Do recent emission trends imply higher emissions forever?     

Detlef P. van Vuuren  Keywan Riahi 《Climatic change》2008,91(3-4):237-248

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Uncertainty and risk in climate projections for the 21st century: comparing mitigation to non-intervention scenarios     

Lorenzo Tomassini  Reto Knutti  Gian-Kasper Plattner  Detlef P. van Vuuren  Thomas F. Stocker  Richard B. Howarth  Mark E. Borsuk 《Climatic change》2010,103(3-4):399-422

Probabilistic climate projections based on two SRES scenarios, an IMAGE reference scenario and five IMAGE mitigation scenarios (all of them multi-gas scenarios) using the Bern2.5D climate model are calculated. Probability distributions of climate model parameters that are constrained by observations are employed as input for the climate model. The sensitivity of the resulting distributions with respect to prior assumptions on climate sensitivity is then assessed. Due to system inertia, prior assumptions on climate sensitivity play a minor role in the case of temperature projections for the first half of the 21st century, but these assumptions have a considerable influence on the distributions of the projected temperature increase in the year 2100. Upper and lower probabilities for exceeding 2°C by the year 2100 are calculated for the different scenarios. Only the most stringent mitigation measures lead to low probabilities for exceeding the 2°C threshold. This finding is robust with respect to our prior assumptions on climate sensitivity. Further, probability distributions of total present-value damages over the period 2000–2100 for the different scenarios are calculated assuming a wide range of damage cost functions, and the sensitivity of these distributions with respect to the assumed discount rate is investigated. Absolute values of damage costs depend heavily on the chosen damage cost function and discount rate. Nevertheless, some robust conclusions are possible.  相似文献   

What do near-term observations tell us about long-term developments in greenhouse gas emissions?     

Detlef P. van Vuuren  Jae Edmonds  Steven J. Smith  Kate V. Calvin  Joseph Karas  Mikiko Kainuma  Nebojsa Nakicenovic  Keywan Riahi  Bas J. van Ruijven  Rob Swart  Allison Thomson 《Climatic change》2010,103(3-4):635-642

Long-term scenarios developed by integrated assessment models are used in climate research to provide an indication of plausible long-term emissions of greenhouse gases and other radiatively active substances based on developments in the global energy system, land-use and the emissions associated with these systems. The phenomena that determine these long-term developments (several decades or even centuries) are very different than those that operate on a shorter time-scales (a few years). Nevertheless, in the literature, we still often find direct comparisons between short-term observations and long-term developments that do not take into account the differing dynamics over these time scales. In this letter, we discuss some of the differences between the factors that operate in the short term and those that operate in the long term. We use long-term historical emissions trends to show that short-term observations are very poor indicators of long-term future emissions developments. Based on this, we conclude that the performance of long-term scenarios should be evaluated against the appropriate, corresponding long-term variables and trends. The research community may facilitate this by developing appropriate data sets and protocols that can be used to test the performance of long-term scenarios and the models that produce them.  相似文献   

Deglacial land emergence and lateral upper-mantle heterogeneity in the Svalbard Archipelago—II. Extended results for high-resolution load models     

Georg Kaufmann  Detlef Wolf 《Geophysical Journal International》1996,127(1):125-140

In Paper I (Breuer & Wolf 1995), a preliminary interpretation of the postglacial land emergence observed at a restricted set of six locations in the Svalbard Archipelago was given. The study was based on a simple model of the Barents Sea ice sheet and suggested increases in lithosphere thickness and asthenosphere viscosity with increasing distance from the continental margin.
In the present paper, the newly developed high-resolution load model. BARENTS-2, and land-uplift observations from an extended set of 25 locations are used to study further the possibility of resolving lateral heterogeneity in the upper mantle below the northern Barents Sea. A comparison of the calculated and observed uplift values shows that the lithosphere thickness is not well resolved by the observations, although values above 110 km are most common for this parameter. In contrast to this, there are indications of a lateral variation of asthenosphere viscosity. Whereas values in the range 10¹⁸-10²⁰Pas are inferred for locations close to the continental margin, 10²⁰-10²¹ Pa s are suggested further away from the margin.
A study of the sensitivity of the values found for lithosphere thickness and asthenosphere viscosity to modifications of load model BARENTS-2 shows that such modifications can be largely accommodated by appropriate changes in lithosphere thickness, whereas the suggested lateral variation of asthenosphere viscosity is essentially unaffected. An estimate of the influence of the Fennoscandian. ice sheet leads to the conclusion that its neglect results in an underestimation of the thickness of the Barents Sea ice sheet by about 10 per cent.  相似文献   

