Limited differences among habitats in deep‐sea macro‐infaunal communities off New Zealand: implications for their vulnerability to anthropogenic disturbance          下载免费PDF全文

Daniel Leduc  Ashley A. Rowden  Malcolm R. Clark  David A. Bowden  Andrew R. Thurber 《Marine Ecology》2016,37(4):845-866

The spread of human activities into the deep sea may pose a high risk to benthic communities and affect ecosystem integrity. The deep sea is characterized by physical and biological heterogeneity and different habitat types are likely to differ in their vulnerability to anthropogenic impacts. However, across‐habitat comparisons are rare, and no comprehensive ecological risk assessment has yet been developed. To address this gap in our knowledge, we compared macro‐infaunal community structure in four habitats (slope, canyons, seamounts and methane seeps) at depths between 700 and 1500 m in the Hikurangi Margin and Bay of Plenty regions off New Zealand. The most striking contrast in community structure was between the two study regions, due to an order of magnitude difference in macro‐infaunal abundance that we believe was caused by differences in surface productivity and food availability at the sea bed. We found differences in structural and functional attributes of macro‐infaunal communities among some habitats in the Hikurangi Margin (slope, canyon and seep), but not in the Bay of Plenty. We posit that differences between canyon and slope communities on the Hikurangi Margin are due to enhanced food availability inside canyons compared with adjacent slope habitats. Seep communities were characterized by elevated abundance of both symbiont‐bearing and heterotrophic taxa, and were the most distinct, and variable, among the habitats that we considered on the Hikurangi Margin. Communities of seamounts were not distinct from slope or canyon communities on the Hikurangi Margin, probably reflecting similar environmental conditions in these habitats. The communities of deep‐sea canyon and seep habitats on the Hikurangi Margin were sufficiently dissimilar from each other and from slope habitats to warrant separate management consideration. By contrast, the low dissimilarity between communities of canyon and slope habitats in the Bay of Plenty suggests that habitat‐based management is not required in this region, for macro‐infauna at least. Although the two study regions share similar species pools, populations of the Hikurangi Margin region may be less vulnerable than the sparser populations of the Bay of Plenty due to the higher availability of potential colonizers and faster population growth. Thus regions, and habitats in some regions, should be subject to separate ecological risk assessment to help identify the key risks and consequences of human activities, and to inform options for reducing or mitigating impacts.  相似文献   

Tectonic Subsidence of California Estuaries Increases Forecasts of Relative Sea-Level Rise     

Alexander Simms  Laura C. Reynolds  Michael Bentz  Angela Roman  Thomas Rockwell  Robert Peters 《Estuaries and Coasts》2016,39(6):1571-1581

Even along the generally uplifting coast of the Pacific US, local geologic structures can cause subsidence. In this study, we quantify Holocene-averaged subsidence rates in four estuaries (Carpinteria Slough, Goleta Slough, Campus Lagoon, and Morro Bay) along the southern and central California coast by comparing radiocarbon-dated estuarine material to a regional sea-level curve. Holocene-averaged rates of vertical motion range from subsidence of 1.4?±?2.4, 1.2±0.4, and 0.4?±?0.3 mm/year in Morro Bay, Carpinteria Slough, and Goleta Slough, respectively, to possible uplift in Campus Lagoon (?0.1?±?0.9 mm/year). The calculated rates of subsidence are of the same magnitude as rates of relative sea-level rise experienced over the late Holocene and effectively double the ongoing rates of relative sea-level rise experienced over the last five decades on other parts of the coast. The difference in rates of vertical motion among these four estuaries is attributed to their geological settings. Estuaries developed in subsiding geological structures such as synclines and fault-bounded basins are subsiding at much higher rates than those developed within flooded river valleys incised into marine terraces. Restoration projects accounting for future sea-level rise must consider the geologic setting of the estuaries and, if applicable, include subsidence in future sea-level rise scenarios, even along the tectonically uplifting US Pacific Coast.  相似文献   

Estuarine Habitat and Demographic Factors Affect Juvenile Chinook (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Oncorhynchus tshawytscha</Emphasis>) Growth Variability in a Large Freshwater Tidal Estuary     

