Probabilistic evaluation of tunnel face stability in spatially random soils using sparse polynomial chaos expansion with global sensitivity analysis     

Qiujing Pan  Daniel Dias 《Acta Geotechnica》2017,12(6):1415-1429

The sparse polynomial chaos expansion is employed to perform a probabilistic analysis of the tunnel face stability in the spatially random soils. A shield tunnel under compressed air is considered which implies that the applied pressure is uniformly distributed on the tunnel face. Two sets of failure mechanisms in the context of the limit analysis theory with respect to the frictional and the purely cohesive soils are used to calculate the required face pressure. In the case of the frictional soils, the cohesion and the friction angle are modeled as two anisotropic cross-correlated lognormal random fields; for the purely cohesive soils, the cohesion and the unit weight are modeled as two anisotropic independent lognormal random fields. The influences of the spatial variability and of the cross-correlation between the cohesion and the friction angle on the probability density function of the required face pressure, on the sensitivity index and on the failure probability are discussed. The obtained results show that the spatial variability has an important influence on the probability density function as well as the failure probability, but it has a negligible impact on the Sobol’s index.  相似文献   

Estimation of the Crustal Bulk Properties Beneath Mainland Portugal from P-Wave Teleseismic Receiver Functions     

Süleyman Dündar  Nuno A. Dias  Graça Silveira  Rainer Kind  Lev Vinnik  Luís Matias  Marcelo Bianchi 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2016,173(6):1949-1970

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Classification of washover dynamics in barrier islands   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Ana Matias   scar Ferreira  Ana Vila-Concejo  Tiago Garcia  Joo Alveirinho Dias 《Geomorphology》2008,97(3-4):655-674

This study systematically classifies washover dynamics with reference to coastal changes along the Ria Formosa barrier islands (Southern Portugal). Identification of washovers using a sequence of 11 sets of aerial photographs dated between 1947 and 2001 allowed a classification to be developed based on: (1) overwash evolution (increasing, decreasing, or constant overwash processes); (2) the mechanisms promoting washover formation (exceptional to infrequent oceanographic conditions, washout processes, structural erosion, inlet dynamics, and human interventions); and (3) the mechanisms promoting washover cessation (berm development, structural erosion, dune development, inlet dynamics, and human interventions). A total of 369 different washovers were observed along the Ria Formosa barriers during the study period, with 209 washovers being formed in various types of dune morphology and 303 being obliterated. The number of washovers was relatively stable from 1947 to 1972, and increased dramatically between 1972 and 1976 probably as a result of the development of immature inlet margins and downdrift starvation. From 1976 to 2001, washover occurrences declined and their spatial dimensions decreased, leading to a decrease in overwash activity over this time. Overall, the dominant formation mechanisms of washovers in the Ria Formosa were inlet dynamics (accounting for 57% of washovers formed) and structural erosion (20%), with human intervention mechanisms accounting for 12%. The cessation of washovers was dominated by dune development (33% of the washovers obliterated) followed by inlet dynamics (24%) and structural erosion (19%), while human intervention mechanisms accounted for 13%. The classification should be of use for the coastal management of barrier systems including the definition of overwash-prone areas and the determination of the relative importance of the mechanisms contributing to washover formation and cessation.  相似文献   

Flood risk assessment in a coastal lagoon under present and future scenarios: Ria de Aveiro case study     

Carina L. Lopes  Fátima L. Alves  João M. Dias 《Natural Hazards》2017,86(3):1307-1332

Iranian strong motion records as well as detailed conditions of their instrument sites and the characteristics of their causative seismic sources are compiled and processed. The dataset consists of 2286 three-component records from 461 Iranian earthquakes with at least two high-quality records having moment magnitude from 3.9 to 7.3. These records are about 20% of the Iranian database and are suitable for seismic hazard analysis and engineering applications. Perhaps for the first time in the literature, the distance to the surface projection of the fault is reported for a great number of records corresponding to earthquakes with M > 6.0. The raw accelerations are processed using the wavelet de-noising method. Having corrected and filtered these raw data, the pseudospectral accelerations are calculated for each of the three components of time series, separately. In addition to the ground motion parameters, a large and comprehensive list of metadata characterizing the recording conditions of each record is also developed. Moreover, careful revision of the characteristics of the earthquakes such as location, magnitude, style of faulting and fault rupture plane geometry, if available, is carried out using the best available information in a scientifically sound manner. Finally, we also focus on special ground motion records including records with peak ground acceleration (PGA) >300 cm/s² and distances less than 30 km. These are “exceptional” records in the Iranian dataset and include less than 2% of the selected dataset.  相似文献   

Daily morphological changes determined by high‐energy events on an embayed beach: a qualitative model     

