People On the Move: Rural–Urban Interactions in Sarawak – By Ryoji Soda     

Danny G. Tan 《Singapore journal of tropical geography》2009,30(1):143-144

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Uncertainties in global warming science and near-term emission policies     

L. D. Danny Harvey 《Climate Policy》2013,13(5):573-584

Abstract

It is argued here that stringent, early emission reductions are necessary in order to minimize ‘dangerous anthropogenic interference in the climate system’ (DAI), the stated Objective of Article 2 of the UNFCCC (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change). Given probability distribution functions (pdfs) for climate sensitivity and the temperature threshold for harm consistent with currently available evidence, and accepting a 10% risk of unacceptable damage as the threshold for ‘danger’, it is not possible to avoid DAI. Having adopted a precautionary approach in setting emission trajectories, the possibility arises that future resolution of uncertainties concerning climate sensitivity and the harm threshold may show the climate sensitivity to be low (1–2 K) and the harm threshold high (2 K rather than 1 K). Using a simple coupled climate-carbon cycle model, it is shown that if the climate sensitivity were to be definitively determined to be 2 K in 2020, then the emission reductions achieved by that time and planned for the next two decades are still fully needed. Only if climate sensitivity is very low (1 K) and the harm threshold is high (2 K) would the emissions achieved by 2020 not have been fully necessary. However, this would still lead to changes in ocean chemistry that are likely to be highly detrimental to marine life. Thus, when the full spectrum of impacts is considered, there is no plausible set of assumptions under which stringent near-term emission reductions are rendered unnecessary.  相似文献   

2009年9月印度尼西亚巴东地震     

John McCloskey  Dietrich Lange  Andrew F Bell  左玉玲 《国际地震动态》2010,(8):14-17

2009年9月30日,印度尼西亚巴东市发生7.6级地震。之后,印度尼西亚又接连遭受了几次强震袭击,如2009年12月23日6.1级、2010年3月6日7.1级、2010年4月7日7.8级和2010年5月9日7.4级地震。2010年6月16日一天之内,印度尼西亚又接连发生了3次地震,震级分别为6.3级、7.0级和6.3级。2010年2月,由John McCloskey领军的一个科学家团队就2009年9月巴东地震致函英国《自然—地球科学》杂志(Nature Geoscience),题为:The September 2009 Padang Earthquake。信中提出警告:印度尼西亚苏门答腊沿海地区或将发生引发巨大海啸的强烈地震,其灾害程度足以造成与2004年南亚大海啸相匹敌的惨重伤亡,提醒居民要为更加强烈的地震来袭做好准备。为此,"Nature Geoscience"特发表了一篇社论,题为:Earthquakes off Sumatra(见本期译文"苏门答腊近海地震")。下边是John McCloskey等致"Nature Geoscience"的信函译文。  相似文献   

Crop area mapping in West Africa using landscape stratification of MODIS time series and comparison with existing global land products   总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6  

Elodie Vintrou  Annie DesbrosseAgnès Bégué  Sibiry TraoréChristian Baron  Danny Lo Seen 《International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation》2012,14(1):83-93

In Africa, food security early warning systems use satellite-derived data concerning crop conditions and agricultural production. Such systems can be improved if they are provided with a more reliable estimation of the cultivated area at national scale. This paper evaluates the potential of using time series from the MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer MOD13Q1 (16-day composite of normalized difference vegetation index at 250 m resolution) to extract cultivated areas in the fragmented rural landscapes of Mali. To this end, we first stratified Southern Mali into 13 rural landscapes based on the spatio-temporal variability of NDVI and textural indices, using an object-oriented classification scheme.The accuracy of the resulting map (MODIS_crop) and how it compares with existing coarse-resolution global land products (GLC2000 Africa, GLOBCOVER, MODIS V05 and ECOCLIMAP-II), was then assessed against six crop/non-crop maps derived from SPOT 2.5 m resolution images used as references. For crop areal coverage, the MODIS_crop cultivated map was successful in assessing the overall cultivated area at five out of the six validation sites (less than 6% of the absolute difference), while in terms of crop spatial distribution, the producer accuracy was between 33.1% and 80.8%. This accuracy was linearly correlated with the mean patch size index calculated on the SPOT crop maps (r² = 0.8). Using the Pareto boundary as an accuracy assessment method at the study sites, we showed that (i) 20-40% of the classification crop error was due to the spatial resolution of the MODIS sensor (250 m), and that (ii) compared to MODIS V05, which otherwise performed better than the other existing products, MODIS_crop generally minimized omission-commission errors. A spatial validation of the different products was carried out using SPOT image classifications as reference. In the corresponding error matrices, the fraction of correctly classified pixels for our product was 70%, compared to 58% for MODIS V05, while it ranged between 40% and 51% for the GLC2000, the ECOCLIMAP-II and the GLOBCOVER.  相似文献   