Pascale?A.?L.?GoertlerEmail author  Charles?A.?Simenstad  Daniel?L.?Bottom  Susan?Hinton  Lia?Stamatiou 《Estuaries and Coasts》2016,39(2):542-559

Estuarine rearing has been shown to enhance within watershed biocomplexity and support growth and survival for juvenile salmon (Oncorhynchus sp.). However, less is known about how growth varies across different types of wetland habitats and what explains this variability in growth. We focused on the estuarine habitat use of Columbia River Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha), which are listed under the Endangered Species Act. We employed a generalized linear model (GLM) to test three hypotheses: (1) juvenile Chinook growth was best explained by temporal factors, (2) habitat, or (3) demographic characteristics, such as stock of origin. This study examined estuarine growth rate, incorporating otolith microstructure, individual assignment to stock of origin, GIS habitat mapping, and diet composition along ~130 km of the upper Columbia River estuary. Juvenile Chinook grew on average 0.23 mm/day in the freshwater tidal estuary. When compared to other studies in the basin our growth estimates from the freshwater tidal estuary were similar to estimates in the brackish estuary, but ~4 times slower than those in the plume and upstream reservoirs. However, previous survival studies elucidated a possible tradeoff between growth and survival in the Columbia River basin. Our GLM analysis found that variation in growth was best explained by habitat and an interaction between fork length and month of capture. Juvenile Chinook salmon captured in backwater channel habitats and later in the summer (mid-summer and late summer/fall subyearlings) grew faster than salmon from other habitats and time periods. These findings present a unique example of the complexity of understanding the influences of the many processes that generate variation in growth rate for juvenile anadromous fish inhabiting estuaries.  相似文献   

Forecasting rock slope failure: how reliable and effective are warning systems?     

Martina?S?tteleEmail author  Michael?Krautblatter  Michael?Bründl  Daniel?Straub 《Landslides》2016,13(4):737-750

Warning systems are increasingly applied to reduce damage caused by different magnitudes of rockslides and rockfalls. In an integrated risk-management approach, the optimal risk mitigation strategy is identified by comparing the achieved effectiveness and cost; estimating the reliability of the warning system is the basis for such considerations. Here, we calculate the reliability and effectiveness of the warning system installed in Preonzo prior to a major rockfall in May 2012. “Reliability” is defined as the ability of the warning system to forecast the hazard event and to prevent damage. To be cost-effective, the warning system should forecast an event with a limited number of false alarms to avoid unnecessary costs for intervention measures. The analysis shows that to be reliable, warning systems should be designed as fail-safe constructions. They should incorporate components with low failure probabilities, high redundancy, have low warning thresholds, and additional control systems. In addition, the experts operating the warning system should have limited risk tolerance. In an additional hypothetical probabilistic analysis, we investigate the effect of the risk attitude of the decision makers and of the number of sensors on the probability of detecting the event and initiating a timely evacuation, as well as on the related intervention cost. The analysis demonstrates that quantitative assessments can support the identification of optimal warning system designs and decision criteria.  相似文献   

A robust debris-flow and GLOF risk management strategy for a data-scarce catchment in Santa Teresa,Peru     

Holger Frey  Christian Huggel  Yves Bühler  Daniel Buis  Maria Dulce Burga  Walter Choquevilca  Felipe Fernandez  Javier García Hernández  Claudia Giráldez  Edwin Loarte  Paul Masias  Cesar Portocarrero  Luis Vicuña  Marco Walser 《Landslides》2016,13(6):1493-1507