Cristina Celia Martins  Michel Michaelovitch de Mahiques  João Manuel Alveirinho Dias 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2010,35(4):487-495

This paper examines the daily morphological responses of Sununga Beach, an embayed beach located on the south‐eastern Brazilian coast, to storms in the South Atlantic Ocean. The main mechanisms and timing of beach erosion and accretion, the relationship between wave height and direction, and beach volume changes are considered, to establish a qualitative model for short‐term embayed beach morphological changes. The methodology consisted of daily topographic surveys during the month of May in 2001, 2002, and 2003, using an RTK‐GPS (real‐time kinematics – global positioning system). Weather and wave model results were used to correlate hydrodynamics and beach morphology. The results indicate that the morphodynamics of Sununga Beach are characterized by a process of beach rotation, which occurred more or less clearly during all three surveys. Unlike what has been commonly described in the literature for longer time intervals and alternations of fair and stormy weather, the beach rotation processes on Sununga Beach occurred under conditions of moderate‐to‐high wave energy change (wave heights greater than 2 m). An integrated evaluation of the behaviour of the meteorological aspects, together with beach morphology, enabled us to recognize that extra‐tropical cyclones were the most important agent in remobilizing the beach planform, whether in beach rotation or in cross‐shore erosion. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Forest Fire Alert System: a Geo Web GIS prioritization model considering land susceptibility and hotspots – a case study in the Carajás National Forest,Brazilian Amazon     

Marcelo Roberto Barbosa  Mario Guimarães Buratto  Leonardo Santana de Oliveira Dias  João Paulo Carvalho Raivel  Flavio Lobos Martins 《International journal of geographical information science》2013,27(6):873-901

To increase the monitoring potential of forest fires, an alert classification methodology using satellite-mapped hotspots has been established to help forest managers in the prioritization of which hotspot to be verified in the field, thus potentially improving the distribution of fire-fighting resources. A computer application was developed based on web-distributed geographical information technology whose main function is to interact automatically generated satellite hotspots and risk areas indicated in fire-susceptibility maps and classify them into five alert levels. The location of the hotspots is available continuously every 4 h, and a susceptibility map is produced daily through map algebra algorithm, which uses static (topography, vegetation and land use) and dynamic (weather) variables. Every process runs through automated geoprocessing routines. The methodology was tested during the dry period of 2007 in the Carajás National Forest, in the Brazilian Amazon, within an area of 400,000 ha. It is a critical area constantly threatened by fires caused by invasions and deforestation owing to intense agribusiness advances and mining activities in its surroundings. This situation results in observations of many hotspots inside the study area for the same day and almost the same time period, in places of extreme opposites, demanding complex rapid analysis and hindering the decision of the displacement of fire-fighting teams. Further, a major mining company operates within the National Forest area, maintaining actions of protection as part of its environmental mining license. Results are presented under three aspects: (i) the credibility of the daily susceptibility map (algorithm), which showed strong correlation between areas of greatest risks and the confirmed forest fires; (ii) the reliability of hotspots (alert levels), confirming 71% of fires; (iii) accuracy in the decision of which hotspot to be checked, which revealed the same number of verifications at different alert levels, 82% confirmed alert 5 hotspots (maximum) and only 50% from alert 1 (minimum), resulting in faster fire-fighting actions, minimizing burned areas and, in some cases, allowing fire control before its spreading. Therefore, the methodology demonstrated that GIS routines are able to determine the relationship between a reality-based, interpreted susceptibility map of the area and satellite-generated hotspots, highlighting the ones of highest hazard level through the alert classification, becoming an important tool to help decisions from the fire-control center, especially for high-risk regions. The methodology may be extrapolated to other forested areas.  相似文献   

Moisture transport and intraseasonal variability in the South America monsoon system   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Leila M. V. Carvalho  Ana E. Silva  Charles Jones  Brant Liebmann  Pedro L. Silva Dias  Humberto R. Rocha 《Climate Dynamics》2011,36(9-10):1865-1880

This paper examines moisture transport on intraseasonal timescales over the continent and over the South Atlantic convergence zone (SACZ) during the South America (SA) summer monsoon. Combined Empirical Orthogonal Function analysis (EOFc) of Global Precipitation Climatology Project pentad precipitation, specific humidity, air temperature, zonal and meridional winds at 850?hPa (NCEP/NCAR reanalysis) are performed to identify the large-scale variability of the South America monsoon system and the SACZ. The first EOFc was used as a large-scale index for the South American monsoon (LISAM), whereas the second EOFc characterized the SACZ. LISAM (SACZ) index showed spectral variance on 30?C90 (15?C20) days and were both band filtered (10?C100?days). Intraseasonal wet anomalies were defined when LISAM and SACZ anomalies were above the 75th percentile of their respective distribution. LISAM and SACZ wet events were examined independently of each other and when they occur simultaneously. LISAM wet events were observed with the amplification of wave activity in the Northern Hemisphere and the enhancement of northwesterly cross-equatorial moisture transport over tropical continental SA. Enhanced SACZ was observed with moisture transport from the extratropics of the Southern Hemisphere. Simultaneous LISAM and SACZ wet events are associated with cross-equatorial moisture transport along with moisture transport from Subtropical Southwestern Atlantic.  相似文献   