Correction of tree ring stable carbon isotope chronologies for changes in the carbon dioxide content of the atmosphere   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Danny McCarroll  Mary H. Gagen  Iain Robertson  Sietse Los  Risto Jalkanen  John S. Waterhouse 《Geochimica et cosmochimica acta》2009,73(6):1539-114

Tree-ring stable carbon isotope ratios (δ¹³C) often display a decline over the industrial period (post-AD1850) that is only partly explained by changes in the isotopic ratio of carbon dioxide (CO₂) and may represent a response to increased atmospheric concentrations of CO₂ (ca). If this is not addressed, reconstructions using long tree-ring stable isotope chronologies calibrated using the modern period, for which meteorological records are available, may be compromised. We propose a correction procedure that attempts to calculate the δ¹³C values that would have been obtained under pre-industrial conditions. The correction procedure uses nonlinear (loess) regression but the magnitude of the adjustment made is restricted by two logical constraints based on the physiological response of trees: first, that a unit increase in ca cannot result in more than the same unit increase in the internal concentration of CO₂ (ci), and second, that increases in water-use efficiency as a result of an increase in ca are limited to maintaining a constant ci/ca ratio. The first constraint allows retention of a falling trend in δ¹³C, which exceeds that which could logically be attributed to a passive response to rising ca. The second constraint ensures that any increase in δ¹³C, reflecting a change in water-use efficiency beyond maintenance of a constant ci/ca, is not removed. The procedure is tested using ‘pseudoproxies’, to demonstrate the effect of the correction on time-series with different shapes, and data from three sites in Finland and Norway. Two of the time-series retain a significant trend after correction, and in all three cases the correction improves the correlation with local meteorological measurements.  相似文献   

Development of a risk-hedging CO2-emission policy, part II: Risks associated with measures to limit emissions, synthesis, and conclusions     

L. D. Danny Harvey 《Climatic change》1996,34(1):41-71

This paper is Part II of a two-part series in which the risks associated with unrestrained greenhouse-gas emissions, and with measures to limit emissions, are reviewed. A sustained limitation of global CO₂ emissions requires global population stabilization, a reduction in per capita emissions in the developed world, and a limitation of the increase in per capita emissions in the developing world. Reducing or limiting per capita emissions requires a major effort to improve the efficiency with which energy is transformed and used; urban development which minimizes the need for the private automobile and facilitates district heating, cooling, and cogeneration systems; and accelerated development of renewable energy. The following risks associated with these efforts to limit CO₂ emissions are reviewed here: (i) resources might be diverted from other urgent needs; (ii) economic growth might be reduced; (iii) reduction measures might cost more than expected; (iv) early action might cost more than later action; (v) reduction measures might have undesired side effects; (vi) reduction measures might require heavy-handed government intervention; and (vii) reduction measures might not work. With gradual implementation of a diversified portfolio of measures, these risks can be greatly reduced. Net risk is further reduced by the fact that a number of non-climatic benefits would result from measures to limit CO₂ emissions. Based on the review of risks associated with measures to limit emissions here, and the review of the risks associated with unrestrained emissions presented in Part I, it is concluded that a reasonable near-term (20–30 year) risk hedging strategy is one which seeks to stabilize global fossil CO₂ emissions at the present (early 1990's) level. This in turn implies an emission reduction of 26% for industrialized countries as a whole and 40–50% for Canada and the USA if developing country emissions are to increase by no more than 60%, which in itself would require major assistance from the industrialized countries. The effectiveness of global CO₂-emission stabilization in slowing down the buildup of atmospheric CO₂ is enhanced by the fact that the airborne fraction (ratio of annual atmospheric CO₂ increase to total annual anthropogenic emissions) decreases if emissions are stabilized, whereas it increases if emissions continue to grow exponentially. The framework and conclusions presented here are critically compared with so-called optimization frameworks.  相似文献   