The town of Santa Teresa (Cusco Region, Peru) has been affected by several large debris-flow events in the recent past, which destroyed parts of the town and resulted in a resettlement of the municipality. Here, we present a risk analysis and a risk management strategy for debris-flows and glacier lake outbursts in the Sacsara catchment. Data scarcity and limited understanding of both physical and social processes impede a full quantitative risk assessment. Therefore, a bottom-up approach is chosen in order to establish an integrated risk management strategy that is robust against uncertainties in the risk analysis. With the Rapid Mass Movement Simulation (RAMMS) model, a reconstruction of a major event from 1998 in the Sacsara catchment is calculated, including a sensitivity analysis for various model parameters. Based on the simulation results, potential future debris-flows scenarios of different magnitudes, including outbursts of two glacier lakes, are modeled for assessing the hazard. For the local communities in the catchment, the hazard assessment is complemented by the analysis of high-resolution satellite imagery and fieldwork. Physical, social, economic, and institutional vulnerability are considered for the vulnerability assessment, and risk is eventually evaluated by crossing the local hazard maps with the vulnerability. Based on this risk analysis, a risk management strategy is developed, consisting of three complementing elements: (i) standardized risk sheets for the communities; (ii) activities with the local population and authorities to increase social and institutional preparedness; and (iii) a simple Early Warning System. By combining scientific, technical, and social aspects, this work is an example of a framework for an integrated risk management strategy in a data scarce, remote mountain catchment in a developing country.  相似文献   

Community‐Derived Standards for LA‐ICP‐MS U‐(Th‐)Pb Geochronology – Uncertainty Propagation,Age Interpretation and Data Reporting          下载免费PDF全文

Matthew S. A. Horstwood  George Gehrels  Simon E. Jackson  Noah M. McLean  Chad Paton  Norman J. Pearson  Keith Sircombe  Paul Sylvester  Pieter Vermeesch  James F. Bowring  Daniel J. Condon  Blair Schoene 《Geostandards and Geoanalytical Research》2016,40(3):311-332

The LA‐ICP‐MS U‐(Th‐)Pb geochronology international community has defined new standards for the determination of U‐(Th‐)Pb ages. A new workflow defines the appropriate propagation of uncertainties for these data, identifying random and systematic components. Only data with uncertainties relating to random error should be used in weighted mean calculations of population ages; uncertainty components for systematic errors are propagated after this stage, preventing their erroneous reduction. Following this improved uncertainty propagation protocol, data can be compared at different uncertainty levels to better resolve age differences. New reference values for commonly used zircon, monazite and titanite reference materials are defined (based on ID‐TIMS) after removing corrections for common lead and the effects of excess ²³⁰Th. These values more accurately reflect the material sampled during the determination of calibration factors by LA‐ICP‐MS analysis. Recommendations are made to graphically represent data only with uncertainty ellipses at 2s and to submit or cite validation data with sample data when submitting data for publication. New data‐reporting standards are defined to help improve the peer‐review process. With these improvements, LA‐ICP‐MS U‐(Th‐)Pb data can be considered more robust, accurate, better documented and quantified, directly contributing to their improved scientific interpretation.  相似文献   

Interaction between scale and scheduling choices in simulations of spatial agents     

Tyler R. Bonnell  Colin A. Chapman  Raja Sengupta 《International journal of geographical information science》2016,30(10):2075-2088

Spatial simulations are a valuable tool in understanding dynamic spatial processes. In developing these simulations, it is often required to make decisions about how to represent features in the environment and how events unfold in time. These spatial and temporal choices have been shown to significantly alter model outcomes, yet their interaction is less well understood. In this paper, we make use of a simple group foraging model and systematically vary how features are represented (cell size of the landscape) as well as how events unfold in time (order in which foragers take action) to better understand their interaction. Our results show similar nonlinear responses to changes in spatial representation found in the literature, and an effect of the order in which agents were processed. There was also a clear interaction between how features are represented and how events unfold in time, where, under certain environmental representations results were found to be more sensitive to the order in which individuals were processed. Furthermore, the effects of feature representation, scheduling of agents, and their interaction were all found to be influenced by the heterogeneity of the spatial surface (food), suggesting that the statistical properties of the underlying spatial variable will additionally play a role. We suggest that navigating these interactions can be facilitated through a better understanding of how these choices affect the decision landscape(s) on which agents operate. Specifically, how changes to representation affect aggregation and resolution of the decision surface, and thereby the degree to which agents interact directly or indirectly. We suggest that the challenges of dealing with spatial representation, scheduling, and their interaction, while building models could also present an opportunity. As explicitly including alternate representations and scheduling choices during model selection can aid in identifying optimal agent–environment representations. Potentially leading to improved insights into the relationships between spatial processes and the environments in which they occur.  相似文献   

