A study of the connection between tropical cyclone track and intensity errors in the WRF model     

Du Duc Tien  Thanh Ngo-Duc  Hoang Thi Mai  Chanh Kieu 《Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics》2013,122(1-2):55-64

This study examines the dependence of the tropical cyclone (TC) intensity errors on the track errors in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARW) model. By using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction global final analysis as the initial and boundary conditions for cloud-resolving simulations of TC cases that have small track errors, it is found that the 2- and 3-day intensity errors in the North Atlantic basin can be reduced to 15 and 19 % when the track errors decrease to 55 and 76 %, respectively, whereas the 1-day intensity error shows no significant reduction despite more than 30 % decrease of the 1-day track error. For the North-Western Pacific basin, the percentage of intensity reduction is somewhat similar with the 2- and 3-day intensity errors improved by about 15 and 19 %, respectively. This suggests that future improvement of the TC track forecast skill in the WRF-ARW model will be beneficial to the intensity forecast. However, the substantially smaller percentages of intensity improvement than those of the track error improvement indicate that ambient environment tends to play a less important role in determining the TC intensity as compared to other factors related to the vortex initialization or physics representations in the WRF-ARW model.  相似文献   

Spatial Prediction of Rainfall-Induced Landslides Using Aggregating One-Dependence Estimators Classifier     

Binh Thai Pham  Indra Prakash  Abolfazl Jaafari  Dieu Tien Bui 《Journal of the Indian Society of Remote Sensing》2018,46(9):1457-1470

In this study, the spatial prediction of rainfall-induced landslides at the Pauri Gahwal area, Uttarakhand, India has been done using Aggregating One-Dependence Estimators (AODE) classifier which has not been applied earlier for landslide problems. Historical landslide locations have been collated with a set of influencing factors for landslide spatial analysis. The performance of the AODE model has been assessed using statistical analyzing methods and receiver operating characteristic curve technique. The predictive capability of the AODE model has also been compared with other popular landslide models namely Support Vector Machines (SVM), Radial Basis Function Neural Network (ANN-RBF), Logistic Regression (LR), and Naïve Bayes (NB). The result of analysis illustrates that the AODE model has highest predictability, followed by the SVM model, the ANN-RBF model, the LR model, and the NB model, respectively. Thus AODE is a promising method for the development of better landslide susceptibility map for proper landslide hazard management.  相似文献   

Investigating the impacts of typhoon-induced floods on the agriculture in the central region of Vietnam by using hydrological models and satellite data     

Nga Thi Thanh Pham  Quang Hong Nguyen  Anh Duc Ngo  Hang Thi Thu Le  Cong Tien Nguyen 《Natural Hazards》2018,92(1):189-204

Flooding associated with landing tropical cyclones (TCs) is one of the major natural hazards in the coastal region of Vietnam. Annually, approximately 5 or 6 TCs make landfall in Vietnam, bringing heavy rains and inducing flooding, particularly to the central coastal region because of its topography and geographic configuration. This study focuses on the modelling of typhoon-induced floods that have resulted in widespread damage to agriculture over the central Thua Thien Hue Province of Vietnam by coupling two well-known hydrological models, KINEROS2 and HEC-RAS (Daniel et al. in Open Hydrol J 5(1), 2011), and using GSMaP (Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation) data as the satellite rainfall input. Landsat imagery and GIS are also used for mapping and analysing the inundated areas. The discharge and water level from the KINEROS2 and HEC-RAS models displayed acceptable results for the floods modelled from three selected typhoons; both the Nash–Sutcliffe simulation efficiency coefficient (NSE) and the coefficient of determination (R²) were greater than 0.6. The simulated inundation maps of these typhoon-induced floods were compared with those extracted from the Landsat imagery to assess consistency. The result revealed a similar spatial extension of the inundated agricultural areas. This information, together with the forecasted TC movements and associated rainfalls, will be helpful to plan methods for mitigating potential typhoon-induced flooding and damage, particularly damage to agricultural regions.  相似文献   

Formation process of two massive dams following rainfall-induced deep-seated rapid landslide failures in the Kii Peninsula of Japan     

Pham Van Tien  Kyoji Sassa  Kaoru Takara  Hiroshi Fukuoka  Khang Dang  Tatsuya Shibasaki  Nguyen Duc Ha  Hendy Setiawan  Doan Huy Loi 《Landslides》2018,15(9):1761-1778

