A proposal for a new scenario framework to support research and assessment in different climate research communities   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Detlef P. van Vuuren  Keywan Riahi  Richard Moss  Jae Edmonds  Allison Thomson  Nebojsa Nakicenovic  Tom Kram  Frans Berkhout  Rob Swart  Anthony Janetos  Steven K. Rose  Nigel Arnell 《Global Environmental Change》2012,22(1):21-35

In this paper, we propose a scenario framework that could provide a scenario “thread” through the different climate research communities (climate change – vulnerability, impact, and adaptation - and mitigation) in order to support assessment of mitigation and adaptation strategies and climate impacts. The scenario framework is organized around a matrix with two main axes: radiative forcing levels and socio-economic conditions. The radiative forcing levels (and the associated climate signal) are described by the new Representative Concentration Pathways. The second axis, socio-economic developments comprises elements that affect the capacity for mitigation and adaptation, as well as the exposure to climate impacts. The proposed scenarios derived from this framework are limited in number, allow for comparison across various mitigation and adaptation levels, address a range of vulnerability characteristics, provide information across climate forcing and vulnerability states and span a full century time scale. Assessments based on the proposed scenario framework would strengthen cooperation between integrated-assessment modelers, climate modelers and vulnerability, impact and adaptation researchers, and most importantly, facilitate the development of more consistent and comparable research within and across these research communities.  相似文献   

Adaptation in integrated assessment modeling: where do we stand?     

Anthony G. Patt  Detlef P. van Vuuren  Frans Berkhout  Asbjørn Aaheim  Andries F. Hof  Morna Isaac  Reinhard Mechler 《Climatic change》2010,99(3-4):383-402

Adaptation is an important element on the climate change policy agenda. Integrated assessment models, which are key tools to assess climate change policies, have begun to address adaptation, either by including it implicitly in damage cost estimates, or by making it an explicit control variable. We analyze how modelers have chosen to describe adaptation within an integrated framework, and suggest many ways they could improve the treatment of adaptation by considering more of its bottom-up characteristics. Until this happens, we suggest, models may be too optimistic about the net benefits adaptation can provide, and therefore may underestimate the amount of mitigation they judge to be socially optimal. Under some conditions, better modeling of adaptation costs and benefits could have important implications for defining mitigation targets.  相似文献   

Conditional probabilistic estimates of 21st century greenhouse gas emissions based on the storylines of the IPCC-SRES scenarios     

Detlef P. van Vuuren  Bert de Vries  Arthur Beusen  Peter S.C. Heuberger 《Global Environmental Change》2008,18(4):635

The conditional probabilistic scenario analysis combines statistical methods of uncertainty analysis at parameter level with storylines which recognize the deep uncertainty that exists for several underlying trends. The model calculations indicate that cumulative 21st century emissions could range from 800 to 2500 GtC in the absence of climate policy. This range originates partly from the underlying storylines, and partly from the probabilistic analysis. Among the most important parameters contributing to the uncertainty range are uncertainty in income growth, population growth, parameters determining energy demand, oil resources and fuel preferences. The contribution of these factors is also scenario-dependent.  相似文献   

Climate benefits of changing diet   总被引：3，自引：3，他引：0  

Elke Stehfest  Lex Bouwman  Detlef P. van Vuuren  Michel G. J. den Elzen  Bas Eickhout  Pavel Kabat 《Climatic change》2009,95(1-2):83-102