Patterns of rare earth and other trace elements in different size fractions of clays of Campanian–Maastrichtian deposits from the Portuguese western margin (Aveiro and Taveiro Formations)     

Rosa Marques  M. Isabel Prudêncio  M. Isabel Dias  Fernando Rocha 《Chemie der Erde / Geochemistry》2011,71(4):337-347

The Upper Cretaceous (Campanian–Maastrichtian) Taveiro and Aveiro Formations belong to the northern sector of the Lusitanian basin (Portuguese western margin). The Taveiro Formation was deposited in alluvial fans, including mud flow beds, lakes and sinuous rivers. The Aveiro Formation was deposited in a flat region with low hydrodynamics channels, with the formation of a barrier island-tidal system. The reconstruction of this sedimentary basin may be difficult due to its complex architecture. This work aims a methodology to be used in the reconstruction of Cretaceous sedimentary environments of the Lusitanian basin, through the establishment of geochemical patterns of different size fractions of those deposits. Chemical analysis was performed by instrumental neutron activation analysis (INAA), and the mineralogical composition obtained by X-ray diffractometry (XRD). The whole rock and different size fractions (? ≥ 125 μm, 63–125 μm, 20–63 μm, 2–20 μm and ? < 2 μm) of selected samples were studied aiming the rare earth elements (REE) and other trace elements distribution and its correlation with the grain size and mineralogy.The results obtained for the studied Cretaceous sediments showed that REE patterns and other trace elements distribution in the different size fractions may be used as a tool to differentiate deposits within and between sedimentary formations. Within the Taveiro Formation, REE are concentrated in the silt fractions (20–63 μm and 2–20 μm) of the Reveles deposit, and in the clay size fraction of S. Pedro deposit, which is richer in kaolinite. The 1st transition elements, particularly Zn, are correlated with the presence of smectite in the clay fraction of Reveles deposit. In the sand and silt size fractions (>2 μm) of samples from Taveiro Formation correlations were found between: Ga and 1st transition elements, and phyllosilicates; Cs and mica; and Rb and Ba, and K–feldspars.The Bustos deposit (Aveiro Formation) samples are very fine-grained and with a high proportion of the fine silt fraction where REE are concentrated, especially the heavy ones. Incorporation of MREE, Co and U in carbonates of the coarser fraction appears to occur. The abundances of the 1st transition elements, Ga and As, are correlated with phyllosilicates.Significant differences were found in the trace elements patterns of the various analysed size fractions of the Lusitanian basin of Cretaceous sediments, between and even within formations, which can be used as a methodological approach for a fine paleogeographic reconstruction.  相似文献   

Resilience and brittleness in the ALERTA RIO system: a field study about the decision-making of forecasters     

Giovanni Dolif  Andre Engelbrecht  Alessandro Jatobá  Antônio José Dias da Silva  José Orlando Gomes  Marcos R. S. Borges  Carlos A. Nobre  Paulo Victor R. de Carvalho 《Natural Hazards》2013,65(3):1831-1847

Natural disasters, particularly those triggered by heavy rainfall, may cause major damage and death. However, if an accurate early warning is issued, the damage can be mitigated. In Latin America and Brazil, characteristics of socioeconomic development often lead to a disorderly growth of cities and, consequently, occupation and irregular construction in risk areas. Therefore, forecasts of heavy rainfall, as well as preventative and mitigatory actions based on meteorological data/alerts, are essential to saving lives and minimizing material loss. An event that would have benefited from such actions is that which occurred in the mountainous region of Rio de Janeiro in January 2011, when over 800 people lost their lives. This work describes the first research initiative on resilience engineering domain in systems to forecast heavy rains in Rio de Janeiro. The results indicate important sources of brittleness in the system that supports the work of meteorologists, mainly related to the technical and organizational framework, and suggests that the main source of resilience in dealing with critical situations is the tacit knowledge of experts.  相似文献   

Organochlorine compounds in sharks from the Brazilian coast     

Claudio Eduardo de Azevedo e Silva  Adriana de Cássia Lima Dias  José Lailson-Brito  Jean Remy Daveé Guimarães 《Marine pollution bulletin》2009,58(2):294-298

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