Note on estimates of the glacial-isostatic decay spectrum for Fennoscandia     

Detlef Wolf 《Geophysical Journal International》1996,127(3):801-805

For more than 30 years, Sauramo's (1958) shoreline diagram of the Fennoscandian uplift has been used in geophysical studies for estimates of the glacial-isostatic decay spectrum in order to infer from it the viscosity stratification in the Earth's mantle below Fennoscandia. The intent of the present note is to point out that more recent geological studies suggest that Sauramo's shoreline diagram is an incorrect representation of the Fennoscandian uplift. Geophysical interpretations based on the diagram may therefore require revision.  相似文献   

International geopolitical research colloquium on Euro-Atlantic security — a fresh start     

K. -A. Boesler  Detlef Herold  C. George 《GeoJournal》1995,37(2):286-286

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Experimentelle Untersuchung der Metamorphose von kieselig dolomitischen Sedimenten     

Paul Metz  Detlef Puhan 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》1970,26(4):302-314

During an experimental investigation of the metamorphism of siliceous dolomites the equilibrium data of the heterogeneous bivariant reaction 1 $$3{\text{ dolomite + 4 quartz + 1 H}}_{\text{2}} O \rightleftharpoons + 3 calcite + 3 CO_2 $$ were determined for the total fluid pressures of 1,000, 3,000 and 5,000 bars. The equilibrium conditions were found by experiments in which dolomite, quartz and water react to form talc, calcite and CO₂, as well as by experiments with reversible reaction direction. Results are shown on the temperature- \(X_{CO_2 } \) -diagram of Fig. 3. The temperature of formation of talc and calcite depends to a considerable extent on the composition of the CO₂-H₂O-gas phase; this can be read straight off the isobaric (P _f =const.) equilibrium curves in Fig. 3. In addition a strong dependence of the equilibrium temperature on the total pressure P _f was established (see Fig. 5). At a total gas pressure of 1,000 bars dolomite and quartz can react, according to the composition of the CO₂-H₂O-gas phase, to talc and calcite over the whole of the temperature range between about 350° and 490° C. This indicates that at low pressures the formation of talc and calcite takes place in the field of the albite-epidote-hornfels facies. At a pressure of 3,000 bars dolomite and quartz are stable up to about 550° C if the fluid phase is rich in carbon dioxide and correspondingly poor in water. Thus, this paragenesis can occur up to the stability field of staurolite [see annotation (5)] if the partial pressure of CO₂ is large. At the higher total gas pressure of 5,000 bars dolomite and quartz react even at medium CO₂-concentrations only at about 580° C to give talc and calcite. Therefore it is expected that in regional metamorphism at about 5,000 bars pressure or more the paragenesis dolomite plus quartz exists up to and within the stability field of staurolite and reacts only here to form talc and calcite after reaction (1) or tremolite and calcite after the following reaction (2)¹: $$5 dolomite + 8 quartz + 1 H_2 O \rightleftharpoons 1 tremolite + 3 calcite + 7 CO_2 $$ . The exact physico-chemical conditions under which dolomite, quartz and water react on the one hand to form talc, calcite and CO₂, and on the other hand to form tremolite, calcite and carbon dioxide, will be discussed later when our experimental investigations on the formation of tremolite are completed. First results were already published in a short note by Metz, Puhan and Winkler (1968).  相似文献   

Thallium isotope composition of the upper continental crust and rivers—An investigation of the continental sources of dissolved marine thallium     

Sune G. Nielsen  Mark Rehkämper  Per Andersson  Peter W. Swarzenski  Detlef Günther 《Geochimica et cosmochimica acta》2005,69(8):2007-2019

The thallium (Tl) concentrations and isotope compositions of various river and estuarine waters, suspended riverine particulates and loess have been determined. These data are used to evaluate whether weathering reactions are associated with significant Tl isotope fractionation and to estimate the average Tl isotope composition of the upper continental crust as well as the mean Tl concentration and isotope composition of river water. Such parameters provide key constraints on the dissolved Tl fluxes to the oceans from rivers and mineral aerosols.The Tl isotope data for loess and suspended riverine detritus are relatively uniform with a mean of ε²⁰⁵Tl = −2.0 ± 0.3 (ε²⁰⁵Tl represents the deviation of the ²⁰⁵Tl/²⁰³Tl isotope ratio of a sample from NIST SRM 997 Tl in parts per 10⁴). For waters from four major and eight smaller rivers, the majority were found to have Tl concentrations between 1 and 7 ng/kg. Most have Tl isotope compositions very similar (within ±1.5 ε²⁰⁵Tl) to that deduced for the upper continental crust, which indicates that no significant Tl isotope fractionation occurs during weathering. Based on these results, it is estimated that rivers have a mean natural Tl concentration and isotope composition of 6 ± 4 ng/kg and ε²⁰⁵Tl = −2.5 ± 1.0, respectively.In the Amazon estuary, both additions and losses of Tl were observed, and these correlate with variations in Fe and Mn contents. The changes in Tl concentrations have much lower amplitudes, however, and are not associated with significant Tl isotope effects. In the Kalix estuary, the Tl concentrations and isotope compositions can be explained by two-component mixing between river water and a high-salinity end member that is enriched in Tl relative to seawater. These results indicate that Tl can display variable behavior in estuarine systems but large additions and losses of Tl were not observed in the present study.  相似文献   