Climate change mitigation policies tend to focus on the energy sector, while the livestock sector receives surprisingly little attention, despite the fact that it accounts for 18% of the greenhouse gas emissions and for 80% of total anthropogenic land use. From a dietary perspective, new insights in the adverse health effects of beef and pork have lead to a revision of meat consumption recommendations. Here, we explored the potential impact of dietary changes on achieving ambitious climate stabilization levels. By using an integrated assessment model, we found a global food transition to less meat, or even a complete switch to plant-based protein food to have a dramatic effect on land use. Up to 2,700 Mha of pasture and 100 Mha of cropland could be abandoned, resulting in a large carbon uptake from regrowing vegetation. Additionally, methane and nitrous oxide emission would be reduced substantially. A global transition to a low meat-diet as recommended for health reasons would reduce the mitigation costs to achieve a 450 ppm CO₂-eq. stabilisation target by about 50% in 2050 compared to the reference case. Dietary changes could therefore not only create substantial benefits for human health and global land use, but can also play an important role in future climate change mitigation policies.  相似文献   

Spatial Patterns of Sea Level Variability Associated with Natural Internal Climate Modes   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Weiqing Han  Gerald A. Meehl  Detlef Stammer  Aixue Hu  Benjamin Hamlington  Jessica Kenigson  Hindumathi Palanisamy  Philip Thompson 《Surveys in Geophysics》2017,38(1):217-250

Sea level rise (SLR) can exert significant stress on highly populated coastal societies and low-lying island countries around the world. Because of this, there is huge societal demand for improved decadal predictions and future projections of SLR, particularly on a local scale along coastlines. Regionally, sea level variations can deviate considerably from the global mean due to various geophysical processes. These include changes of ocean circulations, which partially can be attributed to natural, internal modes of variability in the complex Earth’s climate system. Anthropogenic influence may also contribute to regional sea level variations. Separating the effects of natural climate modes and anthropogenic forcing, however, remains a challenge and requires identification of the imprint of specific climate modes in observed sea level change patterns. In this paper, we review our current state of knowledge about spatial patterns of sea level variability associated with natural climate modes on interannual-to-multidecadal timescales, with particular focus on decadal-to-multidecadal variability. Relevant climate modes and our current state of understanding their associated sea level patterns and driving mechanisms are elaborated separately for the Pacific, the Indian, the Atlantic, and the Arctic and Southern Oceans. We also discuss the issues, challenges and future outlooks for understanding the regional sea level patterns associated with climate modes. Effects of these internal modes have to be taken into account in order to achieve more reliable near-term predictions and future projections of regional SLR.  相似文献   

Climatic control on the growth of gigantic gypsum crystals within hypogenic caves (Naica mine,Mexico)?     

Paolo S. Garofalo  Mattias B. Fricker  Detlef Günther  Paolo Forti  Anna-Maria Mercuri  Mara Loreti  Bruno Capaccioni 《Earth and Planetary Science Letters》2010,289(3-4):560-569

Three hypogenic caves within the Naica mine of Mexico (Cueva de los Cristales — CLC, Ojo de la Reina — OR, and Cueva de las Velas — CLV) host spectacular gypsum crystals up to 11 m in length. These caves are close to another shallow cave of the area (Cueva de las Espadas — CLE), with which they cover a 160 m-deep vertical section of the local drainage basin. Similar to other hypogenic caves, all these caves lack a direct connection with the land surface and should be unrelated with climate.A record of multi-technique fluid inclusion data and pollen spectra from cave and mine gypsum indicates surprisingly that climatic changes occurring at Naica could have controlled fluid composition in these caves, and hence crystal growth. Microthermometry and LA-ICP-Mass Spectrometry of fluid inclusions indicate that the shallow, chemically peculiar, saline fluid (up to 7.7 eq. wt.%NaCl) of CLE could have formed from evaporation, during a dry and hot climatic period. The fluid of the deep caves was instead of low salinity (～ 3.5 eq. wt.% NaCl) and chemically homogeneous, and was poorly affected by evaporation. We propose that mixing of these two fluids, generated at different depths of the Naica drainage basin, determined the stable supersaturation conditions for the gigantic gypsum crystals to grow. Fluid mixing was controlled by the hydraulic communication between CLE and the other deep caves, and must have taken place during cycles of warm-dry and fresh-wet climatic periods, which are known to have occurred in the region. Pollen grains from a 35 ka-old gypsum crystal of CLC corresponds to a fairly homogenous catchment basin made of a mixed broadleaf wet forest, which suggests precipitation during a fresh-wet climatic period and confirms our interpretation of the fluid inclusion data.The unusual combination of geological and geochemical factors of Naica suggests that other hypogenic caves found elsewhere may not host similar crystals. However, this work shows that fluid inclusions and pollen spectra represent a useful tool for cave studies in general, and if used in future studies might be essential to unravel the mechanisms of hypogenic deposition.  相似文献   

How well do integrated assessment models simulate climate change?     