Geomorphic controls on contaminant distribution along an ephemeral stream   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Steven L. Reneau  Paul G. Drakos  Danny Katzman  Daniel V. Malmon  Eric V. McDonald  Randall T. Ryti 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2004,29(10):1209-1223

Sediment‐borne contamination in a watershed can be highly variable as a result of ?uvial processes operating over a range of time scales. This study presents a detailed analysis of the distribution of one contaminant along an ephemeral stream after 55 years of sediment transport, deposition, and exchange by ?ash ?oods. Wastewater containing plutonium was discharged into the Pueblo Canyon watershed from 1945 until 1964, and plutonium concentrations in ?uvial deposits vary over ?ve orders of magnitude. These variations can be attributed to three primary factors: time since contaminant releases, particle‐size sorting, and mixing of sediment from different sources. The highest concentrations occur in ?ne‐grained sediment deposits near the source that date to the period of ef?uent releases, and concentrations are lower in younger deposits, in coarser‐grained deposits, and in deposits farther downstream. The spatial distribution of plutonium is strongly affected by longitudinal variations in the size of sediment deposits of different age. A major aggradation–degradation cycle in the lower canyon overlapped with the period of active ef?uent releases, and a signi?cant portion of the total plutonium inventory is contained within large coarse‐grained deposits below ?ll terraces that post‐date 1945. The spatial pattern of contamination is thus determined by the speci?c geomorphic history of the watershed, in addition to processes of mixing and sorting during transport that occur in all ?uvial systems. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Rock-weathering by the lichen Lecidea auriculata in an arctic alpine environment   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Danny McCarroll  Heather Viles 《地球表面变化过程与地形》1995,20(3):199-206

Scanning electron microscopy reveals that Lecidea auriculata penetrates rock surfaces, detaching, incorporating and expelling flakes of rock. Measurements on an age sequence of moraine ridges illustrate changes in the extent and intensity of weathering over time. A minimum rate of surface lowering (0·0012 mm a^?1) is 25 to 50 times faster than weathering due to other processes in the same area. The spatial pattern of weathering is influenced by the narrow ecological range of the species. Surface rocks on dry, exposed sites are probably weathering much more rapidly than those in adjacent damp hollows and beneath snowpatches.  相似文献   

Late-holocene snow-avalanche activity in southern norway: Interpreting lichen size–frequency distributions using an alternative to simulation modelling     

Danny McCarroll  John A. Matthews  Richard A. Shakesby 《地球表面变化过程与地形》1995,20(5):465-471

Recent work by McCarroll (1993, 1994) suggests that a new approach to lichenometry can be used to date diachronous surfaces. Size–frequency distributions of largest lichens obtained from the diachronous surfaces of avalanche boulder ramparts comprise two elements: an equilibrium population growing on boulders deposited throughout the Holocene, and overlapping populations growing on groups of boulders deposited by events during the last 300 years. In this study, almost 10000 lichens were measured on two groups of closely similar ramparts. The number of very large lichens is used to predict the form of the equilibrium distribution, which is then removed, leaving a corrected distribution which reflects the age-frequency of surface boulders deposited during the ‘Little Ice Age’. The results confirm that maximum avalanche activity occurred during the 19th century, but a minor peak at one site suggests that avalanche activity was enhanced during the mid-18th century.  相似文献   

Do we really want to get where we are going? An activist's appraisal of the trade and environment debate since Rio     

Danny Kennedy 《The Australian geographer》1995,26(1):11-16

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