Practical Incorporation of Multivariate Parameter Uncertainty in Geostatistical Resource Modeling     

K. Daniel Khan  Clayton V. Deutsch 《Natural Resources Research》2016,25(1):51-70

There is a need to bridge theory and practice for incorporating parameter uncertainty in geostatistical simulation modeling workflows. Simulation workflows are a standard practice in natural resource and recovery modeling, but the incorporation of multivariate parameter uncertainty into those workflows is challenging. However, the objectives can be met without considerable extra effort and programming. The sampling distributions of statistics comprise the core theoretical notion with the addition of the spatial degrees of freedom to account for the redundancy in the spatially correlated data. Prior parameter uncertainty is estimated from multivariate spatial resampling. Simulation-based transfer of prior parameter uncertainty results in posterior distributions which are updated by data conditioning and the model domain extents and configuration. The results are theoretically tractable and practical to achieve, providing realistic assessments of uncertainty by accounting for large-scale parameter uncertainty, which is often the most important component impacting a project. A simulation-based multivariate workflow demonstrates joint modeling of intrinsic shale properties and uncertainty in estimated ultimate recovery in a shale gas project. The multivariate workflow accounts for joint prior parameter uncertainty given the current well locations and results in posterior estimates on global distributions of all modeled properties. This is achieved by transferring the joint prior parameter uncertainty through conditional simulations.  相似文献   

Exploring seven hundred years of transhumance,climate dynamic,fire and human activity through a historical mountain pass in central Spain     

José Antonio López-Sáez  Francisca Alba-Sánchez  Sandra Robles-López  Sebastián Pérez-Díaz  Daniel Abel-Schaad  Silvia Sabariego-Ruiz  Arthur Glais 《山地科学学报》2016,13(7):1139-1153

A high-altitude peat sequence from the heart of the Spanish Central System (Gredos range) was analysed through a multi-proxy approach to determine the sensitivity of high-mountain habitats to climate, fire and land use changes during the last seven hundred years, providing valuable insight into our understanding of the vegetation history and environmental changes in a mountain pass close to a traditional route of transhumance. The pollen data indicate that the vegetation was dominated by shrublands and grasslands with scattered pines in high-mountain areas, while in the valleys cereals, chestnut and olive trees were cultivated. Strong declines of high-mountain pines percentages are recorded at 1540, 1675, 1765, 1835 and 1925 cal AD, which may be related to increasing grazing activities and/or the occurrence of anthropogenic fires. The practice of mountain summer farming and transhumance deeply changed and redesigned the landscape of the high altitudes in central Spain (Gredos range) since the Middle Ages, although its dynamics was influenced in some way by climate variability of the past seven centuries.  相似文献   

A bridge over troubled water: A contextual analysis of social vulnerability to climate change in a riverine landscape in south-east Norway     

Vegard Gundersen  Bjørn Petter Kaltenborn  Daniel R. Williams 《Norsk geografisk tidsskrift. Norwegian journal of geography》2016,70(4):216-229

Local communities in the Gudbrandsdalen region in Norway are increasingly exposed to climate-induced hazards such as floods and landslides. A core question is how community members respond to climate change and what factors contribute to more resilient communities. The authors used a contextual approach to analyze data from semi-structured interviews along five dimensions. In Gaustad Muncipality they found that individuals’ motivation to adapt to climate change depended largely on subjective values such as identity, place attachment, cultural values, and social networks among individuals, which means it is crucial that strategic plans for adaptation to climate change at different policy levels are experienced as relevant by community members. While the studied community has experienced heavy floods in river systems and streams, little evidence of adaptation was observed. Instead, they appeared to adopt coping strategies. Landowners may have limited incentives to adapt to climate change due to contraproductive policy measures such as economic compensation for direct losses without requiring improved practices. Effective adaptation to climate change on the local level is likely to require making compensation mechanisms contingent upon landowners showing willingness to change from coping to adaptive practices, as well as a contextualized approach integrating local and scientific forms of knowledge.  相似文献