Detlef P. van Vuuren  Jason Lowe  Elke Stehfest  Laila Gohar  Andries F. Hof  Chris Hope  Rachel Warren  Malte Meinshausen  Gian-Kasper Plattner 《Climatic change》2011,104(2):255-285

Integrated assessment models (IAMs) are regularly used to evaluate different policies of future emissions reductions. Since the global costs associated with these policies are immense, it is vital that the uncertainties in IAMs are quantified and understood. We first demonstrate the significant spread in the climate system and carbon cycle components of several contemporary IAMs. We then examine these components in more detail to understand the causes of differences, comparing the results with more complex climate models and earth system models (ESMs), where available. Our results show that in most cases the outcomes of IAMs are within the range of the outcomes of complex models, but differences are large enough to matter for policy advice. There are areas where IAMs would benefit from improvements (e.g. climate sensitivity, inertia in climate response, carbon cycle feedbacks). In some cases, additional climate model experiments are needed to be able to tune some of these improvements. This will require better communication between the IAM and ESM development communities.  相似文献   

Evolution of anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions of air pollutants at global and regional scales during the 1980�C2010 period     

Claire Granier  Bertrand Bessagnet  Tami Bond  Ariela D��Angiola  Hugo Denier van der Gon  Gregory J. Frost  Angelika Heil  Johannes W. Kaiser  Stefan Kinne  Zbigniew Klimont  Silvia Kloster  Jean-Fran?ois Lamarque  Catherine Liousse  Toshihiko Masui  Frederik Meleux  Aude Mieville  Toshimasa Ohara  Jean-Christophe Raut  Keywan Riahi  Martin G. Schultz  Steven J. Smith  Allison Thompson  John van Aardenne  Guido R. van der Werf  Detlef P. van Vuuren 《Climatic change》2011,109(1-2):163-190

Several different inventories of global and regional anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions are assessed for the 1980?C2010 period. The species considered in this study are carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides, sulfur dioxide and black carbon. The inventories considered include the ACCMIP historical emissions developed in support of the simulations for the IPCC AR5 assessment. Emissions for 2005 and 2010 from the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) are also included. Large discrepancies between the global and regional emissions are identified, which shows that there is still no consensus on the best estimates for surface emissions of atmospheric compounds. At the global scale, anthropogenic emissions of CO, NO_x and SO₂ show the best agreement for most years, although agreement does not necessarily mean that uncertainty is low. The agreement is low for BC emissions, particularly in the period prior to 2000. The best consensus is for NO_x emissions for all periods and all regions, except for China, where emissions in 1980 and 1990 need to be better defined. Emissions of CO need better quantification in the USA and India for all periods; in Central Europe, the evolution of emissions during the past two decades needs to be better determined. The agreement between the different SO₂ emissions datasets is rather good for the USA, but better quantification is needed elsewhere, particularly for Central Europe, India and China. The comparisons performed in this study show that the use of RCP8.5 for the extension of the ACCMIP inventory beyond 2000 is reasonable, until more global or regional estimates become available. Concerning biomass burning emissions, most inventories agree within 50?C80%, depending on the year and season. The large differences between biomass burning inventories are due to differences in the estimates of burned areas from the different available products, as well as in the amount of biomass burned.  相似文献   

60Fe–60Ni systematics in the eucrite parent body: A case study of Bouvante and Juvinas     