Tellurium isotopic composition of the early solar system—A search for effects resulting from stellar nucleosynthesis, Sn decay, and mass-independent fractionation     

Manuela A. Fehr  Mark Rehkämper  Alex N. Halliday  Uwe Wiechert  Detlef Günther  Jennifer L. Eigenbrode  Douglas Rumble III 《Geochimica et cosmochimica acta》2005,69(21):5099-5112

New precise Te isotope data acquired by multiple collector inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (MC-ICPMS) are presented for selected extraterrestrial and terrestrial materials. Bulk samples of carbonaceous, ordinary and enstatite chondrites as well as the metal and sulfide phases of iron meteorites were analyzed to search for nucleosynthetic isotope anomalies and to find evidence of formerly live ¹²⁶Sn, which decays to ¹²⁶Te with a half-life of 234,500 yr. None of the meteorites show evidence of mass dependent Te isotope fractionations larger than 2‰ for δ^126/128Te. Following internal normalization of the data to ¹²⁵Te/¹²⁸Te, the Te isotope ratios of all analyzed meteorites were found to be identical to a terrestrial standard, within uncertainties. This provides evidence that the regions of the solar disk that were sampled during accretion of the meteorite parent bodies were well mixed and homogeneous on a large scale, with respect to Te isotopes. The data acquired for bulk carbonaceous chondrites indicate that the initial ¹²⁶Sn/¹¹⁸Sn ratio of the solar system was <4 × 10⁻⁵, but this is dependent on the assumption that no redistribution of Sn and Te occurred since the start of the solar system. Five Archean sedimentary sulfides that display both mass dependent and mass-independent isotope effects for S yield internally normalized Te isotope data, which indicate that mass-independent Te isotope effects are absent. The mass dependent fractionations in these samples are constrained to be less than ∼1‰ for δ^126/128Te.  相似文献   

Magnetic anisotropy of calcite at room-temperature     

Volkmar Schmidt  Detlef Günther  Ann M. Hirt 《Tectonophysics》2006,418(1-2):63

The intrinsic room temperature magnetic properties of pure calcite were determined from a series of natural crystals, and they were found to be highly dependent on the chemical composition. In general, dia-, para-, and ferromagnetic components contribute to the magnetic susceptibility and the anisotropy of magnetic susceptibility (AMS). With a combination of magnetic measurements and chemical analysis these three contributions were determined and related to their mineralogical sources. The intrinsic diamagnetic susceptibility of pure calcite is − 4.46 ± 0.16 × 10^− 9 m³/kg (− 12.09 ± 0.5 × 10^− 6 SI) and the susceptibility difference is 4.06 ± 0.03 × 10^− 10 m³/kg (1.10 ± 0.01 × 10^− 6 SI). These diamagnetic properties are easily dominated by other components. The paramagnetic contribution is due to paramagnetic ions in the crystal lattice that substitute for calcium; these are mainly iron and manganese. The measured paramagnetic susceptibility agrees with the values calculated from the known concentration of paramagnetic ions in the crystals according to the Curie law of paramagnetic susceptibility. Substituted iron leads to an increase in the AMS. The paramagnetic susceptibility difference was found to correlate linearly with the iron content for concentrations between 500 and 10,000 ppm. An empirical relation was determined: (k₁ − k₃)^para (kg/m³) = Fe-content (ppm) × (1 ± 0.1) × 10^− 12 (kg/m³/ppm). The maximum susceptibility difference (Δk = k₁ − k₃) was found to be unaffected by iron contents below 100 ppm. Ferromagnetic contributions due to inclusions of ferromagnetic minerals can dominate the susceptibility. They were detected by acquisition of isothermal remanent magnetization (IRM) and their contribution to the AMS was separated by high-field measurements.  相似文献