testing of fundamental assumptions such as system structure or process formulations is rarely done. In this study, we compare the output of three different ecosystem models (Atlantis, Ecopath with Ecosim, and OSMOSE) applied to the same ecosystem (the southern Benguela), to explore which ecosystem effects of fishing are most sensitive to model uncertainty. We subjected the models to two contrasting fishing pressure scenarios, applying high fishing pressure to either small pelagic fish or to adult hake. We compared the resulting model behaviour at a system level, and also at the level of model groups. We analysed the outputs in terms of various commonly used ecosystem indicators, and found some similarities in the overall behaviour of the models, despite major differences in model formulation and assumptions. Direction of change in system-level indicators was consistent for all models under the hake pressure scenario, although discrepancies emerged under the small-pelagic-fish scenario. Studying biomass response of individual model groups was key to understanding more integrated system-level metrics. All three models are based on existing knowledge of the system, and the convergence of model results increases confidence in the robustness of the model outputs. Points of divergence in the model results suggest important areas of future study. The use of feeding guilds to provide indicators for fish species at an aggregated level was explored, and proved to be an interesting alternative to aggregation by trophic level. 相似文献