Ghylaine Quitté  Christopher Latkoczy  Maria Schönbächler  Alex N. Halliday  Detlef Günther 《Geochimica et cosmochimica acta》2011,75(23):7698-7706

Eucrites are basaltic meteorites that cooled rapidly but are in many instances thermally metamorphosed and impact brecciated. The exact timing of these events remains unclear. In this study, Ni isotopic compositions and Fe/Ni elemental ratios are presented for two non-cumulate eucrites, Bouvante and Juvinas, including mineral separates from the latter. The samples are characterized by variable, well-resolved ⁶⁰Ni-excesses consistent with the former presence of live ⁶⁰Fe (t_1/2 = 2.62 Ma) at the time of eucrite crystallization. A significant fraction of Ni with a terrestrial-like composition appears to be surface correlated. This Ni may be the product of terrestrial contamination or was introduced by a chondritic impactor during brecciation. Altogether, the data provide evidence for a complex and probably multi-stage history of Fe and/or Ni redistribution, which impedes the interpretation of the chronological data.  相似文献   

Modal metasomatism in the Kaapvaal craton lithosphere: constraints on timing and genesis from U–Pb zircon dating of metasomatized peridotites and MARID-type xenoliths     

Jürgen Konzett  Richard A. Armstrong  Detlef Günther 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》2000,139(6):704-719

Modal metasomatism in the Kaapvaal craton lithosphere is well documented in upper mantle xenoliths sampled by both group I (mainly late Cretaceous) and group II (mainly early Cretaceous to late Jurassic) kimberlites in the Kimberley area. The metasomatic style is characterized by introduction of K, H and large ion lithophile/high field strength (LIL/HFS) elements into the lithospheric mantle leading to the crystallization of hydrous potassic phases such as phlogopite and/or K-amphibole. Textures indicate that the hydrous phases either replace pre-existing assemblages in peridotites, forming the metasomatized peridotite suite (phlogopite–K-richterite–peridotites: PKPs) or crystallize from K-rich melts, forming the mica–amphibole–rutile–ilmenite–diopside (MARID) suite of xenoliths. These K-rich assemblages become potential low melting source components for alkaline incompatible trace element enriched magmas. The timing of metasomatism and its temporal and possible genetic relation to kimberlite magmatism is poorly constrained because of the rarity of phases in the metasomatic assemblages suitable for precise dating. Here we present precise sensitive high resolution ion microprobe (SHRIMP) U–Pb formation ages of 88 ± 2 (1σ=1 standard deviation) and 82 ± 3 Ma data for zircons from a K-richterite–phlogopite-bearing metasomatized peridotite (PKP) and a MARID xenolith respectively, sampled by a group I kimberlite. Both average PKP and MARID zircon ages are indistinguishable from emplacement ages of group I kimberlites in the Kimberley area dated at 83 ± 4 (2σ) and 84 ± 0.9 Ma. One exceptionally old age spot of 102 ± 5 Ma from a PKP zircon provides evidence for modal metasomatism predating group I kimberlite emplacement by several millions of years with minor resetting of the U–Pb isotopic system of most analyzed PKP zircons to a group I emplacement age. Detailed textural and mineral chemical analysis, including high energy X-ray mapping and analysis of fluid inclusion daughter crystals, indicates a complex reaction history for both PKPs and MARIDs. U–Pb zircon ages from this study combined with literature data and experimentally derived models for MARID formation are used to suggest that MARID-formation is concurrent and genetically related to both group I and II kimberlite magmatism in the Kimberley area. MARID and PKP zircon ages are also consistent with the idea first proposed by Dawson and Smith (Geochim Cosmochim Acta 41: 309–323, 1977) that metasomatized peridotites may form from interaction of hydrous fluids expelled by solidifying MARID-type melts with peridotitic wall rocks. Received: 13 December 1999 / Accepted: 13 April 2000  相似文献