Extreme heavy rainfall due to Typhoon Talas on September 2–4, 2011 in the Kii Peninsula, Japan, triggered numerous floods and landslides. This study investigates the mechanism and the entire process of rainfall-induced deep-seated landslides forming two massive dams in the Kuridaira and Akatani valleys, respectively. The mechanism of the rapid deep-seated landslides is examined through a series of laboratory experiments on samples from sliding surfaces by using undrained high-stress dynamic-loading ring-shear apparatus. The test results indicate that the failure of samples is triggered by excess pore water pressure generation under a shear displacement from 2 to 7 mm with a pore pressure ratio ranging from 0.33 to 0.37. The rapid movement of landslides is mainly attributed to high mobility due to the liquefaction behavior of both sandstone-rich and shale samples. Geomorphic settings and landslide mobility are major contributing factors to the dam formation. Additionally, shear displacement control tests show that a certain amount of shear displacement between 2 and 7 mm along the sliding surfaces of the gravitationally deformed slopes might have led to the failures. Importantly, computer simulation with LS-RAPID software using input parameters obtained from physical experiments is employed to interpret the entire formation process of the abovementioned two landslide dams. The simulation results are examined in accordance with the observed on-site geomorphic features and recorded data to explain the possibility of sliding processes. The results further point out that local failures are initiated from the lower middle part of the landslide bodies where the geological boundary exists. This condition most probably influences the landslide initiation in the two case studies. This research is therefore helpful for hazard assessment of slopes that are susceptible to deep-seated landslides and other sequential processes in areas with geology and geomorphology similar to that of the Kii Peninsula.  相似文献   

Geoheritage values in the Cat Ba islands, Vietnam     

Ta Hoa Phuong  Nguyen Huu Cu  Tran Duc Thanh  Bui Van Dong 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2013,70(2):543-548

Geological wonders have been generally known as natural wonderful products. Resulted from geological processes, geological wonders are diverse in size that have geoheritage values that should be protected from damaging of substance, form and natural development. In a large scale, geological wonders can be geoheritage areas, containing several geodiversity elements that are geologically important or in a smaller scale, they can be geosites of heritage values (or geoheritage sites). In the delimitation of areas, having geoheritage values and the establishment of geoparks, the first thing is to recognise them as geosites and geoheritage areas that indicate great geological values. Besides the Ha Long bay, the world natural heritage with its outstanding aesthetic and geological values, the Cat Ba islands are typical and grandeur karst landscapes formed in tropical condition. Based on the geodiversity elements with their own geoheritage values on aesthetics, uniqueness and grandeur in the Cat Ba islands, the authors have recognised three geoheritage areas: the south cape of the Cat Ba embayment, Tung Gau (shelter), and the Lan Ha bay. Sites where Brachiopods, Crinoids and Tetracorals are exposed on the way through the island are considered as palaeontological geosites. The folds of limestone layers in the northern part of Cat Co 3 beach, with typical turbidite structures in carbonate formations are considered as a lithological geosite. The Devonian-Carboniferous boundary near the Cat Co 3 beach is regarded as a stratigraphical geosite while Que Kem and Turtle islands, etc. are considered as geomorphological geosites.  相似文献   

Multi-hazard assessment using machine learning and remote sensing in the North Central region of Vietnam     

Huu Duy Nguyen  Dinh-Kha Dang  Quang-Thanh Bui  Alexandru-Ionut Petrisor 《Transactions in GIS》2023,27(5):1614-1640

Natural hazards constitute a diverse category and are unevenly distributed in time and space. This hinders predictive efforts, leading to significant impacts on human life and economies. Multi-hazard prediction is vital for any natural hazard risk management plan. The main objective of this study was the development of a multi-hazard susceptibility mapping framework, by combining two natural hazards—flooding and landslides—in the North Central region of Vietnam. This was accomplished using support vector machines, random forest, and AdaBoost. The input data consisted of 4591 flood points, 1315 landslide points, and 13 conditioning factors, split into training (70%), and testing (30%) datasets. The accuracy of the models' predictions was evaluated using the statistical indices root mean square error, area under curve (AUC), mean absolute error, and coefficient of determination. All proposed models were good at predicting multi-hazard susceptibility, with AUC values over 0.95. Among them, the AUC value for the support vector machine model was 0.98 and 0.99 for landslide and flood, respectively. For the random forest model, these values were 0.98 and 0.98, and for AdaBoost, they were 0.99 and 0.99. The multi-hazard maps were built by combining the landslide and flood susceptibility maps. The results showed that approximately 60% of the study area was affected by landslides, 30% by flood, and 8% by both hazards. These results illustrate how North Central is one of the regions of Vietnam that is most severely affected by natural hazards, particularly flooding, and landslides. The proposed models adapt to evaluate multi-hazard susceptibility at different scales, although expert intervention is also required, to optimize the algorithms. Multi-hazard maps can provide a valuable point of reference for decision makers in sustainable land-use planning and infrastructure development in regions faced with multiple hazards, and to prevent and reduce more effectively the frequency of floods and landslides and their damage to human life and property.  相似文献   

Understanding spatial variations of malaria in Vietnam using remotely sensed data integrated into GIS and machine learning classifiers     

Quang-Thanh Bui  Quoc-Huy Nguyen  Van Manh Pham  Minh Hai Pham  Anh Tuan Tran 《国际地球制图》2013,28(12):1300-1314

Abstract

This study examines the potentials of remotely sensed data, GIS and some machine learning classifiers and ensemble techniques in the investigation of the non-linear relationship between malaria occurrences and socio-physical conditions in the Dak Nong province of Viet Nam. Accuracy assessment was determined with Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve and pair t-test. The results showed that the area under ROC of Random Subspace ensemble model performed better than the other models based on statistical indicators. Comparing pair t-test with Area Under Curve values showed a slight difference of about 1%. Therefore ensemble techniques had significantly improved the performance of the base classifier. However, the performances might vary according to geographic locations. It is concluded that the machine learning classifiers combined with remotely sensed data and GIS is promising for malaria vulnerability mapping, and the derived maps can be used as a fundamental basis for programmes on spatial disease control.  相似文献   

Analysis of snowmelt model for flood forecast for water in arid zone: case of Tarim River in Northwest China   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Mupenzi Jean de la Paix  Li Lanhai  Ge Jiwen  Habumugisha Jean de Dieu  Nzayisenga Theoneste 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2012,66(5):1423-1429

Field studies were carried out in Tarim River Basin, Northwest China for analysis of snowmelt model for flood forecast for a river in arid zone. Snow is a major source for water availability in arid zone of Northwest China where 50% of snow cover withdrew by sublimation during dry and cold climatic condition. The analysis of weekly forecast of daily discharges was helped by the temperature index model, ARIMA model for temperature and flow, D-IUH runoff model and D-IUH model estimation where the temperature forecast was used as driving variable; the numerical simulations were carried out using SUSA^® software for testing the sensitivity of the D-IUH to the input values of the parameter and an analysis of the forecast results against the set of input parameters resulted in a determination coefficient R ² = 0.5. The standard deviation was 3.28 and the mean for the Tarim River was 5.37 (mm d^?1) implying that the forecasted data is in strong agreement with the observed data. The combination of methods is better useful for calculation in order to avoid errors of appreciation.  相似文献   

Land use/cover changes in the war-ravaged Jaffna Peninsula, Sri Lanka, 1984–early 2004     

K. Suthakar  Elisabeth N. Bui 《Singapore journal of tropical geography》2008,29(2):205-220

Temporal and spatial information on land use/cover is a prerequisite for effective planning decisions in the context of social and economic development. Satellite remote sensing data have become increasingly important in the study of land use/cover changes. This paper uses multitemporal satellite data to measure and spatially characterize land use/cover changes in the Jaffna Peninsula, northern Sri Lanka over the two decades from 1984 to early 2004 in terms of potential drivers. Over this period, the Jaffna Peninsula has been impacted severely by armed conflict between the government of Sri Lanka and the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam. A postclassification method is used to compare land use/cover classes from satellite images using Geographical Information Systems (GIS) to analyze the spatial pattern of land use/cover changes over the study period. Results indicate that the land use/cover pattern has been very dynamic since early the 1980s, showing a remarkable decrease in agricultural land use and concomitant increase in non-agricultural land uses. The ethnic conflict and its consequences, particularly large-scale population migrations, have been the main driving forces for such land use/cover changes in the Jaffna Peninsula. The results of this study are not only important in aiding efforts to reconstruct this area after decades of physical and socioeconomic devastation, but should also prompt similarly urgent studies in other inaccessible war-torn areas of the world.  相似文献   

Experimental evidence of the double-porosity effects in geomaterials     

Tien Dung Tran Ngoc  Jolanta Lewandowska  Henri Bertin 《Acta Geophysica》2014,62(3):642-655

Double-porosity is an important characteristic of microstructure in a large range of geomaterials. It designs porous media with connected fissures/fractures or aggregated soils. The origin of double-porosity can be natural or/and it can result from mechanical, chemical or biological damage. The presence of double-porosity can significantly affect the behaviour of geomaterials. In this paper we provide an experimental evidence of the double-porosity effects by performing laboratory experiments. Series of tracer dispersion experiments (in saturated and unsaturated steady-state water flow conditions) in a physical model of double-porosity geomaterial were carried out. For the comparative purposes, experiments of the same type were also performed in a singleporosity model medium. The results clearly showed that the double-porosity microstructure leads to the non-Fickian behaviour of the tracer (early breakthrough and long tail) in both saturated and unsaturated cases.  相似文献